999 resultados para Systems tracks
Resumo:
This study has as a main objective to make a detailed stratigraphic analysis of the Aptian-Albian interval in the east part of Araripe Basin, NE of Brazil which correspond, litostratigraphically, to Rio Da Batateira, Crato, Ipubi and Romualdo formations. The stratigraphic analysis was based on three different stages, the 1D, 2D and 3D analysis; these ones were adapted to the sequence stratigraphy concepts in order to create a chronostratigraphic framework for the study area within the basin. The database used in the present study contains field and well information, wells that belong to Santana Project, carried out by the Ministério de Minas e Energia- DNPM- CPRM from 1977 to 1978. The analysis 1D, which was done separately for each well and outcrop allowed the recognition of 13 sedimentary facies, mainly divided based on predominant litologies and sedimentary structures. Such facies are lithologically represented by pebble, sandstones, claystones, margas and evaporates; these facies are associated in order to characterize different depositional systems, that integrate from the continental environment (fluvial system and lacustre), paralic system (delta system and lagunar) to the marine environment (shelfenvironment). The first one, the fluvial system was divided into two subtypes: meandering fluvial system, characterized by fill channel and floodplain deposits; the facies of this system are associated vertically according to the textural thinning upward cycles (dirting-up trend pattern in well logs). Lacustrine environment is mainly related with the lithotypes of the Crato Formation, it shows a good distribution within the basin, been composed by green claystone deposits and calcareous laminated. Deltaic System represented by prodelta and delta front deposits which coarsening upward tendency. Lagunar system is characterised by the presence of anhydrite and gypsum deposits besides the black claystone deposits with vegetal fragments which do not contain a fauna typically marine. The marine platform system is composed by successions of black and gray claystone with fossiliferous fauna of Dinoflagellates (Spiniferites Mantell, Subtilisphaera Jain e Subtilisphaera Millipied genre) typical of this kind of depositional system. The sedimentary facies described are vertically arranged in cycles with progradational patterns which form textural coersening upward cycles and retrogradational, represented by textural thinning dowward cycles. Based in these cycles, in their stack pattern and the vertical change between these patterns, the systems tracks and the depositional sequences were recognized. The Low System Track (LST) and High System Track (HST) are composed by cycles with progradational stack pattern, whereas the Trangessive System Track (TST) is composed by retrogradational stack pattern cycles. The 2D stratigraphic analysis was done through the carrying out of two stratigraphic sections. For the selection of the datum the deepest maximum flooding surface was chosen, inside the Sequence 1, the execution of these sections allowed to understand the behaviour of six depositional systems along the study area, which were interpreted as cycles of second order or supercycles (cycles between 3 and 10 Ma), according to the Vail, et al (1977) classification. The Sequence 1, the oldest of the six identified is composed by the low, transgressive and high systems tracks. The first two system tracks are formed exclusively by fluvial deposits of the Rio da Batateira Formation whereas the third one includes deltaic and lacustrine deposits of the Crato Formation. The sequences 2 and 3 are formed by the transgressive systems tracks (lake spreading phase) and the highstand system track (lake backward phase). The TST of these sequences are formed by lacustrine deposits whereas HST contains deltaic deposits, indicating high rates of sedimentary supply at the time of it s deposition. The sequence 4 is composed by LST, TST and HST, The TST4 shows a significant fall of the lake base level, this track was developed in conditions of low relation between the creation rate of space of accommodation and the sedimentary influx. The TST4 marks the third phase of expansion of the lacustrine system in the section after the basin´s rift, the lacustrine system established in the previous track starts a backward phase in conditions that the sedimentary supply rate exceeds the creation rate of space accommodation. The sequence 5 was developed in two different phases, the first one is related with the latest expansion stage of the lake, (TST5), the basal track of this sequence. In this phase the base level of the lake rose considerably. The second phase (related to the TST5) indicates the end of the lacustrine domain in the Araripe Basin and the change to lagunar system ant tidal flat, with great portions in the supratidal. These systems were formed by restricted lagoons, with shallow level of water and with intermittent connections with the sea. This, was the phase when the Araripe Basin recorded the most several arid conditions of the whole interval studied, Aptian Albian, conditions that allow the formation of evaporitic deposits. The sequence 6 began its deposition after a significant fall of the sea (LST6). The sequence 6 is without any doubtlessly, the sequence that has deposits that prove the effective entrance of the sea into the Araripe Basin. The TST6, end of this sequence, represents the moment which the sea reaches its maximum level during the Aptian Albian time. The stratigraphic analysis of the Aptian Albian interval made possible the understanding that the main control in the development of the depositional sequences recognized in the Araripe Basin were the variations of the local base level, which are controlled itself by the climate changes
