The evaluation of the spatial and temporal stability of sugarcane farm performance based on yield and commercial cane sugar

In broader catchment scale investigations, there is a need to understand and ultimately exploit the spatial variation of agricultural crops for an improved economic return. In many instances, this spatial variation is temporally unstable and may be different for various crop attributes and crop species. In the Australian sugar industry, the opportunity arose to evaluate the performance of 231 farms in the Tully Mill area in far north Queensland using production information on cane yield (t/ha) and CCS ( a fresh weight measure of sucrose content in the cane) accumulated over a 12-year period. Such an arrangement of data can be expressed as a 3-way array where a farm x attribute x year matrix can be evaluated and interactions considered. Two multivariate techniques, the 3-way mixture method of clustering and the 3-mode principal component analysis, were employed to identify meaningful relationships between farms that performed similarly for both cane yield and CCS. In this context, farm has a spatial component and the aim of this analysis was to determine if systematic patterns in farm performance expressed by cane yield and CCS persisted over time. There was no spatial relationship between cane yield and CCS. However, the analysis revealed that the relationship between farms was remarkably stable from one year to the next for both attributes and there was some spatial aggregation of farm performance in parts of the mill area. This finding is important, since temporally consistent spatial variation may be exploited to improve regional production. Alternatively, the putative causes of the spatial variation may be explored to enhance the understanding of sugarcane production in the wet tropics of Australia.

Spatial and temporal stability of soil microbial properties in the Jena Experiment (Germany) from 2003-2014

The study was carried out on the main plots of a large grassland biodiversity experiment (the Jena Experiment). In the main experiment, 82 grassland plots of 20 x 20 m were established from a pool of 60 species belonging to four functional groups (grasses, legumes, tall and small herbs). In May 2002, varying numbers of plant species from this species pool were sown into the plots to create a gradient of plant species richness (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 60 species) and functional richness (1, 2, 3, 4 functional groups). Plots were maintained by bi-annual weeding and mowing. We tracked soil microbial basal respiration (BR; µlO2/g dry soil/h) and biomass carbon (Cmic; µgC/g dry soil) over a time period of 12 years (2003-2014) and examined the role of plant diversity and plant functional group composition for the spatial and temporal stability (calculated as mean/SD) of soil microbial properties (basal respiration and biomass) in bulk-soil. Our results highlight the importance of plant functional group composition for the spatial and temporal stability of soil microbial properties, and hence for microbially-driven ecosystem processes, such as decomposition and element cycling, in temperate semi-natural grassland.

Evaluation of DUALEM, OptRx and Grassmaster II sensors for monitoring the spatial variability and the temporal stability of a Mediterranean pasture

Site-specific management (SSM) is a form of precision agriculture whereby decisions on resource application and agronomic practices are improved to better match soil and crop requirements as they vary in the field. SSM enables the identification of regions (homogeneous management zones) within the area delimited by field boundaries. These subfield regions constitute areas that have similar permanent characteristics. Traditional soil and pasture sampling and the necessary laboratory analysis are time-consuming, labour-intensive and cost prohibitive, not viable from a SSM perspective because it needs a large number of soil and pasture samples in order to achieve a good representation of soil properties, nutrient levels and pasture quality and productivity. The main objective of this work was to evaluate technologies which have potential for monitoring aspects related to spatial and temporal variability of soil nutrients and pasture green and dry matter yield (respectively, GM and DM, in kg/ha) and support to decision making for the farmer. Three types of sensors were evaluated in a 7ha pasture experimental field: an electromagnetic induction sensor (“DUALEM 1S”, which measures the soil apparent electrical conductivity, ECa), an active optical sensor ("OptRx®", which measures the NDVI, “Normalized Difference Vegetation Index”) and a capacitance probe ("GrassMaster II" which estimates plant mass). The results indicate the possibility of using a soil electrical conductivity probe as, probably, the best tool for monitoring not only some of the characteristics of the soil, but also those of the pasture, which could represent an important help in simplifying the process of sampling and support SSM decision making, in precision agriculture projects. On the other hand, the significant and very strong correlations obtained between capacitance and NDVI and between any of these parameters and the pasture productivity shows the potential of these tools for monitoring the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of the vegetative growth of biodiverse pasture, for identifying different plant species and variability in pasture yield in Alentejo dry-land farming systems. These results are relevant for the selection of an adequate sensing system for a particular application and open new perspectives for other works that would allow the testing, calibration and validation of the sensors in a wider range of pasture production conditions, namely the extraordinary diversity of botanical species that are characteristic of the Mediterranean region at the different periods of the year.

Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

An investigation of the pre-irradiation temporal stability of PAGAT gel dosimeter

In this work we examine two aspects of the PAGAT gel dosimeter. The first aspect studied is determination of a stable range of concentrations of the anti-oxidant Tetrakis Hydroxy Phosphonium Chloride (THPC). Once the desired THPC concentration is determined, we proceed to an investigation into the effect of pre-irradiation storage time and how this affects the dose response of the gel.

