Efficient democracy /

Partly republished from various periodicals.

Rank test of location optimal for hyperbolic secant distribution

There are at least two reasons for a symmetric, unimodal, diffuse tailed hyperbolic secant distribution to be interesting in real-life applications. It displays one of the common types of non normality in natural data and is closely related to the logistic and Cauchy distributions that often arise in practice. To test the difference in location between two hyperbolic secant distributions, we develop a simple linear rank test with trigonometric scores. We investigate the small-sample and asymptotic properties of the test statistic and provide tables of the exact null distribution for small sample sizes. We compare the test to the Wilcoxon two-sample test and show that, although the asymptotic powers of the tests are comparable, the present test has certain practical advantages over the Wilcoxon test.

RESILIÊNCIA DE ATLETAS DE BASQUETEBOL

Resiliência remete à habilidade do ser humano de demonstrar êxito diante das adversidades da vida, superá-las e, inclusive, ser fortalecido ou transformado por elas. O construto tem sido estudado há cerca de quarenta anos na Psiquiatria com foco em crianças, mas sua investigação é bem mais recente com a população adulta. No mundo da competição esportiva, os estudos são escassos. O contexto esportivo apresenta altos desafios e adversidades constantes que os atletas precisam vencer para cumprir as metas profissionais; por isso, convivem, muito frequentemente, com seus limites físicos e psicológicos. Assim, a resiliência pode ser um importante aspecto em suas vidas profissionais. Este estudo objetiva descrever os níveis de resiliência dos atletas no Basquetebol e identificar possíveis relações entre resiliência e alguns indicadores de eficiência estatística. Participaram da pesquisa, voluntariamente, 71 atletas profissionais adultos e atuantes da modalidade. As variáveis foram avaliadas por meio da Escala de Avaliação de Resiliência EAR, de um questionário de dados sociodemográficos e de índices de eficiência registrados pela Federação Paulista de Basquetebol. Os resultados de análises estatísticas descritivas e de correlações bivariadas de Pearson permitiram observar que os atletas demonstraram um alto nível de resiliência com destaque para a persistência diante das dificuldades e a aceitação positiva de mudanças. Os fatores que compõem a resiliência não apresentaram correlação significativa no tocante ao coeficiente de eficiência dos atletas. Ao comparar as médias por meio da análise de variância percebeu-se que os atletas que possuíam entre cinco e dez anos de profissão apresentaram melhores médias de coeficiente de eficiência. Os resultados revelam, ainda, que os atletas que atuam menos de 8 minutos na partida, em média, produzem menores índices de eficiência estatística e que os atletas que pertencem às equipes de resultados medianos na tabela de classificação tendem a apresentar maior percepção de competência pessoal que os atletas que atuam nas equipes mais mal colocadas. Os fatores de resiliência não se diferenciam em função da experiência dos atletas, nem do tempo em média que permanecem em quadra. Esses resultados revelam a necessidade de questionar se os indicadores de eficiência estatística seriam os critérios mais adequados para verificar o papel da resiliência na vida de atletas de Basquetebol e apontam para a necessidade de aumentar o número de estudos sobre a influência de características individuais no mundo dos esportes profissionais.

Berry-Esseen bounds for nonlinear statistics, and asymptotic relative efficiency between correlation statistics

Four papers, written in collaboration with the author’s graduate school advisor, are presented. In the first paper, uniform and non-uniform Berry-Esseen (BE) bounds on the convergence to normality of a general class of nonlinear statistics are provided; novel applications to specific statistics, including the non-central Student’s, Pearson’s, and the non-central Hotelling’s, are also stated. In the second paper, a BE bound on the rate of convergence of the F-statistic used in testing hypotheses from a general linear model is given. The third paper considers the asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) between the Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall correlation statistics; conditions sufficient to ensure that the Spearman and Kendall statistics are equally (asymptotically) efficient are provided, and several models are considered which illustrate the use of such conditions. Lastly, the fourth paper proves that, in the bivariate normal model, the ARE between any of these correlation statistics possesses certain monotonicity properties; quadratic lower and upper bounds on the ARE are stated as direct applications of such monotonicity patterns.

