The hazard potential of the western segment of the Makran subduction zone, northern Arabian Sea

Evaluating the hazard potential of the Makran subduction zone requires understanding the previous records of the large earthquakes and tsunamis. We address this problem by searching for earthquake and tectonic proxies along the Makran Coast and linking those observations with the available constraints on historical seismicity and the tell-tale characteristics of sea floor morphology. The earthquake of Mw 8.1 of 1945 and the consequent tsunami that originated on the eastern part of the Makran are the only historically known hazardous events in this region. The seismic status of the western part of the subduction zone outside the rupture area of the 1945 earthquake remains an enigma. The near-shore shallow stratigraphy of the central part of Makran near Chabahar shows evidence of seismically induced liquefaction that we attribute to the distant effects of the 1945 earthquake. The coastal sites further westward around Jask are remarkable for the absence of liquefaction features, at least at the shallow level. Although a negative evidence, this possibly implies that the western part of Makran Coast region may not have been impacted by near-field large earthquakes in the recent past-a fact also supported by the analysis of historical data. On the other hand, the elevated marine terraces on the western Makran and their uplift rates are indicative of comparable degree of long-term tectonic activity, at least around Chabahar. The offshore data suggest occurrences of recently active submarine slumps on the eastern part of the Makran, reflective of shaking events, owing to the great 1945 earthquake. The ocean floor morphologic features on the western segment, on the contrary, are much subdued and the prograding delta lobes on the shelf edge also remain intact. The coast on the western Makran, in general, shows indications of progradation and uplift. The various lines of evidence thus suggest that although the western segment is potentially seismogenic, large earthquakes have not occurred there in the recent past, at least during the last 600 years. The recurrence period of earthquakes may range up to 1,000 years or more, an assessment based on the age of the youngest dated coastal ridge. The long elapsed time points to the fact that the western segment may have accumulated sufficient slip to produce a major earthquake.

High-temperature, high-pressure granulites (retrogressed eclogites) in the central region of the Lewisian, NW Scotland: Crustal-scale subduction in the Neoarchaean

Eclogites and associated high-pressure (HP) rocks in collisional and accretionary orogenic belts preserve a record of subduction and exhumation, and provide a key constraint on the tectonic evolution of the continents. Most eclogites that formed at high pressures but low temperatures at > 10-11 kbar and 450-650 degrees C can be interpreted as a result of subduction of cold oceanic lithosphere. A new class of high-temperature (HT) eclogites that formed above 900 degrees C and at 14 to 30 kbar occurs in the deep continental crust, but their geodynamic significance and processes of formation are poorly understood. Here we show that Neoarchaean mafic-ultramafic complexes in the central granulite facies region of the Lewisian in NW Scotland contain HP/HT garnet-bearing granulites (retrogressed eclogites), gabbros, Iherzolites, and websterites, and that the HP granulites have garnets that contain inclusions of omphacite. From thermodynamic modeling and compositional isopleths we calculate that peak eclogite-facies metamorphism took place at 24-22 kbar and 1060-1040 degrees C. The geochemical signature of one (G-21) of the samples shows a strong depletion of Eu indicating magma fractionation at a crustal level. The Sm-Nd isochron ages of HP phases record different cooling ages of ca. 2480 and 2330 Ma. We suggest that the layered mafic-ultramafic complexes, which may have formed in an oceanic environment, were subducted to eclogite depths, and exhumed as HP garnet-bearing orogenic peridotites. The layered complexes were engulfed by widespread orthogneisses of tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite (TTG) composition with granulite facies assemblages. We propose two possible tectonic models: (1) the fact that the relicts of eclogitic complexes are so widespread in the Scourian can be taken as evidence that a >90 km x 40 km-size slab of continental crust containing mafic-ultramafic complexes was subducted to at least 70 km depth in the late Archaean. During exhumation the gneiss protoliths were retrogressed to granulite facies assemblages, but the mafic-ultramafic rocks resisted retrogression. (2) The layered complexes of mafic and ultramafic rocks were subducted to eclogite-facies depths and during exhumation under crustal conditions they were intruded by the orthogneiss protoliths (TTG) that were metamorphosed in the granulite facies. Apart from poorly defined UHP metamorphic rocks in Norway, the retrogressed eclogites in the central granulite/retrogressed eclogite facies Lewisian region, NW Scotland have the highest crustal pressures so far reported for Archaean rocks, and demonstrate that lithospheric subduction was transporting crustal rocks to HP depths in the Neoarchaean. (C) 2012 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chromite-silicate chemistry of the Neoarchean Sittampundi Complex, southern India: Implications for subduction-related arc magmatism

