Statistical testing against baseline was common in dental research

OBJECTIVES To assess the presence of within-group comparisons with baseline in a subset of leading dental journals and to explore possible associations with a range of study characteristics including journal and study design. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Thirty consecutive issues of five leading dental journals were electronically searched. The conduct and reporting of statistical analysis in respect of comparisons against baseline or otherwise along with the manner of interpretation of the results were assessed. Descriptive statistics were obtained, and chi-square test and Fisher's exact were undertaken to test the association between trial characteristics and overall study interpretation. RESULTS A total of 184 studies were included with the highest proportion published in Journal of Endodontics (n = 84, 46%) and most involving a single center (n = 157, 85%). Overall, 43 studies (23%) presented interpretation of their outcomes based solely on comparisons against baseline. Inappropriate use of baseline testing was found to be less likely in interventional studies (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Use of comparisons with baseline appears to be common among both observational and interventional research studies in dentistry. Enhanced conduct and reporting of statistical tests are required to ensure that inferences from research studies are appropriate and informative.

Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions

This paper analyzes the measure of systemic importance ∆CoV aR proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009, 2010) within the context of a similar class of risk measures used in the risk management literature. In addition, we develop a series of testing procedures, based on ∆CoV aR, to identify and rank the systemically important institutions. We stress the importance of statistical testing in interpreting the measure of systemic importance. An empirical application illustrates the testing procedures, using equity data for three European banks.

Statistical Analysis of Text Summarization Evaluation

This dissertation applies statistical methods to the evaluation of automatic summarization using data from the Text Analysis Conferences in 2008-2011. Several aspects of the evaluation framework itself are studied, including the statistical testing used to determine significant differences, the assessors, and the design of the experiment. In addition, a family of evaluation metrics is developed to predict the score an automatically generated summary would receive from a human judge and its results are demonstrated at the Text Analysis Conference. Finally, variations on the evaluation framework are studied and their relative merits considered. An over-arching theme of this dissertation is the application of standard statistical methods to data that does not conform to the usual testing assumptions.

Effect of rain on travel demand and traffic accidents

This paper studies the effect of rain on travel demand measured on the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway (MEX). Rainfall data monitored by the Japan Meteorological Agency's meso-scale network of weather stations are used. This study found that travel demand decreases during rainy days and, in particular, larger reductions occur over the weekend. The effect of rainfall on the number of accidents recorded on 10 routes on the MEX is also analysed. Statistical testing shows that the average frequency of accidents, during periods of rainfall, is significantly different from the average frequency at other times.

A Tobit model for analyzing speed limit compliance in work zones

Poor compliance with speed limits is a serious safety concern in work zones. Most studies of work zone speeds have focused on descriptive analyses and statistical testing without systematically capturing the effects of vehicle and traffic characteristics. Consequently, little is known about how the characteristics of surrounding traffic and platoons influence speeds. This paper develops a Tobit regression technique for innovatively modeling the probability and the magnitude of non-compliance with speed limits at various locations in work zones. Speed data is transformed into two groups—continuous for non-compliant and left-censored for compliant drivers—to model in a Tobit model framework. The modeling technique is illustrated using speed data from three long-term highway work zones in Queensland, Australia. Consistent and plausible model estimates across the three work zones support the appropriateness and validity of the technique. The results show that the probability and magnitude of speeding was higher for leaders of platoons with larger front gaps, during late afternoon and early morning, when traffic volumes were higher, and when higher proportions of surrounding vehicles were non-compliant. Light vehicles and their followers were also more likely to speed than others. Speeding was more common and greater in magnitude upstream than in the activity area, with higher compliance rates close to the end of the activity area and close to stop/slow traffic controllers. The modeling technique and results have great potential to assist in deployment of appropriate countermeasures by better identifying the traffic characteristics associated with speeding and the locations of lower compliance.