Resumo:
The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) has been investigated using an objective feature tracking methodology to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Overall the results show that the ECMWF EPS has a slightly higher level of skill than the NCEP EPS in the northern hemisphere (NH). However in the southern hemisphere (SH), NCEP has higher predictive skill than ECMWF for the intensity of the cyclones. The results from both EPS indicate a higher level of predictive skill for the position of extratropical cyclones than their intensity and show that there is a larger spread in intensity than position. Further analysis shows that the predicted propagation speed of cyclones is generally too slow for the ECMWF EPS and show a slight bias for the intensity of the cyclones to be overpredicted. This is also true for the NCEP EPS in the SH. For the NCEP EPS in the NH the intensity of the cyclones is underpredicted. There is small bias in both the EPS for the cyclones to be displaced towards the poles. For each ensemble forecast of each cyclone, the predictive skill of the ensemble member that best predicts the cyclones position and intensity was computed. The results are very encouraging showing that the predictive skill of the best ensemble member is significantly higher than that of the control forecast in terms of both the position and intensity of the cyclones. The prediction of cyclones before they are identified as 850 hPa vorticity centers in the analysis cycle was also considered. It is shown that an indication of extratropical cyclones can be given by at least 1 ensemble member 7 days before they are identified in the analysis. Further analysis of the ECMWF EPS shows that the ensemble mean has a higher level of skill than the control forecast, particularly for the intensity of the cyclones, 2 from day 3 of the forecast. There is a higher level of skill in the NH than the SH and the spread in the SH is correspondingly larger. The difference between the ensemble mean and spread is very small for the position of the cyclones, but the spread of the ensemble is smaller than the ensemble mean error for the intensity of the cyclones in both hemispheres. Results also show that the ECMWF control forecast has ½ to 1 day more skill than the perturbed members, for both the position and intensity of the cyclones, throughout the forecast.
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If nonprofit organisations are moving towards more market oriented ways of operating, is this changing the traditional meanings and value of commitments associated with their activities? This article discusses the findings of a research project conducted by the University of Queensland into the impact that changes in government policies are having on the community services sector, in particular disability services. The values and belief systems traditionally associated with the sector were found to be fundamentally unaltered.
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Urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) contributes to food security, serves as an opportunity for income generation, and provides recreational services to urban citizens. With a population of 21 Million people, of which 60 % live in slums, UPA activities can play a crucial role in supporting people’s livelihoods in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). This study was conducted to characterize the railway gardens, determine their role in UPA production, and assess potential risks. It comprises a baseline survey among 38 railway gardeners across MMR characterized by different demographic, socio-economic, migratory, and labour characteristics. Soil, irrigation water, and plant samples were analyzed for nutrients, heavy metals, and microbial load. All the railway gardeners practiced agriculture as a primary source of income and cultivated seasonal vegetables such as lady’s finger (Abelmoschus esculentus L. Moench), spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.), red amaranth (Amaranthus cruentus L.), and white radish (Raphanus sativus var. longipinnatus) which were irrigated with waste water. This irrigation water was loaded with 7–28 mg N l^(−1), 0.3–7 mg P l^(−1), and 8–32 mg K l^(−1), but also contained heavy metals such as lead (0.02–0.06 mg Pb l^(−1)), cadmium (0.03–0.17 mg Cd l^(−1)), mercury (0.001–0.005 mg Hg l^(−1)), and pathogens such as Escherichia coli (1,100 most probable number per 100 ml). Levels of heavy metals exceeded the critical thresholds in surface soils (Cr, Ni, and Sr) and produce (Pb, Cd, and Sr). The railway garden production systems can substantially foster employment and reduce economic deprivation of urban poor particularly slum dwellers and migrant people. However this production system may also cause possible health risks to producers and consumers.
