Theoretical prediction of a crystal structure.

The diffusion equation method of global minimization is applied to compute the crystal structure of S6, with no a priori knowledge about the system. The experimental lattice parameters and positions and orientations of the molecules in the unit cell are predicted correctly.

Theoretical prediction of plastic strains of polycrystals,

Mode of access: Internet.

A Joint Experimental and Theoretical Study on the Nanomorphology of CaWO4 Crystals

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spin-Orbit Coupling in n-Type PbTe/PbEuTe Quantum Wells

Magnetoresistance measurements were performed on an n-type PbTe/PbEuTe quantum well and weak antilocalization effects were observed. This indicates the presence of spin orbit coupling phenomena and we showed that the Rashba effect is the main mechanism responsible for this spin orbit coupling. Using the model developed by Iordanskii et al., we fitted the experimental curves and obtained the inelastic and spin orbit scattering times. Thus we could compare the zero field energy spin-splitting predicted by the Rashba theory with the energy spin-splitting obtained from the analysis of the experimental curves. The final result confirms the theoretical prediction of strong Rashba effect on IV-VI based quantum wells.

Periodic-orbit analysis and scaling laws of intermingled basins of attraction in an ecological dynamical system

Chaotic dynamical systems with two or more attractors lying on invariant subspaces may, provided certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled, exhibit intermingled basins of attraction: Each basin is riddled with holes belonging to basins of the other attractors. In order to investigate the occurrence of such phenomenon in dynamical systems of ecological interest (two-species competition with extinction) we have characterized quantitatively the intermingled basins using periodic-orbit theory and scaling laws. The latter results agree with a theoretical prediction from a stochastic model, and also with an exact result for the scaling exponent we derived for the specific class of models investigated. We discuss the consequences of the scaling laws in terms of the predictability of a final state (extinction of either species) in an ecological experiment.

Measurement of the top pair production cross-section in 8 TeV proton-proton collisions using kinematic information in the lepton+jets final state with ATLAS

A measurement is presented of the tt¯ inclusive production cross section in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of s√=8  TeV using data collected by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The measurement was performed in the lepton+jets final state using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3  fb−1. The cross section was obtained using a likelihood discriminant fit and b-jet identification was used to improve the signal-to-background ratio. The inclusive tt¯ production cross section was measured to be 260±1(stat)+22−23(stat)±8(lumi)±4(beam)  pb assuming a top-quark mass of 172.5 GeV, in good agreement with the theoretical prediction of 253+13−15  pb. The tt¯→(e,μ)+jets production cross section in the fiducial region determined by the detector acceptance is also reported.

Observation of top-quark pair production in association with a photon and measurement of the t t ¯ γ production cross section in pp collisions at s =7 TeV using the ATLAS detector

A search is performed for top-quark pairs (tt¯) produced together with a photon (γ) with transverse momentum >20 GeV using a sample of tt¯ candidate events in final states with jets, missing transverse momentum, and one isolated electron or muon. The dataset used corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.59 fb−1 of proton--proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. In total 140 and 222 tt¯γ candidate events are observed in the electron and muon channels, to be compared to the expectation of 79±26 and 120±39 non-tt¯γ background events respectively. The production of tt¯γ events is observed with a significance of 5.3 standard deviations away from the null hypothesis. The tt¯γ production cross section times the branching ratio (BR) of the single-lepton decay channel is measured in a fiducial kinematic region within the ATLAS acceptance. The measured value is σfidtt¯γ=63±8(stat.)+17−13(syst.)±1(lumi.) fb per lepton flavor, in good agreement with the leading-order theoretical calculation normalized to the next-to-leading-order theoretical prediction of 48±10 fb.

Determination of the top-quark pole mass using t(t)over-bar+1-jet events collected with the ATLAS experiment in 7 TeV pp collisions

The normalized differential cross section for top-quark pair production in association with at least one jet is studied as a function of the inverse of the invariant mass of the tt¯+1-jet system. This distribution can be used for a precise determination of the top-quark mass since gluon radiation depends on the mass of the quarks. The experimental analysis is based on proton--proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. The selected events were identified using the lepton+jets top-quark-pair decay channel, where lepton refers to either an electron or a muon. The observed distribution is compared to a theoretical prediction at next-to-leading-order accuracy in quantum chromodynamics using the pole-mass scheme. With this method, the measured value of the top-quark pole mass, mpolet, is: mpolet =173.7 ± 1.5 (stat.) ± 1.4 (syst.) +1.0−0.5 (theory) GeV. This result represents the most precise measurement of the top-quark pole mass to date.

