The names in Spain are mainly not in vain: Intergenerational mobility and the informational content of surnames

The paper presents a (genetic) model of the joint distribution of surnames and income. It shows that we can infer how important background is by looking at how informative surnames are. Extensions of the model allow for the possibility of assortative mating, and the introduction of ethnic differences in the income process (due to discrimination or any other reason).

Intergenerational Mobility and the Informative Content of Surnames

We propose a new methodology for measuring intergenerational mobility in economic wellbeing. Our method is based on the joint distribution of surnames and economic outcomes. It circumvents the need for intergenerational panel data, a long-standing stumbling block for understanding mobility. A single cross-sectional dataset is su cient. Our main idea is simple. If `inheritance' is important for economic outcomes, then rare surnames should predict economic outcomes in the cross-section. This is because rare surnames are indicative of familial linkages. Of course, if the number of rare surnames is small, this won't work. But rare surnames are abundant in the highly-skewed nature of surname distributions from most Western societies. We develop a model that articulates this idea and shows that the more important is inheritance, the more informative will be surnames. This result is robust to a variety of di erent assumptions about fertility and mating. We apply our method using the 2001 census from Catalonia, a large region of Spain. We use educational attainment as a proxy for overall economic well-being. Our main nding is that mobility has decreased among the di erent generations of the 20th century. A complementary analysis based on sibling correlations con rms our results and provides a robustness check on our method. Our model and our data allow us to examine one possible explanation for the observed decrease in mobility. We nd that the degree of assortative mating has increased over time. Overall, we argue that our method has promise because it can tap the vast mines of census data that are available in a heretofore unexploited manner.

Telomere characterization in the Asteraceae family

Asteraceae or Compositae constitute one of the largest families of the angiosperms, distributed over all continents but in Antarctica, particularly well represented in temperate zones and less frequent in tropical regions. The Asteraceae have been the object of a great deal of attention from all viewpoints for their scientific as well as economic interest. Telomeres sequences are highly conservated at the ends of chromosomes across the eukaryotes. In plants, generally are formed by tandemly repeated sequences named Arabidopsis type but several exceptions have been described. The objective of the present work is to study the telomeric characterization along the whole Asteraceae family and to find, if any, the relationships between these results and the evolutionary history in this family.

Asset pricing with idiosyncratic risk and overlapping generations

A number of existing studies have concluded that risk sharing allocations supported by competitive, incomplete markets equilibria are quantitatively close to first-best. Equilibrium asset prices in these models have been difficult to distinguish from those associated with a complete markets model, the counterfactual features of which have been widely documented. This paper asks if life cycle considerations, in conjunction with persistent idiosyncratic shocks which become more volatile during aggregate downturns, can reconcile the quantitative properties of the competitive asset pricing framework with those of observed asset returns. We begin by arguing that data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics support the plausibility of such a shock process. Our estimates suggest a high degree of persistence as well as a substantial increase in idiosyncratic conditional volatility coincident with periods of low growth in U.S. GNP. When these factors are incorporated in a stationary overlapping generations framework, the implications for the returns on risky assets are substantial. Plausible parameterizations of our economy are able to generate Sharpe ratios which match those observed in U.S. data. Our economy cannot, however, account for the level of variability of stock returns, owing in large part to the specification of its production technology.

Intergenerational mobility and the informative content of surnames

We propose an alternative method for measuring intergenerational mobility. Measurements obtained fromtraditional methods (based on panel data) are scarce, difficult to compare across countries and almost impossible to get across time. In particular, this means that we do not know how intergenerational mobility is correlated with growth, income or the degree of inequality.Our proposal is to measure the informative content of surnames in one census. The more information thesurname has on the income of an individual, the more important is her background in determining her outcomes; and thus, the less mobility there is.The reason is that surnames provide information about family relationships because the distribution ofsurnames is necessarily very skewed. A large percentage of the population is bound to have a very unfrequent surname. For them the partition generated by surnames is very informative on family linkages.First, we develop a model whose endogenous variable is the joint distribution of surnames and income.There, we explore the relationship between mobility and the informative content of surnames. We allow for assortative mating to be a determinant of both.Second, we use our methodology to show that in large Spanish region the informative content of surnamesis large and consistent with the model. We also show that it has increased over time, indicating a substantial drop in the degree of mobility. Finally, using the peculiarities of the Spanish surname convention we show that the degree of assortative mating has also increased over time, in such a manner that might explain the decrease in mobility observed.Our method allows us to provide measures of mobility comparable across time. It should also allow us tostudy other issues related to inheritance.