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A detailed view of Southern Hemisphere storm tracks is obtained based on the application of filtered variance and modern feature-tracking techniques to a wide range of 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. It has been checked that the conclusions drawn in this study are valid even if data from only the satellite era are used. The emphasis of the paper is on the winter season, but results for the four seasons are also discussed. Both upper- and lower-tropospheric fields are used. The tracking analysis focuses on systems that last longer than 2 days and are mobile (move more than 1000 km). Many of the results support previous ideas about the storm tracks, but some new insights are also obtained. In the summer there is a rather circular, strong, deep high-latitude storm track. In winter the high-latitude storm track is more asymmetric with a spiral from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans in toward Antarctica and a subtropical jet–related lower-latitude storm track over the Pacific, again tending to spiral poleward. At all times of the year, maximum storm activity in the higher-latitude storm track is in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean regions. In the winter upper troposphere, the relative importance of, and interplay between, the subtropical and subpolar storm tracks is discussed. The genesis, lysis, and growth rate of lower-tropospheric winter cyclones together lead to a vivid picture of their behavior that is summarized as a set of overlapping plates, each composed of cyclone life cycles. Systems in each plate appear to feed the genesis in the next plate through downstream development in the upper-troposphere spiral storm track. In the lee of the Andes in South America, there is cyclogenesis associated with the subtropical jet and also, poleward of this, cyclogenesis largely associated with system decay on the upslope and regeneration on the downslope. The genesis and lysis of cyclones and anticyclones have a definite spatial relationship with each other and with the Andes. At 500 hPa, their relative longitudinal positions are consistent with vortex-stretching ideas for simple flow over a large-scale mountain. Cyclonic systems near Antarctica have generally spiraled in from lower latitudes. However, cyclogenesis associated with mobile cyclones occurs around the Antarctic coast with an interesting genesis maximum over the sea ice near 150°E. The South Pacific storm track emerges clearly from the tracking as a coherent deep feature spiraling from Australia to southern South America. A feature of the summer season is the genesis of eastward-moving cyclonic systems near the tropic of Capricorn off Brazil, in the central Pacific and, to a lesser extent, off Madagascar, followed by movement along the southwest flanks of the subtropical anticyclones and contribution to the “convergence zone” cloud bands seen in these regions.
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For the tracking of extrema associated with weather systems to be applied to a broad range of fields it is necessary to remove a background field that represents the slowly varying, large spatial scales. The sensitivity of the tracking analysis to the form of background field removed is explored for the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks for three contrasting fields from an integration of the U. K. Met Office's (UKMO) Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadAM3). Several methods are explored for the removal of a background field from the simple subtraction of the climatology, to the more sophisticated removal of the planetary scales. Two temporal filters are also considered in the form of a 2-6-day Lanczos filter and a 20-day high-pass Fourier filter. The analysis indicates that the simple subtraction of the climatology tends to change the nature of the systems to the extent that there is a redistribution of the systems relative to the climatological background resulting in very similar statistical distributions for both positive and negative anomalies. The optimal planetary wave filter removes total wavenumbers less than or equal to a number in the range 5-7, resulting in distributions more easily related to particular types of weather system. For the temporal filters the 2-6-day bandpass filter is found to have a detrimental impact on the individual weather systems, resulting in the storm tracks having a weak waveguide type of behavior. The 20-day high-pass temporal filter is less aggressive than the 2-6-day filter and produces results falling between those of the climatological and 2-6-day filters.
