The AIDS epidemic in the Amazon region: a spatial case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze spatial changes in the risk of AIDS and the relationship between AIDS incidence and socioeconomic variables in the state of Rondonia, Amazon region. METHODS A spatial, population case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil, based on 1,780 cases reported to the Epidemiological Surveillance System and controls based on demographic data from 1987 to 2006. The cases were grouped into five consecutive four-year periods. A generalized additive model was adjusted to the data; the dependent variable was the status of the individuals (case or control), and the independent variables were a bi-dimensional spline of the geographic coordinates and some municipality-level socioeconomic variables. The observed values of the Moran’s I test were compared to a reference distribution of values generated under conditions of spatial randomness. RESULTS AIDS risk shows a marked spatial and temporal pattern. The disease incidence is related to socioeconomic variables at the municipal level in Rondônia, such as urbanization and human capital. The highest incidence rates of AIDS are in municipalities along the BR-364 highway and calculations of the Moran’s I test show positive spatial correlation associated with proximity of the municipality to the highway in the third and fourth periods (p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Incidence of the disease is higher in municipalities of greater economic wealth and urbanization, and in those municipalities bisected by Rondônia’s main roads. The rapid development associated with the opening up of once remote regions may be accompanied by an increase in these risks to health.

Changes in the relationship between society and nature in the Mezzo-region of Southeastern Pará, Amazon, Brazil

With this work, the authors wish to show some of the alterations in the pattern of relations between society and nature, which have taken place throughout the 20th century in the Parauapebas and Itacaiúnas river valleys, as well as in parts of the Tocantins River valley, in southeastern Pará. This is accomplished through descriptions based on Coudreau's first-hand accounts (1889), transcribed in "Voyage a Itaboca et a L'Itacayuna", published in 1897, which depicts an area almost totally covered by forest. This is followed by a counter view made possible through the LandSat 5 satellite sensors, with images of those valleys in 2001, showing the consequences of society transformations and pressure on natural resources, and above all the dramatic decrease in the size of the forest, reduced to 52 percent of the 63,000 square kilometers analyzed herein.

The Accessibility City. When Transport Infrastructure Matters in Urban Spatial Structure

Suburbanization is changing the urban spatial structure and less monocentric metropolitan regions are becoming the new urban reality. Focused only on centers, most works have studied these spatial changes neglecting the role of transport infrastructure and its related location model, the “accessibility city”, in which employment and population concentrate in low-density settlements and close to transport infrastructure. For the case of Barcelona, we consider this location model and study the population spatial structure between 1991 and 2006. The results reveal a mix between polycentricity and the accessibility city, with movements away from the main centers, but close to the transport infrastructure.

Accurate memory for object location by individuals with intellectual disability: Absolute spatial tagging instead of configural processing?

Using head-mounted eye tracker material, we assessed spatial recognition abilities (e.g., reaction to object permutation, removal or replacement with a new object) in participants with intellectual disabilities. The "Intellectual Disabilities (ID)" group (n=40) obtained a score totalling a 93.7% success rate, whereas the "Normal Control" group (n=40) scored 55.6% and took longer to fix their attention on the displaced object. The participants with an intellectual disability thus had a more accurate perception of spatial changes than controls. Interestingly, the ID participants were more reactive to object displacement than to removal of the object. In the specific test of novelty detection, however, the scores were similar, the two groups approaching 100% detection. Analysis of the strategies expressed by the ID group revealed that they engaged in more systematic object checking and were more sensitive than the control group to changes in the structure of the environment. Indeed, during the familiarisation phase, the "ID" group explored the collection of objects more slowly, and fixed their gaze for a longer time upon a significantly lower number of fixation points during visual sweeping.

Spatial covariation of Azotobacter abundance and soil properties: A case study using the wavelet transform

