Optimal and Robust Designs of Step-stress Accelerated Life Testing Experiments for Proportional Hazards Models

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is widely used to obtain reliability information about a product within a limited time frame. The Cox s proportional hazards (PH) model is often utilized for reliability prediction. My master thesis research focuses on designing accelerated life testing experiments for reliability estimation. We consider multiple step-stress ALT plans with censoring. The optimal stress levels and times of changing the stress levels are investigated. We discuss the optimal designs under three optimality criteria. They are D-, A- and Q-optimal designs. We note that the classical designs are optimal only if the model assumed is correct. Due to the nature of prediction made from ALT experimental data, attained under the stress levels higher than the normal condition, extrapolation is encountered. In such case, the assumed model cannot be tested. Therefore, for possible imprecision in the assumed PH model, the method of construction for robust designs is also explored.

Statistical Methods for Accelerated Life Testing with Particular Reference to Resin Impregnated Paper Bushings

Electrical failure of insulation is known to be an extremal random process wherein nominally identical pro-rated specimens of equipment insulation, at constant stress fail at inordinately different times even under laboratory test conditions. In order to be able to estimate the life of power equipment, it is necessary to run long duration ageing experiments under accelerated stresses, to acquire and analyze insulation specific failure data. In the present work, Resin Impregnated Paper (RIP) a relatively new insulation system of choice used in transformer bushings, is taken as an example. The failure data has been processed using proven statistical methods, both graphical and analytical. The physical model governing insulation failure at constant accelerated stress has been assumed to be based on temperature dependent inverse power law model.

Bayesian Accelerated Life Testing under Competing Weibull Causes of Failure

Consider a J-component series system which is put on Accelerated Life Test (ALT) involving K stress variables. First, a general formulation of ALT is provided for log-location-scale family of distributions. A general stress translation function of location parameter of the component log-lifetime distribution is proposed which can accommodate standard ones like Arrhenius, power-rule, log-linear model, etc., as special cases. Later, the component lives are assumed to be independent Weibull random variables with a common shape parameter. A full Bayesian methodology is then developed by letting only the scale parameters of the Weibull component lives depend on the stress variables through the general stress translation function. Priors on all the parameters, namely the stress coefficients and the Weibull shape parameter, are assumed to be log-concave and independent of each other. This assumption is to facilitate Gibbs sampling from the joint posterior. The samples thus generated from the joint posterior is then used to obtain the Bayesian point and interval estimates of the system reliability at usage condition.

Bayesian Accelerated Life Testing under Competing Weibull Causes of Failure

Consider a J-component series system which is put on Accelerated Life Test (ALT) involving K stress variables. First, a general formulation of ALT is provided for log-location-scale family of distributions. A general stress translation function of location parameter of the component log-lifetime distribution is proposed which can accommodate standard ones like Arrhenius, power-rule, log-linear model, etc., as special cases. Later, the component lives are assumed to be independent Weibull random variables with a common shape parameter. A full Bayesian methodology is then developed by letting only the scale parameters of the Weibull component lives depend on the stress variables through the general stress translation function. Priors on all the parameters, namely the stress coefficients and the Weibull shape parameter, are assumed to be log-concave and independent of each other. This assumption is to facilitate Gibbs sampling from the joint posterior. The samples thus generated from the joint posterior is then used to obtain the Bayesian point and interval estimates of the system reliability at usage condition.

Reliability analysis of encapsulation methods for lead -based paint through an accelerated life testing

The adverse health effects of long-term exposure to lead are well established, with major uptake into the human body occurring mainly through oral ingestion by young children. Lead-based paint was frequently used in homes built before 1978, particularly in inner-city areas. Minority populations experience the effects of lead poisoning disproportionately. ^ Lead-based paint abatement is costly. In the United States, residents of about 400,000 homes, occupied by 900,000 young children, lack the means to correct lead-based paint hazards. The magnitude of this problem demands research on affordable methods of hazard control. One method is encapsulation, defined as any covering or coating that acts as a permanent barrier between the lead-based paint surface and the environment. ^ Two encapsulants were tested for reliability and effective life span through an accelerated lifetime experiment that applied stresses exceeding those encountered under normal use conditions. The resulting time-to-failure data were used to extrapolate the failure time under conditions of normal use. Statistical analysis and models of the test data allow forecasting of long-term reliability relative to the 20-year encapsulation requirement. Typical housing material specimens simulating walls and doors coated with lead-based paint were overstressed before encapsulation. A second, un-aged set was also tested. Specimens were monitored after the stress test with a surface chemical testing pad to identify the presence of lead breaking through the encapsulant. ^ Graphical analysis proposed by Shapiro and Meeker and the general log-linear model developed by Cox were used to obtain results. Findings for the 80% reliability time to failure varied, with close to 21 years of life under normal use conditions for encapsulant A. The application of product A on the aged gypsum and aged wood substrates yielded slightly lower times. Encapsulant B had an 80% reliable life of 19.78 years. ^ This study reveals that encapsulation technologies can offer safe and effective control of lead-based paint hazards and may be less expensive than other options. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the CDC are committed to eliminating childhood lead poisoning by 2010. This ambitious target is feasible, provided there is an efficient application of innovative technology, a goal to which this study aims to contribute. ^