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A new method for assessing forecast skill and predictability that involves the identification and tracking of extratropical cyclones has been developed and implemented to obtain detailed information about the prediction of cyclones that cannot be obtained from more conventional analysis methodologies. The cyclones were identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories, and statistics were generated to determine the rate at which the position and intensity of the forecasted storms diverge from the analyzed tracks as a function of forecast lead time. The results show a higher level of skill in predicting the position of extratropical cyclones than the intensity. They also show that there is potential to improve the skill in predicting the position by 1 - 1.5 days and the intensity by 2 - 3 days, via improvements to the forecast model. Further analysis shows that forecasted storms move at a slower speed than analyzed storms on average and that there is a larger error in the predicted amplitudes of intense storms than the weaker storms. The results also show that some storms can be predicted up to 3 days before they are identified as an 850-hPa vorticity center in the analyses. In general, the results show a higher level of skill in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH); however, the rapid growth of NH winter storms is not very well predicted. The impact that observations of different types have on the prediction of the extratropical cyclones has also been explored, using forecasts integrated from analyses that were constructed from reduced observing systems. A terrestrial, satellite, and surface-based system were investigated and the results showed that the predictive skill of the terrestrial system was superior to the satellite system in the NH. Further analysis showed that the satellite system was not very good at predicting the growth of the storms. In the SH the terrestrial system has significantly less skill than the satellite system, highlighting the dominance of satellite observations in this hemisphere. The surface system has very poor predictive skill in both hemispheres.
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Data from four recent reanalysis projects [ECMWF, NCEP-NCAR, NCEP - Department of Energy ( DOE), NASA] have been diagnosed at the scale of synoptic weather systems using an objective feature tracking method. The tracking statistics indicate that, overall, the reanalyses correspond very well in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) lower troposphere, although differences for the spatial distribution of mean intensities show that the ECMWF reanalysis is systematically stronger in the main storm track regions but weaker around major orographic features. A direct comparison of the track ensembles indicates a number of systems with a broad range of intensities that compare well among the reanalyses. In addition, a number of small-scale weak systems are found that have no correspondence among the reanalyses or that only correspond upon relaxing the matching criteria, indicating possible differences in location and/or temporal coherence. These are distributed throughout the storm tracks, particularly in the regions known for small-scale activity, such as secondary development regions and the Mediterranean. For the Southern Hemisphere (SH), agreement is found to be generally less consistent in the lower troposphere with significant differences in both track density and mean intensity. The systems that correspond between the various reanalyses are considerably reduced and those that do not match span a broad range of storm intensities. Relaxing the matching criteria indicates that there is a larger degree of uncertainty in both the location of systems and their intensities compared with the NH. At upper-tropospheric levels, significant differences in the level of activity occur between the ECMWF reanalysis and the other reanalyses in both the NH and SH winters. This occurs due to a lack of coherence in the apparent propagation of the systems in ERA15 and appears most acute above 500 hPa. This is probably due to the use of optimal interpolation data assimilation in ERA15. Also shown are results based on using the same techniques to diagnose the tropical easterly wave activity. Results indicate that the wave activity is sensitive not only to the resolution and assimilation methods used but also to the model formulation.
