Scan statistics analysis of forest fire clusters

Spatio-temporal clusters in 1997?2003 fire sequences of Tuscany region (central Italy) have been identified and analysed by using the scan statistic, a method which was devised to evidence clusters in epidemiology. Results showed that the method is reliable to find clusters of events and to evaluate their significance via Monte Carlo replication. The evaluation of the presence of spatial and temporal patterns in fire occurrence and their significance could have a great impact in forthcoming studies on fire occurrences prediction.

PXRF and multivariate statistics analysis of pre-colonial pottery from northeast of Brazil

Portable system of energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence was used to determine the elemental composition of 68 pottery fragments from Sambaqui do Bacanga, an archeological site in Sao Luis, Maranhao, Brazil. This site was occupied from 6600 BP until 900 BP. By determining the element chemical composition of those fragments, it was possible to verify the existence of engobe in 43 pottery fragments. Obtained from two-dimensional graphs and hierarchical cluster analysis performed in fragments of stratigraphies from surface and 113-cm level, and 10 to 20, 132 and 144-cm level, it was possible to group these fragments in five distinct groups, according to their stratigraphies. The results of data grouping (two-dimensional graphics) are in agreement with hierarchical cluster analysis by Ward method. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analysis of space-time environmental data in complex regions

This thesis develops a comprehensive and a flexible statistical framework for the analysis and detection of space, time and space-time clusters of environmental point data. The developed clustering methods were applied in both simulated datasets and real-world environmental phenomena; however, only the cases of forest fires in Canton of Ticino (Switzerland) and in Portugal are expounded in this document. Normally, environmental phenomena can be modelled as stochastic point processes where each event, e.g. the forest fire ignition point, is characterised by its spatial location and occurrence in time. Additionally, information such as burned area, ignition causes, landuse, topographic, climatic and meteorological features, etc., can also be used to characterise the studied phenomenon. Thereby, the space-time pattern characterisa- tion represents a powerful tool to understand the distribution and behaviour of the events and their correlation with underlying processes, for instance, socio-economic, environmental and meteorological factors. Consequently, we propose a methodology based on the adaptation and application of statistical and fractal point process measures for both global (e.g. the Morisita Index, the Box-counting fractal method, the multifractal formalism and the Ripley's K-function) and local (e.g. Scan Statistics) analysis. Many measures describing the space-time distribution of environmental phenomena have been proposed in a wide variety of disciplines; nevertheless, most of these measures are of global character and do not consider complex spatial constraints, high variability and multivariate nature of the events. Therefore, we proposed an statistical framework that takes into account the complexities of the geographical space, where phenomena take place, by introducing the Validity Domain concept and carrying out clustering analyses in data with different constrained geographical spaces, hence, assessing the relative degree of clustering of the real distribution. Moreover, exclusively to the forest fire case, this research proposes two new methodologies to defining and mapping both the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) described as the interaction zone between burnable vegetation and anthropogenic infrastructures, and the prediction of fire ignition susceptibility. In this regard, the main objective of this Thesis was to carry out a basic statistical/- geospatial research with a strong application part to analyse and to describe complex phenomena as well as to overcome unsolved methodological problems in the characterisation of space-time patterns, in particular, the forest fire occurrences. Thus, this Thesis provides a response to the increasing demand for both environmental monitoring and management tools for the assessment of natural and anthropogenic hazards and risks, sustainable development, retrospective success analysis, etc. The major contributions of this work were presented at national and international conferences and published in 5 scientific journals. National and international collaborations were also established and successfully accomplished. -- Cette thèse développe une méthodologie statistique complète et flexible pour l'analyse et la détection des structures spatiales, temporelles et spatio-temporelles de données environnementales représentées comme de semis de points. Les méthodes ici développées ont été appliquées aux jeux de données simulées autant qu'A des phénomènes environnementaux réels; nonobstant, seulement le cas des feux forestiers dans le Canton du Tessin (la Suisse) et celui de Portugal sont expliqués dans ce document. Normalement, les phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être modélisés comme des processus ponctuels stochastiques ou chaque événement, par ex. les point d'ignition des feux forestiers, est déterminé par son emplacement spatial et son occurrence dans le temps. De plus, des informations tels que la surface bru^lée, les causes d'ignition, l'utilisation du sol, les caractéristiques topographiques, climatiques et météorologiques, etc., peuvent aussi être utilisées pour caractériser le phénomène étudié. Par conséquent, la définition de la structure spatio-temporelle représente un outil puissant pour compren- dre la distribution du phénomène et sa corrélation avec des processus sous-jacents tels que les facteurs socio-économiques, environnementaux et météorologiques. De ce fait, nous proposons une méthodologie basée sur l'adaptation et l'application de mesures statistiques et fractales des processus ponctuels d'analyse global (par ex. l'indice de Morisita, la dimension fractale par comptage de boîtes, le formalisme multifractal et la fonction K de Ripley) et local (par ex. la statistique de scan). Des nombreuses mesures décrivant les structures spatio-temporelles de phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être trouvées dans la littérature. Néanmoins, la plupart de ces mesures sont de caractère global et ne considèrent pas de contraintes spatiales com- plexes, ainsi que la haute variabilité et la nature multivariée des événements. A cet effet, la méthodologie ici proposée prend en compte les complexités de l'espace géographique ou le phénomène a lieu, à travers de l'introduction du concept de Domaine de Validité et l'application des mesures d'analyse spatiale dans des données en présentant différentes contraintes géographiques. Cela permet l'évaluation du degré relatif d'agrégation spatiale/temporelle des structures du phénomène observé. En plus, exclusif au cas de feux forestiers, cette recherche propose aussi deux nouvelles méthodologies pour la définition et la cartographie des zones périurbaines, décrites comme des espaces anthropogéniques à proximité de la végétation sauvage ou de la forêt, et de la prédiction de la susceptibilité à l'ignition de feu. A cet égard, l'objectif principal de cette Thèse a été d'effectuer une recherche statistique/géospatiale avec une forte application dans des cas réels, pour analyser et décrire des phénomènes environnementaux complexes aussi bien que surmonter des problèmes méthodologiques non résolus relatifs à la caractérisation des structures spatio-temporelles, particulièrement, celles des occurrences de feux forestières. Ainsi, cette Thèse fournit une réponse à la demande croissante de la gestion et du monitoring environnemental pour le déploiement d'outils d'évaluation des risques et des dangers naturels et anthro- pogéniques. Les majeures contributions de ce travail ont été présentées aux conférences nationales et internationales, et ont été aussi publiées dans 5 revues internationales avec comité de lecture. Des collaborations nationales et internationales ont été aussi établies et accomplies avec succès.

