Markov models of aging: theory and practice

We review and structure some of the mathematical and statistical models that have been developed over the past half century to grapple with theoretical and experimental questions about the stochastic development of aging over the life course. We suggest that the mathematical models are in large part addressing the problem of partitioning the randomness in aging: How does aging vary between individuals, and within an individual over the lifecourse? How much of the variation is inherently related to some qualities of the individual, and how much is entirely random? How much of the randomness is cumulative, and how much is merely short-term flutter? We propose that recent lines of statistical inquiry in survival analysis could usefully grapple with these questions, all the more so if they were more explicitly linked to the relevant mathematical and biological models of aging. To this end, we describe points of contact among the various lines of mathematical and statistical research. We suggest some directions for future work, including the exploration of information-theoretic measures for evaluating components of stochastic models as the basis for analyzing experiments and anchoring theoretical discussions of aging.

Statistics of the Dominion of New Zealand.

Title varies slightly.

Variation talk: Articulating meaning in statistics

Little is known about the way that teachers articulate notions of variation in their own words. The study reported here was conducted with 17 prospective secondary math and science teachers enrolled in a preservice teacher education course which engaged them in statistical inquiry of testing data. This qualitative study examines how these preservice teachers articulated notions of variation as they compared two distributions. Although the teachers made use of tandard statistical language, they also expressed rich views of variation through nonstandard terminology. This paper details the statistical language used by the rospective teachers, categorizing both standard and nonstandard expressions. Their nonstandard language revealed strong relationships between expressions of variation and expressions of distribution. Implications and the benefits of nonstandard language in statistics are outlined.

Remarks upon the importance of an inquiry into the amount and appropriation of wages by the working classes, addressed to the Statistical Section of the British Association at its meeting in Liverpool, 13th September, 1837 ... /

Mode of access: Internet.

A statistical and historical inquiry into the progress and magnitude of the population of Ireland.

p. 359-360, advertising matter.

An overview of mixed-effects statistical models for second language researchers

As in any field of scientific inquiry, advancements in the field of second language acquisition (SLA) rely in part on the interpretation and generalizability of study findings using quantitative data analysis and inferential statistics. While statistical techniques such as ANOVA and t-tests are widely used in second language research, this review article provides a review of a class of newer statistical models that have not yet been widely adopted in the field, but have garnered interest in other fields of language research. The class of statistical models called mixed-effects models are introduced, and the potential benefits of these models for the second language researcher are discussed. A simple example of mixed-effects data analysis using the statistical software package R (R Development Core Team, 2011) is provided as an introduction to the use of these statistical techniques, and to exemplify how such analyses can be reported in research articles. It is concluded that mixed-effects models provide the second language researcher with a powerful tool for the analysis of a variety of types of second language acquisition data.

Statistical Innovations Improve Prevalence Estimates of Nutrient Risk Populations: Applications in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake and excess sodium intake among adults age 19 years and older in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Twenty-four hour dietary recall and sociodemographic data were collected from each participant (n=1,663) in a cross-sectional study, Inquiry of Health of Sao Paulo, of a representative sample of the adult population of the city of Sao Paulo in 2003 (ISA-2003). The variability in intake was measured through two replications of the 24-hour recall in a subsample of this population in 2007 (ISA-2007). Usual intake was estimated by the PC-SIDE program (version 1.0, 2003, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University), which uses an approach developed by Iowa State University. The prevalence of nutrient inadequacy was calculated using the Estimated Average Requirement cut-point method for vitamins A and C, thiamin, riboflavin, niacin, copper, phosphorus, and selenium. For vitamin D, pantothenic acid, manganese, and sodium, the proportion of individuals with usual intake equal to or more than the Adequate Intake value was calculated. The percentage of individuals with intake equal to more than the Tolerable Upper Intake Level was calculated for sodium. The highest prevalence of inadequacy for males and females, respectively, occurred for vitamin A (67% and 58%), vitamin C (52% and 62%), thiamin (41% and 50%), and riboflavin (29% and 19%). The adjustment for the within-person variation presented lower prevalence of inadequacy due to removal of within-person variability. All adult residents of Sao Paulo had excess sodium intake, and the rates of nutrient inadequacy were high for certain key micronutrients. J Acad Nutr Diet. 2012;112:1614-1618.

