Using a Prediction and Option Generation Paradigm to Understand Decision Making

In many complex and dynamic domains, the ability to generate and then select the appropriate course of action is based on the decision maker's "reading" of the situation--in other words, their ability to assess the situation and predict how it will evolve over the next few seconds. Current theories regarding option generation during the situation assessment and response phases of decision making offer contrasting views on the cognitive mechanisms that support superior performance. The Recognition-Primed Decision-making model (RPD; Klein, 1989) and Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003) suggest that superior decisions are made by generating few options, and then selecting the first option as the final one. Long-Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; Ericsson & Kintsch, 1995), on the other hand, posits that skilled decision makers construct rich, detailed situation models, and that as a result, skilled performers should have the ability to generate more of the available task-relevant options. The main goal of this dissertation was to use these theories about option generation as a way to further the understanding of how police officers anticipate a perpetrator's actions, and make decisions about how to respond, during dynamic law enforcement situations. An additional goal was to gather information that can be used, in the future, to design training based on the anticipation skills, decision strategies, and processes of experienced officers. Two studies were conducted to achieve these goals. Study 1 identified video-based law enforcement scenarios that could be used to discriminate between experienced and less-experienced police officers, in terms of their ability to anticipate the outcome. The discriminating scenarios were used as the stimuli in Study 2; 23 experienced and 26 less-experienced police officers observed temporally-occluded versions of the scenarios, and then completed assessment and response option-generation tasks. The results provided mixed support for the nature of option generation in these situations. Consistent with RPD and TTF, participants typically selected the first-generated option as their final one, and did so during both the assessment and response phases of decision making. Consistent with LTWM theory, participants--regardless of experience level--generated more task-relevant assessment options than task-irrelevant options. However, an expected interaction between experience level and option-relevance was not observed. Collectively, the two studies provide a deeper understanding of how police officers make decisions in dynamic situations. The methods developed and employed in the studies can be used to investigate anticipation and decision making in other critical domains (e.g., nursing, military). The results are discussed in relation to how they can inform future studies of option-generation performance, and how they could be applied to develop training for law enforcement officers.

Assessing Decision Making Skill in Complex and Dynamic Environments Using Representative and Simulated Tasks

Traditional decision making research has often focused on one's ability to choose from a set of prefixed options, ignoring the process by which decision makers generate courses of action (i.e., options) in-situ (Klein, 1993). In complex and dynamic domains, this option generation process is particularly critical to understanding how successful decisions are made (Zsambok & Klein, 1997). When generating response options for oneself to pursue (i.e., during the intervention-phase of decision making) previous research has supported quick and intuitive heuristics, such as the Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003). When generating predictive options for others in the environment (i.e., during the assessment-phase of decision making), previous research has supported the situational-model-building process described by Long Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; see Ward, Ericsson, & Williams, 2013). In the first three experiments, the claims of TTF and LTWM are tested during assessment- and intervention-phase tasks in soccer. To test what other environmental constraints may dictate the use of these cognitive mechanisms, the claims of these models are also tested in the presence and absence of time pressure. In addition to understanding the option generation process, it is important that researchers in complex and dynamic domains also develop tools that can be used by `real-world' professionals. For this reason, three more experiments were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a new online assessment of perceptual-cognitive skill in soccer. This test differentiated between skill groups and predicted performance on a previously established test and predicted option generation behavior. The test also outperformed domain-general cognitive tests, but not a domain-specific knowledge test when predicting skill group membership. Implications for theory and training, and future directions for the development of applied tools are discussed.

The first-year experience in law school: A new beginning?

The first-year experience at university is a "purgatorial zone". There is the shock of the new: navigating a new campus, choosing and enrolling in courses, locating classrooms, finding new friends and establishing new social networks, buying armloads of textbooks, making sense of subject outlines, balancing work and study, completing multiple assignments on time. But there are also the growing pains associated with intellectual development. Not only must first-year students take responsibility for their own learning; they must also accept that there are no "right" or "wrong" answers or "good" or "bad" positions, but judgements they must make and defend through analysis, reasoning and argument.

The First-Year Law Experience: A New Beginning

The first-year experience at university is a "purgatorial zone”. There is the shock of the new: navigating a new campus, choosing and enrolling in courses, locating classrooms, finding new friends and establishing new social networks, buying arm loads of textbooks, making sense of subject outlines, balancing work and study, completing multiple assignments on time. But there are also the growing pains associated with intellectual development. Not only must first-year students take responsibility for their own learning; they must also accept that there are no "right" or "wrong" answers or "good" or "bad" positions, but judgements they must make and defend through analysis, reasoning and argument: ... the student [must] shift from passivity to activity; [university] is no longer an environment in which professors have the sole responsibility to teach but, rather; one in which the student has an equal responsibility to learn. They [need] . .. to becom[e] critical thinkers who are, in the words of Richard Paul and Linda Elder, "self-directed, self-disciplined, self-monitored, and self-corrective".

