Cherry picking with synthetic controls

The synthetic control (SC) method has been recently proposed as an alternative method to estimate treatment e ects in comparative case studies. Abadie et al. [2010] and Abadie et al. [2015] argue that one of the advantages of the SC method is that it imposes a data-driven process to select the comparison units, providing more transparency and less discretionary power to the researcher. However, an important limitation of the SC method is that it does not provide clear guidance on the choice of predictor variables used to estimate the SC weights. We show that such lack of speci c guidances provides signi cant opportunities for the researcher to search for speci cations with statistically signi cant results, undermining one of the main advantages of the method. Considering six alternative speci cations commonly used in SC applications, we calculate in Monte Carlo simulations the probability of nding a statistically signi cant result at 5% in at least one speci cation. We nd that this probability can be as high as 13% (23% for a 10% signi cance test) when there are 12 pre-intervention periods and decay slowly with the number of pre-intervention periods. With 230 pre-intervention periods, this probability is still around 10% (18% for a 10% signi cance test). We show that the speci cation that uses the average pre-treatment outcome values to estimate the weights performed particularly bad in our simulations. However, the speci cation-searching problem remains relevant even when we do not consider this speci cation. We also show that this speci cation-searching problem is relevant in simulations with real datasets looking at placebo interventions in the Current Population Survey (CPS). In order to mitigate this problem, we propose a criterion to select among SC di erent speci cations based on the prediction error of each speci cations in placebo estimations

Open Specification for BIM : Sydney Opera House Case Study

Executive Summary The objective of this report was to use the Sydney Opera House as a case study of the application of Building Information Modelling (BIM). The Sydney opera House is a complex, large building with very irregular building configuration, that makes it a challenging test. A number of key concerns are evident at SOH: • the building structure is complex, and building service systems - already the major cost of ongoing maintenance - are undergoing technology change, with new computer based services becoming increasingly important. • the current “documentation” of the facility is comprised of several independent systems, some overlapping and is inadequate to service current and future services required • the building has reached a milestone age in terms of the condition and maintainability of key public areas and service systems, functionality of spaces and longer term strategic management. • many business functions such as space or event management require up-to-date information of the facility that are currently inadequately delivered, expensive and time consuming to update and deliver to customers. • major building upgrades are being planned that will put considerable strain on existing Facilities Portfolio services, and their capacity to manage them effectively While some of these concerns are unique to the House, many will be common to larger commercial and institutional portfolios. The work described here supported a complementary task which sought to identify if a building information model – an integrated building database – could be created, that would support asset & facility management functions (see Sydney Opera House – FM Exemplar Project, Report Number: 2005-001-C-4 Building Information Modelling for FM at Sydney Opera House), a business strategy that has been well demonstrated. The development of the BIMSS - Open Specification for BIM has been surprisingly straightforward. The lack of technical difficulties in converting the House’s existing conventions and standards to the new model based environment can be related to three key factors: • SOH Facilities Portfolio – the internal group responsible for asset and facility management - have already well established building and documentation policies in place. The setting and adherence to well thought out operational standards has been based on the need to create an environment that is understood by all users and that addresses the major business needs of the House. • The second factor is the nature of the IFC Model Specification used to define the BIM protocol. The IFC standard is based on building practice and nomenclature, widely used in the construction industries across the globe. For example the nomenclature of building parts – eg ifcWall, corresponds to our normal terminology, but extends the traditional drawing environment currently used for design and documentation. This demonstrates that the international IFC model accurately represents local practice for building data representation and management. • a BIM environment sets up opportunities for innovative processes that can exploit the rich data in the model and improve services and functions for the House: for example several high-level processes have been identified that could benefit from standardized Building Information Models such as maintenance processes using engineering data, business processes using scheduling, venue access, security data and benchmarking processes using building performance data. The new technology matches business needs for current and new services. The adoption of IFC compliant applications opens the way forward for shared building model collaboration and new processes, a significant new focus of the BIM standards. In summary, SOH current building standards have been successfully drafted for a BIM environment and are confidently expected to be fully developed when BIM is adopted operationally by SOH. These BIM standards and their application to the Opera House are intended as a template for other organisations to adopt for the own procurement and facility management activities. Appendices provide an overview of the IFC Integrated Object Model and an understanding IFC Model Data.