Caracterização da transição da idade adulta para a terceira idade quanto ao estado nutricional, composição corporal e percepção da qualidade de vida

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Neural networks and statistical analysis for classification of corneal videokeratography maps based on Zernike coefficients: a quantitative comparison

PURPOSE: The main goal of this study was to develop and compare two different techniques for classification of specific types of corneal shapes when Zernike coefficients are used as inputs. A feed-forward artificial Neural Network (NN) and discriminant analysis (DA) techniques were used. METHODS: The inputs both for the NN and DA were the first 15 standard Zernike coefficients for 80 previously classified corneal elevation data files from an Eyesys System 2000 Videokeratograph (VK), installed at the Departamento de Oftalmologia of the Escola Paulista de Medicina, São Paulo. The NN had 5 output neurons which were associated with 5 typical corneal shapes: keratoconus, with-the-rule astigmatism, against-the-rule astigmatism, "regular" or "normal" shape and post-PRK. RESULTS: The NN and DA responses were statistically analyzed in terms of precision ([true positive+true negative]/total number of cases). Mean overall results for all cases for the NN and DA techniques were, respectively, 94% and 84.8%. CONCLUSION: Although we used a relatively small database, results obtained in the present study indicate that Zernike polynomials as descriptors of corneal shape may be a reliable parameter as input data for diagnostic automation of VK maps, using either NN or DA.

Turbulence in collisionless plasmas: statistical analysis from numerical simulations with pressure anisotropy

In recent years, we have experienced increasing interest in the understanding of the physical properties of collisionless plasmas, mostly because of the large number of astrophysical environments (e. g. the intracluster medium (ICM)) containing magnetic fields that are strong enough to be coupled with the ionized gas and characterized by densities sufficiently low to prevent the pressure isotropization with respect to the magnetic line direction. Under these conditions, a new class of kinetic instabilities arises, such as firehose and mirror instabilities, which have been studied extensively in the literature. Their role in the turbulence evolution and cascade process in the presence of pressure anisotropy, however, is still unclear. In this work, we present the first statistical analysis of turbulence in collisionless plasmas using three-dimensional numerical simulations and solving double-isothermal magnetohydrodynamic equations with the Chew-Goldberger-Low laws closure (CGL-MHD). We study models with different initial conditions to account for the firehose and mirror instabilities and to obtain different turbulent regimes. We found that the CGL-MHD subsonic and supersonic turbulences show small differences compared to the MHD models in most cases. However, in the regimes of strong kinetic instabilities, the statistics, i.e. the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of density and velocity, are very different. In subsonic models, the instabilities cause an increase in the dispersion of density, while the dispersion of velocity is increased by a large factor in some cases. Moreover, the spectra of density and velocity show increased power at small scales explained by the high growth rate of the instabilities. Finally, we calculated the structure functions of velocity and density fluctuations in the local reference frame defined by the direction of magnetic lines. The results indicate that in some cases the instabilities significantly increase the anisotropy of fluctuations. These results, even though preliminary and restricted to very specific conditions, show that the physical properties of turbulence in collisionless plasmas, as those found in the ICM, may be very different from what has been largely believed.

Searching for molecular markers in head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) by statistical and bioinformatic analysis of larynx-derived SAGE libraries

Background: Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is one of the most common malignancies in humans. The average 5-year survival rate is one of the lowest among aggressive cancers, showing no significant improvement in recent years. When detected early, HNSCC has a good prognosis, but most patients present metastatic disease at the time of diagnosis, which significantly reduces survival rate. Despite extensive research, no molecular markers are currently available for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. Methods: Aiming to identify differentially-expressed genes involved in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) development and progression, we generated individual Serial Analysis of Gene Expression (SAGE) libraries from a metastatic and non-metastatic larynx carcinoma, as well as from a normal larynx mucosa sample. Approximately 54,000 unique tags were sequenced in three libraries. Results: Statistical data analysis identified a subset of 1,216 differentially expressed tags between tumor and normal libraries, and 894 differentially expressed tags between metastatic and non-metastatic carcinomas. Three genes displaying differential regulation, one down-regulated (KRT31) and two up-regulated (BST2, MFAP2), as well as one with a non-significant differential expression pattern (GNA15) in our SAGE data were selected for real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in a set of HNSCC samples. Consistent with our statistical analysis, quantitative PCR confirmed the upregulation of BST2 and MFAP2 and the downregulation of KRT31 when samples of HNSCC were compared to tumor-free surgical margins. As expected, GNA15 presented a non-significant differential expression pattern when tumor samples were compared to normal tissues. Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study reporting SAGE data in head and neck squamous cell tumors. Statistical analysis was effective in identifying differentially expressed genes reportedly involved in cancer development. The differential expression of a subset of genes was confirmed in additional larynx carcinoma samples and in carcinomas from a distinct head and neck subsite. This result suggests the existence of potential common biomarkers for prognosis and targeted-therapy development in this heterogeneous type of tumor.