Systematic review of interventions to improve the provision of information for adults with primary brain tumors and their caregivers

Background: Adults with primary brain tumors and their caregivers have significant information needs. This review assessed the effect of interventions to improve information provision for adult primary brain tumor patients and/or their caregivers. Methods: We included randomized or nonrandomized trials testing educational interventions that had outcomes of information provision, knowledge, understanding, recall, or satisfaction with the intervention, for adults diagnosed with primary brain tumors and/or their family or caregivers. PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Reviews databases were searched for studies published between 1980 and June 2014. Results: Two randomized controlled, one non-randomized controlled, and 10 single group pre-post trials enrolled more than 411 participants. Five group, four practice/process change and four individual interventions assessed satisfaction (12 studies), knowledge (four studies) or information provision (2 studies). Nine studies reported high rates of satisfaction. Three studies showed statistically significant improvements over time in knowledge and two showed greater information was provided to intervention than control group participants, although statistical testing was not performed. Discussion: The trials assessed intermediate outcomes such as satisfaction, and only 4/13 reported on knowledge improvements. Few trials had a randomized controlled design and risk of bias was either evident or could not be assessed in most domains.

Systematic review of interventions to improve the provision of information for adults with primary brain tumours and their caregivers

Background: Adults with primary brain tumors and their caregivers have significant information needs. This review assessed the effect of interventions to improve information provision for adult primary brain tumor patients and/or their caregivers. Methods: We included randomized or nonrandomized trials testing educational interventions that had outcomes of information provision, knowledge, understanding, recall, or satisfaction with the intervention, for adults diagnosed with primary brain tumors and/or their family or caregivers. PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Reviews databases were searched for studies published between 1980 and June 2014. Results: Two randomized controlled, one non-randomized controlled, and 10 single group pre-post trials enrolled more than 411 participants. Five group, four practice/process change and four individual interventions assessed satisfaction (12 studies), knowledge (four studies) or information provision (2 studies). Nine studies reported high rates of satisfaction. Three studies showed statistically significant improvements over time in knowledge and two showed greater information was provided to intervention than control group participants, although statistical testing was not performed. Discussion: The trials assessed intermediate outcomes such as satisfaction, and only 4/13 reported on knowledge improvements. Few trials had a randomized controlled design and risk of bias was either evident or could not be assessed in most domains.

Lakes - Classification & Monitoring: a strategy for the classification of lakes

This is the report on Lakes – Classification and Monitoring, a strategy for the classification of lakes by the National Rivers Authority. This report describes a scheme for the assessment and monitoring of water and ecological quality in standing waters, greater than about 1ha in area, in England and Wales although it is generally relevant to Northwest Europe. Thirteen hydrological, chemical and biological variables are used to characterize the standing water body in any current sampling. Statistical testing on the chemical variables showed that at least six samples during a year would be needed to produce a representative sampling mean; but in this scheme the choice of variables minimizes logistic cost by not using boat sampling and time costs by not demanding extensive taxonomic work. Standing waters are classified in a state-changed system in which the contemporary values of the variables are compared with a reference baseline state and then placed in categories of percentage change from this baseline. The scheme is presently designed for use at about five year intervals on all lakes greater than 2ha area plus additional lakes of significant amenity or conservation interest.

Unique genetic variation at a species' rear edge is under threat from global climate change

Global climate change is having a significant effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species, causing both range shifts and population extinctions. To date, however, no consensus has emerged on how these processes will affect the range-wide genetic diversity of impacted species. It has been suggested that species that recolonized from low-latitude refugia might harbour high levels of genetic variation in rear-edge populations, and that loss of these populations could cause a disproportionately large reduction in overall genetic diversity in such taxa. In the present study, we have examined the distribution of genetic diversity across the range of the seaweed Chondrus crispus, a species that has exhibited a northward shift in its southern limit in Europe over the last 40 years. Analysis of 19 populations from both sides of the North Atlantic using mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), sequence data from two singlecopy nuclear regions and allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci revealed unique genetic variation for all marker classes in the rear-edge populations in Iberia, but not in the rear-edge populations in North America. Palaeodistribution modelling and statistical testing of alternative phylogeographic scenarios indicate that the unique genetic diversity in Iberian populations is a result not only of persistence in the region during the last glacial maximum, but also because this refugium did not contribute substantially to the recolonization of Europe after the retreat of the ice. Consequently, loss of these rear-edge populations as a result of ongoing climate change will have a major effect on the overall genetic diversity of the species, particularly in Europe, and this could compromise the adaptive potential of the species as a whole in the face of future global warming.

