Lebanon and the Syrian conflict 2011-2013

2011年に発生したアラブ世界での民衆蜂起は、市民としてのアラブ人が近代的で民主的な国家を建設しようとする努力であった。その意味でアラブ民衆蜂起が発生した主な原因はもっぱら国内要因であり、そこに地域的、国際的な介入が加わったのである。アラブ民衆蜂起はシリアでは内戦に発展し、その影響は現在周辺国にも及んでいる。シリアが内戦に至った要因を理解するためには、シリアとそれを取り巻く現状を理解するだけでなく，シリアという国家が持つ歴史、なかでもフランス委任統治期の分断統治政策の失敗、ハーフィズ・アサドによる独裁体制の構築と継続、イスラエルによる干渉といったシリア現代史の影響を検討することが重要である。シリア内戦はレバノン、ヨルダン、トルコなどの周辺国にも少なからぬ影響を与えている。シリア難民の流出は、レバノンとヨルダンにとって社会と経済の負荷となっている。またシリア国内の分断と混乱は、レバノンの国内宗派対立をも先鋭化させた。他方でシリア内戦が長期化するにともない、イスラエルによるシリアとレバノンへの干渉が懸念されるようになっている。シリア内戦およびそれに対するイスラエルの対応は、結果的にレバノンへの大きな圧力となった。今後レバノンが主権国家としての安定的な地位を維持するためには、シリア内戦への政治的な関与を避け，国内各勢力の融和および各勢力の協調による国家運営を進めることがこれまで以上に必要である。

Germany’s engagement in the resolution of the Syrian conflict. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 194/25.01.2016

German Tornado Recce aircraft have been engaged in reconnaissance operations over Syria since January 2016. In December 2015 the German government and parliament decided that up to 1,200 Bundeswehr soldiers would take part in the international coalition fighting Islamic State in Syria. This decision marks a new chapter in Germany’s activity in the Middle East. The increasing destabilisation of the southern neighbourhood and the consequences this has for the EU and Germany have forced the German government to increase its level of engagement in the region. Even though Germany is a third-rate player in the Middle Eastern game, it is nonetheless ever more engaged politically and wants to be viewed as a neutral mediator between the competing actors in the region. It has also allocated more funds on regional development co-operation and humanitarian aid. Germany, whose attention has been directed towards Europe’s eastern neighbourhood, is currently turning its attention to the South. The Middle East (and Africa) is taking on increasing significance in German foreign and security policy. This may affect NATO’s eastern flank and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood since part of Germany’s instruments and funds may be redirected to the South.

Syyrian sisällissota : syitä ja taustatekijöitä

Arabikevään levitessä Syyriaan vuonna 2011 ajateltiin, että samoin kuin Tunisiassa ja Egyptissä, valta vaihtuisi Syyriassakin kohtuullisen rauhanomaisella tavalla. Niin ei tapahtunut, koska Syyrian geostrateginen asema ja liittolaisuussuhteet poikkeavat em. maihin verrattuna. Syyria kuuluu Iranin johtamaan shiia-akseliin. Osittain Iranin avulla al-Assad onkin voinut jatkaa yli kaksi vuotta presidenttinä sisällissodasta huolimatta. Nykyistä hallintoa tukevat myös Kiina ja Venäjä, kun taas valtaosa muista ulkovalloista tukee oppositiota.

Iran's domestic and foreign policies

Iran has a reputation of being a problematic country. Right now, it is proceeding with its nuclear program despite the opposition of the West and neighboring countries and the massive sanctions inflicted upon it. The country is also struggling with domestic issues. Half of Iran’s population belongs to different ethnic or religious minorities. They have poor rights to express their culture in the country, which is a cause of dissatisfaction among non-Shiite and non-Persian citizens. After the Arab Spring, the situation in Iran is getting more topical than ever. In the Syrian conflict, the Shiite Iran is constantly giving support to al-Assad’s regime. These are all factors that have aggravated the already irritated relations between Iran and the West.

Can France really stop them? : A study grounded on the realist perspective about the French foreign policy towards Syria as the root cause of the Phenomenon of French Foreign Fighters

During the Syrian conflict the number of European Foreign Fighters has increased exponentially and has become an ever-growing concern for European policymakers. This phenomenon presents host of major security challenges for European policymakers and governments. Among European countries, France provides the highest number of citizens who have gone to Syria to fight against Assad´s regime. The French authorities have estimated that by mid-2014, over 700 French citizens have left France and travelled to Syria to fight. Historically France has had a relationship with Syria which started with its role as a border-drawing colonial power. Grounded in a framework of realism, that emphasizes nation-states as the primary actor within the international system, the analysis concentrates on the role of France´s foreign policy on the Syria as push factor for terrorism and radicalization. This paper attempts to determinate a specific correlation between the policy that France has been conducting towards Syria between 2000 and 2015, and the phenomenon of French Foreign Fighters. Findings suggest that France´s foreign policy towards Syria is the main root cause of the French Foreign Fighters phenomenon.