Spatial-temporal epidemiological analyses of two sympatric, co-endemic alphaviral diseases in Queensland, Australia

Background: The two most reported mosquito-borne diseases in Queensland, a northern state of Australia, are Ross River virus (RRV) disease and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease. Both diseases are endemic in Queensland and have similar clinical symptoms and comparable transmission cycles involving a complex inter-relationship between human hosts, various mosquito vectors, and a range of nonhuman vertebrate hosts, including marsupial mammals that are unique to the Australasian region. Although these viruses are thought to share similar vectors and vertebrate hosts, RRV is four times more prevalent than BFV in Queensland. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of BFV and RRV human disease notification data collected from 1995 to 2007 in Queensland to ascertain whether there were differences in the incidence patterns of RRV and BFV disease. In particular, we compared the temporal incidence and spatial distribution of both diseases and considered the relationship between their disease dynamics. We also investigated whether a peak in BFV incidence during spring was indicative of the following RRV and BFV transmission season incidence levels. Results: Although there were large differences in the notification rates of the two diseases, they had similar annual temporal patterns, but there were regional variations between the length and magnitude of the transmission seasons. During periods of increased disease activity, however, there was no association between the dynamics of the two diseases. Conclusions: The results from this study suggest that while RRV and BFV share similar mosquito vectors, there are significant differences in the ecology of these viruses that result in different epidemic patterns of disease incidence. Further investigation is required into the ecology of each virus to determine which factors are important in promoting RRV and BFV disease outbreaks.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

Electro-optical properties and temporal stability of the guest-host DCNP/PEK-c polymer thin film

The polyetherketone (PEK-c) guest-host system thin films in which the range of the weight percent of 3-(1,1-dicyanothenyl)-1-phenyl-4, 5- dihydro-1H-pryazole (DCNP) is from 20% to 50% were prepared. The predicted high value of electro-optical (EO) coefficient gamma(33) = 48.8 pm/V by using two-level model was obtained when the weight percent of DCNP in the polymer system is 40%, whereas EO coefficients are attenuated at higher chromophore loading then 40%. The temporal stability of the EO activity of the guest-host polymer was evaluated by probing the decay of the orientational order of the chromophores in the polymer system.

Spatial-temporal characteristics of siping urban expansion based on remote sensing and GIS

Based on the RS and GIS methods, Siping city is selected as a study case with four remote sensing images in 25 years. Indices of urban morphology such as fractal dimension and compactness are employed to research the characteristics of urban expansion. Through digital processing and interpreting of the images, the process and characteristics of urban expansion are analysed using urban area change, fractal dimension and compactness. The results showed that there are three terms in this period. It expended fastest in the period of 1979~1991, and in the period of 1992~2001, the emphases on urban redevelopment made it expended slower. And this is in agreement with the Siping Statistical Yearbook. This indicates that the united of metrics of urban morphology and statistical data can be used to satisfactorily describe the process and characteristics of urban expansion. © 2008 IEEE.

Temporal Stability of Molecular Diversity Measures in Natural Populations of Drosophila pseudoobscura and Drosophila persimilis

Many molecular ecological and evolutionary studies sample wild populations at a single point in time, failing to consider that data they collect represents genetic variation from a potentially unrepresentative snapshot in time. Variation across time in genetic parameters may occur quickly in species that produce multiple generations of offspring per year. However, many studies of rapid contemporary microevolution examine phenotypic trait divergence as opposed to molecular evolutionary divergence. Here, we compare genetic diversity in wild caught populations of Drosophila persimilis and D. pseudoobscura collected 16 years apart at the same time of year and same site at four X-linked and two mitochondrial loci to assess genetic stability. We found no major changes in nucleotide diversity in either species, but we observed a drastic shift in Tajima’s D between D. pseudoobscura timepoints at one locus associated with the increased abundance of a set of related haplotypes. Our data also suggests that D. persimilis may have recently accelerated its demographic expansion. While the changes we observed were modest, this study reinforces the importance of considering potential temporal variation in genetic parameters within single populations over short evolutionary timescales.

Kinship, parentage and temporal stability in nursery colonies of Leisler’s bat (Nyctalus leisleri)

Levels of genetic relatedness within bat colonies are often unknown, and consequently the reasons for group formation and social organization are unclear. The Leisler's bat (Nyctalus leisleri), like most temperate bat species, forms nursery colonies in summer. We used microsatellite markers to examine identity and to attempt to estimate relatedness among females within a nursery colony, over 2 consecutive years, to ascertain whether females show kinship and natal philopatry, testing the hypothesis that this is the basis of colony formation. Parentage and relatedness of young born within a colony was assessed to investigate mating patterns via male reproductive skew and whether males achieve mating success within their natal colony. While there was evidence for female philopatry, levels of genetic relatedness within colonies were low. This suggests that kinship is not a major determinant in group formation, as roosts also comprise a large number of distant relatives or non-kin. Roost switching and gene flow are likely to be high. Both sexes reproduced in their first year, whereas males appear to be the more dispersive sex. We argue that the physical environment as well as information sharing provided by communal roosting are likely to be important factors for the formation of these large natal colonies in N. leisleri and possibly other lineages of bats. © 2012 The Author.