A disease evolution model with uncertain parameters

In this study we consider the SIS epidemiological model (susceptible-infected-susceptible) in which the transmission and recuperation rates are considered fuzzy sets. The concepts of possibility measures and fuzzy expectancy value are used to obtain the basic reproduction value for infected groups with different viral charge.

Antimicrobial activity of triantibiotic paste, 2% chlorhexidine gel, and calcium hydroxide on an intraoral-infected dentin biofilm model

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the antimicrobial activity of calcium hydroxide, 2% chlorhexidine gel, and triantibiotic paste (ie, metronidazole, minocycline, and ciprofloxacin) by using an intraorally infected dentin biofilm model. Methods: Forty bovine dentin specimens were infected intraorally using a removable orthodontic device in order to induce the biofilm colonization of the dentin. Then, the samples were treated with the medications for 7 days. Saline solution was used as the control. Two evaluations were performed: immediately after the elimination of the medication and after incubation in brain-heart infusion medium for 24 hours. The Live/Dead technique (Invitrogen, Eugene, OR) and a confocal microscope were used to obtain the percentage of live cells. Nonparametric statistical tests were performed to show differences in the percentage of live cells among the groups (P < .05). Results: Calcium hydroxide and 2% chlorhexidine gel did not show statistical differences in the immediate evaluation. However, after application of the brain-heart infusion medium for 24 hours, 2% gel chlorhexidine showed a statistically lesser percentage of live cells in comparison with calcium hydroxide. The triantibiotic paste significantly showed a lower percentage of live cells in comparison with the 2% chlorhexidine gel and calcium hydroxide groups in the immediate and secondary (after 24 hours) evaluations. Conclusions: The triantibiotic paste was most effective at killing the bacteria in the biofilms on the intraorally infected dentin model in comparison with 2% chlorhexidine gel and calcium hydroxide

Nature of the Epidemic Threshold for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Dynamics in Networks

We develop an analytical approach to the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model that allows us to unravel the true origin of the absence of an epidemic threshold in heterogeneous networks. We find that a delicate balance between the number of high degree nodes in the network and the topological distance between them dictates the existence or absence of such a threshold. In particular, small-world random networks with a degree distribution decaying slower than an exponential have a vanishing epidemic threshold in the thermodynamic limit.

Complexity and anisotropy in host morphology make populations less susceptible to epidemic outbreaks

One of the challenges in epidemiology is to account for the complex morphological structure of hosts such as plant roots, crop fields, farms, cells, animal habitats and social networks, when the transmission of infection occurs between contiguous hosts. Morphological complexity brings an inherent heterogeneity in populations and affects the dynamics of pathogen spread in such systems. We have analysed the influence of realistically complex host morphology on the threshold for invasion and epidemic outbreak in an SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemiological model. We show that disorder expressed in the host morphology and anisotropy reduces the probability of epidemic outbreak and thus makes the system more resistant to epidemic outbreaks. We obtain general analytical estimates for minimally safe bounds for an invasion threshold and then illustrate their validity by considering an example of host data for branching hosts (salamander retinal ganglion cells). Several spatial arrangements of hosts with different degrees of heterogeneity have been considered in order to separately analyse the role of shape complexity and anisotropy in the host population. The estimates for invasion threshold are linked to morphological characteristics of the hosts that can be used for determining the threshold for invasion in practical applications.

Rumor Propagation Model: An Equilibrium Study

Compartmental epidemiological models have been developed since the 1920s and successfully applied to study the propagation of infectious diseases. Besides, due to their structure, in the 1960s an interesting version of these models was developed to clarify some aspects of rumor propagation, considering that spreading an infectious disease or disseminating information is analogous phenomena. Here, in an analogy with the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemiological model, the ISS (Ignorant-Spreader-Stifler) rumor spreading model is studied. By using concepts from the Dynamical Systems Theory, stability of equilibrium points is established, according to propagation parameters and initial conditions. Some numerical experiments are conducted in order to validate the model.

Effect of disease-selective predation on prey infected by contact and external sources

We propose and analyze a simple mathematical model for susceptible prey (S)–infected prey (I)–predator (P) interaction, where the susceptible prey population (S) is infected directly from external sources as well as through contact with infected class (I) and the predator completely avoids consuming the infected prey. The model is analyzed to obtain different thresholds of the key parameters under which the system exhibits stability around the biologically feasible equilibria. Through numerical simulations we display the effects of external infection and the infection through contact on the system dynamics in the absence as well as in the presence of the predator. We compare the system dynamics when infection occurs only through contact, with that when it occurs through contact and external sources. Our analysis demonstrates that under a disease-selective predation, stability and oscillations of the system is determined by two key parameters: the external infection rate and the force of infection through contact. Due to the introduction of external infection, the predator and the prey population show limit-cycle oscillations over a range parametric values. We suggest that while predicting the dynamics of such an eco-epidemiological system, the modes of infection and the infection rates might be carefully investigated.

