Impact of Resolution on the Tropical Pacific Circulation in a Matrix of Coupled Models

Results are presented from a matrix of coupled model integrations, using atmosphere resolutions of 135 and 90 km, and ocean resolutions of 1° and 1/3°, to study the impact of resolution on simulated climate. The mean state of the tropical Pacific is found to be improved in the models with a higher ocean resolution. Such an improved mean state arises from the development of tropical instability waves, which are poorly resolved at low resolution; these waves reduce the equatorial cold tongue bias. The improved ocean state also allows for a better simulation of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Several sensitivity studies have been performed to further understand the processes involved in the different component models. Significantly decreasing the horizontal momentum dissipation in the coupled model with the lower-resolution ocean has benefits for the mean tropical Pacific climate, but decreases model stability. Increasing the momentum dissipation in the coupled model with the higher-resolution ocean degrades the simulation toward that of the lower-resolution ocean. These results suggest that enhanced ocean model resolution can have important benefits for the climatology of both the atmosphere and ocean components of the coupled model, and that some of these benefits may be achievable at lower ocean resolution, if the model formulation allows.

The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide. Under the influence of global warming, the mean climate of the Pacific region will probably undergo significant changes. The tropical easterly trade winds are expected to weaken; surface ocean temperatures are expected to warm fastest near the equator and more slowly farther away; the equatorial thermocline that marks the transition between the wind-mixed upper ocean and deeper layers is expected to shoal; and the temperature gradients across the thermocline are expected to become steeper. Year-to-year ENSO variability is controlled by a delicate balance of amplifying and damping feedbacks, and one or more of the physical processes that are responsible for determining the characteristics of ENSO will probably be modified by climate change. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Niño variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change.

Interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation over the Tropical Pacific in the late 1990s

The Walker circulation is one of the major components of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation and variations in its strength are critical to equatorial Pacific Ocean circulation. It has been argued in the literature that during the 20th century the Walker circulation weakened, and that this weakening was attributable to anthropogenic climate change. By using updated observations, we show that there has been a rapid interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation since the late 1990s. Associated with this enhancement is enhanced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, anomalous westerlies in the upper troposphere, descent in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and anomalous surface easterlies in the western and central tropical Pacific. The characteristics of associated oceanic changes are a strengthened thermocline slope and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific. Many characteristics of these changes are similar to those associated with the mid-1970s climate shift with an opposite sign. We also show that the interdecadal variability of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is inversely correlated to the interdecadal variability of the zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic. An enhancement of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is associated with a weakening zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic and vise versa, implying an inter-Atlantic-Pacific connection of the zonal overturning circulation variation. Whether these recent changes will be sustained is not yet clear, but our research highlights the importance of understanding the interdecadal variability, as well as the long-term trends, that influence tropical circulation.

Sea-surface temperature records of Termination 1 in the Gulf of California: Challenges for seasonal and interannual analogues of tropical Pacific climate change

Centennial-scale records of sea-surface temperature and opal composition spanning the Last Glacial Maximum and Termination 1 (circa 25–6 ka) are presented here from Guaymas Basin in the Gulf of California. Through the application of two organic geochemistry proxies, the U37K′ index and the TEX86H index, we present evidence for rapid, stepped changes in temperatures during deglaciation. These occur in both temperature proxies at 13 ka (∼3°C increase in 270 years), 10.0 ka (∼2°C decrease over ∼250 years) and at 8.2 ka (3°C increase in <200 years). An additional rapid warming step is also observed in TEX86H at 11.5 ka. In comparing the two temperature proxies and opal content, we consider the potential for upwelling intensity to be recorded and link this millennial-scale variability to shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone position and variations in the strength of the Subtropical High. The onset of the deglacial warming from 17 to 18 ka is comparable to a “southern hemisphere” signal, although the opal record mimics the ice-rafting events of the north Atlantic (Heinrich events). Neither the modern seasonal cycle nor El Niño/Southern Oscillation patterns provide valid analogues for the trends we observe in comparison with other regional records. Fully coupled climate model simulations confirm this result, and in combination we question whether the seasonal or interannual climate variations of the modern climate are valid analogues for the glacial and deglacial tropical Pacific.