Maximum likelihood analysis of multi-stress accelerated life test data of series systems with competing log-normal causes of failure

This article presents frequentist inference of accelerated life test data of series systems with independent log-normal component lifetimes. The means of the component log-lifetimes are assumed to depend on the stress variables through a linear stress translation function that can accommodate the standard stress translation functions in the literature. An expectation-maximization algorithm is developed to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters. The maximum likelihood estimates are then further refined by bootstrap, which is also used to infer about the component and system reliability metrics at usage stresses. The developed methodology is illustrated by analyzing a real as well as a simulated dataset. A simulation study is also carried out to judge the effectiveness of the bootstrap. It is found that in this model, application of bootstrap results in significant improvement over the simple maximum likelihood estimates.

Biomechanical evaluation of internal and external hexagon platform switched implant-abutment connections: An in vitro laboratory and three-dimensional finite element analysis

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effect of microthread presence and restoration design (screw versus cemented) in dental implant reliability and failure modes

Objectives: This study evaluated the reliability and failure modes of implants with a microthreaded or smooth design at the crestal region, restored with screwed or cemented crowns. The postulated null hypothesis was that the presence of microthreads in the implant cervical region would not result in different reliability and strength to failure than smooth design, regardless of fixation method, when subjected to step-stress accelerated life-testing (SSALT) in water. Materials and methods: Eighty four dental implants (3.3 × 10 mm) were divided into four groups (n = 21) according to implant macrogeometric design at the crestal region and crown fixation method: Microthreads Screwed (MS); Smooth Screwed (SS); Microthreads Cemented (MC), and Smooth Cemented (SC). The abutments were torqued to the implants and standardized maxillary central incisor metallic crowns were cemented (MC, SC) or screwed (MS, SS) and subjected to SSALT in water. The probability of failure versus cycles (90% two-sided confidence intervals) was calculated and plotted using a power law relationship for damage accumulation. Reliability for a mission of 50,000 cycles at 150 N (90% 2-sided confidence intervals) was calculated. Differences between final failure loads during fatigue for each group were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis along with Benferroni's post hoc tests. Polarized-light and scanning electron microscopes were used for failure analyses. Results: The Beta (β) value (confidence interval range) derived from use level probability Weibull calculation of 1.30 (0.76-2.22), 1.17 (0.70-1.96), 1.12 (0.71-1.76), and 0.52 (0.30-0.89) for groups MC, SC, MS, and SS respectively, indicated that fatigue was an accelerating factor for all groups, except for SS. The calculated reliability was higher for SC (99%) compared to MC (87%). No difference was observed between screwed restorations (MS - 29%, SS - 43%). Failure involved abutment screw fracture for all groups. The cemented groups (MC, SC) presented more abutment and implant fractures. Significantly higher load to fracture values were observed for SC and MC relative to MS and SS (P < 0.001). Conclusion: Since reliability and strength to failure was higher for SC than for MC, our postulated null hypothesis was rejected. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Reliability and failure modes of internal conical dental implant connections

Objective: Biological and mechanical implant-abutment connection complications and failures are still present in clinical practice, frequently compromising oral function. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability and failure modes of anterior single-unit restorations in internal conical interface (ICI) implants using step-stress accelerated life testing (SSALT). Materials and methods: Forty-two ICI implants were distributed in two groups (n = 21 each): group AT-OsseoSpeed™ TX (Astra Tech, Waltham, MA, USA); group SV-Duocon System Line, Morse Taper (Signo Vinces Ltda., Campo Largo, PR, Brazil). The corresponding abutments were screwed to the implants and standardized maxillary central incisor metal crowns were cemented and subjected to SSALT in water. Use-level probability Weibull curves and reliability for a mission of 50,000 cycles at 200 N were calculated. Differences between groups were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis along with Bonferroni's post-hoc tests. Polarized-light and scanning electron microscopes were used for failure analyses. Results: The Beta (β) value derived from use level probability Weibull calculation was 1.62 (1.01-2.58) for group AT and 2.56 (1.76-3.74) for group SV, indicating that fatigue was an accelerating factor for failure of both groups. The reliability for group AT was 0.95 and for group SV was 0.88. Kruskal-Wallis along with Bonferroni's post-hoc tests showed no significant difference between the groups tested (P > 0.27). In all specimens of both groups, the chief failure mode was abutment fracture at the conical joint region and screw fracture at neck's region. Conclusions: Reliability was not different between investigated ICI connections supporting maxillary incisor crowns. Failure modes were similar. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Mechanical Evaluation of Four Narrow-Diameter Implant Systems

Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the survival probability of four narrow-diameter implant systems when subjected to fatigue loading. Materials and Methods: Seventy-two narrow-diameter implants to be restored with single-unit crowns were divided into four groups (n = 18): Astra Tech (3.5-mm diameter), with a standard connection (ASC); BioHorizon (3.4-mm diameter), with a standard connection (BSC); Intra-Lock (3.4-mm diameter), with a standard multilobular connection (ISC); and Intra-Lock (3.4-diameter), with a modified square connection (IMC). The corresponding abutments were screwed onto the implants, and standardized metal crowns (maxillary central incisors) were cemented and subjected to step-stress accelerated life testing in water. Use-level probability Weibull curves and reliability for 100,000 cycles at 150 and 200 N (90% two-sided confidence intervals) were calculated. Polarized light and scanning electron microscopes were used to access the failure modes. Results: The calculated survival probability for 100,000 cycles at 150 N was approximately 93% in group ASC, 98% in group BSC, 94% in group ISC, and 99% in group IMC. At 200 N, the survival rate was estimated to be approximately < 0.1% for ASC, 77% for BSC, 34% for ISC, and 93% for IMC. Abutment screw fracture was the main failure mode for all groups. Conclusions: Although the probability of survival was not significantly different among systems at a load of 150 N, a significant decrease was observed at 200 N for all groups except IMC.

Effect of Abutment Screw Surface Treatment on Reliability of Implant-Supported Crowns

Purpose: To evaluate and compare the reliability of implant-supported single crowns cemented onto abutments retained with coated (C) or noncoated (NC) screws and onto platform-switched abutments with coated screws. Materials and Methods: Fifty-four implants (DT Implant 4-mm Standard Platform, Intra-Lock International) were divided into three groups (n = 18 each) as follows: matching-platform abutments secured with noncoated abutment screws (MNC); matching-platform abutments tightened with coated abutment screws (MC); and switched-platform abutments secured with coated abutment screws (SC). Screws were characterized by scanning electron microscopy and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The specimens were subjected to step-stress accelerated life testing. Use-level probability Weibull curves and reliability for 100,000 cycles at 200 N and 300 N (90% two-sided confidence intervals) were calculated. Polarized light and scanning electron microscopes were used for fractographic analysis. Results: Scanning electron microscopy revealed differences in surface texture; noncoated screws presented the typical machining grooves texture, whereas coated screws presented a plastically deformed surface layer. XPS revealed the same base components for both screws, with the exception of higher degrees of silicon in the SiO2 form for the coated samples. For 100,000 cycles at 300 N, reliability values were 0.06 (0.01 to 0.16), 0.25 (0.09 to 0.45), and 0.25 (0.08 to 0.45), for MNC, MC, and SC, respectively. The most common failure mechanism for MNC was fracture of the abutment screw, followed by bending, or its fracture, along with fracture of the abutment or implant. Coated abutment screws most commonly fractured along with the abutment, irrespective of abutment type. Conclusion: Reliability was higher for both groups with the coated screw than with the uncoated screw. Failure modes differed between coated and uncoated groups.

Fatigue Reliability of 3 Single-Unit Implant-Abutment Designs

Objectives: Because the mechanical behavior of the implant-abutment system is critical for the longevity of implant-supported reconstructions, this study evaluated the fatigue reliability of different implant-abutment systems used as single-unit crowns and their failure modes. Methods and Materials: Sixty-three Ti-6Al-4V implants were divided in 3 groups: Replace Select (RS); IC-IMP Osseotite; and Unitite were restored with their respective abutments. Anatomically correct central incisor metal crowns were cemented and subjected to separate single load to failure tests and step-stress accelerated life testing (n = 18). A master Weibull curve and reliability for a mission of 50,000 cycles at 200 N were calculated. Polarized-light and scanning electron microscopes were used for failure analyses. Results: The load at failure mean values during step-stress accelerated life testing were 348.14 N for RS, 324.07 N for Osseotite, and 321.29 N for the Unitite systems. No differences in reliability levels were detected between systems, and only the RS system mechanical failures were shown to be accelerated by damage accumulation. Failure modes differed between systems. Conclusions: The 3 evaluated systems did not present significantly different reliability; however, failure modes were different. (Implant Dent 2012;21:67-71)

Determinação do tempo de vida de restaurações totalmente cerâmicas (y-tzp/porcelana) com incidência da carga em diferentes regiões de contato

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Lifetime comparison of Y-TZP/porcelain crowns under different loading conditions

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Planning accelerated life tests under Exponentiated-Weibull-Arrhenius model

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present designs for an accelerated life test (ALT). Design/methodology/approach - Bayesian methods and simulation Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods were used. Findings - In the paper a Bayesian method based on MCMC for ALT under EW distribution (for life time) and Arrhenius models (relating the stress variable and parameters) was proposed. The paper can conclude that it is a reasonable alternative to the classical statistical methods since the implementation of the proposed method is simple, not requiring advanced computational understanding and inferences on the parameters can be made easily. By the predictive density of a future observation, a procedure was developed to plan ALT and also to verify if the conformance fraction of the manufactured process reaches some desired level of quality. This procedure is useful for statistical process control in many industrial applications. Research limitations/implications - The results may be applied in a semiconductor manufacturer. Originality/value - The Exponentiated-Weibull-Arrhenius model has never before been used to plan an ALT. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.