Stochastic lattice model describing a vector-borne disease

We employ the approach of stochastic dynamics to describe the dissemination of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, and we focus our attention on the characterization of the threshold of the epidemic. The coexistence space comprises two representative spatial structures for both human and mosquito populations. The human population has its evolution described by a process that is similar to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) dynamics. The population of mosquitoes follows a dynamic of the type of the Susceptible Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. The coexistence space is a bipartite lattice constituted by two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations for the densities and the two-site correlations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. We present a precise deØnition of the reproductive ratio which reveals the importance of the correlations developed in the early stage of the disease. According to our deØnition, the reproductive rate is directed related to the conditional probability of the occurrence of a susceptible human (mosquito) given the presence in the neighborhood of an infected mosquito (human). The threshold of the epidemic as well as the phase transition between the epidemic and the non-epidemic states are also obtained by performing Monte Carlo simulations. References: [1] David R. de Souza, T^ania Tom∂e, , Suani R. T. Pinho, Florisneide R. Barreto and M∂ario J. de Oliveira, Phys. Rev. E 87, 012709 (2013). [2] D. R. de Souza, T. Tom∂e and R. M. ZiÆ, J. Stat. Mech. P03006 (2011).

Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdos-Renyi (ER), Barabasi-Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered.

Simulating the impact of four control strategies on the population dynamics of Neospora caninum infection in Swiss dairy cattle

A dynamic deterministic simulation model was developed to assess the impact of different putative control strategies on the seroprevalence of Neospora caninum in female Swiss dairy cattle. The model structure comprised compartments of "susceptible" and "infected" animals (SI-model) and the cattle population was divided into 12 age classes. A reference model (Model 1) was developed to simulate the current (status quo) situation (present seroprevalence in Switzerland 12%), taking into account available demographic and seroprevalence data of Switzerland. Model 1 was modified to represent four putative control strategies: testing and culling of seropositive animals (Model 2), discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows (Model 3), chemotherapeutic treatment of calves from seropositive cows (Model 4), and vaccination of susceptible and infected animals (Model 5). Models 2-4 considered different sub-scenarios with regard to the frequency of diagnostic testing. Multivariable Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of uncertainty in input parameters. A policy of annual testing and culling of all seropositive cattle in the population reduced the seroprevalence effectively and rapidly from 12% to <1% in the first year of simulation. The control strategies with discontinued breeding with offspring from all seropositive cows, chemotherapy of calves and vaccination of all cattle reduced the prevalence more slowly than culling but were still very effective (reduction of prevalence below 2% within 11, 23 and 3 years of simulation, respectively). However, sensitivity analyses revealed that the effectiveness of these strategies depended strongly on the quality of the input parameters used, such as the horizontal and vertical transmission factors, the sensitivity of the diagnostic test and the efficacy of medication and vaccination. Finally, all models confirmed that it was not possible to completely eradicate N. caninum as long as the horizontal transmission process was not interrupted.

Avaliação da susceptibilidade de camundongos BALB/c e Swiss, hamster e Proechimys roberti à infecção por Leishmania (Viannia) Naiffi e Leishmania (Viannia) Lindenbergi

Leishmania (Viannia) naiffi e Leishmania (Viannia) lindenbergi são espécies causadoras da leishmaniose cutânea na Amazônia e apresentam grande similaridade no seu perfil isoenzimático, anticorpos monoclonais e produção de infecção inaparente em hamsters. O fato de não se ter um modelo experimental altamente suscetível à infecção por L. (V.) naiffi e L. (V.) lindenbergi, o objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a susceptibilidade de camundongos BALB/c e Swiss, hamster e Proechimys roberti à infecção por essas duas espécies. Foram preparados inóculos com glândulas salivares e sem glândulas, associados às formas promastigotas das duas espécies de Leishmania. Doze animais de cada espécie foram divididos em quatro grupos (machos e fêmeas inoculados com glândulas salivares e machos e fêmeas sem glândulas salivares). Todos foram inoculados intradermicamente na face dorsal das duas patas traseiras e foram observados durante 90 dias. No período de 30, 60 e 90 dias pós-inoculação, os animais foram sacrificados e diferentes fragmentos de pele do local de inoculação foram divididos e utilizados na cultura in vitro, exame microscópico direto e reação em cadeia da polimerase (PCR). Não foi possível observar lesões nos animais inoculados com L. (V.) naiffi e L. (V.) lindenbergi tanto na presença ou ausência de glândulas salivares. Assim como, formas amastigotas durante 30, 60 e 90 dias após a inoculação. Na cultura, todos os animais inoculados com L. (V.) lindenbergi não desenvolveram formas promastigotas. Por outro lado, todos os grupos de camundongos BALB/c inoculados com L. (V.) naiffi apresentaram positividade quando sacrificados com 30 dias após inoculação e até 90 dias nos machos inoculados com glândulas salivares e fêmeas inoculadas sem glândulas salivares. A PCR apresentou baixa sensibilidade comparada à cultura. Desse modo, concluímos que L. (V.) naiffi e L.(V.) lindenbergi são espécies que apresentam baixa infectividade e nenhum dos animais utilizados no estudo podem ser considerados modelo experimental altamente susceptíveis à infecção por essas duas espécies.