Statistics essential for police efficiency.

Bibliography: p. 198-202.

National longitudinal study of the high school class of 1972 : sample design efficiency study: effects of stratification, clustering, and unequal weighting on the variances of NLS statistics /

Project officer: William B. Fetters.

Content-based VLE designs improve learning efficiency in constructivist statistics education

Background: We introduced a series of computer-supported workshops in our undergraduate statistics courses, in the hope that it would help students to gain a deeper understanding of statistical concepts. This raised questions about the appropriate design of the Virtual Learning Environment (VLE) in which such an approach had to be implemented. Therefore, we investigated two competing software design models for VLEs. In the first system, all learning features were a function of the classical VLE. The second system was designed from the perspective that learning features should be a function of the course's core content (statistical analyses), which required us to develop a specific-purpose Statistical Learning Environment (SLE) based on Reproducible Computing and newly developed Peer Review (PR) technology. Objectives: The main research question is whether the second VLE design improved learning efficiency as compared to the standard type of VLE design that is commonly used in education. As a secondary objective we provide empirical evidence about the usefulness of PR as a constructivist learning activity which supports non-rote learning. Finally, this paper illustrates that it is possible to introduce a constructivist learning approach in large student populations, based on adequately designed educational technology, without subsuming educational content to technological convenience. Methods: Both VLE systems were tested within a two-year quasi-experiment based on a Reliable Nonequivalent Group Design. This approach allowed us to draw valid conclusions about the treatment effect of the changed VLE design, even though the systems were implemented in successive years. The methodological aspects about the experiment's internal validity are explained extensively. Results: The effect of the design change is shown to have substantially increased the efficiency of constructivist, computer-assisted learning activities for all cohorts of the student population under investigation. The findings demonstrate that a content-based design outperforms the traditional VLE-based design. © 2011 Wessa et al.

Evaluating the efficiency of fractional integration parameter estimators

This article deals with the efficiency of fractional integration parameter estimators. This study was based on Monte Carlo experiments involving simulated stochastic processes with integration orders in the range]-1,1[. The evaluated estimation methods were classified into two groups: heuristics and semiparametric/maximum likelihood (ML). The study revealed that the comparative efficiency of the estimators, measured by the lesser mean squared error, depends on the stationary/non-stationary and persistency/anti-persistency conditions of the series. The ML estimator was shown to be superior for stationary persistent processes; the wavelet spectrum-based estimators were better for non-stationary mean reversible and invertible anti-persistent processes; the weighted periodogram-based estimator was shown to be superior for non-invertible anti-persistent processes.

Assesing advertising efficiency: does the internet play a role?

This research focuses on a major concern for marketers addressing the claims of inefficiency of the spending on advertising. We examine whether the Internet can help increase overall advertising efficiency. Using a sample from the Spanish automobile industry, we combine a nonparametric method - Data Envelopment Analysis - with recent important insights from statistics and econometrics studies, and we find that online advertising improves the efficiency levels and this effect is more pronounced in the long-term temporal framework.

Efficiency diagnostic and advantages of procalcitonin and C-reactive protein in the early diagnosis of sepsis.

The goal of our study is to assess the diagnostic profi tability of procalcitonin (PCT) in septic shock and another biomarker as C-reactive protein (CRP). Results: Fifty-four septic patients were assessed, 66% were males; mean age, 63 years. Eighty-eight percent was diagnosed as septic shock and 11% severe sepsis. Seventy-six percent were medical patients. Positive blood cultures in 42.5%. Sepsis origin: respiratory 46%, neurological 5%, digestive 37% and urinary 3%. Average SOFA score was 10.4. Conclusions: PCT and CRP have the same efficiency in early sepsis diagnosis. The PCT and CRP effi ciency diagnostic together is signifi cant but small. We suggest using both with the doubt of sepsis.

