Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Introduction to Soft Systems Modelling

Two lectures that introduce the idea of modelling in the large, and contrasts hard system and soft system modelling. The second lecture goes into detail on a number of specific methods for analysing a system (CATWOE and CSH) and on modelling a system (Systems Diagrams and Personas).

Beyond words: Visual metaphors that can demonstrate comprehension of KM as a paradoxical activity system

Following criticism that, in business and management, metaphor is largely verbal and primarily used to convey similarity, this paper explores how visual metaphors can communicate the anomalous and the paradoxical aspects of KM more concisely than words, whilst simultaneously presenting more tacit associations to stimulate creative thinking. It considers a series of 30 assessed posters that aimed to re-present six basic KM paradoxes through imagery that captures both the analogous and the anomalous. We found six categories of radial metaphors able to convey paradoxical complexity in a concise way. This has implications for organizations thinking about how to engage people with both the familiar and the strange. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reported medication errors after introducing an electronic medication management system

Aims and objectives
To explore the effects of introducing an electronic medication management system on reported medication errors.
Background
Computerised medication management systems have been found to improve medication safety; however, introducing medication management system into healthcare environments can create unanticipated or new problems and opportunities for medication error.
Design
Descriptive analysis of medication error reports.
Methods
This was a retrospective analysis of 359 incident reports drawn from the period of 1 May 2005–30 April 2006 across two hospital sites of a single not-for-profit private health service located in metropolitan Melbourne. Site A used a conventional pen and paper system for medication management, and Site B had introduced a computerised medication management system.
Results
Most medication errors occurred at the nurse administration (71·5%) and prescribing (16·4%) stages of delivery. The most common medication error type reported at Site A was omission (33%), and at Site B was wrong documentation (24·2%). A higher proportion of errors at the prescribing phase, and less nurse administration errors, were detected at Site B where the medication management system was in use. The incidence of other, less frequent errors was similar across the two hospital sites.
Conclusions
This examination of medication error reports suggests there are differences in the types of medication errors that are reported in association with the introduction of electronic medication management system compared to pen and paper system systems. The findings provide a new insight into the effects of introducing an electronic medication management system on the types of medication errors reported.
Relevance to clinical practice
The findings provide a new insight into the types of medication errors that are reported during implementation of an electronic medication management system. Extra support for physicians prescribing practices should be considered.

Adaptive fuzzy multi-surface sliding control of multiple-input and multiple-output autonomous flight systems

In this study, we proposed an adaptive fuzzy multi-surface sliding control (AFMSSC) for trajectory tracking of 6 degrees of freedom inertia coupled aerial vehicles with multiple inputs and multiple outputs (MIMO). It is shown that an adaptive fuzzy logic-based function approximator can be used to estimate the system uncertainties and an iterative multi-surface sliding control design can be carried out to control flight. Using AFMSSC on MIMO autonomous flight systems creates confluent control that can account for both matched and mismatched uncertainties, system disturbances and excitation in internal dynamics. It is proved that the AFMSSC system guarantees asymptotic output tracking and ultimate uniform boundedness of the tracking error. Simulation results are presented to validate the analysis.

Evaluation of Year-round Forage Management Systems for Spring- and Fall-Calving Beef Cows (A Progress Report)