The Neoarchean layered anorthositic complex at Sittampundi in southern India is known for its chromitite layers that are mostly associated with anorthosite (An(90-100)). The chromitites contain FeAl-rich chromites concentrated in layers between amphibole-rich layers with a dominant mineralogy of amphibole-spinel-plagiocase+/-sapphirine. The chromite-rich layers contain only amphibole and plagioclase. Mineral compositions illustrated by X-ray composition maps and profiles show subtle chemical differences. The chrome spinels are of refractory grade with Cr2O3 and Al2O3 contents varying between 34-40 wt.% and 23-28 wt.%. The chromite compositions are noticeably different from those in layered igneous intrusions of the Bushveld-Stillwater type. The existence of original highly calcic plagioclase, FeAl-rich chromite, and magmatic amphibole is consistent with derivation from a parental magma of hydrous tholeiitic composition that was most likely generated in a supra-subduction zone arc setting. In terms of mineralogy and field relations, the Sittampundi chromitites are remarkably similar to anorthosite-hosted chromitites in the Neoarchean Fiskensset anorthositic complex, Greenland. We propose that the Sittampundi chromitites formed by partial melting of unusually aluminous harzburgite in a hydrated mantle wedge above a subduction zone. This melting process produced hydrous, aluminous basalt, which fractionated at depth to give rise to a variety of high-alumina basalt compositions from which the anorthositic complex with its cumulate chromite-rich and amphibole-rich layers formed within the magma chamber of a supra-subduction zone arc. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the recurrence of great subduction zone earthquakes

The last decade has witnessed two unusually large tsunamigenic earthquakes. The devastation from the 2004 Sumatra Andaman and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquakes (both of moment magnitude >= 9.0) and their ensuing tsunamis comes as a harsh reminder on the need to assess and mitigate coastal hazards due to earthquakes and tsunamis worldwide. Along any given subduction zone, megathrust tsunamigenic earthquakes occur over intervals considerably longer than their documented histories and thus, 2004-type events may appear totally `out of the blue'. In order to understand and assess the risk from tsunamis, we need to know their long-term frequency and magnitude, going beyond documented history, to recent geological records. The ability to do this depends on our knowledge of the processes that govern subduction zones, their responses to interseismic and coseismic deformation, and on our expertise to identify and relate tsunami deposits to earthquake sources. In this article, we review the current state of understanding on the recurrence of great thrust earthquakes along global subduction zones.

Elastic thickness structure of the Andaman subduction zone: Implications for convergence of the Ninetyeast Ridge

We use the Bouguer coherence (Morlet isostatic response function) technique to compute the spatial variation of effective elastic thickness (T-e) of the Andaman subduction zone. The recovered T-e map resolves regional-scale features that correlate well with known surface structures of the subducting Indian plate and the overriding Burma plate. The major structure on the India plate, the Ninetyeast Ridge (NER), exhibits a weak mechanical strength, which is consistent with the expected signature of an oceanic ridge of hotspot origin. However, a markedly low strength (0< T-e <3 km) in that region, where the NER is close to the Andaman trench (north of 10 N), receives our main attention in this study. The subduction geometry derived from the Bouguer gravity forward modeling suggests that the NER has indented beneath the Andaman arc. We infer that the bending stresses of the viscous plate, which were reinforced within the subducting oceanic plate as a result of the partial subduction of the NER buoyant load, have reduced the lithospheric strength. The correlation, T-e < T-s (seismogenic thickness) reveals that the upper crust is actively deforming beneath the frontal arc Andaman region. The occurrence of normal-fault earthquakes in the frontal arc, low Te zone, is indicative of structural heterogeneities within the subducting plate. The fact that the NER along with its buoyant root is subducting under the Andaman region is inhibiting the subduction processes, as suggested by the changes in trench line, interrupted back-arc volcanism, variation in seismicity mechanism, slow subduction, etc. The low T-e and thinned crustal structure of the Andaman back-arc basin are attributed to a thermomechanically weakened lithosphere. The present study reveals that the ongoing back-arc spreading and strike-slip motion along the West Andaman Fault coupled with the ridge subduction exerts an important control on the frequency and magnitude of seismicity in the Andaman region. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using space geodesy to constrain variations in seismogenic behavior on subduction megathrusts

