Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations (FORMS) for the western South Atlantic: Southeastern Brazil region

The multi-scale synoptic circulation system in the southeastern Brazil (SEBRA) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or ""features,"" are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the southward-flowing Brazil Current (BC), the eddies off Cabo Sao Tome (CST - 22 degrees S) and off Cabo Frio (CF - 23 degrees S), and the upwelling region off CF and CST. Their synoptic water-mass (T-S) structures are characterized and parameterized to develop temperature-salinity (T-S) feature models. Following [Gangopadhyay, A., Robinson, A.R., Haley, PJ., Leslie, W.J., Lozano, C.j., Bisagni, J., Yu, Z., 2003. Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (forms) in the gulf of maine and georges bank. Cont. Shelf Res. 23 (3-4), 317-353] methodology, a synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in this region is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and objectively analyzed with available background climatology in the deep region. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). A few first applications of this methodology are presented in this paper. These include the BC meandering, the BC-eddy interaction and the meander-eddy-upwelling system (MEUS) simulations. Preliminary validation results include realistic wave-growth and eddy formation and sustained upwelling. Our future plan includes the application of these feature models with satellite, in-situ data and advanced data-assimilation schemes for nowcasting and forecasting the SEBRA region. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sting jets in simulations of a real cyclone by two mesoscale models

The existence of sting jets as a potential source of damaging surface winds during the passage of extratropical cyclones has recently been recognized However, there are still very few published studies on the subject Furthermore, although ills known that other models are capable of reproducing sting jets, in the published literature only one numerical model [the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM)] has been used to numerically analyze these phenomena This article alms to improve our understanding of the processes that contribute to the development of sting jets and show that model differences affect the evolution of modeled sting jets A sting jet event during the passage of a cyclone over the United Kingdom on 26 February 2002 has been simulated using two mesoscale models namely the MetUM and the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) model to compare their performance Given the known critical importance of vertical resolution in the simulation of sting jets the vertical resolution of both models has been enhanced with respect to their operational versions Both simulations have been verified against surface measurements of maximum gusts, satellite imagery and Met Office operational synoptic analyses, as well as operational analyses from the ECMWF It is shown that both models are capable of reproducing sting jets with similar, though not identical. features Through the comparison of the results from these two models, the relevance of physical mechanisms, such as evaporative cooling and the release of conditional symmetric instability, in the generation and evolution of sting jets is also discussed

A comparison of stratosphere-troposphere transport in convection-permitting and convection-parameterizing simulations of three mesoscale convective systems

The transport of stratospheric air into the troposphere within deep convection was investigated using the Met Office Unified Model version 6.1. Three cases were simulated in which convective systems formed over the UK in the summer of 2005. For each of these three cases, simulations were performed on a grid having 4 km horizontal grid spacing in which the convection was parameterized and on a grid having 1 km horizontal grid spacing, which permitted explicit representation of the largest energy-containing scales of deep convection. Cross-tropopause transport was diagnosed using passive tracers that were initialized above the dynamically defined tropopause (2 potential vorticity unit surface) with a mixing ratio of 1. Although the synoptic-scale environment and triggering mechanisms varied between the cases, the total simulated transport was similar in all three cases. The total stratosphere-to-troposphere transport over the lifetime of the convective systems ranged from 25 to 100 kg/m2 across the simulated convective systems and resolutions, which corresponds to ∼5–20% of the total mass located within a stratospheric column extending 2 km above the tropopause. In all simulations, the transport into the lower troposphere (defined as below 3.5 km elevation) accounted for ∼1% of the total transport across the tropopause. In the 4 km runs most of the transport was due to parameterized convection, whereas in the 1 km runs the transport was due to explicitly resolved convection. The largest difference between the simulations with different resolutions occurred in the one case of midlevel convection considered, in which the total transport in the 1 km grid spacing simulation with explicit convection was 4 times that in the 4 km grid spacing simulation with parameterized convection. Although the total cross-tropopause transport was similar, stratospheric tracer was deposited more deeply to near-surface elevations in the convection-parameterizing simulations than in convection-permitting simulations.

