Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China

Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Results Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. Conclusion Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January–February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January–February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province.

Time variation effects of weather conditions in rural MUSA-MIMO-OFDM channels

This paper presents channel measurements and weather data collection experiments conducted in a rural environment for an innovative Multi-User-Single-Antenna (MUSA) MIMO-OFDM technology, proposed for rural areas. MUSA MIMO-OFDM uplink channels are established by placing six user terminals (UT) around one access point (AP). Generated terrain profiles and relative received power plots are presented based on the experimental data. According to the relative received signal, MUSA-MIMO-OFDM uplink channels experience temporal fading. Moreover, the correlation between the relative received power and weather variables are presented. Results show that all weather variables exhibit a negative average correlation with received power. Wind speed records the highest average negative correlation coefficient of -0.35. Local maxima of negative correlation, ranging from 0.49 to 0.78, between the weather variables and relative received signals were registered between 5-6 a.m. The highest measured correlation (-0.78) of this time of the day was exhibited by wind speed. These results show the extend of time variation effects experienced by MUSA-MIMO-OFDM channels deployed in rural environments.

Time Variation in an Optimal Asymmetric Preference Monetary Policy Model

This paper considers a time varying parameter extension of the Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) model to explore whether some of the variation in parameter estimates seen in the literature could arise from this source. A time varying value for the unemployment volatility parameter can be motivated through several means including variation in the slope of the Phillips curve or variation in the preferences of the monetary authority.We show that allowing time variation for the coefficient on the unemployment volatility parameter improves the model fit and it helps to provide an explanation of inflation bias based on asymmetric central banker preferences, which is consistent across subsamples.

Inference for nonparametric high-frequency estimators with an application to time variation in betas

We consider the problem of conducting inference on nonparametric high-frequency estimators without knowing their asymptotic variances. We prove that a multivariate subsampling method achieves this goal under general conditions that were not previously available in the literature. We suggest a procedure for a data-driven choice of the bandwidth parameters. Our simulation study indicates that the subsampling method is much more robust than the plug-in method based on the asymptotic expression for the variance. Importantly, the subsampling method reliably estimates the variability of the Two Scale estimator even when its parameters are chosen to minimize the finite sample Mean Squared Error; in contrast, the plugin estimator substantially underestimates the sampling uncertainty. By construction, the subsampling method delivers estimates of the variance-covariance matrices that are always positive semi-definite. We use the subsampling method to study the dynamics of financial betas of six stocks on the NYSE. We document significant variation in betas within year 2006, and find that tick data captures more variation in betas than the data sampled at moderate frequencies such as every five or twenty minutes. To capture this variation we estimate a simple dynamic model for betas. The variance estimation is also important for the correction of the errors-in-variables bias in such models. We find that the bias corrections are substantial, and that betas are more persistent than the naive estimators would lead one to believe.

Effects of switching time on output voltages of a multilevel inverter used in high frequency applications

Employing multilevel inverters is a proper solution to reduce harmonic content of output voltage and electromagnetic interference in high power electronic applications. In this paper, a new pulse width modulation method for multilevel inverters is proposed in which power devices’ on-off switching times have been considered. This method can be surveyed in order to analyse the effect of switching time on harmonic contents of output voltage in high frequency applications when a switching time is not negligible compared to a switching cycle. Fast Fourier transform calculation and analysis of output voltage waveforms and harmonic contents with regard to switching time variation are presented in this paper for a single phase (3, 5)-level inverters used in high voltage and high frequency converters. Mathematical analysis and MATLAB simulation results have been carried out to validate the proposed method.

Intraseasonal Variation of the Summer Monsoon I:Observational Aspects

Within the summer monsoon, the circulation and rainfall over the Indian region exhibit large variations over the synoptic scale of 3-7 days and the supersynoptic scales of 10 days and longer. In this paper we discuss some facets of intraseasonal variation on the supersynoptic scale on the basis of existing observational studies and some new analysis. The major variation of the summer monsoon rainfall on this scale is the active-break cycle. The deep convection over the Indian region on a typical day in the active phase is organized over thousands of kilometers in the zonal direction and is associated with a tropical convergence zone (TCZ). The intraseasonal variations on the supersynoptic scale are also coherent on these scales and are related to the space-time variation of the large-scale TCZ. The latitudinal distribution of the occurrence of the TCZ is bimodal with the primary mode over the heated continent and a secondary mode over the ocean. The variation of the continental TCZ is generally out of phase with that of the oceanic TCZ. During the active spells, the TCZ persists over the continent in the monsoon zone. The revival from breaks occurs either by northward propagation of the TCZ over the equatorial Indian Ocean or by genesis of a disturbance in the monsoon zone (often as a result of westward propagations from W. Pacific). The mechanisms governing the fluctuation between active spells and breaks, the interphase transition and the complex interactions of the TCZ over the Indian subcontinent with the TCZ over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the W. Pacific, have yet to be completely understood.

TUNNELING ESCAPE TIME OF ELECTRONS THROUGH DOUBLE-BARRIER RESONANT-TUNNELING STRUCTURES

Tunneling escape of electrons from quantum wells (QWs) has systematically been studied in an arbitrarily multilayered heterostructures, both theoretically and experimentally. A wave packet method is developed to calculate the bias dependence of tunneling escape time (TET) in a three-barrier, two-well structure. Moreover, by considering the time variation of the band-edge profile in the escape transient, arising from the decay of injected electrons in QWs, we demonstrate that the actual escape time of certain amount of charge from QWs, instead of single electron, could be much longer than that for a single electron, say, by two orders of magnitude at resonance. The broadening of resonance may also be expected from the same mechanism before invoking various inhomogeneous and homogeneous broadening. To perform a close comparison between theory and experiment, we have developed a new method to measure TET by monitoring transient current response (TCR), stemming from tunneling escape of electrons out of QWs in a similar heterostructure. The time resolution achieved by this new method reaches to several tens ns, nearly three orders of magnitude faster than that by previous transient-capacitance spectroscopy (TCS). The measured TET shows an U-shaped, nonmonotonic dependence on bias, unambiguously indicating resonant tunneling escape of electrons from an emitter well through the DBRTS in the down-stream direction. The minimum value of TET obtained at resonance is accordance with charging effect and its time variation of injected electrons. A close comparison with the theory has been made to imply that the dynamic build-up of electrons in DBRTS might play an important role for a greatly suppressed tunneling escape rate in the vicinity of resonance.