The Anchoring Bias of Investors and the 52-Week High Momentum Strategy in the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange: Psychological Approach to Market Efficiency

The behavioural finance literature expects systematic and significant deviations from efficiency to persist in securities markets due to behavioural and cognitive biases of investors. These behavioural models attempt to explain the coexistence of intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversals in stock returns based on the systematic violations of rational behaviour of investors. The study investigates the anchoring bias of investors and the profitability of the 52-week momentum strategy (GH henceforward). The relatively highly volatile OMX Helsinki stock exchange is a suitable market for examining the momentum effect, since international investors tend to realise their positions first from the furthest security markets by the time of market turbulence. Empirical data is collected from Thomson Reuters Datastream and the OMX Nordic website. The objective of the study is to provide a throughout research by formulating a self-financing GH momentum portfolio. First, the seasonality of the strategy is examined by taking the January effect into account and researching abnormal returns in long-term. The results indicate that the GH strategy is subject to significantly negative revenues in January, but the strategy is not prone to reversals in long-term. Then the predictive proxies of momentum returns are investigated in terms of acquisition prices and 52-week high statistics as anchors. The results show that the acquisition prices do not have explanatory power over the GH strategy’s abnormal returns. Finally, the efficacy of the GH strategy is examined after taking transaction costs into account, finding that the robust abnormal returns remain statistically significant despite the transaction costs. As a conclusion, the relative distance between a stock’s current price and its 52-week high statistic explains the profits of momentum investing to a high degree. The results indicate that intermediateterm momentum and long-term reversals are separate phenomena. This presents a challenge to current behavioural theories, which model these aspects of stock returns as subsequent components of how securities markets respond to relevant information.

Improving Cost-Efficiency and Reducing Environmental Impacts of Intermodal Transportation with Dry Port Concept – Major Rail Transport Corridor in Baltic Sea Region

Transportation plays a major role in the gross domestic product of various nations. There are, however, many obstacles hindering the transportation sector. Cost-efficiency along with proper delivery times, high frequency and reliability are not a straightforward task. Furthermore, environmental friendliness has increased the importance of the whole transportation sector. This development will change roles inside the transportation sector. Even now, but especially in the future, decisions regarding the transportation sector will be partly based on emission levels and other externalities originating from transportation in addition to pure transportation costs. There are different factors, which could have an impact on the transportation sector. IMO’s sulphur regulation is estimated to increase the costs of short sea shipping in the Baltic Sea. Price development of energy could change the roles of different transport modes. Higher awareness of the environmental impacts originating from transportation could also have an impact on the price level of more polluting transport modes. According to earlier research, increased inland transportation, modal shift and slowsteaming can be possible results of these changes in the transportation sector. Possible changes in the transportation sector and ways to settle potential obstacles are studied in this dissertation. Furthermore, means to improve cost-efficiency and to decrease environmental impacts originating from transportation are researched. Hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor are studied in this dissertation. Benefits and disadvantages are studied with different methodologies. These include gravitational models, which were optimized with linear integer programming, discrete-event and system dynamics simulation, an interview study and a case study. Geographical focus is on the Baltic Sea Region, but the results can be adapted to other geographical locations with discretion. Results indicate that the dry port concept has benefits, but optimization regarding the location and the amount of dry ports plays an important role. In addition, the utilization of dry ports for freight transportation should be carefully operated, since only a certain amount of total freight volume can be cost-efficiently transported through dry ports. If dry ports are created and located without proper planning, they could actually increase transportation costs and delivery times of the whole transportation system. With an optimized dry port network, transportation costs can be lowered in Finland with three to five dry ports. Environmental impacts can be lowered with up to nine dry ports. If more dry ports are added to the system, the benefits become very minor, i.e. payback time of investments becomes extremely long. Furthermore, dry port network could support major transport corridors such as Rail Baltica. Based on an analysis of statistics and interview study, there could be enough freight volume available for Rail Baltica, especially, if North-West Russia is part of the Northern end of the corridor. Transit traffic to and from Russia (especially through the Baltic States) plays a large role. It could be possible to increase transit traffic through Finland by connecting the potential Finnish dry port network and the studied transport corridor. Additionally, sulphur emission regulation is assumed to increase the attractiveness of Rail Baltica in the year 2015. Part of the transit traffic could be rerouted along Rail Baltica instead of the Baltic Sea, since the price level of sea transport could increase due to the sulphur regulation. Both, the hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor could benefit each other. The dry port network could gain more market share from Russia, but also from Central Europe, which is the other end of Rail Baltica. In addition, further Eastern countries could also be connected to achieve higher potential freight volume by rail.