The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change

The synoptic evolution and some meteorological impacts of the European winter storm Kyrill that swept across Western, Central, and Eastern Europe between 17 and 19 January 2007 are investigated. The intensity and large storm damage associated with Kyrill is explained based on synoptic and mesoscale environmental storm features, as well as on comparisons to previous storms. Kyrill appeared on weather maps over the US state of Arkansas about four days before it hit Europe. It underwent an explosive intensification over the Western North Atlantic Ocean while crossing a very intense zonal polar jet stream. A superposition of several favourable meteorological conditions west of the British Isles caused a further deepening of the storm when it started to affect Western Europe. Evidence is provided that a favourable alignment of three polar jet streaks and a dry air intrusion over the occlusion and cold fronts were causal factors in maintaining Kyrill's low pressure very far into Eastern Europe. Kyrill, like many other strong European winter storms, was embedded in a pre-existing, anomalously wide, north-south mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) gradient field. In addition to the range of gusts that might be expected from the synoptic-scale pressure field, mesoscale features associated with convective overturning at the cold front are suggested as the likely causes for the extremely damaging peak gusts observed at many lowland stations during the passage of Kyrill's cold front. Compared to other storms, Kyrill was by far not the most intense system in terms of core pressure and circulation anomaly. However, the system moved into a pre-existing strong MSLP gradient located over Central Europe which extended into Eastern Europe. This fact is considered determinant for the anomalously large area affected by Kyrill. Additionally, considerations of windiness in climate change simulations using two state-of-the-art regional climate models driven by ECHAM5 indicate that not only Central, but also Eastern Central Europe may be affected by higher surface wind speeds at the end of the 21st century. These changes are partially associated with the increased pressure gradient over Europe which is identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. Thus, with respect to the area affected, as well as to the synoptic and mesoscale storm features, it is proposed that Kyrill may serve as an interesting study case to assess future storm impacts.

The central European floods of August 2002: Part 2 - Synoptic causes and considerations with respect to climatic change

In the first part of this paper (Ulbrich et al. 2003), we gave a description of the August 2002 rainfall events and the resultant floods, in particular of the flood wave of the River Elbe. The extreme precipitation sums observed in the first half of the month were primarily associated with two rainfall episodes. The first episode occurred on 6/7 August 2002. The main rainfall area was situated over Lower Austria, the south-western part of the Czech Republic and south-eastern Germany. A severe flash flood was produced in the Lower Austrian Waldviertel (`forest quarter’ ). The second episode on 11± 13 August 2002 most severely affected the Erz Mountains and western parts of the Czech Republic. During this second episode 312mm of rain was recorded between 0600GMT on 12 August and 0600GMT on 13 August at the Zinnwald weather station in the ErzMountains, which is a new 24-hour record for Germany. The flash floods resulting from this rainfall episode and the subsequent Elbe flood produced the most expensive weatherrelated catastrophe in Europe in recent decades. In this part of the paper we discuss the meteorological conditions and physical mechanisms leading to the two main events. Similarities to the conditions that led to the recent summer floods of the River Oder in 1997 and the River Vistula in 2001 will be shown. This will lead us to a consideration of trends in extreme rainfall over Europe which are found in numerical simulations of anthropogenic climate change.

Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations

Heavy precipitation affected Central Europe in May/June 2013, triggering damaging floods both on the Danube and the Elbe rivers. Based on a modelling approach with COSMO-CLM, moisture fluxes, backward trajectories, cyclone tracks and precipitation fields are evaluated for the relevant time period 30 May–2 June 2013. We identify potential moisture sources and quantify their contribution to the flood event focusing on the Danube basin through sensitivity experiments: Control simulations are performed with undisturbed ERA-Interim boundary conditions, while multiple sensitivity experiments are driven with modified evaporation characteristics over selected marine and land areas. Two relevant cyclones are identified both in reanalysis and in our simulations, which moved counter-clockwise in a retrograde path from Southeastern Europe over Eastern Europe towards the northern slopes of the Alps. The control simulations represent the synoptic evolution of the event reasonably well. The evolution of the precipitation event in the control simulations shows some differences in terms of its spatial and temporal characteristics compared to observations. The main precipitation event can be separated into two phases concerning the moisture sources. Our modelling results provide evidence that the two main sources contributing to the event were the continental evapotranspiration (moisture recycling; both phases) and the North Atlantic Ocean (first phase only). The Mediterranean Sea played only a minor role as a moisture source. This study confirms the importance of continental moisture recycling for heavy precipitation events over Central Europe during the summer half year.