Quantum statistical correlations in thermal field theories: Boundary effective theory

We show that the one-loop effective action at finite temperature for a scalar field with quartic interaction has the same renormalized expression as at zero temperature if written in terms of a certain classical field phi(c), and if we trade free propagators at zero temperature for their finite-temperature counterparts. The result follows if we write the partition function as an integral over field eigenstates (boundary fields) of the density matrix element in the functional Schrodinger field representation, and perform a semiclassical expansion in two steps: first, we integrate around the saddle point for fixed boundary fields, which is the classical field phi(c), a functional of the boundary fields; then, we perform a saddle-point integration over the boundary fields, whose correlations characterize the thermal properties of the system. This procedure provides a dimensionally reduced effective theory for the thermal system. We calculate the two-point correlation as an example.

Phase transitions and spatially ordered counterion association in ionic-lipid membranes: A statistical model

We propose a statistical model to account for the gel-fluid anomalous phase transitions in charged bilayer- or lamellae-forming ionic lipids. The model Hamiltonian comprises effective attractive interactions to describe neutral-lipid membranes as well as the effect of electrostatic repulsions of the discrete ionic charges on the lipid headgroups. The latter can be counterion dissociated (charged) or counterion associated (neutral), while the lipid acyl chains may be in gel (low-temperature or high-lateral-pressure) or fluid (high-temperature or low-lateral-pressure) states. The system is modeled as a lattice gas with two distinct particle types-each one associated, respectively, with the polar-headgroup and the acyl-chain states-which can be mapped onto an Ashkin-Teller model with the inclusion of cubic terms. The model displays a rich thermodynamic behavior in terms of the chemical potential of counterions (related to added salt concentration) and lateral pressure. In particular, we show the existence of semidissociated thermodynamic phases related to the onset of charge order in the system. This type of order stems from spatially ordered counterion association to the lipid headgroups, in which charged and neutral lipids alternate in a checkerboard-like order. Within the mean-field approximation, we predict that the acyl-chain order-disorder transition is discontinuous, with the first-order line ending at a critical point, as in the neutral case. Moreover, the charge order gives rise to continuous transitions, with the associated second-order lines joining the aforementioned first-order line at critical end points. We explore the thermodynamic behavior of some physical quantities, like the specific heat at constant lateral pressure and the degree of ionization, associated with the fraction of charged lipid headgroups.

Statistical models of mixtures with a biaxial nematic phase

We consider a simple Maier-Saupe statistical model with the inclusion of disorder degrees of freedom to mimic the phase diagram of a mixture of rodlike and disklike molecules. A quenched distribution of shapes leads to a phase diagram with two uniaxial and a biaxial nematic structure. A thermalized distribution, however, which is more adequate to liquid mixtures, precludes the stability of this biaxial phase. We then use a two-temperature formalism, and assume a separation of relaxation times, to show that a partial degree of annealing is already sufficient to stabilize a biaxial nematic structure.

TESTING STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS ON RANDOM TREES AND APPLICATIONS TO THE PROTEIN CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM

Efficient automatic protein classification is of central importance in genomic annotation. As an independent way to check the reliability of the classification, we propose a statistical approach to test if two sets of protein domain sequences coming from two families of the Pfam database are significantly different. We model protein sequences as realizations of Variable Length Markov Chains (VLMC) and we use the context trees as a signature of each protein family. Our approach is based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type goodness-of-fit test proposed by Balding et at. [Limit theorems for sequences of random trees (2008), DOI: 10.1007/s11749-008-0092-z]. The test statistic is a supremum over the space of trees of a function of the two samples; its computation grows, in principle, exponentially fast with the maximal number of nodes of the potential trees. We show how to transform this problem into a max-flow over a related graph which can be solved using a Ford-Fulkerson algorithm in polynomial time on that number. We apply the test to 10 randomly chosen protein domain families from the seed of Pfam-A database (high quality, manually curated families). The test shows that the distributions of context trees coming from different families are significantly different. We emphasize that this is a novel mathematical approach to validate the automatic clustering of sequences in any context. We also study the performance of the test via simulations on Galton-Watson related processes.