Towards executable specification : combining i* and AgentSpeak(L).

Agent-oriented conceptual modelling (AoCM) approaches in Requirements Engineering (RE) have received considerable attention recently. Semi-formal modeling frameworks such as i* assist analysts in requirements elicitation and reasoning of early-phase RE. AgentSpeak(L) is a widely accepted agent programming language. The Strategic Rationale (SR) model of the i* framework naturally lends itself to AgentSpeak(L) programs. Furthermore, the Strategic Dependency (SD) component of the i* framework prescribes the interaction between the agents in a multi-agent environment. This paper proposes a formal methodology for transforming a SR model to an AgentS- peak(L) agent. The constructed AgentSpeak(L) agents will then form the essential components of a multi-agent system, MAS.

Host searching behaviour of Diachasmimorpha kraussii (Fullaway) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Opiinae), a polyphagous parasitoid of Dacinae fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Diachasmimorpha kraussii (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Opiinae) is a koinobiont larval parasitoid of dacine fruit flies of the genus Bactrocera (Diptera: Tephritidae) in its native range (Australia, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands). The wasp is a potentially important control agent for pest fruit flies, having been considered for both classical and inundative biological control releases. I investigated the host searching, selection and utilisation mechanisms of the wasp against native host flies within its native range (Australia). Such studies are rare in opiine research where the majority of studies, because of the applied nature of the research, have been carried out using host flies and environments which are novel to the wasps. Diachasmimorpha kraussii oviposited equally into maggots of four fruit fly species, all of which coexist with the wasp in its native range (Australia), when tested in a choice trial using a uniform artificial diet media. While eggs laid into Bactrocera tryoni and B. jarvisi developed successfully through to adult wasps, eggs laid into B. cucumis and B. cacuminata were encapsulated. These results suggest that direct larval cues are not an important element in host selection by D. kraussii. Further exploring how D. kraussii locates suitable host larvae, I investigated the role of plant cues in host searching and selection. This was examined in a laboratory choice trial using uninfested fruit or fruit infested with either B. tryoni or B. jarvisi maggots. The results showed a consistent preference ranking among infested fruits by the wasp, with guava and peach most preferred, but with no response to uninfested fruits. Thus, it appears the wasp uses chemical cues emitted in response to fruit fly larval infestation for host location, but does not use cues from uninfested fruits. To further tease apart the role of (i) suitable and non-suitable maggots, (ii) infested and uninfested fruits of different plant species, and (iii) adult flies, in wasp host location and selection, I carried out a series of behavioural tests where I manipulated these attributes in a field cage. These trials confirmed that D. kraussii did not respond to cues in uninfested fruits, that there were consistent preferences by the wasps for different maggot infested fruits, that fruit preference did not vary depending on whether the maggots were physiologically suitable or not suitable for wasp offspring development, and finally, that adult flies appear to play a secondary role as indicators of larval infestation. To investigate wasp behaviour in an unrestrained environment, I concurrently observed diurnal foraging behaviours of both the wasp and one of its host fly in a small nectarine orchard. Wasp behaviour, both spatially and temporally, was not correlated with adult fruit fly behaviour or abundance. This study reinforced the point that infested fruit seems to be the primary cue used by foraging wasps. Wasp and fly feeding and mating was not observed in the orchard, implying these activities are occurring elsewhere. It is highly unlikely that these behaviours were happening within the orchard during the night as both insects are diurnal. As the final component of investigating host location, I carried out a habitat preference study for the wasp at the landscape scale. Using infested sentinel fruits, I tested the parasitism rate of B. tryoni in eucalyptus sclerophyll forest, rainforest and suburbia in South East Queensland. Although, rainforest is the likely endemic habitat of both B. tryoni and D. kraussii, B. tryoni abundance is significantly greater in suburban environments followed by eucalyptus sclerophyll forest. Parasitism rate was found to be higher in suburbia than in the eucalyptus sclerophyll forest, while no parasitism was recorded in the rainforest. This result suggests that wasps orient within the landscape towards areas of high host density and are not restricted by habitat types. Results from the different experiments suggest that host searching, selection and utilisation behaviour of D. kraussii are strongly influenced by cues associated with fruit fly larval feeding. Cues from uninfested fruits, the host larvae themselves, and the adult host flies play minimal roles. The discussion focuses on the fit of D. kraussii to Vinson’s classical parasitoid host location model and the implications of results for biological control, including recommendations for host and plant preference screening protocols and release regimes.