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The aim of this paper is to explore the use of both an Eulerian and system-centered method of storm track diagnosis applied to a wide range of meteorological fields at multiple levels to provide a range of perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter transient motions and to give new insight into the storm track organization and behavior. The data used are primarily from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses project extended with operational analyses to the period 1979-2000. This is supplemented by data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Goddard Earth Observing System 1 reanalyses. The range of fields explored include the usual mean sea level pressure and the lower- and upper-tropospheric height, meridional wind, vorticity, and temperature, as well as the potential vorticity (PV) on a 330-K isentropic surface (PV330) and potential temperature on a PV = 2 PVU surface (theta(PV2)). As well as reporting the primary analysis based on feature tracking, the standard Eulerian 2-6-day bandpass filtered variance analysis is also reported and contrasted with the tracking diagnostics. To enable the feature points to be identified as extrema for all the chosen fields, a planetary wave background structure is removed at each data time. The bandpass filtered variance derived from the different fields yield a rich picture of the nature and comparative magnitudes of the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, and of the Siberian and Mediterranean candidates for storm tracks. The feature tracking allows the cyclonic and anticyclonic activities to be considered seperately. The analysis indicates that anticyclonic features are generally much weaker with less coherence than the cyclonic systems. Cyclones and features associated with them are shown to have much greater coherence and give tracking diagnostics that create a vivid storm track picture that includes the aspects highlighted by the variances as well as highlighting aspects that are not readily available from Eulerian studies. In particular, the upper-tropospheric features as shown by negative theta(PV2), for example, occur in a band spiraling around the hemisphere from the subtropical North Atlantic eastward to the high latitudes of the same ocean basin. Lower-troposphere storm tracks occupy more limited longitudinal sectors, with many of the individual storms possibly triggered from the upper-tropospheric disturbances in the spiral band of activity.
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Graphical tracking is a technique for crop scheduling where the actual plant state is plotted against an ideal target curve which encapsulates all crop and environmental characteristics. Management decisions are made on the basis of the position of the actual crop against the ideal position. Due to the simplicity of the approach it is possible for graphical tracks to be developed on site without the requirement for controlled experimentation. Growth models and graphical tracks are discussed, and an implementation of the Richards curve for graphical tracking described. In many cases, the more intuitively desirable growth models perform sub-optimally due to problems with the specification of starting conditions, environmental factors outside the scope of the original model and the introduction of new cultivars. Accurate specification for a biological model requires detailed and usually costly study, and as such is not adaptable to a changing cultivar range and changing cultivation techniques. Fitting of a new graphical track for a new cultivar can be conducted on site and improved over subsequent seasons. Graphical tracking emphasises the current position relative to the objective, and as such does not require the time consuming or system specific input of an environmental history, although it does require detailed crop measurement. The approach is flexible and could be applied to a variety of specification metrics, with digital imaging providing a route for added value. For decision making regarding crop manipulation from the observed current state, there is a role for simple predictive modelling over the short term to indicate the short term consequences of crop manipulation.
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The winter climate of Europe and the Mediterranean is dominated by the weather systems of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The behaviour of the storm tracks is highly variable, particularly in the eastern North Atlantic, and has a profound impact on the hydroclimate of the Mediterranean region. A deeper understanding of the storm tracks and the factors that drive them is therefore crucial for interpreting past changes in Mediterranean climate and the civilizations it has supported over the last 12 000 years (broadly the Holocene period). This paper presents a discussion of how changes in climate forcing (e.g. orbital variations, greenhouse gases, ice sheet cover) may have impacted on the ‘basic ingredients’ controlling the mid-latitude storm tracks over the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean on intermillennial time scales. Idealized simulations using the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) are used to explore the basic processes, while a series of timeslice simulations from a similar atmospheric GCM coupled to a thermodynamic slab ocean (HadSM3) are examined to identify the impact these drivers have on the storm track during the Holocene. The results suggest that the North Atlantic storm track has moved northward and strengthened with time since the Early to Mid-Holocene. In contrast, the Mediterranean storm track may have weakened over the same period. It is, however, emphasized that much remains still to be understood about the evolution of the North Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks during the Holocene period.