A year-round grazing system for spring- and fall-calving cows was developed to compare animal production and performance, hay production and feeding, winter forage composition changes, and summer pasture yield and nutrient composition to that from a conventional, or minimal land system. Systems compared forage from smooth bromegrass-orchardgrass-birdsfoot trefoil pastures for both systems in the summer and corn crop residues and stockpiled grass-legume pastures for the year-round system to drylot hay feeding during winter for the minimal land system. The year-round grazing system utilized 1.67 acres of smooth bromegrassorchardgrass- birdsfoot trefoil (SB-O-T) pasture per cow in the summer, compared with 3.33 acres of (SB-O-T) pasture per cow in the control (minimal land) system. In addition to SB-O-T pastures, the year-round grazing system utilized 2.5 acres of tall fescue-red clover (TFRC) and 2.5 acres of smooth bromegrass-red clover (SBRC) per cow for grazing in both mid-summer and winter for fall- and spring-calving cows, respectively. First-cutting hay was harvested from the TF-RC and SB-RC pastures, and regrowth was grazed for approximately 45 days in the summer. These pastures were then fertilized with 40 lbs N/acre and stockpiled for winter grazing. Also utilized during the winter for spring-calving cows in the year-round grazing system were corn crop residue (CCR) pastures at an allowance of 2.5 acres per cow. In the minimal land system, hay was harvested from three-fourths of the area in SB-O-T pastures and stored for feeding in a drylot through the winter. Summer grazing was managed with rotational stocking for both systems, and winter grazing of stockpiled forages and corn crop residues by year-round system cows was managed by strip-stocking. Hay was fed to maintain a body condition score of 5 on a 9 point scale for spring-calving cows in both systems. Hay was supplemented as needed to maintain a body condition score of 3 for fall-calving cows nursing calves through the winter. Although initial condition scores for cows in both systems were different at the initiation of grazing for both winter and summer, there were no significant differences (P > .05) in overall condition score changes throughout both grazing seasons. In year 1, fall-calving cows in the year-round grazing system lost more (P < .05) body weight during winter than spring-calving cows in either system. In year 2, there were no differences seen in weight changes over winter for any group of cows. Average daily gains of fall calves in the yearround system were 1.9 lbs/day compared with weight gains of 2.5 lbs/day for spring calves from both systems. Yearly growing animal production from pastures for both years did not differ between systems when weight gains of stockers that grazed summer pastures in the year-round grazing system were added to weight gains of suckling calves. Carcass characteristics for all calves finished in the feedlot for both systems were similar. There were no significant differences in hay production between systems for year 1; however, amounts of hay needed to maintain cows were 923, 1373, 4732 lbs dry matter/cow for year-round fall-calving, year-round spring-calving, and minimal land spring-calving cows, respectively. In year 2, hay production per acre in the minimal land system was greater (P < .05) than for the year-round system, but the amounts of hay required per cow were 0, 0, and 4720 lbs dry matter/cow for yearround fall-calving, year-round spring-calving, and minimal land spring-calving cows, respectively.

Estratigrafia de seqüências do Grupo Itararé (Neocarbonifero-Eopermiano) na região de Rio Negro (PR) - Mafra (SC)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

From conceptual process models to running systems: A holistic approach for the configuration of enterprise system processes

This paper proposes a method which aims at increasing the efficiency of enterprise system implementations. First, we argue that existing process modeling languages that feature different degrees of abstraction for different user groups exist and are used for different purposes which makes it necessary to integrate them. We describe how to do this using the meta models of the involved languages. Second, we argue that an integrated process model based on the integrated meta model needs to be configurable and elaborate on the enabling mechanisms. We introduce a business example using SAP modeling techniques to illustrate the proposed method.

Identifying experts in information systems for system evaluations

This research-in-progress paper reports preliminary findings of a study that is designed to identify characteristics of an expert in the discipline of Information Systems (IS). The paper delivers a formative research model to depict characteristics of an expert with three additive constructs, using concepts derived from psychology, knowledge management and social-behaviour research. The paper then explores the formation and application ‘expertise’ using four investigative questions in the context of System Evaluations. Data have been gathered from 220 respondents representing three medium sized companies in India, using the SAP Enterprise Resource Planning system. The paper summarizes planned data analyses in construct validation, model testing and model application. A validated construct of expertise of IS will have a wide range of implications for research and practice.

Reactive image-based collision avoidance system for unmanned aircraft systems

Approximately 20 years have passed now since the NTSB issued its original recommendation to expedite development, certification and production of low-cost proximity warning and conflict detection systems for general aviation [1]. While some systems are in place (TCAS [2]), ¡¨see-and-avoid¡¨ remains the primary means of separation between light aircrafts sharing the national airspace. The requirement for a collision avoidance or sense-and-avoid capability onboard unmanned aircraft has been identified by leading government, industry and regulatory bodies as one of the most significant challenges facing the routine operation of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) in the national airspace system (NAS) [3, 4]. In this thesis, we propose and develop a novel image-based collision avoidance system to detect and avoid an upcoming conflict scenario (with an intruder) without first estimating or filtering range. The proposed collision avoidance system (CAS) uses relative bearing ƒÛ and angular-area subtended ƒê , estimated from an image, to form a test statistic AS C . This test statistic is used in a thresholding technique to decide if a conflict scenario is imminent. If deemed necessary, the system will command the aircraft to perform a manoeuvre based on ƒÛ and constrained by the CAS sensor field-of-view. Through the use of a simulation environment where the UAS is mathematically modelled and a flight controller developed, we show that using Monte Carlo simulations a probability of a Mid Air Collision (MAC) MAC RR or a Near Mid Air Collision (NMAC) RiskRatio can be estimated. We also show the performance gain this system has over a simplified version (bearings-only ƒÛ ). This performance gain is demonstrated in the form of a standard operating characteristic curve. Finally, it is shown that the proposed CAS performs at a level comparable to current manned aviations equivalent level of safety (ELOS) expectations for Class E airspace. In some cases, the CAS may be oversensitive in manoeuvring the owncraft when not necessary, but this constitutes a more conservative and therefore safer, flying procedures in most instances.