Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Climate sensitivity of Mediterranean pine growth reveals distinct east-west dipole

The European Mediterranean region is governed by a characteristic climate of summer drought that is likely to increase in duration and intensity under predicted climate change. However, large-scale network analyses investigating spatial aspects of pre-instrumental drought variability for this biogeographic zone are still scarce. In this study we introduce 54 mid- to high-elevation tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies comprising 2186 individual series from pine trees (Pinus spp.). This compilation spans a 4000-km east–west transect from Spain to Turkey, and was subjected to quality control and standardization prior to the development of site chronologies. A principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify spatial growth patterns during the network's common period 1862–1976, and new composite TRW chronologies were developed and investigated. The PCA reveals a common variance of 19.7% over the 54 Mediterranean pine chronologies. More interestingly, a dipole pattern in growth variability is found between the western (15% explained variance) and eastern (9.6%) sites, persisting back to 1330 AD. Pine growth on the Iberian Peninsula and Italy favours warm early growing seasons, but summer drought is most critical for ring width formation in the eastern Mediterranean region. Synoptic climate dynamics that have been in operation for the last seven centuries have been identified as the driving mechanism of a distinct east–west dipole in the growth variability of Mediterranean pines.

Creative, culture tourism and place-making : Istanbul and London film industries

During the last decade many cities have sought to promote creativity by encouraging creative industries as drivers for economic and spatial growth. Among the creative industries, film industry play an important role in establishing high level of success in economic and spatial development of cities by fostering endogenous creativeness, attracting exogenous talent, and contributing to the formation of places that creative cities require. The paper aims to scrutinize the role of creative industries in general and the film industry in particular for place making, spatial development, tourism, and the formation of creative cities, their clustering and locational decisions. This paper investigates the positive effects of the film industry on tourism such as incubating creativity potential, increasing place recognition through locations of movies filmed and film festivals hosted, attracting visitors and establishing interaction among visitors, places and their cultures. This paper reveals the preliminary findings of two case studies from Beyoglu, Istanbul and Soho, London, examines the relation between creativity, tourism, culture and the film industry, and discusses their effects on place-making and tourism.

Extending temporal simulations

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of spatially growing turbulent shear layers may be performed as temporal simulations by solving the governing equations with some additional terms while imposing streamwise periodicity. These terms are functions of the means whose spatial growth is calculated easily and accurately from statistics of the temporal DNS. Equations for such simulations are derived.

Stability of spatially developing boundary layers in pressure gradients

A new formulation of the stability of boundary-layer flows in pressure gradients is presented, taking into account the spatial development of the flow and utilizing a special coordinate transformation. The formulation assumes that disturbance wavelength and eigenfunction vary downstream no more rapidly than the boundary-layer thickness, and includes all terms nominally of order R(-1) in the boundary-layer Reynolds number R. In Blasius flow, the present approach is consistent with that of Bertolotti et al. (1992) to O(R(-1)) but simpler (i.e. has fewer terms), and may best be seen as providing a parametric differential equation which can be solved without having to march in space. The computed neutral boundaries depend strongly on distance from the surface, but the one corresponding to the inner maximum of the streamwise velocity perturbation happens to be close to the parallel flow (Orr-Sommerfeld) boundary. For this quantity, solutions for the Falkner-Skan flows show the effects of spatial growth to be striking only in the presence of strong adverse pressure gradients. As a rational analysis to O(R(-1)) demands inclusion of higher-order corrections on the mean flow, an illustrative calculation of one such correction, due to the displacement effect of the boundary layer, is made, and shown to have a significant destabilizing influence on the stability boundary in strong adverse pressure gradients. The effect of non-parallelism on the growth of relatively high frequencies can be significant at low Reynolds numbers, but is marginal in other cases. As an extension of the present approach, a method of dealing with non-similar flows is also presented and illustrated. However, inherent in the transformation underlying the present approach is a lower-order non-parallel theory, which is obtained by dropping all terms of nominal order R(-1) except those required for obtaining the lowest-order solution in the critical and wall layers. It is shown that a reduced Orr-Sommerfeld equation (in transformed coordinates) already contains the major effects of non-parallelism.

Instruments for analysing urban conflicts in the Global South: The case of urban transformation processes in Dakar

Physical and social transformation processes that take place in urban contexts with strong spatial growth and hardly any economic development frequently have significant adverse impacts for the affected people, which tend to be made invisible. This paper presents an analytical framework to explore different ways to approach urban transformation processes (supply side), their impacts on the set of needs of the community (demand side) and their consequences on the urban environment as a whole (context). The proposed method has been used to assess three actions related to the physical and social transformation of the largest self-made settlement in the city of Dakar, Senegal, during the 2005–2012 period. Research findings show how exogenous interests are privileged over the common good when the affected citizens are not effectively involved in decision-making processes.

A review of models of spatial innovation infrastructures in support of high growth SMEs

This Paper first provides a review and analysis of the recent trends on innovation infrastructures developed in industrialised countries to promote innovation and competitiveness for high growth SMEs. It specifically aims to examine various spatial models developed to support provision of innovation infrastructure for high growth sector.

Characteristics of spatial variation, size distribution, formation and growth of particles in urban environments

This thesis is the first comprehensive study of important parameters relating to aerosols' impact on climate and human health, namely spatial variation, particle size distribution and new particle formation. We determined the importance of spatial variation of particle number concentration in microscale environments, developed a method for particle size parameterisation and provided knowledge about the chemistry of new particle formation. This is a significant contribution to our understanding of processes behind the transformation and dynamics of urban aerosols. This PhD project included extensive measurements of air quality parameters using state of the art instrumentation at each of the 25 sites within the Brisbane metropolitan area and advanced statistical analysis.