Synoptic drivers of 400 years of summer temperature and precipitation variability on Mt. Olympus, Greece

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a global warming hotspot, where future climate impacts are expected to have significant consequences on societal and ecosystem well-being. To put ongoing trends of summer climate into the context of past natural variability, we reconstructed climate from maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of Pinus heldreichii (1521–2010) and latewood width (LWW) of Pinus nigra (1617–2010) on Mt. Olympus, Greece. Previous research in the northeastern Mediterranean has primarily focused on inter-annual variability, omitting any low-frequency trends. The present study utilizes methods capable of retaining climatically driven long-term behavior of tree growth. The LWW chronology corresponds closely to early summer moisture variability (May–July, r = 0.65, p < 0.001, 1950–2010), whereas the MXD-chronology relates mainly to late summer warmth (July–September, r = 0.64, p < 0.001; 1899–2010). The chronologies show opposing patterns of decadal variability over the twentieth century (r = −0.68, p < 0.001) and confirm the importance of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (sNAO) for summer climate in the northeastern Mediterranean, with positive sNAO phases inducing cold anomalies and enhanced cloudiness and precipitation. The combined reconstructions document the late twentieth—early twenty-first century warming and drying trend, but indicate generally drier early summer and cooler late summer conditions in the period ~1700–1900 CE. Our findings suggest a potential decoupling between twentieth century atmospheric circulation patterns and pre-industrial climate variability. Furthermore, the range of natural climate variability stretches beyond summer moisture availabilityobserved in recent decades and thus lends credibility to the significant drying trends projected for this region in current Earth System Model simulations.

Numerical simulations of significant orographic precipitation in Madeira island

High-resolution simulations of high precipitation events with the MESO-NHmodel are presented, and also used to verify that increasing horizontal resolution in zones of complex orography, such as in Madeira island, improve the simulation of the spatial distribution and total precipitation. The simulations succeeded in reproducing the general structure of the cloudy systems over the ocean in the four periods considered of significant accumulated precipitation. The accumulated precipitation over theMadeirawas better represented with the 0.5 km horizontal resolution and occurred under four distinct synoptic situations. Different spatial patterns of the rainfall distribution over the Madeira have been identified

On The Consistency Of Monte Carlo Track Structure Dna Damage Simulations.

Monte Carlo track structures (MCTS) simulations have been recognized as useful tools for radiobiological modeling. However, the authors noticed several issues regarding the consistency of reported data. Therefore, in this work, they analyze the impact of various user defined parameters on simulated direct DNA damage yields. In addition, they draw attention to discrepancies in published literature in DNA strand break (SB) yields and selected methodologies. The MCTS code Geant4-DNA was used to compare radial dose profiles in a nanometer-scale region of interest (ROI) for photon sources of varying sizes and energies. Then, electron tracks of 0.28 keV-220 keV were superimposed on a geometric DNA model composed of 2.7 × 10(6) nucleosomes, and SBs were simulated according to four definitions based on energy deposits or energy transfers in DNA strand targets compared to a threshold energy ETH. The SB frequencies and complexities in nucleosomes as a function of incident electron energies were obtained. SBs were classified into higher order clusters such as single and double strand breaks (SSBs and DSBs) based on inter-SB distances and on the number of affected strands. Comparisons of different nonuniform dose distributions lacking charged particle equilibrium may lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the effect of energy on relative biological effectiveness. The energy transfer-based SB definitions give similar SB yields as the one based on energy deposit when ETH ≈ 10.79 eV, but deviate significantly for higher ETH values. Between 30 and 40 nucleosomes/Gy show at least one SB in the ROI. The number of nucleosomes that present a complex damage pattern of more than 2 SBs and the degree of complexity of the damage in these nucleosomes diminish as the incident electron energy increases. DNA damage classification into SSB and DSB is highly dependent on the definitions of these higher order structures and their implementations. The authors' show that, for the four studied models, different yields are expected by up to 54% for SSBs and by up to 32% for DSBs, as a function of the incident electrons energy and of the models being compared. MCTS simulations allow to compare direct DNA damage types and complexities induced by ionizing radiation. However, simulation results depend to a large degree on user-defined parameters, definitions, and algorithms such as: DNA model, dose distribution, SB definition, and the DNA damage clustering algorithm. These interdependencies should be well controlled during the simulations and explicitly reported when comparing results to experiments or calculations.