An infant mouse model of brain damage in pneumococcal meningitis

Bacterial meningitis due to Streptococcus pneumoniae is associated with an significant mortality rate and persisting neurologic sequelae including sensory-motor deficits, seizures, and impairments of learning and memory. The histomorphological correlate of these sequelae is a pattern of brain damage characterized by necrotic tissue damage in the cerebral cortex and apoptosis of neurons in the hippocampal dentate gyrus. Different animal models of pneumococcal meningitis have been developed to study the pathogenesis of the disease. To date, the infant rat model is unique in mimicking both forms of brain damage documented in the human disease. In the present study, we established an infant mouse model of pneumococcal meningitis. Eleven-days-old C57BL/6 (n = 299), CD1 (n = 42) and BALB/c (n = 14) mice were infected by intracisternal injection of live Streptococcus pneumoniae. Sixteen hours after infection, all mice developed meningitis as documented by positive bacterial cultures of the cerebrospinal fluid. Sixty percent of infected C57BL/6 mice survived more than 40 h after infection (50% of CD1, 0% of BALB/c). Histological evaluations of brain sections revealed apoptosis in the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus in 27% of infected C57BL/6 and in 5% of infected CD1 mice. Apoptosis was confirmed by immunoassaying for active caspase-3 and by TUNEL staining. Other forms of brain damage were found exclusively in C57BL/6, i.e. caspase-3 independent (pyknotic) cell death in the dentate gyrus in 2% and cortical damage in 11% of infected mice. This model may prove useful for studies on the pathogenesis of brain injury in childhood bacterial meningitis.

Recombinant DNA immunotherapy ameliorate established airway allergy in a IL-10 dependent pathway

Background Previous studies have established that mycobacterial infections ameliorate allergic inflammation. However, a non-infectious approach that controls allergic responses might represent a safer and more promising strategy. The 60-65 kDa heat shock protein (Hsp) family is endowed with anti-inflammatory properties, but it is still unclear whether and how single mycobacterial Hsp control allergic disorders. Objective Therefore, in this study we determined whether the administration of Mycobacterial leprae Hsp65 expressed by recombinant a DNA plasmid could attenuate a previously established allergic response. Methods We used an experimental model of airway allergic inflammation to test the effects of immunotherapy with DNA encoding Hsp65. Allergic mice, previously sensitized and challenged with ovalbumin, were treated with tree intramuscular doses of recombinant DNA encoding Hsp65. After treatment, mice received a second allergen challenge and the allergic response was measured. Results We found that immunotherapy attenuated eosinophilia, pulmonary inflammation, Th2 cytokine and mucus production. Moreover, we showed that the inhibition of allergic response is dependent on IL-10 production. Both Hsp65 and allergen-specific IL-10-producing cells contributed to this effect. Cells transferred from DNA-immunized mice to allergic mice migrated to allergic sites and down-modulated the Th2 response. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance Our findings clearly show that immunotherapy with DNA encoding Hsp65 can attenuate an established Th2 allergic inflammation through an IL-10-dependent mechanism; moreover, the migration of allergen-and Hsp65-specific cells to the allergic sites exerts a fundamental role. This work represents a novel contribution to the understanding of immune regulation by Hsp65 in allergic diseases.

Critical behavior of the susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice

By means of numerical simulations and epidemic analysis, the transition point of the stochastic asynchronous susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice is found to be c(0)=0.176 500 5(10), where c is the probability a chosen infected site spontaneously recovers rather than tries to infect one neighbor. This point corresponds to an infection/recovery rate of lambda(c)=(1-c(0))/c(0)=4.665 71(3) and a net transmissibility of (1-c(0))/(1+3c(0))=0.538 410(2), which falls between the rigorous bounds of the site and bond thresholds. The critical behavior of the model is consistent with the two-dimensional percolation universality class, but local growth probabilities differ from those of dynamic percolation cluster growth, as is demonstrated explicitly.

A new scale-invariant ratio and finite-size scaling for the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered model

The critical behavior of the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice is obtained by numerical simulations and finite-size scaling. The order parameter as well as the distribution in the number of recovered individuals is determined as a function of the infection rate for several values of the system size. The analysis around criticality is obtained by exploring the close relationship between the present model and standard percolation theory. The quantity UP, equal to the ratio U between the second moment and the squared first moment of the size distribution multiplied by the order parameter P, is shown to have, for a square system, a universal value 1.0167(1) that is the same for site and bond percolation, confirming further that the SIR model is also in the percolation class.

Explaining the high number of infected people by dengue in Rio de Janeiro in 2008 using a susceptible-infective-recovered model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)