Controling delayed transitions with applications to prevent single species extinctions

A new method is proposed to control delayed transitions towards extinction in single population theoretical models with discrete time undergoing saddle-node bifurcations. The control method takes advantage of the delaying properties of the saddle remnant arising after the bifurcation, and allows to sustain populations indefinitely. Our method, which is shown to work for deterministic and stochastic systems, could generally be applied to avoid transitions tied to one-dimensional maps after saddle-node bifurcations.

Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges

Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species' range shifts, changes in phenology and species' extinctions, accurate projections of species' responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species' responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species' distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the "trailing edge" of shifting populations, species' interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes A occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species' distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species' migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species' distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. (c) 2007 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GrnbH. All rights reserved.

Beyond species loss: the extinction of ecological interactions in a changing world

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The loss of indirect interactions leads to cascading extinctions of carnivores

Species extinctions are biased towards higher trophic levels, and primary extinctions are often followed by unexpected secondary extinctions. Currently, predictions on the vulnerability of ecological communities to extinction cascades are based on models that focus on bottom-up effects, which cannot capture the effects of extinctions at higher trophic levels. We show, in experimental insect communities, that harvesting of single carnivorous parasitoid species led to a significant increase in extinction rate of other parasitoid species, separated by four trophic links. Harvesting resulted in the release of prey from top-down control, leading to increased interspecific competition at the herbivore trophic level. This resulted in increased extinction rates of non-harvested parasitoid species when their host had become rare relative to other herbivores. The results demonstrate a mechanism for horizontal extinction cascades, and illustrate that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide-ranging ripple effects through ecosystems, including unexpected extinctions.

The state and known impacts of fish species transferred to or within continental Africa

Fish introductions have been made from small fish ponds to the largest lakes in Africa. The primary intent of these introductions has been to sustain or increase fish production, although some introductions have been made to develop sport fisheries and to control unwanted organisms. Some of these introductions have fulfilled their objective in the short term, but several of these "successful" introductions have created uncertainties about their long term sustainability. Lates niloticus, Oreochromis niloticus, O. leucostictus, Tilapia melanopleura and T. zilli were introduced into lakes Victoria and Kyoga in 1950s and early 1960s. By the 1980s O. niloticus and O. niloticus dominated the fisheries of these lakes, virtually eliminating a number of endemic fish species. The loss of genetic diversity of the fish in the worlds second largest lake has also been accompanied by a loss of trophic diversity. The transformation of the fish community has, in Lake Victoria coincided with a profound eutrophication (algal blooms, fish kills, hypolimnetic anoxia) which might be related to alterations of the lake's food-web structure. In contrast, the introduction of a planktivore, Limnothrissa miodon into Lake Kivu and the Kariba reservoir has established highly successful fisheries with little documented effect on the pre-existing fish community or trophic ecology of the lakes. The highly endemised species-rich African Great lakes may be particularly sensitive to species introductions and require special consideration and caution when introductions are contemplated because species extinctions, introgressive hybridization and ecosystem alterations may occur following fish introductions.

Climate change impact on biodiversity in Switzerland: a review. Journal for Nature Conservation

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and consider some perspectives for the future at the national level. The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution toward mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends. These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species.

Biotic effects of the Chicxulub impact, K-T catastrophe and sea level change in Texas

Biotic effects of the Chicxulub impact, the K-T event and sea level change upon planktic foraminifera were evaluated in a new core and outcrops along the Brazos River, Texas, about 1000 km from the Chicxulub impact crater on Yucatan, Mexico. Sediment deposition occurred in a middle neritic environment that shallowed to inner neritic depths near the end of the Maastrichtian. The sea level fall scoured submarine channels, which were infilled by a sandstone complex with reworked Chicxulub impact spherules and clasts with spherules near the base. The original Chicxulub impact ejecta layer was discovered 45-60 cm below the sandstone complex, and predates the K-T mass extinction by about 300,000 years. Results show that the Chicxulub impact caused no species extinctions or any other significant biotic effects. The subsequent sea level fall to inner neritic depth resulted in the disappearance of all larger (>150 mu m) deeper dwelling species creating a pseudo-mass extinction and a survivor assemblage of small surface dwellers and low oxygen tolerant taxa. The K-T boundary and mass extinction was identified 40-80 cm above the sandstone complex where all but some heterohelicids, hedbergellids and the disaster opportunistic guembelitfids went extinct, coincident with the evolution of first Danian species and the global delta(13)C shift. These data reveal that sea level changes profoundly influenced marine assemblages in near shore environments, that the Chicxulub impact and K-T mass extinction are two separate and unrelated events, and that the biotic effects of this impact have been vastly overestimated. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?

Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Is chytridiomycosis an emerging infectious disease in Asia?

The disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has caused dramatic amphibian population declines and extinctions in Australia, Central and North America, and Europe. Bd is associated with >200 species extinctions of amphibians, but not all species that become infected are susceptible to the disease. Specifically, Bd has rapidly emerged in some areas of the world, such as in Australia, USA, and throughout Central and South America, causing population and species collapse. The mechanism behind the rapid global emergence of the disease is poorly understood, in part due to an incomplete picture of the global distribution of Bd. At present, there is a considerable amount of geographic bias in survey effort for Bd, with Asia being the most neglected continent. To date, Bd surveys have been published for few Asian countries, and infected amphibians have been reported only from Indonesia, South Korea, China and Japan. Thus far, there have been no substantiated reports of enigmatic or suspected disease-caused population declines of the kind that has been attributed to Bd in other areas. In order to gain a more detailed picture of the distribution of Bd in Asia, we undertook a widespread, opportunistic survey of over 3,000 amphibians for Bd throughout Asia and adjoining Papua New Guinea. Survey sites spanned 15 countries, approximately 36° latitude, 111° longitude, and over 2000 m in elevation. Bd prevalence was very low throughout our survey area (2.35% overall) and infected animals were not clumped as would be expected in epizootic events. This suggests that Bd is either newly emerging in Asia, endemic at low prevalence, or that some other ecological factor is preventing Bd from fully invading Asian amphibians. The current observed pattern in Asia differs from that in many other parts of the world.

A perda de grupos funcionais em comunidades virtuais: efeito das interações entre espécies e grupos funcionais

High levels of local, regional, and global extinctions has progressively simplified communities in terms of both species and ecosystem functioning. Theoretical models demonstrated that the degree of functional redundancy determines the rates of functional group loss in response to species extinctions. Here, we improve the theoretical predictions by incorporating in the model interactions between species and between functional groups. In this study, we tested the effect of different scenarios of interspecific interactions and effects between functional groups on the resistance to loss of community functional groups. Virtual communities have been built with different distribution patterns of species in functional groups, both with high and low evenness. A matrix A was created to represent the net effect of interspecific interactions among all species, representing nesting patterns, modularity, sensitive species, and dominant species. Moreover, a second matrix B was created to represent the interactions between functional groups, also exhibiting different patterns. The extinction probability of each species was calculated based on community species richness and by the intensity of the interspecific interactions that act upon it and group to which it belongs. In the model, successive extinctions decrease the community species richness, the degree of functional redundancy and, consequently, the number of functional groups that remain in the system. For each scenario of functional redundancy, A, and B, we ran 1000 simulations to generate an average functional extinction curve. Different model assumptions were able to generate remarkable variation on functional extinction curves. More extreme variations occurred when the matrix A and B caused a higher heterogeneity in the species extinction probability. Scenarios with sensitive species, positive or negative, showed a greater variation than the scenarios with dominant species. Nested interactions showed greater variation than scenarios where the interactions were in modules. Communities with maximal functional evenness can only be destabilized by the interactions between species and functional groups. In contrast, communities with low functional evenness can have its resistance either increased or decreased by the interactions. The concentration of positive interactions in low redundancy groups or negative interactions in high redundancy groups was able to decrease the functional extinction rates. In contrast, the concentration of negative interactions in low redundancy groups or positive interactions in high redundancy groups was able to increase the functional extinction rates. This model shows results that are relevant for species priorization in ecosystem conservation and restoration

Marsh deer (Blastocerus Dichotomus) reintroduction in the Jataí Ecological Station (Luís Antônio, SP): spatial preferences