The concept of seismogenic asperities and aseismic barriers has become a useful paradigm within which to understand the seismogenic behavior of major faults. Since asperities and barriers can be thought of as defining the potential rupture area of large megathrust earthquakes, it is thus important to identify their respective spatial extents, constrain their temporal longevity, and to develop a physical understanding for their behavior. Space geodesy is making critical contributions to the identification of slip asperities and barriers but progress in many geographical regions depends on improving the accuracy and precision of the basic measurements. This thesis begins with technical developments aimed at improving satellite radar interferometric measurements of ground deformation whereby we introduce an empirical correction algorithm for unwanted effects due to interferometric path delays that are due to spatially and temporally variable radar wave propagation speeds in the atmosphere. In chapter 2, I combine geodetic datasets with complementary spatio-temporal resolutions to improve our understanding of the spatial distribution of crustal deformation sources and their associated temporal evolution – here we use observations from Long Valley Caldera (California) as our test bed. In the third chapter I apply the tools developed in the first two chapters to analyze postseismic deformation associated with the 2010 Mw=8.8 Maule (Chile) earthquake. The result delimits patches where afterslip occurs, explores their relationship to coseismic rupture, quantifies frictional properties associated with inferred patches of afterslip, and discusses the relationship of asperities and barriers to long-term topography. The final chapter investigates interseismic deformation of the eastern Makran subduction zone by using satellite radar interferometry only, and demonstrates that with state-of-art techniques it is possible to quantify tectonic signals with small amplitude and long wavelength. Portions of the eastern Makran for which we estimate low fault coupling correspond to areas where bathymetric features on the downgoing plate are presently subducting, whereas the region of the 1945 M=8.1 earthquake appears to be more highly coupled.

Plate tectonic constraints on flat subduction and paleomagnetic constraints on rifting

Plate tectonics shapes our dynamic planet through the creation and destruction of lithosphere. This work focuses on increasing our understanding of the processes at convergent and divergent boundaries through geologic and geophysical observations at modern plate boundaries. Recent work had shown that the subducting slab in central Mexico is most likely the flattest on Earth, yet there was no consensus about what caused it to originate. The first chapter of this thesis sets out to systematically test all previously proposed mechanisms for slab flattening on the Mexican case. What we have discovered is that there is only one model for which we can find no contradictory evidence. The lack of applicability of the standard mechanisms used to explain flat subduction in the Mexican example led us to question their applications globally. The second chapter expands the search for a cause of flat subduction, in both space and time. We focus on the historical record of flat slabs in South America and look for a correlation between the shallowing and steepening of slab segments with relation to the inferred thickness of the subducting oceanic crust. Using plate reconstructions and the assumption that a crustal anomaly formed on a spreading ridge will produce two conjugate features, we recreate the history of subduction along the South American margin and find that there is no correlation between the subduction of a bathymetric highs and shallow subduction. These studies have proven that a subducting crustal anomaly is neither a sufficient or necessary condition of flat slab subduction. The final chapter in this thesis looks at the divergent plate boundary in the Gulf of California. Through geologic reconnaissance mapping and an intensive paleomagnetic sampling campaign, we try to constrain the location and orientation of a widespread volcanic marker unit, the Tuff of San Felipe. Although the resolution of the applied magnetic susceptibility technique proved inadequate to contain the direction of the pyroclastic flow with high precision, we have been able to detect the tectonic rotation of coherent blocks as well as rotation within blocks.