The soil microflora is very heterogeneous in its spatial distribution. The origins of this heterogeneity and its significance for soil function are not well understood. A problem for understanding spatial variation better is the assumption of statistical stationarity that is made in most of the statistical methods used to assess it. These assumptions are made explicit in geostatistical methods that have been increasingly used by soil biologists in recent years. Geostatistical methods are powerful, particularly for local prediction, but they require the assumption that the variability of a property of interest is spatially uniform, which is not always plausible given what is known about the complexity of the soil microflora and the soil environment. We have used the wavelet transform, a relatively new innovation in mathematical analysis, to investigate the spatial variation of abundance of Azotobacter in the soil of a typical agricultural landscape. The wavelet transform entails no assumptions of stationarity and is well suited to the analysis of variables that show intermittent or transient features at different spatial scales. In this study, we computed cross-variograms of Azotobacter abundance with the pH, water content and loss on ignition of the soil. These revealed scale-dependent covariation in all cases. The wavelet transform also showed that the correlation of Azotobacter abundance with all three soil properties depended on spatial scale, the correlation generally increased with spatial scale and was only significantly different from zero at some scales. However, the wavelet analysis also allowed us to show how the correlation changed across the landscape. For example, at one scale Azotobacter abundance was strongly correlated with pH in part of the transect, and not with soil water content, but this was reversed elsewhere on the transect. The results show how scale-dependent variation of potentially limiting environmental factors can induce a complex spatial pattern of abundance in a soil organism. The geostatistical methods that we used here make assumptions that are not consistent with the spatial changes in the covariation of these properties that our wavelet analysis has shown. This suggests that the wavelet transform is a powerful tool for future investigation of the spatial structure and function of soil biota. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The AIDS epidemic in the Amazon region: a spatial case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil

OBJETIVO Analisar mudanças espaciais no risco de Aids e a relação entre incidência da doença e variáveis socioeconômicas. MÉTODOS Estudo caso-controle espacial, de base populacional, realizado em Rondônia, Brasil, com 1.780 casos notificados pelo Sistema de Vigilância Epidemiológica e os controles a partir de dados demográficos de 1987 a 2006. Os casos foram agrupados em cinco períodos de cinco anos consecutivos. Um modelo aditivo generalizado foi ajustado aos dados. O status dos indivíduos (caso ou controle) foi considerado como a variável dependente e independente: um alisamento ( spline ) bidimensional das coordenadas geográficas e variáveis socioeconômicas municipais. Os valores observados para o teste Moran I foram comparados com a distribuição de referência dos valores obtidos em condições de aleatoriedade espacial. RESULTADOS O risco de Aids apresentou padrão espacial e temporal marcado. A incidência associou-se a indicadores socioeconômicos municipais, como urbanização e capital humano. As maiores taxas de incidência de Aids ocorreram em municípios ao longo da rodovia BR-364; os resultados do teste Moran I mostram correlação espacial positiva associada à contiguidade dos municípios com a rodovia, no terceiro e quarto períodos (p = 0,05). CONCLUSÕES A incidência da doença foi maior em municípios de maior riqueza econômica e urbanização e naqueles cortados pelas estradas principais de Rondônia. O rápido desenvolvimento associado à ocupação de regiões remotas pode ser acompanhado por aumento de riscos à saúde.

Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959–1980 and 1989–2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.

Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959–1980 and 1989–2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.

Adaptability, Transformation and Complex Changes in Namibia and Tanzania: Resilience and Innovation System Development in Local Communities

This thesis is a research about the recent complex spatial changes in Namibia and Tanzania and local communities’ capacity to cope with, adapt to and transform the unpredictability engaged to these processes. I scrutinise the concept of resilience and its potential application to explaining the development of local communities in Southern Africa when facing various social, economic and environmental changes. My research is based on three distinct but overlapping research questions: what are the main spatial changes and their impact on the study areas in Namibia and Tanzania? What are the adaptation, transformation and resilience processes of the studied local communities in Namibia and Tanzania? How are innovation systems developed, and what is their impact on the resilience of the studied local communities in Namibia and Tanzania? I use four ethnographic case studies concerning environmental change, global tourism and innovation system development in Namibia and Tanzania, as well as mixed-methodological approaches, to study these issues. The results of my empirical investigation demonstrate that the spatial changes in the localities within Namibia and Tanzania are unique, loose assemblages, a result of the complex, multisided, relational and evolutional development of human and non-human elements that do not necessarily have linear causalities. Several changes co-exist and are interconnected though uncertain and unstructured and, together with the multiple stressors related to poverty, have made communities more vulnerable to different changes. The communities’ adaptation and transformation measures have been mostly reactive, based on contingency and post hoc learning. Despite various anticipation techniques, coping measures, adaptive learning and self-organisation processes occurring in the localities, the local communities are constrained by their uneven power relationships within the larger assemblages. Thus, communities’ own opportunities to increase their resilience are limited without changing the relations in these multiform entities. Therefore, larger cooperation models are needed, like an innovation system, based on the interactions of different actors to foster cooperation, which require collaboration among and input from a diverse set of stakeholders to combine different sources of knowledge, innovation and learning. Accordingly, both Namibia and Tanzania are developing an innovation system as their key policy to foster transformation towards knowledge-based societies. Finally, the development of an innovation system needs novel bottom-up approaches to increase the resilience of local communities and embed it into local communities. Therefore, innovation policies in Namibia have emphasised the role of indigenous knowledge, and Tanzania has established the Living Lab network.