Road to Proscription: The EU and Hezbollah since the Arab Spring. EU Diplomacy Paper 07/2013

The European Union (EU) has traditionally taken a rather nuanced view of the activities of Hezbollah. Despite historic links to violent activity, Europe always remained reluctant to place the Lebanese militant group on its list of terrorist organisations. Internal divergences among member states, as well as the strategic-realist goals of the EU in both Lebanon and the Middle East more generally meant that such a listing never materialised. This remained the case even in the initial turmoil following the Arab uprisings, when Hezbollah’s relatively moderating objectives were viewed as a force for stability. However, the EU shifted policy in July 2013 by listing the military wing of Hezbollah as a terrorist entity. This paper will investigate the reasons behind this decision, as well as the likely implications and effectiveness of the new policy. Two principal catalysts were behind the decision. The first was a Hezbollah-linked bombing in Bulgaria which provided the focal point around which a consensus of the EU member states could emerge in the Council. Secondly, the escalation both of the Syrian conflict and Hezbollah’s role in it provided a more political and strategic impetus for the decision. This paper maintains that although a change in policy was somewhat necessary, it is questionable whether the artificial separation of Hezbollah’s political and military wings and the symbolic proscription of the latter is the most propitious choice to achieve European objectives.

China on Russia’s intervention in Syria. OSW Commentary Number 193|19.01.2016

China has reacted positively to Russia’s military intervention in Syria. The Chinese government perceives it as an element of the global fight against terrorism, and has emphasised the fact that Russia was acting in response to a request by the Syrian government. At the same time, Beijing has argued that the Syrian conflict cannot be resolved by military means and that a political compromise is necessary.

La Políticas Exterior de Rusia en Oriente Medio. ¿Continuidad o Cambio?

El recorrido histórico por la política exterior de la URSS/Rusia hacia Oriente Medio en el último siglo presenta una línea de continuidad, apenas alterada por las dinámicas espaciotemporales vividas por el país. Rusia ha ejecutado una política exterior más orientada a responder a los movimientos norteamericanos en la región que a consolidar una presencia activa, de iniciativas propias. Sin embargo, la situación creada tras los levantamientos de 2011 y el conflicto sirio le han permitido a Moscú recuperar una activa presencia regional en temas político-militares y obtener ventajas económicas y comerciales. Con una limitada intervención militar en Siria, Rusia ha consolidado su posición mundial de gran jugador estratégico, y ha obtenido unas ventajas político-diplomáticas que le permiten ejecutar una política exterior dictada por el carácter instrumental de sus propios intereses.

Comparación de política exterior de Estados Unidos y Rusia con ocasión del conflicto en Siria (2011-2013)

El presente documento académico explica el papel del conflicto en Siria como escenario para la manifestación de la política exterior tanto de Estados Unidos como de Rusia, con el fin de demostrar que la guerra civil en Siria es una confrontación interna que se ha metamorfoseado como tensión diplomática y de confrontación de políticas exteriores de Rusia y EE.UU. Se hará uso del método de investigación cualitativo, pues este permitirá el análisis e interpretación de eventos, datos y conceptos importantes para el análisis del problema a estudiar. Por último, se hará uso de la teoría realista de las Relaciones Internacionales para tener una mejor perspectiva de los acontecimientos estudiados.

Libido Operandi or Conflict: Tafuri on Historic Preservation and Historiography

A brief analysis of an interview with Manfredo Tafuri (1991) on the relationship between historiography and judgements bound up in architectural preservation, restoration and conservation.

Effects of coping strategies, social support and work-nonwork conflict on shift worker's health

Objectives This study examines the direct and mediated effects of shift workers' coping strategies and social support on structural work-nonwork conflict and subjective health. Methods The participants were 172 registered female nurses, aged 21 to 40 years. They all worked full-time, on rapidly rotating, 8-hour shifts in metropolitan general hospitals. All the respondents completed a self-administered questionnaire requesting demographic information and data on sources of social support, work-nonwork conflict, and coping strategies. Results A path model with good fit (chi(2)=28.88, df=23, P>.23, CFI=0.97) demonstrated complex effects of social support and coping on structural work-nonwork conflict and health. Conclusions Structural work-nonwork conflict mediated the effects of social support from supervisors and emotionally expressive coping on psychological symptoms. Control of shifts mediated the effect of social support from supervisors on structural work-nonwork conflict. Disengagement coping had direct and mediated effects on psychological and physical health. However, it also had mediated effects, with the effect on psychological health being mediated by support from co-workers and the effect on physical symptoms being mediated by family support. Go-worker support mediated the effect of social support from supervisors on psychological symptoms. Overall, these findings support previous research and clarify the process by which coping strategies and social support affect structural work-nonwork conflict and health in shift work.