Aseismic deformation in subduction megathrusts : central Andes and north-east Japan

We aim to characterize fault slip behavior during all stages of the seismic cycle in subduction megathrust environments with the eventual goal of understanding temporal and spatial variations of fault zone rheology, and to infer possible causal relationships between inter-, co- and post-seismic slip, as well as implications for earthquake and tsunami hazard. In particular we focus on analyzing aseismic deformation occurring during inter-seismic and post-seismic periods of the seismic cycle. We approach the problem using both Bayesian and optimization techniques. The Bayesian approach allows us to completely characterize the model parameter space by searching a posteriori estimates of the range of allowable models, to easily implement any kind of physically plausible a priori information and to perform the inversion without regularization other than that imposed by the parameterization of the model. However, the Bayesian approach computational expensive and not currently viable for quick response scenarios. Therefore, we also pursue improvements in the optimization inference scheme. We present a novel, robust and yet simple regularization technique that allows us to infer robust and somewhat more detailed models of slip on faults. We apply such methodologies, using simple quasi-static elastic models, to perform studies of inter- seismic deformation in the Central Andes subduction zone, and post-seismic deformation induced by the occurrence of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan. For the Central Andes, we present estimates of apparent coupling probability of the subduction interface and analyze its relationship to past earthquakes in the region. For Japan, we infer high spatial variability in material properties of the megathrust offshore Tohoku. We discuss the potential for a large earthquake just south of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake where our inferences suggest dominantly aseismic behavior.

Seismic structure along transitions from flat to normal subduction: central Mexico, southern Peru, and southwest Japan

The fine-scale seismic structure of the central Mexico, southern Peru, and southwest Japan subduction zones is studied using intraslab earthquakes recorded by temporary and permanent regional seismic arrays. The morphology of the transition from flat to normal subduction is explored in central Mexico and southern Peru, while in southwest Japan the spatial coincidence of a thin ultra-slow velocity layer (USL) atop the flat slab with locations of slow slip events (SSEs) is explored. This USL is also observed in central Mexico and southern Peru, where its lateral extent is used as one constraint on the nature of the flat-to-normal transitions.

In western central Mexico, I find an edge to this USL which is coincident with the western boundary of the projected Orozco Fracture Zone (OFZ) region. Forward modeling of the 2D structure of the subducted Cocos plate using a finite-difference algorithm provides constraints on the velocity and geometry of the slab’s seismic structure in this region and confirms the location of the USL edge. I propose that the Cocos slab is currently fragmenting into a North Cocos plate and a South Cocos plate along the projection of the OFZ, by a process analogous to that which occurred when the Rivera plate separated from the proto-Cocos plate 10 Ma.

In eastern central Mexico, observations of a sharp transition in slab dip near the abrupt end of the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) suggest a possible slab tear located within the subducted South Cocos plate. The eastern lateral extent of the USL is found to be coincident with these features and with the western boundary of a zone of decreased seismicity, indicating a change in structure which I interpret as evidence of a possible tear. Analysis of intraslab seismicity patterns and focal mechanism orientations and faulting types provides further support for a possible tear in the South Cocos slab. This potential tear, together with the tear along the projection of the OFZ to the northwest, indicates a slab rollback mechanism in which separate slab segments move independently, allowing for mantle flow between the segments.

In southern Peru, observations of a gradual increase in slab dip coupled with a lack of any gaps or vertical offsets in the intraslab seismicity suggest a smooth contortion of the slab. Concentrations of focal mechanisms at orientations which are indicative of slab bending are also observed along the change in slab geometry. The lateral extent of the USL atop the horizontal Nazca slab is found to be coincident with the margin of the projected linear continuation of the subducting Nazca Ridge, implying a causal relationship, but not a slab tear. Waveform modeling of the 2D structure in southern Peru provides constraints on the velocity and geometry of the slab’s seismic structure and confirms the absence of any tears in the slab.

In southwest Japan, I estimate the location of a possible USL along the Philippine Sea slab surface and find this region of low velocity to be coincident with locations of SSEs that have occurred in this region. I interpret the source of the possible USL in this region as fluids dehydrated from the subducting plate, forming a high pore-fluid pressure layer, which would be expected to decrease the coupling on the plate interface and promote SSEs.

