Weather variability, sunspots, and the blooms of cyanobacteria

The roles of weather variability and sunspots in the occurrence of cyanobacteria blooms, were investigated using cyanobacteria cell data collected from the Fred Haigh Dam, Queensland, Australia. Time series generalized linear model and classification and regression (CART) model were used in the analysis. Data on notified cell numbers of cyanobacteria and weather variables over the periods 2001 and 2005 were provided by the Australian Department of Natural Resources and Water, and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. The results indicate that monthly minimum temperature (relative risk [RR]: 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.25) and rainfall (RR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.03-1.20) had a positive association, but relative humidity (RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91-0.98) and wind speed (RR:0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98) were negatively associated with the cyanobacterial numbers, after adjustment for seasonality and auto-correlation. The CART model showed that the cyanobacteria numbers were best described by an interaction between minimum temperature, relative humidity, and sunspot numbers. When minimum temperature exceeded 18%C and relative humidity was under 66%, the number of cyanobacterial cells rose by 2.15-fold. We conclude that the weather variability and sunspot activity may affect cyanobacterial blooms in dams.

On the out of phase appearance of large-scale diffuse magnetic field of the sun with respect to sunspots

We assume the large-scale diffuse magnetic field of the Sun to originate from the poloidal component of a dynamo operating at the base of the convection zone, whereas the sunspots are due to the toroidal component. The evolution of the poloidal component is studied to model the poleward migration of the diffuse field seen on the solar surface and the polar reversal at the time of sunspot maxima (Dikpati and Choudhuri 1994, 1995).

A 139-year dendroclimatic cycle, cultural/environmental history, sunspots, and longer-term cycles

Higher resolution time-stratigraphic records suggest correlation of lower frequency paleoclimatic events with Milankovitch obliquity/precessional cycles and of higher frequency events with the evidently resonance-related Pettersson maximum tidal force (MTF) model. Subsequently published records, mainly pollen, seemingly confirm that atmospheric resonances may have modulated past climatic changes in phase with average MTF cycles of 1668, 1112, and 556 years, as calculated in anomalistic years from planetary movements by Stacey. Stacey accepts Pettersson's dating of AD 1433 (517 YBP) for the last major perihelian spring tide based solely on calculations of moon- and earth-orbital relations to the sun. Use of AD 1433 as an origin for the tidal resonance model seemingly continues to provide a best fit for the timing of cyclical patterns in the presented paleoclimate time series.

Observations of rotating sunspots from TRACE

Brown, D.S., Nightingale, R.W., Alexander, D., Schrijver, C.J., Metcalf, T.R., Shine, R.A., Title, A.M. and Wolfson, C.J., 2003, Observations of rotating sunspots from TRACE, Solar Physics, 216, 79-108.

The Impact of Sunspots on the Interpretation of Coronal Observations of the O VI Doublet

Morgan, Huw; Habbal, S. R., 'The impact of sunspots on the interpretation of coronal observations of the OVI doublet', The Astrophysical Journal (2005) 630(2) pp.L189-L192 RAE2008

Statistics sunspots and settlement: Influences on sum of probability curves

Large data sets of radiocarbon dates are becoming a more common feature of archaeological research. The sheer numbers of radiocarbon dates produced, however, raise issues of representation and interpretation. This paper presents a methodology which both reduces the visible impact of dating fluctuations, but also takes into consideration the influence of the underlying radiocarbon calibration curve. By doing so, it may be possible to distinguish between periods of human activity in early medieval Ireland and the statistical tails produced by radiocarbon calibration.

On the Source of Propagating Slow Magnetoacoustic Waves in Sunspots

Recent high-resolution observations of sunspot oscillations using simultaneously operated ground- and space-based telescopes reveal the intrinsic connection between different layers of the solar atmosphere. However, it is not clear whether these oscillations are externally driven or generated in situ. We address this question by using observations of propagating slow magnetoacoustic waves along a coronal fan loop system. In addition to the generally observed decreases in oscillation amplitudes with distance, the observed wave amplitudes are also found to be modulated with time, with similar variations observed throughout the propagation path of the wave train. Employing multi-wavelength and multi-instrument data, we study the amplitude variations with time as the waves propagate through different layers of the solar atmosphere. By comparing the amplitude modulation period in different layers, we find that slow magnetoacoustic waves observed in sunspots are externally driven by photospheric p-modes, which propagate upward into the corona before becoming dissipated.

Sunspots in action;

Bibliography: p. 231-237.

