Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India

Present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of annual, monthly and seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures (t(max), t(min)) in India. Recent trends in annual, monthly, winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon extreme temperatures (t(max), t(min)) have been analyzed for three time slots viz. 1901-2003,1948-2003 and 1970-2003. For this purpose, time series of extreme temperatures of India as a whole and seven homogeneous regions, viz. Western Himalaya (WH), Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE), North Central (NC), East coast (EC), West coast (WC) and Interior Peninsula (IP) are considered. Rigorous trend detection analysis has been exercised using variety of non-parametric methods which consider the effect of serial correlation during analysis. During the last three decades minimum temperature trend is present in All India as well as in all temperature homogeneous regions of India either at annual or at any seasonal level (winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon). Results agree with the earlier observation that the trend in minimum temperature is significant in the last three decades over India (Kothawale et al., 2010). Sequential MK test reveals that most of the trend both in maximum and minimum temperature began after 1970 either in annual or seasonal levels. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the assessment of time-shift variations from backscattered ultrasound for large temperature changes in biological phantoms

This work reports the assessment of time-shifts (TS) from backscattered ultrasound (BSU) signals when large temperature variations (up to 15 degrees C) were induced in a gel-based phantom. The results showed that during cooling temperature is linear with TS at a rate of approximately 74 ns/degrees C. However during a complete heating/cooling cycle, the relation is highly non-linear. This can be explained by the fact that during cooling the temperature distribution is more uniform. Another problem to report is that TS is very sensitive to external movements.

What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?

During the 20th century, solar activity increased in magnitude to a so-called grand maximum. It is probable that this high level of solar activity is at or near its end. It is of great interest whether any future reduction in solar activity could have a significant impact on climate that could partially offset the projected anthropogenic warming. Observations and reconstructions of solar activity over the last 9000 years are used as a constraint on possible future variations to produce probability distributions of total solar irradiance over the next 100 years. Using this information, with a simple climate model, we present results of the potential implications for future projections of climate on decadal to multidecadal timescales. Using one of the most recent reconstructions of historic total solar irradiance, the likely reduction in the warming by 2100 is found to be between 0.06 and 0.1 K, a very small fraction of the projected anthropogenic warming. However, if past total solar irradiance variations are larger and climate models substantially underestimate the response to solar variations, then there is a potential for a reduction in solar activity to mitigate a small proportion of the future warming, a scenario we cannot totally rule out. While the Sun is not expected to provide substantial delays in the time to reach critical temperature thresholds, any small delays it might provide are likely to be greater for lower anthropogenic emissions scenarios than for higher-emissions scenarios.

The effect of nonlinearity in CO2 heating rates on the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes

An analysis of the attribution of past and future changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature to anthropogenic forcings is presented. The analysis is an extension of the study of Shepherd and Jonsson (2008) who analyzed chemistry-climate simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) and attributed both past and future changes to changes in the external forcings, i.e. the abundances of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and well-mixed greenhouse gases. The current study is based on a new CMAM dataset and includes two important changes. First, we account for the nonlinear radiative response to changes in CO2. It is shown that over centennial time scales the radiative response in the upper stratosphere to CO2 changes is significantly nonlinear and that failure to account for this effect leads to a significant error in the attribution. To our knowledge this nonlinearity has not been considered before in attribution analysis, including multiple linear regression studies. For the regression analysis presented here the nonlinearity was taken into account by using CO2 heating rate, rather than CO2 abundance, as the explanatory variable. This approach yields considerable corrections to the results of the previous study and can be recommended to other researchers. Second, an error in the way the CO2 forcing changes are implemented in the CMAM was corrected, which significantly affects the results for the recent past. As the radiation scheme, based on Fomichev et al. (1998), is used in several other models we provide some description of the problem and how it was fixed.

On the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes to changes in ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases

The vertical profile of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes has traditionally represented an important diagnostic for the attribution of the cooling effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO2 increases. However, CO2-induced cooling alters ozone abundance by perturbing ozone chemistry, thereby coupling the stratospheric ozone and temperature responses to changes in CO2 and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Here we untangle the ozone-temperature coupling and show that the attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes to CO2 and ODS changes (which are the true anthropogenic forcing agents) can be quite different from the traditional attribution to CO2 and ozone changes. The significance of these effects is quantified empirically using simulations from a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model. The results confirm the essential validity of the traditional approach in attributing changes during the past period of rapid ODS increases, although we find that about 10% of the upper stratospheric ozone decrease from ODS increases over the period 1975–1995 was offset by the increase in CO2, and the CO2-induced cooling in the upper stratosphere has been somewhat overestimated. When considering ozone recovery, however, the ozone-temperature coupling is a first-order effect; fully 2/5 of the upper stratospheric ozone increase projected to occur from 2010–2040 is attributable to CO2 increases. Thus, it has now become necessary to base attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes on CO2 and ODS changes rather than on CO2 and ozone changes.