STUDIES ON TUNNELING ESCAPE TIME OF ELECTRONS FROM A QUANTUM-WELL IN MULTILAYERED HETEROSTRUCTURES

By considering the time variation of band-edge profile arising from the decay of injected charge in quantum wells(QWs), we employ a wave packet method to verify that the actual escape time of certain amount of electrons from QWs could be much larger than that for a single electron. The theoretical result is also in agreement with our measurement of escape time, performed by using a newly developed method--transient current response.

Real-time measurement of phloem turgor pressure in Hevea brasiliensis with a modified cell pressure probe

Background: Although the pressure flow theory is widely accepted for the transport of photoassimilates in phloem sieve elements, it still requires strong experimental validation. One reason for that is the lack of a precise method for measuring the real-time phloem turgor pressure from the sink tissues, especially in tree trunks. Results: Taking the merits of Hevea brasiliensis, a novel phloem turgor pressure probe based on the state of the art cell pressure probe was developed. Our field measurements showed that the phloem turgor pressure probe can sensitively measure the real-time variation of phloem turgor pressure in H. brasiliensis but the calculation of phloem turgor pressure with xylem tension, xylem sap osmotic potential and phloem sap osmotic potential will under-estimate it. The measured phloem turgor pressure gradient in H. brasiliensis is contrary to the Münch theory. The phloem turgor pressure of H. brasiliensis varied from 8-12 bar as a consequence of water withdrawal from transpiration. Tapping could result in a sharp decrease of phloem turgor pressure followed by a recovery from 8-45 min after the tapping. The recovery of phloem turgor pressure after tapping and its change with xylem sap flow suggest the importance of phloem water relationship in the phloem turgor pressure regulation. Conclusion: The phloem turgor pressure probe is a reliable technique for measuring the real-time variation of phloem turgor pressures in H. brasiliensis. The technique could probably be extended to the accurate measurement of phloem turgor pressure in other woody plants which is essential to test the Münch theory and to investigate the phloem water relationship and turgor pressure regulation. © 2014 An et al.

Channel tracking algorithms for highly efficient wireless broadband communications in rural areas

High-speed broadband internet access is widely recognised as a catalyst to social and economic development, having a significant impact on global economy. Rural Australia’s inherent dispersed population over a large geographical area make the delivery of efficient, well-maintained and cost-effective internet a challenging task. The novel and highly-efficient Multi-User-Single-Antenna for MIMO (MUSA-MIMO) broadband wireless communication technology can effectively be used to deliver wireless broadband access to rural areas. This research aims to develop for the first time, an efficient and accurate algorithm for the tracking and prediction of Channel State Information (CSI) at the transmitter, by characterising time variation effects of the wireless communication channel on the performance of a highly-efficient MUSA-MIMO technology particularly suited for rural communities, improving their quality of life and economic prosperity.

Measuring transit service reliability using data from web-based transit user survey : a case study at Brisbane, Australia

This paper reports an empirical study on measuring transit service reliability using the data from a Web-based passenger survey on a major transit corridor in Brisbane, Australia. After an introduction of transit service reliability measures, the paper presents the results from the case study including study area, data collection, and reliability measures obtained. This includes data exploration of boarding/arrival lateness, in-vehicle time variation, waiting time variation, and headway adherence. Impacts of peak-period effects and separate operation on service reliability are examined. Relationships between transit service characteristics and passenger waiting time are also discussed. A summary of key findings and an agenda of future research are offered in conclusions.

Modeling electricity price events as point processes

Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.

Corporate credit risk prediction under stochastic volatility and jumps

This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis.

The role of BoFLC2 in cauliflower (Brassica oleracea var. botrytis L.) reproductive development

In agricultural species that are sexually propagated or whose marketable organ is a reproductive structure, management of the flowering process is critical. Inflorescence development in cauliflower is particularly complex, presenting unique challenges for those seeking to predict and manage flowering time. In this study, an integrated physiological and molecular approach was used to clarify the environmental control of cauliflower reproductive development at the molecular level. A functional allele of BoFLC2 was identified for the first time in an annual brassica, along with an allele disrupted by a frameshift mutation (boflc2). In a segregating F2 population derived from a cross between late-flowering (BoFLC2) and early-flowering (boflc2) lines, this gene behaved in a dosage-dependent manner and accounted for up to 65% of flowering time variation. Transcription of BoFLC genes was reduced by vernalization, with the floral integrator BoFT responding inversely. Overall expression of BoFT was significantly higher in early-flowering boflc2 lines, supporting the idea that BoFLC2 plays a key role in maintaining the vegetative state. A homologue of Arabidopsis VIN3 was isolated for the first time in a brassica crop species and was up-regulated by two days of vernalization, in contrast to findings in Arabidopsis where prolonged exposure to cold was required to elicit up-regulation. The correlations observed between gene expression and flowering time in controlled-environment experiments were validated with gene expression analyses of cauliflowers grown outdoors under 'natural' vernalizing conditions, indicating potential for transcript levels of flowering genes to form the basis of predictive assays for curd initiation and flowering time.