An Eulerian Immersed Boundary Method for flow simulations over stationary and moving rigid bodies

The fluid flow over bodies with complex geometry has been the subject of research of many scientists and widely explored experimentally and numerically. The present study proposes an Eulerian Immersed Boundary Method for flows simulations over stationary or moving rigid bodies. The proposed method allows the use of Cartesians Meshes. Here, two-dimensional simulations of fluid flow over stationary and oscillating circular cylinders were used for verification and validation. Four different cases were explored: the flow over a stationary cylinder, the flow over a cylinder oscillating in the flow direction, the flow over a cylinder oscillating in the normal flow direction, and a cylinder with angular oscillation. The time integration was carried out by a classical 4th order Runge-Kutta scheme, with a time step of the same order of distance between two consecutive points in x direction. High-order compact finite difference schemes were used to calculate spatial derivatives. The drag and lift coefficients, the lock-in phenomenon and vorticity contour plots were used for the verification and validation of the proposed method. The extension of the current method allowing the study of a body with different geometry and three-dimensional simulations is straightforward. The results obtained show a good agreement with both numerical and experimental results, encouraging the use of the proposed method.

Turbulence in collisionless plasmas: statistical analysis from numerical simulations with pressure anisotropy

In recent years, we have experienced increasing interest in the understanding of the physical properties of collisionless plasmas, mostly because of the large number of astrophysical environments (e. g. the intracluster medium (ICM)) containing magnetic fields that are strong enough to be coupled with the ionized gas and characterized by densities sufficiently low to prevent the pressure isotropization with respect to the magnetic line direction. Under these conditions, a new class of kinetic instabilities arises, such as firehose and mirror instabilities, which have been studied extensively in the literature. Their role in the turbulence evolution and cascade process in the presence of pressure anisotropy, however, is still unclear. In this work, we present the first statistical analysis of turbulence in collisionless plasmas using three-dimensional numerical simulations and solving double-isothermal magnetohydrodynamic equations with the Chew-Goldberger-Low laws closure (CGL-MHD). We study models with different initial conditions to account for the firehose and mirror instabilities and to obtain different turbulent regimes. We found that the CGL-MHD subsonic and supersonic turbulences show small differences compared to the MHD models in most cases. However, in the regimes of strong kinetic instabilities, the statistics, i.e. the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of density and velocity, are very different. In subsonic models, the instabilities cause an increase in the dispersion of density, while the dispersion of velocity is increased by a large factor in some cases. Moreover, the spectra of density and velocity show increased power at small scales explained by the high growth rate of the instabilities. Finally, we calculated the structure functions of velocity and density fluctuations in the local reference frame defined by the direction of magnetic lines. The results indicate that in some cases the instabilities significantly increase the anisotropy of fluctuations. These results, even though preliminary and restricted to very specific conditions, show that the physical properties of turbulence in collisionless plasmas, as those found in the ICM, may be very different from what has been largely believed.

PRECESSING JETS AND X-RAY BUBBLES FROM NGC 1275 (3C 84) IN THE PERSEUS GALAXY CLUSTER: A VIEW FROM THREE-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS

The Perseus galaxy cluster is known to present multiple and misaligned pairs of cavities seen in X-rays, as well as twisted kiloparsec-scale jets at radio wavelengths; both morphologies suggest that the active galactic nucleus (AGN) jet is subject to precession. In this work, we performed three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of the interaction between a precessing AGN jet and the warm intracluster medium plasma, whose dynamics are coupled to a Navarro-Frenk-White dark matter gravitational potential. The AGN jet inflates cavities that become buoyantly unstable and rise up out of the cluster core. We found that under certain circumstances precession can originate multiple pairs of bubbles. For the physical conditions in the Perseus cluster, multiple pairs of bubbles are obtained for a jet precession opening angle >40 degrees acting for at least three precession periods, reproducing both radio and X-ray maps well. Based on such conditions, assuming that the Bardeen-Peterson effect is dominant, we studied the evolution of the precession opening angle of this system. We were able to constrain the ratio between the accretion disk and the black hole angular momenta as 0.7-1.4. We were also able to constrain the present precession angle to 30 degrees-40 degrees, as well as the approximate age of the inflated bubbles to 100-150 Myr.

