O Planejamento estratégico sem plano: ícones urbanos e dinâmica imobiliária em Natal

The model of strategic city planning is applied to Latin American and Brazilian cities since the 1990s. Notwithstanding, in many cities, the production of space has not followed the international model stricto sensu, but a variation of the model, here called, strategic city planning without a plan or peripheral (or yet incomplete) urban entrepreneurialism . This seeks to build city attributes in order to qualify cities for the competitive international and/or regional markets. This includes the production of iconic buildings and structures, here called urban icons. They rapidly become symbols in the contemporary city landscape, facilitating the promotions of the city for tourism and business. This also helps produce charismatic leaderships. However, what it does best is to promote real estate development. This dissertation seeks to understand the role of iconic buildings in the promotion of real estate business in Natal, especially how it helps to fuel prices in the market. The research is done by use of interviews with civil servants and private entrepreneurs related to real estate business

Real options and game theoretical approaches to real estate development projects: multiple equilibria and the implications of different tie-breaking rules

This paper contributes to a fast growing literature which introduces game theory in the analysis of real option investments in a competitive setting. Specifically, in this paper we focus on the issue of multiple equilibria and on the implications that different equilibrium selections may have for the pricing of real options and for subsequent strategic decisions. We present some theoretical results of the necessary conditions to have multiple equilibria and we show under which conditions different tie-breaking rules result in different economic decisions. We then present a numerical exercise using the in formation set obtained on a real estate development in South London. We find that risk aversion reduces option value and this reduction decreases marginally as negative externalities decrease.

Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”.

Ownership Advantages in Cross-border Real Estate Development: Some Evidence from European Markets

Drawing upon European industry and country case studies, this paper investigates the scope and drivers of cross-border real estate development. It is argued that the real estate development process encompasses a diverse range of activities and actors. It is inherently localised, the production process is complex and emphermal, and the outputs are heterogeneous. It analyses a transactions database of European real estate markets to provide insights into the extent of, and variations in, market penetration by non-domestic real estate developers. The data were consistent with the expectation that non-domestic real estate developers from mature markets would have a high level of market penetration in immature markets. Compared to western European markets, the CEE real estate office sales by developers were dominated by US, Israeli and other EU developers. This pattern is consistent with the argument that non-domestic developers have substantial Dunning-type ownership advantages when entering immature real estate markets. However, the data also suggested some unexpected patterns. Relative to their GDP, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands and Israel accounted for large proportions of sales by developers. All are EU countries (except Israel) with small, open, affluent, highly traded economies. Further, the data also indicate that there may be a threshold where locational disadvantages outweigh ownership advantages and deter cross-border real estate development.

An analysis of the determinants of cross-border real estate development flows

This paper investigates the scale and drivers of cross-border real estate development in western and central and eastern Europe (CEE). Drawing upon existing literature on the integration of international real estate markets, we make some inferences on expected patterns of cross-border real estate development from this literature review. The paper draws upon a transactions database in order to assess the penetration of national markets by international real estate developers. The determinants of cross-border transaction flows are modeled as a function the range of economic and real estate variables. Whilst western European markets tend to be dominated by local developers, much higher levels of market penetration by international real estate developers are found in the less mature markets of central and eastern Europe. Empirical modelling based on gravity model specifications reveal the importance of size of the economies, distance between countries, extent of globalization and EU membership as significant determinants of cross-border real estate development flow.

Essays on city size distribution and real estate bubbles

This is a dissertation about urban systems; within this broad subject I tackle three issues, one that focuses on an observed inter-city relationship and two that focus on an intra-city phenomenon. In Chapter II I adapt a model of random emergence of economic opportunities from the firm growth literature to the urban dynamics situation and present several predictions for urban system dynamics. One of these predictions is that the older the city the larger and more diversified it is going to be on average, which I proceed to verify empirically using two distinct datasets. In Chapter III I analyze the Residential Real Estate Bubble that took place in Miami-Dade County from 1999 to 2006. I adopt a Spatial-Economic model developed for the Paris Bubble episode of 1984–1993 and formulate an innovative test of the results in terms of speculative intensity on the basis of proxies of investor activity available in my dataset. My results support the idea that the best or more expensive areas are also where the greatest speculative activity takes place and where the rapid increase in prices begins. The most significant departure from previous studies that emerges in my results is the absence of a wider gap between high priced areas and low priced areas in the peak year. I develop a measure of dispersion in value among areas and contrast the Miami-Dade and Paris episodes. In Chapter IV I analyze the impact on tax equity of a Florida tax-limiting legislation known as Save Our Homes. I first compare homesteaded and non-homesteaded properties, and second, look within the subset of homesteaded properties. I find that non-homesteaded properties increase their share of taxes paid relative to homesteaded properties during an up market, but that this is reversed during a down market. For the subset of homesteaded properties I find that the impact on tax equity of SOH will depend on differential growth rates among higher and lower valued homes, but during times of rapid home price appreciation, in a scenario of no differential growth rates in property values, SOH increases progressivity relative to the prior system.

Real Estate Development In India And The Behavior of Investors to Invest In The Real Estate Market: An Empirical Investigation

This study examines the behavioral factors that influence the Indian Investors to invest in the Real Estate Market. Among the various factors that affect the tendency of investors to invest in the real market, certain factors are greatly influenced the investors at greatest extend while others at least level. From this study it is revealed that motivation from the real estate developers and brokers (mean value- 3.46) is most influencing factor and happening of uncertain events (mean value- 1.75) is the least factor that influences the investors’ investment behavior. In this study, the behavioral factor like over confidence and the hypotheses regarding education, religion were analyzed and found that religious factor influences the Indian investors to invest in the real estate

The persistence of distance: a gravity model of European cross-border real estate development flows

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the scale and drivers of cross-border real estate development in Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe. Design/methodology/approach – Placing cross-border real estate development within the framework of foreign direct investment (FDI), conceptual complexities in characterizing the notional real estate developer are emphasized. Drawing upon a transaction database, this paper proxies cross-border real estate development flows with asset sales by developers. Findings – Much higher levels of market penetration by international real estate developers are found in the less mature markets of Central and Eastern Europe. Analysis suggests a complex range of determinants with physical distance remaining a consistent barrier to cross-border development flows. Originality/value – This analysis adds significant value in terms of understanding cross-border real estate development flows. In this study, a detailed examination of the issues based on a rigorous empirical analysis through gravity modelling is offered. The gravity framework is one of the most confirmed empirical regularities in international economics and commonly applied to trade, FDI, migration, foreign portfolio investment inter alia. This paper assesses the extent to which it provides useful insights into the pattern of cross-border real estate development flows.

Innovative real estate development finance – evidence from Europe

The authors would like to thank the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) for their financial support of the project and the numerous respondents who gave so freely of their time.

Mass transit development for small urban areas, a case study, Tompkins County, New York : second year final report /

Mode of access: Internet.

Symposium Community Development and Passenger Transportation /

Mode of access: Internet.

Socio-ethnic segregation and sustainable urban city planning in Lisbon

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ecologia Humana e Problemas Sociais Contemporâneos