Analysis Methodology for Vortex-Induced Motion (VIM) of a Monocolumn Platform Applying the Hilbert-Huang Transform Method

Vortex-induced motion (VIM) is a highly nonlinear dynamic phenomenon. Usual spectral analysis methods, using the Fourier transform, rely on the hypotheses of linear and stationary dynamics. A method to treat nonstationary signals that emerge from nonlinear systems is denoted Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) method. The development of an analysis methodology to study the VIM of a monocolumn production, storage, and offloading system using HHT is presented. The purposes of the present methodology are to improve the statistics analysis of VIM. The results showed to be comparable to results obtained from a traditional analysis (mean of the 10% highest peaks) particularly for the motions in the transverse direction, although the difference between the results from the traditional analysis for the motions in the in-line direction showed a difference of around 25%. The results from the HHT analysis are more reliable than the traditional ones, owing to the larger number of points to calculate the statistics characteristics. These results may be used to design risers and mooring lines, as well as to obtain VIM parameters to calibrate numerical predictions. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4003493]

Statistical analysis in microbiology:statnotes

This book is aimed primarily at microbiologists who are undertaking research and who require a basic knowledge of statistics to analyse their experimental data. Computer software employing a wide range of data analysis methods is widely available to experimental scientists. The availability of this software, however, makes it essential that investigators understand the basic principles of statistics. Statistical analysis of data can be complex with many different methods of approach, each of which applies in a particular experimental circumstance. Hence, it is possible to apply an incorrect statistical method to data and to draw the wrong conclusions from an experiment. The purpose of this book, which has its origin in a series of articles published in the Society for Applied Microbiology journal ‘The Microbiologist’, is an attempt to present the basic logic of statistics as clearly as possible and therefore, to dispel some of the myths that often surround the subject. The 28 ‘Statnotes’ deal with various topics that are likely to be encountered, including the nature of variables, the comparison of means of two or more groups, non-parametric statistics, analysis of variance, correlating variables, and more complex methods such as multiple linear regression and principal components analysis. In each case, the relevant statistical method is illustrated with examples drawn from experiments in microbiological research. The text incorporates a glossary of the most commonly used statistical terms and there are two appendices designed to aid the investigator in the selection of the most appropriate test.