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Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity is assessed by applying an algorithm for the detection and tracking of synoptic scale cyclones to mean sea level pressure data. The method, originally developed for the Southern Hemisphere, is adapted for application in the Northern Hemisphere winter season. NCEP-Reanalysis data from 1958/59 to 1997/98 are used as input. The sensitivities of the results to particular parameters of the algorithm are discussed for both case studies and from a climatological point of view. Results show that the choice of settings is of major relevance especially for the tracking of smaller scale and fast moving systems. With an appropriate setting the algorithm is capable of automatically tracking different types of cyclones at the same time: Both fast moving and developing systems over the large ocean basins and smaller scale cyclones over the Mediterranean basin can be assessed. The climatology of cyclone variables, e.g., cyclone track density, cyclone counts, intensification rates, propagation speeds and areas of cyclogenesis and -lysis gives detailed information on typical cyclone life cycles for different regions. The lowering of the spatial and temporal resolution of the input data from full resolution T62/06h to T42/12h decreases the cyclone track density and cyclone counts. Reducing the temporal resolution alone contributes to a decline in the number of fast moving systems, which is relevant for the cyclone track density. Lowering spatial resolution alone mainly reduces the number of weak cyclones.
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A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in US landfalling systems. Here we present a tentative study, which examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1° to 0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and sub-tropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. Our results show that except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. We also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, we examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.
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This thesis develops an effective modeling and simulation procedure for a specific thermal energy storage system commonly used and recommended for various applications (such as an auxiliary energy storage system for solar heating based Rankine cycle power plant). This thermal energy storage system transfers heat from a hot fluid (termed as heat transfer fluid - HTF) flowing in a tube to the surrounding phase change material (PCM). Through unsteady melting or freezing process, the PCM absorbs or releases thermal energy in the form of latent heat. Both scientific and engineering information is obtained by the proposed first-principle based modeling and simulation procedure. On the scientific side, the approach accurately tracks the moving melt-front (modeled as a sharp liquid-solid interface) and provides all necessary information about the time-varying heat-flow rates, temperature profiles, stored thermal energy, etc. On the engineering side, the proposed approach is unique in its ability to accurately solve – both individually and collectively – all the conjugate unsteady heat transfer problems for each of the components of the thermal storage system. This yields critical system level information on the various time-varying effectiveness and efficiency parameters for the thermal storage system.
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The Regab pockmark is a large cold seep area located 10 km north of the Congo deep sea channel at about 3160 m water depth. The associated ecosystem hosts abundant fauna, dominated by chemosynthetic species such as the mussel Bathymodiolus aff. boomerang, vestimentiferan tubeworm Escarpia southwardae, and vesicomyid clams Laubiericoncha chuni and Christineconcha regab. The pockmark was visited during the West African Cold Seeps (WACS) cruise with RV Pourquoi Pas? in February 2011, and a 14,000-m**2 high-resolution videomosaic was constructed to map the most populated area and to describe the distribution of the dominant megafauna (mussels, tubeworms and clams). The results are compared with previous published works, which also included a videomosaic in the same area of the pockmark, based on images of the BIOZAIRE cruise in 2001. The 10-year variation of the faunal distribution is described and reveals that the visible abundance and distribution of the dominant megafaunal populations at Regab have not changed significantly, suggesting that the overall methane and sulfide fluxes that reach the faunal communities have been stable. Nevertheless, small and localized distribution changes in the clam community indicate that it is exposed to more transient fluxes than the other communities. Observations suggest that the main megafaunal aggregations at Regab are distributed around focused zones of high flux of methane-enriched fluids likely related to distinct smaller pockmark structures that compose the larger Regab pockmark. Although most results are consistent with the existing successional models for seep communities, some observations in the distribution of the Regab mussel population do not entirely fit into these models. This is likely due to the high heterogeneity of this site formed by the coalescence of several pockmarks. We hypothesize that the mussel distribution at Regab could also be controlled by the occurrence of zones of both intense methane fluxes and reduced efficiency of the anaerobic oxidation of methane possibly limiting tubeworm colonization.