Prevalência do consumo de drogas ilícitas nas Forças Armadas estudo epidemiológico num dos ramos

RESUMO: Desde 1976 que as Forças Armadas desenvolvem acções de prevenção do consumo de drogas e álcool. Na década de 80 foi criada capacidade laboratorial e deu-se início a um programa de rastreios toxicológicos. No quinquénio 2001 a 2005, as proporções de resultados positivos, associando todos os tipos de rastreio, variaram entre 3,7% e 1,5%. De Outubro de 2006 a Julho de 2007 realizou-se um estudo analítico transversal, para estimar a prevalência do consumo de drogas (canabinóides, opiáceos, cocaína e anfetaminas) num dos Ramos das Forças Armadas, com base nos despistes realizados pelo seu laboratório. Foi utilizada uma amostra aleatória simples de 1039 militares, profissionais (QP) e contratados (RC), no activo e de ambos os sexos. Desde a nomeação dos militares a rastrear, passando pela cadeia de custódia das amostras até à obtenção do resultado foi utilizado apoio informático específico. O processo de pesquisa utilizou duas técnicas de triagem por imunoensaio e tecnologia de confirmação por GC/MS, de acordo com as recomendações europeias, permitindo estabelecer uma metodologia standard para organizações e empresas. A prevalência estimada, de consumidores de droga, foi de 3,8/1.000, para um erro de 0,37%. O número de casos registado (4) não permitiu a utilização de testes estatísticos que conduzissem à identificação de características determinantes da positividade, mas não deixou de revelar aspectos inesperados. A observação de séries de casos e a realização regular de estudos epidemiológicos, que ajudem a redefinir grupos alvo e a perceber a dimensão, as determinantes e as consequências do consumo de drogas é sugerida, em conclusão.--------------------------------------- RÉSUMÉ: Depuis 1976, les Forces Armées mettent au point des mesures visant à prévenir la consommation de drogues et d'alcool. En 1980, fut créé capacité laboratoriel et ont ensuite commencé un programme de dépistage toxicologique. Au cours des cinq années allant de 2001 à 2005, les proportions de consommateurs, impliquant tous les types de dépistage, allaient de 3,7% à 1,5 %. D'octobre 2006 à juillet 2007, une étude analytique transversale a été organisée pour évaluer la prévalence de l’usage de drogues (cannabis, opiacés, cocaïne et amphétamines) dans une branche de les Forces Armées, basée sur les dépistages faites par un laboratoire militaire, à l'aide d'un échantillon aléatoire de 1039 militaires, professionnels (QP) et sous contract (RC), à l’actif et des deux sexes. Tout au long du procès, de la nomination des donneurs, en passant par la chaine de garde des échantillons, jusqu’à obtention du résultat, il fut employé un appui informatique sécurisé. Le processus de recherche employa deux techniques de tri par imunoessay et la technologie de confirmation GC/MS, selon les recommandations européennes, permettant d'établir une méthodologie standard pour les organisations et les entreprises. La prévalence estimée fut de 3,8/1.000 pour une marge d’erreur de 0,37%. Le nombre de cas enregistrés (4) n'autorise pas l'utilisation de testes statistiques de menant à l'identification de caractéristiques déterminant de la positivité, mais il permet à révéler des aspects inattendus. L'observation de séries de cas et la tenue régulière d’études épidémiologiques, qui contribuent à redéfinir les groupes cibles et de comprendre l'ampleur, les déterminants et les conséquences de l'usage de drogues, est suggéré, en fin de compte.--------------------------------------- ABSTRACT: Since 1976, the Armed Forces, have been developing measures to prevent the use of drugs and alcohol. In 1980, was created laboratory facility which then started a program of toxicological screenings. In the five years running from 2001 to 2005, the proportions of consumers, involving all types of screening, ranged from 3,7% to 1,5%. From October 2006 to July 2007, a cross-sectional study was held to estimate the prevalence of drug use (cannabinoids, opiates, cocaine and amphetamines) in one branch of the Portuguese Armed Forces, based on laboratory screenings, using a random sample of 1039 military, professional (QP) and enlisted (RC), active-duty and of both sexes. Specific computer support was used all the way, from the appointment, including the chain of custody of samples, to the obtaining of the result. The process of search used two techniques for sorting by immunoassay and confirmation technology GC/MS, according to European recommendations, allowing to establish a standard methodology for organizations and companies. The estimated prevalence of drug users was 3.8/1.000 for a 0.37% error (95% confidence interval). The number of cases registered (4) does not permit use of statistical testing leading to the identification of characteristics weighing in the establishing to extrapolate for the population, but it allows revealing unexpected aspects. The observation of series of cases and the regular holding of epidemiological studies, which help redefine target groups and to understand the extent, the determinants and consequences of drug use, is suggested, in conclusion.