Patterns of query reformulation during web searching

Query reformulation is a key user behavior during Web search. Our research goal is to develop predictive models of query reformulation during Web searching. This article reports results from a study in which we automatically classified the query-reformulation patterns for 964,780 Web searching sessions, composed of 1,523,072 queries, to predict the next query reformulation. We employed an n-gram modeling approach to describe the probability of users transitioning from one query-reformulation state to another to predict their next state. We developed first-, second-, third-, and fourth-order models and evaluated each model for accuracy of prediction, coverage of the dataset, and complexity of the possible pattern set. The results show that Reformulation and Assistance account for approximately 45% of all query reformulations; furthermore, the results demonstrate that the first- and second-order models provide the best predictability, between 28 and 40% overall and higher than 70% for some patterns. Implications are that the n-gram approach can be used for improving searching systems and searching assistance.

Predicting query reformulation during web searching

This paper reports results from a study in which we automatically classified the query reformulation patterns for 964,780 Web searching sessions (composed of 1,523,072 queries) in order to predict what the next query reformulation would be. We employed an n-gram modeling approach to describe the probability of searchers transitioning from one query reformulation state to another and predict their next state. We developed first, second, third, and fourth order models and evaluated each model for accuracy of prediction. Findings show that Reformulation and Assistance account for approximately 45 percent of all query reformulations. Searchers seem to seek system searching assistant early in the session or after a content change. The results of our evaluations show that the first and second order models provided the best predictability, between 28 and 40 percent overall, and higher than 70 percent for some patterns. Implications are that the n-gram approach can be used for improving searching systems and searching assistance in real time.

Fast searching algorithm for candidate satellite-node set in NLMG

The Node-based Local Mesh Generation (NLMG) algorithm, which is free of mesh inconsistency, is one of core algorithms in the Node-based Local Finite Element Method (NLFEM) to achieve the seamless link between mesh generation and stiffness matrix calculation, and the seamless link helps to improve the parallel efficiency of FEM. Furthermore, the key to ensure the efficiency and reliability of NLMG is to determine the candidate satellite-node set of a central node quickly and accurately. This paper develops a Fast Local Search Method based on Uniform Bucket (FLSMUB) and a Fast Local Search Method based on Multilayer Bucket (FLSMMB), and applies them successfully to the decisive problems, i.e. presenting the candidate satellite-node set of any central node in NLMG algorithm. Using FLSMUB or FLSMMB, the NLMG algorithm becomes a practical tool to reduce the parallel computation cost of FEM. Parallel numerical experiments validate that either FLSMUB or FLSMMB is fast, reliable and efficient for their suitable problems and that they are especially effective for computing the large-scale parallel problems.

Searching the self in Seoul : trans-youth and urban social networking in Korea

This paper presents a brief analysis of Seoul trans-youth’s search for identity through urban social networking, arguing that technological, socio-cultural and environmental (urban) contexts frame how mobility and ubiquity are (re)created in Seoul. The paper is empirically based on fieldwork conducted in Seoul, South Korea, from 2007 to 2008 as part of a research project on the mobile play culture of Seoul trans-youth(a term that will be explained in detail in the following section). Shared Visual Ethnography (SVE) was used as the research method which involved sharing of visual ethnographic data that were created by the participants. More specifically, the participants were asked to take photos, which were then shared and discussed with other participants and the researcher on the photo-sharing service Flickr. The research also involved a questionnaire and daily activity diaries, as well as interviews. A total of 44 Korean transyouths – including 23 females and 21 males – participated in interviews and photo-sharing. The paper draws specifically on the qualitative data from individual and/or group interviews, the total duration of which was 2–2.5 hours for each participant.