Proceedings of the first world meeting on bigeye tuna

The annual catches of big eye are exceeded by those of only two other species of tuna, skipjack, Katsuwonus pelamis, and yellowfin, Thunnus albacares. However, because most of the bigeye caught are consumed fresh, whereas most of the skipjack and yellowfin caught are canned, the economic value of big eye exceeds that of any other species of tuna. Despite its importance, less is known of the biology of bigeye than of the biology of any of the other principal market species of tunas. Historically, bigeye have been harvested mostly by longlines, which take only medium to large fish. During recent years, however, greater amounts of small bigeye have been caught by purse seines and other surface gear. This is a matter of concern for several reasons. First, long line fishermen are concerned that the harvesting of small bigeye will decrease the amounts of medium to large bigeye available to them. Second, since small bigeye are canned, rather than eaten fresh, consumers are concerned about the possible decrease in the supply of high-quality fresh fish. Third, economists are concerned about the possible economic loss associated with harvesting fish at less than their maximum economic value. Fourth, biologists are concerned about the possibility that harvesting of small bigeye could decrease the overall catches of that species. These concerns cannot be properly addressed until more knowledge of the biology of big eye is available. The purposes of the meeting were to review and discuss the information available and to make recommendations for further research.

(Not) Commemorating the First World War and the Somme

In November 2013 the Attorney General of Northern Ireland, John Larkin, suggested the possibility to ending troubles-related historic prosecutions in Northern Ireland. These remarks provoked a considerable reaction, mostly hostile, and while the attorney’s rationale was based largely upon the practical difficulties associated with gathering reliable evidence and securing prosecutions after a lengthy time lag, his suggestion raises the question of whether forgetting would be preferable to remembering when it comes to our contested past. This paper intends to take a different slant on commemoration by exploring in broad terms the theme of ‘not commemorating’. In this regard it will examine the arguments in favour of remembering. Specifically in regard to the case of the memory of the First World War, it will examine the mistaken impression that the commemoration of that conflict was not widespread in independent Ireland during the inter-war years. Finally, it will suggest some of the greatest challenges facing contemporary Northern Irish society in marking the decade of centenaries.

Development of the First Disease Activity Index for Eosinophilic Esophagitis: Update on the EEsAI in 2011

Background a nd Aims: T he international E EsAI study g roupis currently developing the first activity index (EEsAI) specificfor Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE). Goal: To develop, evaluateand validate the EEsAI.Methods: T he d evelopment comprises three phases: 1.Selection of candidate items; 2. Evaluation of the activity indexin a f irst patient cohort; and 3. V alidation in a s econd EoEpatient cohort. Focus group interviews with patients were usedin p hase 1 to generate p atient r eported outcomes ( PRO)according to guidelines o f regulatory authorities ( FDA andEMA), whereas the section of biologic items was developed byDelphi r ounds of i nternational E oE experts from E urope andNorth America.Results: The EEsAI has a modular composition to assess thefollowing components o f EoE activity: p atient reportedoutcomes, endoscopic activity, histologic activity, laboratoryactivity, a nd quality of life. D efinitions f or all aspects o fendoscopic and histologic appearance were established byconsensus rounds among EoE experts. Symptom assessmenttools were created that take into account d ifferent foodconsistencies as w ell as f ood avoidance and specificprocessing strategies. T he EEsAI is evaluated in a c ohort ofadult EoE patients since March 2011.Conclusions: After successful validation, the EEsAI will allowto standardize outcome assessment in E oE t rials which w illlikely lead to its wide applicability.

An Evaluation of”Middle Ages Dead or Live?”The first interactive exhibition at the National Museum of History

This is a study conducted at, and for, the National Museum of History in Stockholm. The aim of the study was to confirm or disconfirm the hypothesis that visitors in a traditional museum environment might not take part in interactivity in an interactive exhibition. And if they do the visitors might skip the texts and objects on display. To answer this and other questions a multiple method was used. Both non participant observations and exit interviews were conducted. After a description of the interactive exhibits, theory of knowledge and learning is presented before the gathered data is presented. All together 443 visitors were observed. In the observations the visitors were timed on how much time they spent in the room, the time spent on the interactivity, texts and objects. In the 40 interviews information about visitors’ participation in the interactivity was gathered. What interactivity the visitor found easiest, hardest, funniest and most boring.The result did not confirm the hypothesis. All kinds of visitors, children and adults, participated in the interactivities. The visitors took part in the texts and objects and the interactive exhibits.

Performance of Latin America and the Caribbean during the first years of the Decade of Action for Road Safety

This issue of the FAL Bulletin examines the performance of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean during the first years of the decade of action for road safety. This document is part of the activities being undertaken by ECLAC as a United Nations regional commission in preparation for the Second Global High-Level Conference on Road Safety, which is to take place in Brasilia on 18 and 19 November 2015.