Male reproductive competition in the field crickets : gryllus veletis and G. pennsylvanicus

Sexual behavior in the field crickets, Gryllus veletis and G. pennsylvanicus , was studied in outdoor arenas (12 m2) at high and low levels of population density in 1983 and 1984. Crickets were weighed, individually marked, and observed from 2200 until 0800 hrs for at least 9 continuous nights. Calling was measured at 5 min intervals, and movement and matings were recorded hourly. Continuous 24 hr observations were also conducted,·and occurrences of aggressive and courtship songs were noted. The timing of males searching, calling, courting, and fighting for females should coincide with female movement and mating patterns. For most samples female movement and matings occurred at night in the 24 hr observations and were randomly distributed with time for both species in the 10 hr observations. Male movement for G. veletis high density only was enhanced at night in the 24 hr observations, however, males called more at night in both species at high and low densities. Male movement was randomly distributed with time in the 10 hr observations, and calling increased at dawn for the G. pennsylvanicus 1984 high density sample, but was randomly distributed in other samples. Most courtship and aggression songs in the 24 hr observations were too infrequent for statistical testing and generally did not coincide with matings. Assuming residual reproductive value, and costs attached to a male trait in terms of future reproductive success decline with age, males should behave in more costly ways with age; by calling and moving more with age. Consequently, mating rates should increase with age. Female behavior may not change with age. G. veletis , females moved more with age at both low density samples, however, crickets moved less with age at high density. G. pennsylvanicus females moved more with age in the 1984 low density sample, whereas crickets moved less with age in the 1983 high density sample. For both species males in the 1984 high density samples called less with age. For G. pennsylvanicus in 1983 calling and mating rates increased with age. Mating rates decreased with age for G. veletis males in the high density sample. Aging may not affect cricket behavior. As population density increases fewer calling sites become available, costs of territoriality increase, and matings resulting from non-calling behavior should increase. For both species the amount of calling and in G. veletis the distance travelled per night was not different between densities. G. pennsylvanicus males and females moved more at low density. At the same deneity levels there were no differences in calling, mating, and, movement rates in G. veletis , however, G. pennsylvanicus males moved more at high density in 1983 than 1984. There was a positive relationship between calling and mating for the G. pennsylvanicus low density sample only, and selection was acting directly to increase calling. For both species no relationships between movement and mating success was found, however, the selection gradient on movement in the G. veletis high density population was significant. The intensity of selection was not significant and was probably due to the inverse relationship between displacement and weight. Larger males should call more, mate more, and move less than smaller males. There were no correlations between calling and individual weight, and an inverse correlation between movement and size in the G. veletis high density population only. In G. pennsylvanicus , there was a positive correlation between individual weight and mating, but, some correlate of weight was under counter selection pressure and-prevented significance of the intensity of selection. In contrast, there was an inverse correlation in the G.·veletis low density B sample. Both measures of selection intensities were significant and showed that weight only was under selection pressures. An inverse correlation between calling and movement was found for G. veletis at low density only. Because males are territorial, females are predicted to move more than males, however, if movement is a mode of male-male reproductive competition then males may move more than females. G. pennsylvanicus males moved more than females in all samples, however, G. veletis males and females moved similar distances at all densities. The variation in relative mating success explained by calling scores, movement, and weight for both species and all samples were not significant In addition, for both species and all samples the intensity of selection never equalled the opportunity for selection.