Sensitivity of Bolivian seasonally-dry tropical forest to precipitation and temperature changes over glacial-interglacial timescales

We used fossil pollen to investigate the response of the eastern Chiquitano seasonally-dry tropical forest (SDTF), lowland Bolivia, to high-amplitude climate change associated with glacial–interglacial cycles. Changes in the structure, composition and diversity of the past vegetation are compared with palaeoclimate data previously reconstructed from the same record, and these results shed light on the biogeographic history of today’s highly disjunct blocks of SDTF across South America. We demonstrate that lower glacial temperatures limited tropical forest in the Chiquitanía region, and suggest that SDTF was absent or restricted at latitudes below 17°S, the proposed location of the majority of the hypothesized ‘Pleistocene dry forest arc’ (PDFA). At 19500 yrs b.p., warming supported the establishment of a floristically-distinct SDTF, which showed little change throughout the glacial–Holocene transition, despite a shift to significantly wetter conditions beginning ca. 12500–12200 yrs b.p. Anadenanthera colubrina, a key SDTF taxon, arrived at 10000 yrs b.p., which coincides with the onset of drought associated with an extended dry season. Lasting until 3000 yrs b.p., Holocene drought caused a floristic shift to more drought-tolerant taxa and a reduction in α-diversity (shown by declining palynological richness), but closed-canopy forest was maintained throughout. In contrast to the PDFA, the modern distribution of SDTF most likely represents the greatest spatial coverage of these forests in southern South America since glacial times. We find that temperature is a key climatic control upon the distribution of lowland South American SDTF over glacial-interglacial timescales, and seasonality of rainfall exerts a strong control on their floristic composition.

Temperature Changes in Gutta-Percha and Resilon Cones Induced by a Thermomechanical Compaction Technique

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Tribute to R.G. Boutilier: Skin colour and body temperature changes in basking Bokermannohyla alvarengai (Bokermann 1956)

In amphibians solar basking far from water sources is relatively uncommon since the highly permeable amphibian skin does not represent a significant barrier to the accompanying risk of losing water by evaporation. A South American frog, Bokermannohyla alvarengai (Bokermann 1956), however, spends a significant amount of the day exposed to full sun and relatively high temperatures. The means by which this frog copes with potentially high rates of evaporative water loss and high body temperatures are unknown. Thus, in this study, skin colour changes, body surface temperature, and evaporative water loss rates were examined under a mixture of field and laboratory conditions to ascertain whether changes in skin reflectivity play an important role in this animal's thermal and hydric balance. Field data demonstrated a tight correlation between the lightness of skin colour and frog temperature, with lighter frogs being captured possessing higher body temperatures. Laboratory experiments supported this relationship, revealing that frogs kept in the dark or at lower temperatures (20 degrees C) had darker skin colours, whereas frogs kept in the light or higher temperatures (30 degrees C) had skin colours of a lighter hue. Light exhibited a stronger influence on skin colour than temperature alone, suggesting that colour change is triggered by the increase in incident solar energy and in anticipation of changes in body temperature. This conclusion is corroborated by the observation that cold, darkly coloured frogs placed in the sun rapidly became lighter in colour during the initial warming up period (over the first 5 min), after which they warmed up more slowly and underwent a further, albeit slower, lightening of skin colour. Surprisingly, despite its natural disposition to bask in the sun, this species does not possess a 'waterproof' skin, since its rates of evaporative water loss were not dissimilar from many hylid species that live in arboreal or semi-aquatic environments. The natural history of B. alvarengai is largely unknown and, therefore, it is likely that the herein reported colour change and basking behaviour represent a complex interaction between thermoregulation and water balance with other ecologically relevant functions, such as crypsis.

The role of allergic rhinitis in nasal responses to sudden temperature changes

Background: Air conditioning-induced rhinitis in allergic individuals is a common epidemiologic finding, but its physiopathology,is still controversial. The aim of this study was to describe and compare the effects of experimental air conditioning temperature changes on the nasal mucosa of individuals with persistent allergic rhinitis compared with a control group.Methods: A case-control challenge study was performed in a laboratory of thermal comfort with experimental twin challenge chambers set at a 12 C difference in temperature. A group of 32 patients with persistent allergic rhinitis and a group of 16 control subjects were exposed for 30 minutes, 3 times alternately in each chamber. Nasal symptom scores were recorded and nasal samples collected before, immediately after, and 24 and 48 hours after the challenge.Results: the rhinitis group showed a higher symptom score, epithelial shedding, percentage of eosinophils, total inflammatory cells, leukotriene C-4, eosinophil cationic protein, albumin, and tryptase levels compared with controls. There was also a significant increase in symptom score, total cells recovered, percentage of eosinophils, epithelial shedding, albumin, myeloperoxidase, and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1 in both groups compared with baseline levels.Conclusion: Sudden temperature changes led to a more pronounced inflammatory nasal response in the rhinitis group with the recruitment and activation of eosinophils.Clinical implications: Persistent allergic rhinitis is a risk factor for developing sudden temperature change-related rhinitis even in the absence of allergen exposure.