Developing a robust self evaluation framework for active learning:the first stage of an ERASMUS+ project (QAEMarketPlace4HEI)

In ensuring the quality of learning and teaching in Higher Education, self-evaluation is an important component of the process. An example would be the approach taken within the CDIO community whereby self-evaluation against the CDIO standards is part of the quality assurance process. Eight European universities (Reykjavik University, Iceland; Turku University of Applied Sciences, Finland; Aarhus University, Denmark; Helsinki Metropolia University of Applied Sciences, Finland; Ume? University, Sweden; Telecom Bretagne, France; Aston University, United Kingdom; Queens University Belfast, United Kingdom) are engaged in an EU funded Erasmus + project that is exploring the quality assurance process associated with active learning. The development of a new self-evaluation framework that feeds into a ?Marketplace? where participating institutions can be paired up and then engage in peer evaluations and sharing around each institutions approach to and implementation of active learning. All of the partner institutions are engaged in the application of CDIO within their engineering programmes and this has provided a common starting point for the partnership to form and the project to be developed. Although the initial focus will be CDIO, the longer term aim is that the approach could be of value beyond CDIO and within other disciplines. The focus of this paper is the process by which the self-evaluation framework is being developed and the form of the draft framework. In today?s Higher Education environment, the need to comply with Quality Assurance standards is an ever present feature of programme development and review. When engaging in a project that spans several countries, the wealth of applicable standards and guidelines is significant. In working towards the development of a robust Self Evaluation Framework for this project, the project team decided to take a wide view of the available resources to ensure a full consideration of different requirements and practices. The approach to developing the framework considered: a) institutional standards and processes b) national standards and processes e.g. QAA in the UK c) documents relating to regional / global accreditation schemes e.g. ABET d) requirements / guidelines relating to particular learning and teaching frameworks e.g. CDIO. The resulting draft self-evaluation framework is to be implemented within the project team to start with to support the initial ?Marketplace? pairing process. Following this initial work, changes will be considered before a final version is made available as part of the project outputs. Particular consideration has been paid to the extent of the framework, as a key objective of the project is to ensure that the approach to quality assurance has impact but is not overly demanding in terms of time or paperwork. In other words that it is focused on action and value added to staff, students and the programmes being considered.

Application of support vector machines on the basis of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model

In our study we rely on a data mining procedure known as support vector machine (SVM) on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model. The models constructed are then contrasted with the results of earlier bankruptcy models with the use of classification accuracy and the area under the ROC curve. In using the SVM technique, in addition to conventional kernel functions, we also examine the possibilities of applying the ANOVA kernel function and take a detailed look at data preparation tasks recommended in using the SVM method (handling of outliers). The results of the models assembled suggest that a significant improvement of classification accuracy can be achieved on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model when using the SVM method as opposed to neural networks.

Learning to reflect in the first year of legal education : the key to surviving legal education and legal practice

Lawyers and law students suffer significant rates of depression and substance abuse. This paper suggests that Law Schools have an obligation to assist students to develop the emotional intelligence necessary in order to cope with the stressful nature of legal practice. We draw on Schön’s discussion of the indeterminate zone of professional practice to suggest that reflective practice is the means by which students can become sufficiently emotionally intelligent to become balanced and happy lawyers. We suggest that incorporating reflective practice in intentional curriculum design in the first year of law is an effective first step in assisting students to develop the emotional intelligence necessary to survive the study and practice of law.

How well are Australian children doing in the first year of school : a demographic analysis

Background: The transition to school is a sensitive period for children in relation to school success. In the early school years, children need to develop positive attitudes to school and have experiences that promote academic, behavioural and social competence. When children begin school there are higher expectations of responsibility and independence and in the year one class, there are more explicit academic goals for literacy and numeracy and more formal instruction. Most importantly, children’s early attitudes to learning and learning styles have an impact on later educational outcomes. Method: Data were drawn from The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). LSAC is a cross-sequential cohort study funded by the Australian Government. In these analyses, Wave 2 (2006) data for 2499 children in the Kindergarten Cohort were used. Children, at Wave 2, were in the first year of formal school. They had a mean age of 6.9 years (SD= 0.26). Measures included a 6-item measure of Approaches to Learning (task persistence, independence) and the Academic Rating Scales for language and literacy and mathematical thinking. Teachers rated their relationships with children on the short form of the STRS. Results: Girls were rated by their teachers as doing better than boys on Language and literacy, Approaches to learning; and they had a better relationship with their teacher. Children from an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Island (ATSI) background were rated as doing less well on Language and Literacy and Mathematical thinking and on their Approaches to learning. Children from high Socio Economic Position families are doing better on teacher rated Language and Literacy, Mathematical thinking, Approaches to learning and they had a better relationship with their teacher. Conclusions: Findings highlight the importance of key demographic variables in understanding children’s early school success.