Économétrie, théorie des tests et philosophie des sciences

Dans ce texte, nous revoyons certains développements récents de l’économétrie qui peuvent être intéressants pour des chercheurs dans des domaines autres que l’économie et nous soulignons l’éclairage particulier que l’économétrie peut jeter sur certains thèmes généraux de méthodologie et de philosophie des sciences, tels la falsifiabilité comme critère du caractère scientifique d’une théorie (Popper), la sous-détermination des théories par les données (Quine) et l’instrumentalisme. En particulier, nous soulignons le contraste entre deux styles de modélisation - l’approche parcimonieuse et l’approche statistico-descriptive - et nous discutons les liens entre la théorie des tests statistiques et la philosophie des sciences.

A phylogenomics approach to resolving fungal evolution, and phylogenetic method development

Bien que les champignons soient régulièrement utilisés comme modèle d'étude des systèmes eucaryotes, leurs relations phylogénétiques soulèvent encore des questions controversées. Parmi celles-ci, la classification des zygomycètes reste inconsistante. Ils sont potentiellement paraphylétiques, i.e. regroupent de lignées fongiques non directement affiliées. La position phylogénétique du genre Schizosaccharomyces est aussi controversée: appartient-il aux Taphrinomycotina (précédemment connus comme archiascomycetes) comme prédit par l'analyse de gènes nucléaires, ou est-il plutôt relié aux Saccharomycotina (levures bourgeonnantes) tel que le suggère la phylogénie mitochondriale? Une autre question concerne la position phylogénétique des nucléariides, un groupe d'eucaryotes amiboïdes que l'on suppose étroitement relié aux champignons. Des analyses multi-gènes réalisées antérieurement n'ont pu conclure, étant donné le choix d'un nombre réduit de taxons et l'utilisation de six gènes nucléaires seulement. Nous avons abordé ces questions par le biais d'inférences phylogénétiques et tests statistiques appliqués à des assemblages de données phylogénomiques nucléaires et mitochondriales. D'après nos résultats, les zygomycètes sont paraphylétiques (Chapitre 2) bien que le signal phylogénétique issu du jeu de données mitochondriales disponibles est insuffisant pour résoudre l'ordre de cet embranchement avec une confiance statistique significative. Dans le Chapitre 3, nous montrons à l'aide d'un jeu de données nucléaires important (plus de cent protéines) et avec supports statistiques concluants, que le genre Schizosaccharomyces appartient aux Taphrinomycotina. De plus, nous démontrons que le regroupement conflictuel des Schizosaccharomyces avec les Saccharomycotina, venant des données mitochondriales, est le résultat d'un type d'erreur phylogénétique connu: l'attraction des longues branches (ALB), un artéfact menant au regroupement d'espèces dont le taux d'évolution rapide n'est pas représentatif de leur véritable position dans l'arbre phylogénétique. Dans le Chapitre 4, en utilisant encore un important jeu de données nucléaires, nous démontrons avec support statistique significatif que les nucleariides constituent le groupe lié de plus près aux champignons. Nous confirmons aussi la paraphylie des zygomycètes traditionnels tel que suggéré précédemment, avec support statistique significatif, bien que ne pouvant placer tous les membres du groupe avec confiance. Nos résultats remettent en cause des aspects d'une récente reclassification taxonomique des zygomycètes et de leurs voisins, les chytridiomycètes. Contrer ou minimiser les artéfacts phylogénétiques telle l'attraction des longues branches (ALB) constitue une question récurrente majeure. Dans ce sens, nous avons développé une nouvelle méthode (Chapitre 5) qui identifie et élimine dans une séquence les sites présentant une grande variation du taux d'évolution (sites fortement hétérotaches - sites HH); ces sites sont connus comme contribuant significativement au phénomène d'ALB. Notre méthode est basée sur un test de rapport de vraisemblance (likelihood ratio test, LRT). Deux jeux de données publiés précédemment sont utilisés pour démontrer que le retrait graduel des sites HH chez les espèces à évolution accélérée (sensibles à l'ALB) augmente significativement le support pour la topologie « vraie » attendue, et ce, de façon plus efficace comparée à d'autres méthodes publiées de retrait de sites de séquences. Néanmoins, et de façon générale, la manipulation de données préalable à l'analyse est loin d’être idéale. Les développements futurs devront viser l'intégration de l'identification et la pondération des sites HH au processus d'inférence phylogénétique lui-même.