Dynamical and observational constraints on tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures at the last glacial maximum

Asynchronously coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model simulations are used to examine the consequences of changes in the west/east sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient across the equatorial Pacific at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Simulations forced by the CLIMAP SST for the LGM, where the west/east SST gradient across the Pacific is reduced compared to present, produce a reduction in the strength of the trade winds and a decrease in the west/east slope of the equatorial thermocline that is incompatible with thermocline depths newly inferred from foraminiferal assemblages. Stronger-than-present trade winds, and a more realistic simulation of the thermocline slope, are produced when eastern Pacific SSTs are 2°C cooler than western Pacific SSTs. Our study highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in tropical SSTs in determining key features of the glacial climate.

Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability. However, it is unclear how ENSO has responded to external forcing, particularly orbitally induced changes in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle during the Holocene. Here we present a reconstruction of seasonal and interannual surface conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean from a network of high-resolution coral and mollusc records that span discrete intervals of the Holocene. We identify several intervals of reduced variance in the 2 to 7 yr ENSO band that are not in phase with orbital changes in equatorial insolation, with a notable 64% reduction between 5,000 and 3,000 years ago. We compare the reconstructed ENSO variance and seasonal cycle with that simulated by nine climate models that include orbital forcing, and find that the models do not capture the timing or amplitude of ENSO variability, nor the mid-Holocene increase in seasonality seen in the observations; moreover, a simulated inverse relationship between the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and ENSO-related variance in sea surface temperatures is not found in our reconstructions. We conclude that the tropical Pacific climate is highly variable and subject to millennial scale quiescent periods. These periods harbour no simple link to orbital forcing, and are not adequately simulated by the current generation of models.

Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color-based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BCGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of similar to 1000 C-14 measurements spanning more than a decade (1983-1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PR specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 g Cm-2 d(-1)) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomassnormalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140 degrees W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison 6 years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill. (C) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.

Intensification of tropical Pacific biological productivity due to volcanic eruptions

Major volcanic eruptions generate widespread ocean cooling, which reduces upper ocean stratification. This effect has the potential to increase nutrient delivery into the euphotic zone and boost biological productivity. Using externally forced last millennium simulations of three climate/Earth System models (Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC), Community Earth System Model (CESM), and LOch-Vecode-Ecbilt-CLio-agIsm Model (LOVECLIM)), we test the hypothesis that large volcanic eruptions intensify nutrient-driven export production. It is found that strong volcanic radiative forcing enhances the likelihood of eastern Pacific El Niño-like warming in CESM and LOVECLIM. This leads to an initial reduction of nutrients and export production in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, this initial response reverses after about 3 years in association with La Niña cooling. The resulting delayed enhancement of biological production resembles the multiyear response in MIROC. The model simulations show that volcanic impacts on tropical Pacific dynamics and biogeochemistry persist for several years, thus providing a new source for potential multiyear ecosystem predictability.

Documentation of sediment cores during SONNE Expedition SO228 from the western tropical Pacific

The core descriptions (chapter 7) summarize the most important results of the analysis of each sediment core following procedures applied during ODP/IODP expeditions. All cores were opened, described, and color-scanned. In the core descriptions the first column displays the lithological data that are based on visual analysis of the core and are supplemented by information from binocular and smear slide analyses. The sediment classification largely follows ODP/IODP convention. Lithological names consist of a principal name based on composition, degree of lithification, and/or texture as determined from visual description and microscopic observations. In the structure column the intensity of bioturbation together with individual or special features (turbidites, volcanic ash layers, plant debris, shell fragments, etc.) is shown. The hue and chroma attributes of color were determined by comparison with the Munsell soil color charts and are given in the color column in the Munsell notation. A GretagMacbethTM Spectrolino spectrophotometer was used to measure percent reflectance values of sediment color at 36 wavelength channels over the visible light range (380-730 nm) on all of the cores. The digital reflectance data of the spectrophotometer readings were routinely obtained from the surface (measured in 1 cm steps) of the split cores (archive half). The Spectrolino is equipped with a measuring aperture with folding mechanism allowing an exact positioning on the split core and is connected to a portable computer. The data are directly displayed within the software package Excel and can be controlled simultaneously. From all the color measurements, for each core the red/blue ratio (700 nm/450 nm) and the lightness are shown together with the visual core description. The reflectance of individual wavelengths is often significantly affected by the presence of minor amounts of oxyhydroxides or sulphides. To eliminate these effects, we used the red/blue ratio and lightness.