An elementary introduction to solar dynamo theory

The cyclically varying magnetic field of the Sun is believed to be produced by the hydromagnetic dynamo process. We first summarize the relevant observational data pertaining to sunspots and solar cycle. Then we review the basic principles of MHD needed to develop the dynamo theory. This is followed by a discussion how bipolar sunspots form due to magnetic buoyancy of flux tubes formed at the base of the solar convection zone. Following this, we come to the heart of dynamo theory. After summarizing the basic ideas of a turbulent dynamo and the basic principles of its mean field formulation, we present the famous dynamo wave solution, which was supposed to provide a model for the solar cycle. Finally we point out how a flux transport dynamo can circumvent some of the difficulties associated with the older dynamo models.

Effect of Turbulence on Emerging Magnetic Flux Tubes in the Convection Zone

Working under the hypothesis that magnetic flux in the sun is generated at the bottom of the convection zone, Choudhuri and Gilman (1987; Astrophys. J. 316, 788) found that a magnetic flux tube symmetric around the rotation axis, when released at the bottom of the convection zone, gets deflected by the Coriolis force and tends to move parallel to the rotation axis as it rises in the convection zone. As a result, all the flux emerges at rather high latitudes and the flux observed at the typical sunspot latitudes remains unexplained. Choudhuri (1989; Solar Physics, in press) finds that non-axisymmetric perturbations too cannot subdue the Coriolis force. In this paper, we no longer treat the convection zone to be passive as in the previous papers, but we consider the role of turbulence in the convection zone in inhibiting the Coriolis force. The interaction of the flux tubes with the turbulence is treated in a phenomenological way as follows: (1) Large scale turbulence on the scale of giant cells can physically drag the tubes outwards, thus pulling the flux towards lower latitudes by dominating over the Coriolis force. (2) Small scale turbulence of the size of the tubes can exchange angular momentum with the tube, thus suppressing the growth of the Coriolis force and making the tubes emerge at lower latitudes. Numerical simulations show that the giant cells can drag the tubes and make them emerge at lower latitufes only if the velocities within the giant cells are unrealistically large of if the radii of the flux tubes are as small as 10 km. However, small scale turbulence can successfully suppress the growth of the Coriolis force if the tubes have radii smaller than about 300 km which may not be unreasonable. Such flux tubes can then emerge at low latitudes where sunspots are seen.

On the Large-Scale Diffuse Magnetic Field of the Sun

Although the sunspots migrate towards the equator, the large-scale weak diffuse magnetic fields of the Sun migrate poleward with the solar cycle, the polar field reversing at the time of the sunspot maxima. We apply the vector model of Dikpati and Choudhuri (1994, Paper I) to fit these observations. The dynamo layer at the base of the convection zone is taken to be the source of the diffuse field, which is then evolved in the convection zone subject to meridional circulation and turbulent diffusion. We find that the longitudinally averaged observational data can be fitted reasonably well both for positive and negative values of the alpha-effect by adjusting the subsurface meridional flow suitably. The model will be extended in a future paper to include the decay of active regions as an extra source of the diffuse field, which may be necessary to explain the probable phase lag between B-tau and B-phi at lower latitudes.

The origin of the solar magnetic cycle

After summarizing the relevant observational data, we discuss how a study of flux tube dynamics in the solar convection zone helps us to understand the formation of sunspots. Then we introduce the flux transport dynamo model and assess its success in modelling both the solar cycle and its departures from strictly periodic behaviour.

Solar dynamo models with realistic internal rotation

Solar dynamo models based on differential rotation inferred from helioseismology tend to produce rather strong magnetic activity at high solar latitudes, in contrast to the observed fact that sunspots appear at low latitudes. We show that a meridional circulation penetrating below the tachocline can solve this problem.

Studies of grand minima in sunspot cycles by using a flux transport solar dynamo model

We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultaneous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results: (a) fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; (b) both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; (c) distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; (d) the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, with a coherence time of about 30 yr being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question of whether the Babcock-Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an alpha-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this alpha-effect is suitably fine-tuned.

The irregularities of the sunspot cycle and their theoretical modelling

The 11-year sunspot cycle has many irregularities, the most prominent amongst them being the grand minima when sunspots may not be seen for several cycles. After summarizing the relevant observational data about the irregularities, we introduce the flux transport dynamo model, the currently most successful theoretical model for explaining the 11-year sunspot cycle. Then we analyze the respective roles of nonlinearities and random fluctuations in creating the irregularities. We also discuss how it has recently been realized that the fluctuations in meridional circulation also can be a source of irregularities. We end by pointing out that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation and fluctuations in meridional circulation together can explain the occurrences of grand minima.