Comparaison des méthodes d'analyse de l'expression différentielle basée sur la dépendance des niveaux d'expression

La technologie des microarrays demeure à ce jour un outil important pour la mesure de l'expression génique. Au-delà de la technologie elle-même, l'analyse des données provenant des microarrays constitue un problème statistique complexe, ce qui explique la myriade de méthodes proposées pour le pré-traitement et en particulier, l'analyse de l'expression différentielle. Toutefois, l'absence de données de calibration ou de méthodologie de comparaison appropriée a empêché l'émergence d'un consensus quant aux méthodes d'analyse optimales. En conséquence, la décision de l'analyste de choisir telle méthode plutôt qu'une autre se fera la plupart du temps de façon subjective, en se basant par exemple sur la facilité d'utilisation, l'accès au logiciel ou la popularité. Ce mémoire présente une approche nouvelle au problème de la comparaison des méthodes d'analyse de l'expression différentielle. Plus de 800 pipelines d'analyse sont appliqués à plus d'une centaine d'expériences sur deux plateformes Affymetrix différentes. La performance de chacun des pipelines est évaluée en calculant le niveau moyen de co-régulation par l'entremise de scores d'enrichissements pour différentes collections de signatures moléculaires. L'approche comparative proposée repose donc sur un ensemble varié de données biologiques pertinentes, ne confond pas la reproductibilité avec l'exactitude et peut facilement être appliquée à de nouvelles méthodes. Parmi les méthodes testées, la supériorité de la sommarisation FARMS et de la statistique de l'expression différentielle TREAT est sans équivoque. De plus, les résultats obtenus quant à la statistique d'expression différentielle corroborent les conclusions d'autres études récentes à propos de l'importance de prendre en compte la grandeur du changement en plus de sa significativité statistique.

Features for detection of Parkinson's disease tremor from local field potentials of the subthalamic nucleus

Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS) is a treatment routinely used to alleviate the symptoms of Parkinson's disease (PD). In this type of treatment, electrical pulses are applied through electrodes implanted into the basal ganglia of the patient. As the symptoms are not permanent in most patients, it is desirable to develop an on-demand stimulator, applying pulses only when onset of the symptoms is detected. This study evaluates a feature set created for the detection of tremor - a cardinal symptom of PD. The designed feature set was based on standard signal features and researched properties of the electrical signals recorded from subthalamic nucleus (STN) within the basal ganglia, which together included temporal, spectral, statistical, autocorrelation and fractal properties. The most characterized tremor related features were selected using statistical testing and backward algorithms then used for classification on unseen patient signals. The spectral features were among the most efficient at detecting tremor, notably spectral bands 3.5-5.5 Hz and 0-1 Hz proved to be highly significant. The classification results for determination of tremor achieved 94% sensitivity with specificity equaling one.