Immunological mechanisms underlying infectious and chronic lung diseases

Le système respiratoire permet l'échange de gaz entre un organisme et son environnement. Pour fonctionner efficacement, il doit lutter contre les infections tout en maintenant une tolérance aux particules inoffensives. Les cytokines sont des petites protéines qui permettent la communication entre les différentes cellules et jouent un rôle important dans la régulation de l'homéostasie et de l'immunité des surfaces pulmonaires. Une production altérée des cytokines sous-tend beaucoup de maladies du système pulmonaire. Ainsi, la compréhension de la biologie fondamentale des cytokines pourrait contribuer à la mise au point de nouveaux traitements. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, nous avons étudié le rôle de deux cytokines, le TSLP (Thymic stromal lymphopoietin) et l'IL-17 (Interleukin 17) dans les réponses immunitaires bénéfiques et nuisibles en utilisant des modèles précliniques de souris des maladies pulmonaires. L'asthme est une maladie qui est caractérisée par la bronchoconstriction réversible, l'inflammation des voies respiratoires inférieures, l'hyperréactivité bronchique et le remodelage tissulaire. Le type d'inflammation affectant les voies respiratoires et la présence ou non d'allergie permettent d'établir les différents types d'asthme. La TSLP est une cytokine qui est principalement exprimée à des niveaux élevés dans les poumons de patients souffrant d'asthme allergique. En conséquence, la majeure partie de la recherche sur la TSLP a mis l'accent sur le rôle joué par celle- ci dans les réponses négatives conduisant au développement de l'asthme allergique. Dans cette thèse, nous montrons que la TSLP joue aussi un rôle bénéfique dans les réponses immunitaires pulmonaires. Nous avons découvert que la TSLP atténue la grippe en augmentant les réponses des lymphocytes T cytotoxiques contre le virus. Nous avons également étudié la fonction de la TSLP dans l'asthme non allergique. Contrairement à l'asthme allergique, nous avons constaté que la TSLP diminue les réponses inflammatoires dans l'asthme non allergique en réglant la production de l'IL-17, une cytokine qui favorise la maladie. Ainsi, nous démontrons les fonctions pleiotropes de la TSLP dans des contextes spécifiques de la maladie. Nos résultats ont des implications importantes pour le développement de thérapies ciblant la TSLP dans l'asthme. Dans la deuxième partie de la thèse, nous avons étudié les mécanismes pathogéniques qui sous-tendent le développement de la broncho-pneumopathie chronique obstructive (BPCO). La BPCO est une maladie chronique le plus largement associée aux fumeurs. Elle est caractérisée par une limitation progressive et irréversible du débit d'air et la destruction de la structure des poumons. L'augmentation globale de l'incidence de la maladie encourage grandement la compréhension des mécanismes pathogéniques et l'identification de nouvelles cibles thérapeutiques. Nous avons découvert que les micro-organismes trouvés dans les voies respiratoires aggravent la maladie en augmentant la production de l'IL-17. L'IL-17 est une cytokine inflammatoire qui est impliquée dans plusieurs maladies pulmonaires chroniques, dont la BPCO. Dans notre modèle animal de la maladie, nous avons neutralisé 1ÌL-17A en utilisant un anticorps spécifique et observé une reprise de la fonction pulmonaire. Dans cette étude, nous avons identifié 2 axes potentiels pour l'intervention thérapeutique contre la BPCO. Cibler les bactéries dans les voies respiratoires soit par l'utilisation d'antibiotiques ou l'utilisation de thérapies à base immunitaire qui antagonisent l'activité spécifiques de l'IL-17. Dans l'avenir, notre laboratoire va collaborer avec des cliniciens pour acquérir des échantillons humains et tester la pertinence de nos résultats dans la maladie humaine. -- L'interaction avec l'environnement extérieur est vitale pour le fonctionnement du système respiratoire. Par conséquent, ce dernier a adopté une multitude de réseaux effecteurs et régulateurs qui permettent de distinguer les particules inhalées comme «dangereuses» ou «inoffensives» et de réagir en conséquence. L'équilibre entre ces réseaux est essentielle pour lutter contre le «danger» déclenché par une infection ou des dommages, et finalement pour le retour à l'homéostasie. Le milieu