I. A seismotectonic study of the Middle America Subduction Zone. II. Lithosphere and upper mantle structure of the Canadian Shield and Eastern North America

This thesis consists of two separate parts. Part I (Chapter 1) is concerned with seismotectonics of the Middle America subduction zone. In this chapter, stress distribution and Benioff zone geometry are investigated along almost 2000 km of this subduction zone, from the Rivera Fracture Zone in the north to Guatemala in the south. Particular emphasis is placed on the effects on stress distribution of two aseismic ridges, the Tehuantepec Ridge and the Orozco Fracture Zone, which subduct at seismic gaps. Stress distribution is determined by studying seismicity distribution, and by analysis of 190 focal mechanisms, both new and previously published, which are collected here. In addition, two recent large earthquakes that have occurred near the Tehuantepec Ridge and the Orozco Fracture Zone are discussed in more detail. A consistent stress release pattern is found along most of the Middle America subduction zone: thrust events at shallow depths, followed down-dip by an area of low seismic activity, followed by a zone of normal events at over 175 km from the trench and 60 km depth. The zone of low activity is interpreted as showing decoupling of the plates, and the zone of normal activity as showing the breakup of the descending plate. The portion of subducted lithosphere containing the Orozco Fracture Zone does not differ significantly, in Benioff zone geometry or in stress distribution, from adjoining segments. The Playa Azul earthquake of October 25, 1981, M_s=7.3, occurred in this area. Body and surface wave analysis of this event shows a simple source with a shallow thrust mechanism and gives M_o=1.3x10²⁷ dyne-cm. A stress drop of about 45 bars is calculated; this is slightly higher than that of other thrust events in this subduction zone. In the Tehuantepec Ridge area, only minor differences in stress distribution are seen relative to adjoining segments. For both ridges, the only major difference from adjoining areas is the infrequency or lack of occurrence of large interplate thrust events.

Part II involves upper mantle P wave structure studies, for the Canadian shield and eastern North America. In Chapter 2, the P wave structure of the Canadian shield is determined through forward waveform modeling of the phases P_nl, P, and PP. Effects of lateral heterogeneity are kept to a minimum by using earthquakes just outside the shield as sources, with propagation paths largely within the shield. Previous mantle structure studies have used recordings of P waves in the upper mantle triplication range of 15-30°; however, the lack of large earthquakes in the shield region makes compilation of a complete P wave dataset difficult. By using the phase PP, which undergoes triplications at 30-60°, much more information becomes available. The WKBJ technique is used to calculate synthetic seismograms for PP, and these records are modeled almost as well as the P. A new velocity model, designated S25, is proposed for the Canadian shield. This model contains a thick, high-Q, high-velocity lid to 165 km and a deep low-velocity zone. These features combine to produce seismograms that are markedly different from those generated by other shield structure models. The upper mantle discontinuities in S25 are placed at 405 and 660 km, with a simple linear gradient in velocity between them. Details of the shape of the discontinuities are not well constrained. Below 405 km, this model is not very different from many proposed P wave models for both shield and tectonic regions.

Chapter 3 looks in more detail at recordings of P_nl in eastern North America. First, seismograms from four eastern North American earthquakes are analyzed, and seismic moments for the events are calculated. These earthquakes are important in that they are among the largest to have occurred in eastern North America in the last thirty years, yet in some cases were not large enough to produce many good long-period teleseismic records. A simple layer-over-a-halfspace model is used for the initial modeling, and is found to provide an excellent fit for many features of the observed waveforms. The effects on P_nl of varying lid structure are then investigated. A thick lid with a positive gradient in velocity, such as that proposed for the Canadian shield in Chapter 2, will have a pronounced effect on the waveforms, beginning at distances of 800 or 900 km. P_nl records from the same eastern North American events are recalculated for several lid structure models, to survey what kinds of variations might be seen. For several records it is possible to see likely effects of lid structure in the data. However, the dataset is too sparse to make any general observations about variations in lid structure. This type of modeling is expected to be important in the future, as the analysis is extended to more recent eastern North American events, and as broadband instruments make more high-quality regional recordings available.