The merging cluster Abell 1758 revisited: multi-wavelength observations and numerical simulations

Context. Cluster properties can be more distinctly studied in pairs of clusters, where we expect the effects of interactions to be strong. Aims. We here discuss the properties of the double cluster Abell 1758 at a redshift z similar to 0.279. These clusters show strong evidence for merging. Methods. We analyse the optical properties of the North and South cluster of Abell 1758 based on deep imaging obtained with the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) archive Megaprime/Megacam camera in the g' and r' bands, covering a total region of about 1.05 x 1.16 deg(2), or 16.1 x 17.6 Mpc(2). Our X-ray analysis is based on archive XMM-Newton images. Numerical simulations were performed using an N-body algorithm to treat the dark-matter component, a semi-analytical galaxy-formation model for the evolution of the galaxies and a grid-based hydrodynamic code with a parts per million (PPM) scheme for the dynamics of the intra-cluster medium. We computed galaxy luminosity functions (GLFs) and 2D temperature and metallicity maps of the X-ray gas, which we then compared to the results of our numerical simulations. Results. The GLFs of Abell 1758 North are well fit by Schechter functions in the g' and r' bands, but with a small excess of bright galaxies, particularly in the r' band; their faint-end slopes are similar in both bands. In contrast, the GLFs of Abell 1758 South are not well fit by Schechter functions: excesses of bright galaxies are seen in both bands; the faint-end of the GLF is not very well defined in g'. The GLF computed from our numerical simulations assuming a halo mass-luminosity relation agrees with those derived from the observations. From the X-ray analysis, the most striking features are structures in the metal distribution. We found two elongated regions of high metallicity in Abell 1758 North with two peaks towards the centre. In contrast, Abell 1758 South shows a deficit of metals in its central regions. Comparing observational results to those derived from numerical simulations, we could mimic the most prominent features present in the metallicity map and propose an explanation for the dynamical history of the cluster. We found in particular that in the metal-rich elongated regions of the North cluster, winds had been more efficient than ram-pressure stripping in transporting metal-enriched gas to the outskirts. Conclusions. We confirm the merging structure of the North and South clusters, both at optical and X-ray wavelengths.

Polarization effects in molecular dynamics simulations of glass-formers Ca(NO(3))(2)center dot nH(2)O, n=4, 6, and 8

Thermodynamics, equilibrium structure, and dynamics of glass-forming liquids Ca(NO(3))(2)center dot nH(2)O, n=4, 6, and 8, have been investigated by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. A polarizable model was considered for H(2)O and NO(3)- on the basis of previous fluctuating charge models for pure water and the molten salt 2Ca(NO(3))(2)center dot 3KNO(3). Similar thermodynamic properties have been obtained with nonpolarizable and polarizable models. The glass transition temperature, T(g), estimated from MD simulations was dependent on polarization, in particular the dependence of T(g) with electrolyte concentration. Significant polarization effects on equilibrium structure were observed in cation-cation, cation-anion, and water-water structures. Polarization increases the diffusion coefficient of H(2)O, but does not change significantly the diffusion coefficients of ions. Viscosity decreases upon inclusion of polarization, but the conductivity calculated with the polarizable model is smaller than the nonpolarizable model because polarization enhances anion-cation interactions.

Fragility and glassy dynamics of 2Ca(NO(3))(2)center dot 3KNO(3) under pressure: Molecular dynamics simulations

Molecular dynamics simulations of the glass-forming liquid 2Ca(NO(3))(2)center dot 3KNO(3) (CKN) were performed from high temperature liquid states down to low temperature glassy states at six different pressures from 10(-4) to 5.0 GPa. The temperature dependence of the structural relaxation time indicates that the fragility of liquid CKN changes with pressure. In line with recent proposal [Scopigno , Science 302, 849 (2003)], the change on liquid fragility is followed by a proportional change of the nonergodicity factor of the corresponding glass at low temperature. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.