Price competition under cost uncertainty: A laboratory analysis

We study the relation between the number of firms and price-cost margins under price competition with uncertainty about competitors' costs. We present results of an experiment in which two, three and four identical firms repeatedly interact in this environment. In line with the theoretical prediction, market prices decrease with the number of firms, but on average stay above marginal costs. Pricing is less aggressive in duopolies than in triopolies and tetrapolies. However, independently from the number of firms, pricing is more aggressive than in the theoretical equilibrium. Both the absolute and the relative surpluses increase with the number of firms. Total surplus is close to the equilibrium level, since enhanced consumer surplus through lower prices is counteracted by occasional displacements of the most efficient firm in production.

Inter-group conflict and intra-group punishment in an experimental contest game

We study how conflict in a contest game is influenced by rival parties being groups and by group members being able to punish each other. Our main motivation stems from the analysis of socio-political conflict. The relevant theoretical prediction in our setting is that conflict expenditures are independent of group size and independent of whether punishment is available or not. We find, first, that our results contradict the independence of group-size prediction: conflict expenditures of groups are substantially larger than those of individuals, and both are substantially above equilibrium. Towards the end of the experiment material losses in groups are 257% of the predicted level. There is, however, substantial heterogeneity in the investment behaviour of individual group members. Second, allowing group members to punish each other after individual contributions to the contest effort are revealed leads to even larger conflict expenditures. Now material losses are 869% of the equilibrium level and there is much less heterogeneity in individual group members' investments. These results contrast strongly with those from public goods experiments where punishment enhances efficiency and leads to higher material payoffs.

Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Predicció dels períodes de les seques

En aquest article es fa una predicció teòrica dels períodes de les seques externes i internes de l'estany de Banyoles utilitzant el mètode proposat per Mortimer (1979) i que es basa en un model unidimensional i iteratiu d'integració de les equacions de continuïtat i de moviment. La poca profunditat del llac fa que per a les seques internes s'hagin de considerar4 zones diferents d'oscil·lació. El període de l'harmònic fonamental per a les seques externes és de 6,9 min. Els harmònics fonamentals per a les seques internes a les quatre diferents zones valen: 2,7 hores, 1,89 hores, 1 hora i 35 min

Do agglomeration economies reduce the sensitivity of firm location to tax differentials?

Low corporate taxes can help attract new firms. This is the main mechanism underpinning the standard 'race-to-the-bottom'view of tax competition. A recent theoretical literature has qualified this view by formalizing the argument that agglomeration forces can reduce firms' sensitivity to tax differentials across locations. We test this proposition using data on firm startups across Swiss municipalities. We find that, on average, high corporate income taxes do deter new firms, but that this relationship is significantly weaker in the most spatially concentrated sectors. Location choices of firms in sectors with an agglomeration intensity at the twentieth percentile of the sample distribution are estimated to be twice as responsive to a given difference in local corporate tax burdens as firms in sectors with an agglomeration intensity at the eightieth percentile. Hence, our analysis confirms the theoretical prediction: agglomeration economies can neutralize the impact of tax differentials on firms' location choices.

Equilibrium selection through incomplete information in coordination games: An experimental study

We perform an experiment on a pure coordination game with uncertaintyabout the payoffs. Our game is closely related to models that have beenused in many macroeconomic and financial applications to solve problemsof equilibrium indeterminacy. In our experiment each subject receives anoisy signal about the true payoffs. This game has a unique strategyprofile that survives the iterative deletion of strictly dominatedstrategies (thus a unique Nash equilibrium). The equilibrium outcomecoincides, on average, with the risk-dominant equilibrium outcome ofthe underlying coordination game. The behavior of the subjects convergesto the theoretical prediction after enough experience has been gained. The data (and the comments) suggest that subjects do not apply through"a priori" reasoning the iterated deletion of dominated strategies.Instead, they adapt to the responses of other players. Thus, the lengthof the learning phase clearly varies for the different signals. We alsotest behavior in a game without uncertainty as a benchmark case. The gamewith uncertainty is inspired by the "global" games of Carlsson and VanDamme (1993).

Plant DNA barcodes and the influence of gene flow.

Success of species assignment using DNA barcodes has been shown to vary among plant lineages because of a wide range of different factors. In this study, we confirm the theoretical prediction that gene flow influences species assignment with simulations and a literature survey. We show that the genome experiencing the highest gene flow is, in the majority of the cases, the best suited for species delimitation. Our results clearly suggest that, for most angiosperm groups, plastid markers will not be the most appropriate for use as DNA barcodes. We therefore advocate shifting the focus from plastid to nuclear markers to achieve an overall higher success using DNA barcodes.