Atividade fisica e aptidão fisica de adolescentes : similaridades e contrastes em uma decada

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Motivação intrinseca e extrinseca nas aulas de educação fisica

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Reflexão sobre a politica desportiva em Moçambique : diagnostico sobre as instalações desportivas da cidade de Maputo

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Distribuição espacial de atributos de solo e de plantas na cultura do mamoeiro no norte capixaba

No Brasil, as lavouras de mamoeiro das planícies dos tabuleiros costeiros são as que melhor desenvolvem e aplicam tecnologias para a produção de mamão no mundo. O objetivo foi aplicar a estatística clássica e a geoestatística no mapeamento e na correlação da variabilidade espacial de atributos químicos e físicos de solo e de plantas de mamoeiro (Carica papaya L.) de uma lavoura comercial do norte capixaba cultivada em um Argissolo típico dos tabuleiros costeiros. O solo de textura arenosa de caráter coeso foi preparado convencionalmente e cultivado com mamoeiro variedade Golden THB. Após a sexagem, procederam-se as amostragens de solo, amostrado na projeção da copa (0-0,20 e 0,20-0,40 m) para a determinação dos atributos químicos e físicos, e de atributos biométricos das plantas em uma área de 1,2 ha (114 x 110 m) totalizando 129 pontos amostrais georreferenciados. Ao nono mês após o transplantio, registrou-se a altura da colheita dos primeiros frutos, o número e a massa dos frutos colhidos para estimativa da produtividade, amostrando três plantas por ponto amostral durante três meses. Os dados foram submetidos à análise estatística descritiva e à correlação de Pearson. A dependência espacial das variáveis foi analisada através da ferramenta geoestatística, com obtenção de semivariograma e os mapas de distribuição das variáveis. A maior parte dos atributos de solo e de plantas de mamoeiro apresenta dependência espacial e é mapeada adequadamente. Há correlação de dependência vertical para densidade do solo, argila, silte, resistência do solo à penetração na linha de plantio e na rua e volume total de poros. Dos atributos químicos não ocorre este comportamento apenas para K, Al e Sat K. As frações areia e argila foram os principais atributos a constituírem correlação com os demais. Há poucas correlações dos atributos do solo com os atributos biométricos e a produtividade do mamoeiro. Ocorre correlação positiva entre a produtividade inicial do mamoeiro com características biométricas ideias para as plantas de mamoeiro. A fertilidade e o preparo do solo são expressivos para o desenvolvimento do mamoeiro e para a variabilidade espacial dos atributos avaliados.

STIR, SPIR and SPAIR techniques in magnetic resonance of the breast: a comparative study

The amount of fat is a component that complicates the clinical evaluation and the differential diagnostic between benign and malign lesions in the breast MRI examinations. To overcome this problem, an effective erasing of the fat signal over the images acquisition process, is essentials. This study aims to compare three fat suppression techniques (STIR, SPIR, SPAIR) in the MR images of the breast and to evaluate the best image quality regarding its clinical usefulness. To mimic breast women, a breast phantom was constructed. First the exterior contour and, in second time, its content which was selected based on 7 samples with different components. Finally it was undergone to a MRI breast protocol with the three different fat saturation techniques. The examinations were performed on a 1.5 T MRI system (Philips®). A group of 5 experts evaluated 9 sequences, 3 of each with fat suppression techniques, in which the frequency offset and TI (Inversion Time) were the variables changed. This qualitative image analysis was performed according 4 parameters (saturation uniformity, saturation efficacy, detail of the anatomical structures and differentiation between the fibroglandular and adipose tissue), using a five-point Likert scale. The statistics analysis showed that anyone of the fat suppression techniques demonstrated significant differences compared to the others with (p > 0.05) and regarding each parameter independently. By Fleiss’ kappa coefficient there was a good agreement among observers P(e) = 0.68. When comparing STIR, SPIR and SPAIR techniques it was confirmed that all of them have advantages in the study of the breast MRI. For the studied parameters, the results through the Friedman Test showed that there are similar advantages applying anyone of these techniques.

As guardas de segurança para proteção a motociclistas: características e graus de eficácia