Urban Growth Analysis Using Spatial and Temporal Data

Urban growth identification, quantification, knowledge of rate and the trends of growth would help in regional planning for better infrastructure provision in environmentally sound way. This requires analysis of spatial and temporal data, which help in quantifying the trends of growth on spatial scale. Emerging technologies such as Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) along with Global Positioning System (GPS) help in this regard. Remote sensing aids in the collection of temporal data and GIS helps in spatial analysis. This paper focuses on the analysis of urban growth pattern in the form of either radial or linear sprawl along the Bangalore - Mysore highway. Various GIS base layers such as builtup areas along the highway, road network, village boundary etc. were generated using collateral data such as the Survey of India toposheet, etc. Further, this analysis was complemented with the computation of Shannon's entropy, which helped in identifying prevalent sprawl zone, rate of growth and in delineating potential sprawl locations. The computation Shannon's entropy helped in delineating regions with dispersed and compact growth. This study reveals that the Bangalore North and South taluks contributed mainly to the sprawl with 559% increase in built-up area over a period of 28 years and high degree of dispersion. The Mysore and Srirangapatna region showed 128% change in built-up area and a high potential for sprawl with slightly high dispersion. The degree of sprawl was found to be directly proportional to the distances from the cities.

Red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) demographic structure in the northern Gulf of Mexico based on spatial patterns in growth rates and morphometrics

Red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) in the United States waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) has been considered a single unit stock since management of the species began in 1991. The validity of this assumption is essential to management decisions because measures of growth can differ for nonmixing populations. We examined growth rates, size-at-age, and length and weight information of red snapper collected from the recreational harvests of Alabama (n=2010), Louisiana (n=1905), and Texas (n =1277) from 1999 to 2001. Ages were obtained from 5035 otolith sections and ranged from one to 45 years. Fork length, total weight, and age-frequency distributions differed significantly among all states; Texas, however, had a much higher proportion of smaller, younger fish. All red snapper showed rapid growth until about age 10 years, after which growth slowed considerably. Von Bertalanffy growth models of both mean fork length and mean total weight-at-age predicted significantly smaller fish at age from Texas, whereas no differences were found between Alabama and Louisiana models. Texas red snapper were also shown to differ significantly from both Alabama and Louisiana red snapper in regressions of mean weight at age. Demographic variation in growth rates may indicate the existence of separate management units of red snapper in the GOM. Our data indicate that the red snapper inhabiting the waters off Texas are reaching smaller maximum sizes at a faster rate and have a consistently smaller total weight at age than those collected from Louisiana and Alabama waters. Whether these differences are environmentally induced or are the result of genetic divergence remains to be determined, but they should be considered for future management regulations.

Small-scale spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality of fish larvae in the subtropical northcentral Gulf of Mexico: implications for assessing recruitment success

Extensive plankton collections were taken during seven September cruises (1990–93) along the inner continental shelf of the northcentral Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Despite the high productivity and availability of food during these cruises, significant small-scale spatial variability was found in larval growth rates for both Atlantic bumper (Chloroscombrus chrysurus, Carangidae) and vermilion snapper (Rhomboplites aurorubens, Lutjanidae). The observed variability in larval growth rates was not correlated with changes in water temperature or associated with conspicuous hydrographic features and suggested the existence of less-recognizable regions where conditions for growth vary. Cruise estimates of mortality coefficients (Z) for larval Atlantic bumper (n=32,241 larvae from six cruises) and vermilion snapper (n= 2581 larvae from four cruises) ranged from 0.20 to 0.37 and 0.19 to 0.29, respectively. Even in a subtropical climate like the GOM, where larval-stage durations may be as short as two weeks, observed variability in growth rates, particularly when combined with small changes in mortality rates, can cause order-of-magnitude differences in cumulative larval survival. To what extent the observed differences in growth rates at small spatial scales are fine-scale “noise” that ultimately is smoothed by larger-scale processes is not known. Future research is needed to further characterize the small-scale variability in growth rates of larvae, particularly with regard to microzooplankton patchiness and the temporal and spatial pattern of potential predators. Small-scale spatial variability in larval growth rates may in fact be the norm, and understanding the implications of this subtle mosaic may help us to better evaluate our ability to partition the causes of recruitment variability.

Temporal and spatial dynamics of spawning, settlement, and growth of gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) from the West Florida shelf as determined from otolith microstructures

The goal of our study was to understand the spatial and temporal variation in spawning and settlement of gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the West Florida shelf (WFS). Juvenile gray snapper were collected over two consecutive years from seagrass meadows with a benthic scrape and otter trawl. Spawning, settlement, and growth patterns were compared across three sampling regions (Panhandle, Big bend, and Southwest) by using otolith microstructure. Histology of adult gonads was also used for an independent estimate of spawning time. Daily growth increments were visible in the lapilli of snapper 11–150 mm standard length; ages ranged from 38 to 229 days and estimated average planktonic larval duration was 25 days. Estimated growth rates ranged from 0.60 to 1.02 mm/d and did not differ among the three sampling regions, but did differ across sampling years. Back-calculated fertilization dates from otoliths indicated that juveniles in the Panhandle and Big Bend were mainly summer spawned fish, whereas Southwest juveniles had winter and summer fertilization dates. Settlement occurred during summer both years and in the winter of 1997 for the southern portion of the WFS. Moon phase did not appear to be strongly correlated with fertilization or settlement. Histological samples of gonads from adults collected near the juvenile sampling areas indicated a summer spawning period.