Search engine advertising in web retailing : an efficiency analysis

This study examines the efficiency of search engine advertising strategies employed by firms. The research setting is the online retailing industry, which is characterized by extensive use of Web technologies and high competition for market share and profitability. For Internet retailers, search engines are increasingly serving as an information gateway for many decision-making tasks. In particular, Search engine advertising (SEA) has opened a new marketing channel for retailers to attract new customers and improve their performance. In addition to natural (organic) search marketing strategies, search engine advertisers compete for top advertisement slots provided by search brokers such as Google and Yahoo! through keyword auctions. The rationale being that greater visibility on a search engine during a keyword search will capture customers' interest in a business and its product or service offerings. Search engines account for most online activities today. Compared with the slow growth of traditional marketing channels, online search volumes continue to grow at a steady rate. According to the Search Engine Marketing Professional Organization, spending on search engine marketing by North American firms in 2008 was estimated at $13.5 billion. Despite the significant role SEA plays in Web retailing, scholarly research on the topic is limited. Prior studies in SEA have focused on search engine auction mechanism design. In contrast, research on the business value of SEA has been limited by the lack of empirical data on search advertising practices. Recent advances in search and retail technologies have created datarich environments that enable new research opportunities at the interface of marketing and information technology. This research uses extensive data from Web retailing and Google-based search advertising and evaluates Web retailers' use of resources, search advertising techniques, and other relevant factors that contribute to business performance across different metrics. The methods used include Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), data mining, and multivariate statistics. This research contributes to empirical research by analyzing several Web retail firms in different industry sectors and product categories. One of the key findings is that the dynamics of sponsored search advertising vary between multi-channel and Web-only retailers. While the key performance metrics for multi-channel retailers include measures such as online sales, conversion rate (CR), c1ick-through-rate (CTR), and impressions, the key performance metrics for Web-only retailers focus on organic and sponsored ad ranks. These results provide a useful contribution to our organizational level understanding of search engine advertising strategies, both for multi-channel and Web-only retailers. These results also contribute to current knowledge in technology-driven marketing strategies and provide managers with a better understanding of sponsored search advertising and its impact on various performance metrics in Web retailing.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

A Study on the Efficiency of Synbiotics for Prevention and Control of Diarrhoea in 21 Dogs Submitted to Radiotherapy

A synbiotic is a formulation containing both probiotics and prebiotics. This study aims to evaluate the effect of supplementation with a synbiotic containing Enterococcus faecium strain E1707 (NCIMB 10415) in preventing or controlling diarrhoea and other gastrointestinal signs in boarded canine radiotherapy patients. A double-blind, randomized, placebocontrolled clinical trial was carried out in 21 adult dogs undergoing radiotherapy and boarded for a duration period of 2 to 3 weeks to treat their cancers. Dogs were randomly divided between two groups: A and B, the synbiotic and placebo group, respectively. The content of the sachets was added to the food once daily. Faecal score was assessed daily, and dogs were also monitored for the development of diarrhoea and other gastrointestinal signs such as weight loss, reduced appetite and vomiting. The results from descriptive statistics seem to favour group B, however these findings were not validated with inferential statistics due to insufficient statistical sample power. Because of this, it is not possible to make conclusions about the benefits of synbiotic as supportive treatment for dogs undergoing radiotherapy. All results should be considered to be preliminary, until they are elucidated by further animal inclusion.