Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.

Stable isotopes unveil habitat partitioning among the marine mammals off NW Africa and reveal unique trophic niches for two globally threatened species.

Stable isotope abundances of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) in the bone of 13 species of marine mammals from the northwest coast of Africa were investigated to assess their positions in the local trophic web and their preferred habitats. Also, samples of primary producers and potential prey species from the study area were collected to characterise the local isotopic landscape. This characterisation indicated that δ13C values increased from offshore to nearshore and that δ15N was a good proxy for trophic level. Therefore, the most coastal species were Monachus monachus and Sousa teuszii, whereas the most pelagic were Physeter macrocephalus and Balaenoptera acutorostrata. δ15N values indicated that marine mammals located at the lowest trophic level were B. acutorostrata, Stenella coeruleoalba and Delphinus sp., and those occupying the highest trophic level were M. monachus and P. macrocephalus. The trophic level of Orcinus orca was similar to that of M. monachus, suggesting that O. orca preys on fish. Conservation of coastal and threatened species (M. monachus and S. teuszii) off NW Africa should be a priority because these species, as the main apex predators, cannot be replaced by other marine mammals.

Managing threatened species – the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and the declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviourbased models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley’s declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

Managing threatened species: the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviour-based models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley's declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

A new and threatened species of Scinax (Anura: Hylidae) from Queimada Grande Island, southeastern Brazil

We describe a new species of hylid frog, Scinax peixotoi, from Queimada Grande Island, southeastern Brazil. The new species belongs to the Scinax perpusillus species group, in which all known forms inhabit bromeliads, and is diagnosed by the following set of characters: moderate-size (males 18.8-20.7 mm SVL, females 22.4-25.1 mm SVL); canthus rostralis distinct; dorsal skin slightly rugose; and a distinct advertisement call with relatively low dominant frequency. The new species is known from a single population on Queimada Grande, an island of 43 ha, approximately 33 km distant from the coast of São Paulo State, where it inhabits scattered patches of bromeliads. The highly specialized and patchy habitat of S. peixotoi, associated with its small range size, make this species highly susceptible to stochastic or anthropogenic habitat disturbances, which could lead it to extinction. Copyright © 2007 Magnolia Press.

Severe population decline of marsh deer, Blastocerus dichotomus (Cetartiodactyla: Cervidae), a threatened species, caused by flooding related to a hydroelectric power plant

Balancing power production and environmental conservation can be problematic. The objective of this study was to investigate the abundance of marsh deer in the Paraná River Basin, above the Sergio Motta (Porto Primavera) Dam, before and after the impact of the dam closure. A fixed-wing, flat window aircraft was used to survey study transects. Observations were recorded based on the distance sampling line transect method, assuming that the detection probability decreases with increased distance. The abundance of marsh deer in the survey region prior to flooding was estimated to be 974 individuals (CV = 0.23). The overall abundance dropped from 974 to 444 (CV = 0.26) individuals after flooding, an overall reduction of 54%. This reduction can be attributed to the direct impact of the flooding process, but it was likely exacerbated by indirect effects, such as increased disease, hunting, and reduction in food availability. Prior to flooding, the marsh deer was distributed widely throughout the dam's catchment area; however, the marsh deer habitat was almost completely destroyed by the flooding process. This situation highlights the need to implement management strategies that ensure the survival of the remaining fragmented population.

Redescription of Hyphessobrycon flammeus Myers, 1924 (Ostariophysi: Characidae), a threatened species from Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The Economics of Threatened Species Conservation: A Review and Analysis

Stabilizing human population size and reducing human-caused impacts on the environment are keys to conserving threatened species (TS). Earth's human population is ~ 7 billion and increasing by ~ 76 million per year. This equates to a human birth-death ratio of 2.35 annually. The 2007 Red List prepared by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) categorized 16,306 species of vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, and other organisms (e.g., lichens, algae) as TS. This is ~ 1 percent of the 1,589,161 species described by IUCN or ~ 0.0033 percent of the believed 5,000,000 total species. Of the IUCN’s described species, vertebrates comprised relatively the most TS listings within respective taxonomic categories (5,742 of 59,811), while invertebrates (2,108 of 1,203,175), plants (8,447 of 297,326), and other species (9 of 28,849) accounted for minor class percentages. Conservation economics comprises microeconomic and macroeconomic principles involving interactions among ecological, environmental, and natural resource economics. A sustainable-growth (steady-state) economy has been posited as instrumental to preserving biological diversity and slowing extinctions in the wild, but few nations endorse this approach. Expanding growth principles characterize most nations' economic policies. To date, statutory fine, captive breeding cost, contingent valuation analysis, hedonic pricing, and travel cost methods are used to value TS in economic research and models. Improved valuation methods of TS are needed for benefit-cost analysis (BCA) of conservation plans. This Chapter provides a review and analysis of: (1) the IUCN status of species, (2) economic principles inherent to sustainable versus growth economies, and (3) methodological issues which hinder effective BCAs of TS conservation.