Os acidentes envolvendo veículos de duas rodas, são um dos maiores problemas da segurança rodoviária atual, no âmbito Europeu. Um dos tipos de acidentes que pode causar danos mais graves aos ocupantes desses veículos é o embate com guardas de segurança. Em consequência disso, neste trabalho foram desenvolvidas opiniões, abonatórias ou não, ao uso de dispositivos de proteção para motociclistas acoplados nas guardas de segurança. Estas opiniões vão partir de dados estatísticos, de estudos e exemplos concretos de vários autores e publicações relacionados com esta temática, sendo que o tipo de dispositivo de proteção para motociclistas que vai estar mais em foco e sendo ele o mais habitual nas estradas portuguesas será a saia metálica. Estes dispositivos de segurança para motociclistas ainda não são de uso obrigatório nas guardas de segurança na maioria dos países do continente Europeu, segundo a norma europeia EN 1317, apesar deste tipo de proteção já estar normalizada segundo padrões de lesões biomecânicos na zona da cabeça, cervical e anca/abdómen descritos na norma EN 1317 UNE 135900 – 1:2003, em alguns países é descurado o uso destas proteções, por não serem obrigatórias e porque ainda se tornam mais dispendiosas que as guardas de segurança habituais (barreiras de metal simples). Este estudo serviu essencialmente para verificar se estes dispositivos salvaguardam ou não a vida dos utilizadores de duas rodas, pois, se pelo contrário, aumentam ainda o risco, ou de lesões mais gravosas ou mesmo de morte, aquando o embate com as mesmas, os gastos associados a este tipo de equipamentos serão totalmente inúteis e desnecessários.

Contribuições da inovação e do empreendedorismo para o desempenho das PME angolanas: evidência empírica da cidade de N’Dalatando - KwanzaNorte (ANGOLA)

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto-Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto, para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Empreendedorismo e Internacionalização, sob orientação de Orlando Manuel Martins Marques de Lima Rua, PhD

Should screening for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae in HIV-men who have sex with men be recommended?

INTRODUCTION Sexually transmitted infections (STI) like Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) have been associated with increased risk of HIV acquisition (1). It has been also described as a high prevalence of asymptomatic CT and NG infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) (2). The aim of this study was to know the prevalence of CT and/or NG infections in asymptomatic HIV-MSM and the related factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS Prospective study of a cohort of asymptomatic HIV-MSM with follow-up in Malaga (southern Spain) during October 2012-May 2014. Patients with an opportunistic event or who received active antibiotic therapy for CT and/or NG in the previous month were excluded. All of them completed a questionnaire about sexual behaviour, barrier methods and recreational drugs use. Demographical, epidemiological, clinical, analytical and therapeutic data were also collected. Pharyngeal and rectal swabs, and urine samples were collected to be tested for CT and NG by nucleic acid amplification test (c4800 CT/NG. Roche Diagnostics, Mannheim, Germany) (3). STATISTICS ANALYSIS SPSS 17.0. RESULTS 255 patients were asked to participate and 248 of them accepted. Median age was 37.7 (30.6-46.3) years, median time since HIV diagnosis was 47.7 (10.5-104.1) months, and median CD4 cells count was 607 (440-824) cell/µL. There were 195 (78.6%) patients on antiretroviral therapy; 81.5% of them had undetectable viral load. 80.5% of the patients had a past history of STI. Infection by CT and/or NG was diagnosed in 24 (9.7%) patients. Overall four urine samples, two pharyngeal, and 15 rectal ones were positive for CT, and five pharyngeal and five rectal swabs were positive for NG. Two patients were co-infected by CT and NG: one with CT in urine and both in rectum, another with CT in urine and rectum and NG in pharynx. One patient presented CT in pharynx and rectum, and two patients NG in pharynx and rectum. Positive CT and/or NG tests were only related with detectable HIV viral load (OR 3.08, 95% CI 1.2-7.4; p=0.01). It was not related with sexual behaviour, nor with alcohol or recreational drugs use. CONCLUSIONS STI screening had a great acceptance in this population. There was a high prevalence of asymptomatic CT and/or NG infections. Rectum sample was the most effective one. Viral suppression could protect from these STI. Screening should be recommended in HIV-MSM.

Retaining principal components for discrete variables

The present study discusses retention criteria for principal components analysis (PCA) applied to Likert scale items typical in psychological questionnaires. The main aim is to recommend applied researchers to restrain from relying only on the eigenvalue-than-one criterion; alternative procedures are suggested for adjusting for sampling error. An additional objective is to add evidence on the consequences of applying this rule when PCA is used with discrete variables. The experimental conditions were studied by means of Monte Carlo sampling including several sample sizes, different number of variables and answer alternatives, and four non-normal distributions. The results suggest that even when all the items and thus the underlying dimensions are independent, eigenvalues greater than one are frequent and they can explain up to 80% of the variance in data, meeting the empirical criterion. The consequences of using Kaiser"s rule are illustrated with a clinical psychology example. The size of the eigenvalues resulted to be a function of the sample size and the number of variables, which is also the case for parallel analysis as previous research shows. To enhance the application of alternative criteria, an R package was developed for deciding the number of principal components to retain by means of confidence intervals constructed about the eigenvalues corresponding to lack of relationship between discrete variables.