Planktonic foraminifera in the trans-tropical Pacific Ocean

Cores from four Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sites were examined for planktonic foraminifers. One sample per core (from core-catchers in Holes 806B and 807B and from Section 4 in Holes 847B and 852B) was examined through the interval representing the last 5.8 m.y. Sites 806 (0°19.1'N; 159°21.7'E) and 847 (0o12.1'N; 95°19.2'W) are beneath the equatorial divergence zone. Sites 807 (3°36.4'N; 156°37.5'E) and 852 (5°19.6'N; 110°4.6'W) are located north of the equator in the convergence zone created by the interaction of the westward-flowing South Equatorial Current (SEC) and the eastward-flowing North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC). Specimens were identified to species and then grouped according to depth habitat and trophic level. Species richness and diversity were also calculated. Tropical neogloboquadrinids have been more abundant in the eastern than in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean throughout the last 5.8 m.y. During the mid-Pliocene (3.8-3.2 Ma), their abundance increased at all sites, while during the Pleistocene (after ~ 1.6 Ma), they expanded in the east and declined in the west. This suggests an increase in surface-water productivity across the Pacific Ocean during the closing of the Central American seaway and an exacerbation of the productivity asymmetry between the eastern and western equatorial regions during the Pleistocene. This faunal evidence agrees with eolian grain-size data (Hovan, 1995) and diatom flux data (Iwai, this volume), which suggest increases in tradewind strength in the eastern equatorial Pacific that centered around 3.5 and 0.5 Ma. The present longitudinal zonation of thermocline dwelling species, a response to the piling of warm surface water in the western equatorial region of the Pacific, seems to have developed after 2.4 Ma, not directly after the closing of the Panama seaway (3.2 Ma). Apparently, after 2.4 Ma, the piling warm water in the west overwhelmed the upwelling of nutrients into the photic zone in that region, creating the Oceanographic asymmetry that exists in the modern tropical Pacific and is reflected in the microfossil record. In the upper Miocene and lower Pliocene sediments, the ratio of thermocline-dwelling species to mixed-layer dwellers is 60%:40%. During the mid-Pliocene, the western sites became 40% thermocline and 60% mixed-layer dwellers. Subsequent to -2.4 Ma, the asymmetry increased to 20%: 80% in the west and the reverse in the east. This documents the gradual thickening of the warm-water layer piled up in the western tropical Pacific over the last 5.8 m.y. and reveals two "steps" in the biotic trend that can be associated with specific events in the physical environment.

Distribution of diatoms in Oligocene to Pleistocene sediments of the tropical Pacific

According to the drilling probes of the Deep Waier Drilling Project, Neogene sediments in a tropical area of the Pacific Ocean are divided into 15 zones based on diatoms. The author shows that a unique zonation may be applied for the entire region. Identification of diatoms zones boundaries was conducted through their direct correlation with nannoplancton, radiolarian and foraminiferal zonal sceals. Their ultra-structure and morphological relationship are being analysed. The mode of siliceous accumulation within the equatorial belt differed through the western central and eastern region since the early Miocene and the difference become more evident from the end of Middle Miocene. The distribution of Neogene diatomaceous silt in the tropical area is controlled by the character of gyre-water circulation and agrees with the modern geographical zonation.