Evaluation of reproductive sucess and conservation strategies for Senecio coincyi (Asteraceae), a narrow and threatened species

Senecio coincyi is a threatened endemic plant of central western Spain, with a very narrow extent of occurrence. The reproductive success and germination behaviour of this species were studied. The area of occupancy, habitat types and size of 13 known subpopulations of S. coincyi were evaluated. The number of individuals that form all these subpopulations was counted. In addition, the number of flowers and cypselas per fruit head and the number of fruit heads per individual plant were recorded in a subset of subpopulations. Germination tests were carried out to evaluate the effect of temperature and light regimes on, and possible intraspecific variation in, cypsela germination. Cypselas reached very high germination percentages (90?100%) from 15?C to 30?C. However, the germination decreased (19%) at 10?C. The light conditions assayed (16-h light photoperiod and complete darkness) did not significantly affect cypsela germination. In general, there was no intraspecific variability in germination patterns of S. coincyi cypselas. Livestock is the most important factor that can be a threat for this species. S. coincyi showed high reproductive success and, therefore, its conservation problems are not due to agents related to its reproduction, but rather to other factors such as alteration of its habitat caused by the presence of livestock.

Evaluation of reproductive success and conservation strategies for Senecio coincyi (Asteraceae), a narrow and threatened species.

enecio coincyi is a threatened endemic plant of central western Spain, with a very narrow extent of occurrence. The reproductive success and germination behaviour of this species were studied. The area of occupancy, habitat types and size of 13 known subpopulations of S. coincyi were evaluated. The number of individuals that form all these subpopulations was counted. In addition, the number of flowers and cypselas per fruit head and the number of fruit heads per individual plant were recorded in a subset of subpopulations. Germination tests were carried out to evaluate the effect of temperature and light regimes on, and possible intraspecific variation in, cypsela germination. Cypselas reached very high germination percentages (90?100%) from 15°C to 30°C. However, the germination decreased (19%) at 10°C. The light conditions assayed (16-h light photoperiod and complete darkness) did not significantly affect cypsela germination. In general, there was no intraspecific variability in germination patterns of S. coincyi cypselas. Livestock is the most important factor that can be a threat for this species. S. coincyi showed high reproductive success and, therefore, its conservation problems are not due to agents related to its reproduction, but rather to other factors such as alteration of its habitat caused by the presence of livestock.

Endangered and threatened species of Illinois : status and distribution /

Includes bibliographical references (v. 1, p. 106-116; v. 2, p. 106-114) and indexes.

Endangered and threatened species of Illinois : status and distribution /

Includes bibliographical references (v.1, p. 101-115) and indexes.

[Current information on federally-listed endangered and threatened species within the Southeast region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]

Title from shipping list.

Capturing expert knowledge for threatened species assessments: a case study using NatureServe conservation status ranks

Assessments for assigning the conservation status of threatened species that are based purely on subjective judgements become problematic because assessments can be influenced by hidden assumptions, personal biases and perceptions of risks, making the assessment process difficult to repeat. This can result in inconsistent assessments and misclassifications, which can lead to a lack of confidence in species assessments. It is almost impossible to Understand an expert's logic or visualise the underlying reasoning behind the many hidden assumptions used throughout the assessment process. In this paper, we formalise the decision making process of experts, by capturing their logical ordering of information, their assumptions and reasoning, and transferring them into a set of decisions rules. We illustrate this through the process used to evaluate the conservation status of species under the NatureServe system (Master, 1991). NatureServe status assessments have been used for over two decades to set conservation priorities for threatened species throughout North America. We develop a conditional point-scoring method, to reflect the current subjective process. In two test comparisons, 77% of species' assessments using the explicit NatureServe method matched the qualitative assessments done subjectively by NatureServe staff. Of those that differed, no rank varied by more than one rank level under the two methods. In general, the explicit NatureServe method tended to be more precautionary than the subjective assessments. The rank differences that emerged from the comparisons may be due, at least in part, to the flexibility of the qualitative system, which allows different factors to be weighted on a species-by-species basis according to expert judgement. The method outlined in this study is the first documented attempt to explicitly define a transparent process for weighting and combining factors under the NatureServe system. The process of eliciting expert knowledge identifies how information is combined and highlights any inconsistent logic that may not be obvious in Subjective decisions. The method provides a repeatable, transparent, and explicit benchmark for feedback, further development, and improvement. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.