A destruição dos habitats naturais e a extinção de espécies têm crescido muito a partir da última metade do século XX. Nesse contexto, o aumento do número de espécies ameaçadas tem proporcionado maior uso da reintrodução como estratégia de conservação no combate à atual taxa de extinção. O presente trabalho focaliza um estudo de 16 meses realizado com cervos-do-pantanal reintroduzidos na Estação Ecológica de Jataí. Os animais foram marcados com rádio-colares e monitorados diariamente entre dezembro de 1998 e abril de 2000, tendo suas atividades de deslocamento e uso do espaço acompanhadas por triangulação. Os animais exploraram várzeas dentro da unidade de conservação e também uma área de várzea pertencente a uma propriedade particular localizada na fronteira oeste da estação. Durante o período de estudo, a maioria dos cervos reintroduzidos utilizou a área de várzea particular mais intensivamente que as várzeas da unidade de conservação. A preferência demonstrada por essa área confirmou sua importância ecológica, evidenciando a necessidade de proteção por meio de sua incorporação aos limites da Estação Ecológica de Jataí.

Impact of above- and below-ground invertebrates on temporal and spatial stability of grassland of different diversity

1. Recent theoretical studies suggest that the stability of ecosystem processes is not governed by diversity per se, but by multitrophic interactions in complex communities. However, experimental evidence supporting this assumption is scarce.2. We investigated the impact of plant diversity and the presence of above- and below-ground invertebrates on the stability of plant community productivity in space and time, as well as the interrelationship between both stability measures in experimental grassland communities.3. We sampled above-ground plant biomass on subplots with manipulated above- and below-ground invertebrate densities of a grassland biodiversity experiment (Jena Experiment) 1, 4 and 6 years after the establishment of the treatments to investigate temporal stability. Moreover, we harvested spatial replicates at the last sampling date to explore spatial stability.4. The coefficient of variation of spatial and temporal replicates served as a proxy for ecosystem stability. Both spatial and temporal stability increased to a similar extent with plant diversity. Moreover, there was a positive correlation between spatial and temporal stability, and elevated plant density might be a crucial factor governing the stability of diverse plant communities.5. Above-ground insects generally increased temporal stability, whereas impacts of both earthworms and above-ground insects depended on plant species richness and the presence of grasses. These results suggest that inconsistent results of previous studies on the diversity–stability relationship have in part been due to neglecting higher trophic-level interactions governing ecosystem stability.6. Changes in plant species diversity in one trophic level are thus unlikely to mirror changes in multitrophic interrelationships. Our results suggest that both above- and below-ground invertebrates decouple the relationship between spatial and temporal stability of plant community productivity by differently affecting the homogenizing mechanisms of plants in diverse plant communities.7.Synthesis. Species extinctions and accompanying changes in multitrophic interactions are likely to result not only in alterations in the magnitude of ecosystem functions but also in its variability complicating the assessment and prediction of consequences of current biodiversity loss.

Planktic foraminiferal turnover across the Paleocene-Eocene transition in the Bay of Biscay, North Atlantic

Planktic foraminifera across the Paleocene-Eocene transition at DSDP Site 401 indicate that the benthic foraminiferal mass extinction occurred within Subzone P 6a of Berggren and Miller (1988), or PS of Berggren et al. (1995) and coincident with a sudden 2.0? excursion in 6r3C values. The benthic foraminiferal extinction event (BFEE) and Sr3C excursion was accompanied by a planktic foraminiferal turnover marked by an influx of warm water species (Morozovella and Acarinina), a decrease in cooler water species (Subbotina), a sudden short-term increase in low oxygen tolerant taxa (Chiloguembelina), and no significant species extinctions. These faunal changes suggest climatic warming, expansion of the oxygen minimum zone, and a well stratified ocean water column. Oxygen isotope data of the surface dweller M. subbotina suggest climate warming beginning with a gradual 0.5? decrease in delta180 in the 175 cm preceding the benthic foraminiferal extinction event followed by a sudden decrease of 1? (4°C) at the BFEE. The delta13C excursion occurred over 27 cm of sediment and, assuming constant sediment accumulation rates, represents a maximum of 23 ka. Recovery to pre-excursion delta13C values occurs within 172 cm, or about 144 ka. Climate cooling begins in Subzone P 6c as indicated by an increase in cooler water subbotinids and acarininids with rounded chambers and a decrease in warm water morozovellids.

Rewilding Ballard | Growing Small-Scale Community Habitat

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06