de cytokine local contribue de manière significative à la mise au point de ces réponses. Ainsi, la caractérisation du rôle des cytokines dans l'état d'équilibre et la maladie a des implications claires pour les interventions thérapeutiques dans les maladies respiratoires aiguës et chroniques. Cette thèse a porté sur le rôle des cytokines, la lymphopoïétine stromale thymique (TSLP) et TIL-17A dans l'élaboration de réponses immunitaires pulmonaires. La TSLP est principalement produite par les cellules épithéliales et peut cibler une myriade de cellules immunitaires. Bien qu'elle ait été montrée être un puissant inducteur des réponses de type Th2, son rôle dans d'autres contextes inflammatoires est relativement inexploré. Dans le premier projet de cette thèse, nous avons découvert une nouvelle fonction de la TSLP dans l'immunité antivirale contre la grippe, une infection virale. Nous avons constaté que la TSLP a réglementé la réponse neutrophile au début de l'infection, en amplifiant l'immunité adaptative spécifique du virus. Mécaniquement, la TSLP a augmenté l'expression de l'IL-15 et du CD70 sur les cellules dendritiques recrutées dans les poumons suite à l'infection et a renforcé leur capacité de stimuler localement les lymphocytes T CD8+ spécifiques du virus. En outre, nous avons étudié la TSLP dans le cadre de divers phénotypes de l'asthme et également démontré l'impact pléiotropique qu'elle a sur les réponses immunitaires pulmonaires. En accord avec les rapports précédents, nous avons constaté que la TSLP a exacerbé l'inflammation atopique médiée par le Th2. En revanche la TSLP a réduit les réponses de l'IL-17A et l'inflammation neutrophile subséquente dans le modèle non atopique, ainsi que l'exacerbation du modèle atopique provoqué par une infection virale. Nos résultats démontrent une dichotomie dans le rôle de la TSLP dans la pathogenèse de l'asthme et soulignent la nécessité d'envisager plusieurs phénotypes d'asthme pour une évaluation approfondie de son potentiel thérapeutique dans cette maladie. Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse, nous avons caractérisé les mécanismes pathogènes qui sous-tendent la broncho-pneumopathie chronique obstructive (BPCO). La BPCO est une maladie hétérogène définie par une diminution progressive de la fonction pulmonaire. Bien que des déclencheurs environnementaux puissent aggraver la maladie, chez les personnes sensibles une maladie établie peut progresser à travers un cercle inflammatoire auto-entretenu. Nous avons cherché à définir les mécanismes sous-jacents à l'aide d'un modèle murin d'inflammation chronique, qui reproduit les caractéristiques pathologiques de la maladie humaine. Puisqu'ont été associés à la BPCO sévère des changements dans le microbiome des voies respiratoires, nous avons supposé que les signaux dérivés de certains microbes pourraient favoriser des voies inflammatoires chroniques de progression de la maladie. Nous avons observé que, en l'absence d un microbiome, la maladie s'est améliorée tel que démontré par une réduction de l'inflammation des voies respiratoires et une amélioration de la fonction pulmonaire. Cela a été lié spécifiquement à une production réduite d'IL-17A, une cytokine qui a été impliquée dans la maladie humaine. De plus la cinétique de production de 1IL- 17A dépendant du microbiote est corrélé à la sévérité de la maladie. Sur la base de ces données, la neutralisation de l'IL-17A a également eu un effet bénéfique sur l'évolution de la maladie. Le rôle significatif de 1TL-17A dans l'aggravation de la maladie a été couplé à sa capacité à engager un dialogue entre les voies inflammatoires innées et adaptatives. Il a influencé le recrutement et le phénotype des neutrophiles et des macrophages, ce qui a eu un impact direct et indirect sur la formation et la fonction des tissus lymphoïdes tertiaires associée à des stades sévères de la maladie. -- The interaction with the external environment is vital for the functioning of the respiratory system. Consequently, it has adopted a multitude of effector and regulatory networks that enable it to distinguish inhaled particles as 'dangerous' or 'innocuous' and respond accordingly. The balance between these networks is crucial to counteract the 'danger' triggered by infection or damage, and ultimately return to homeostasis. The local cytokine milieu contributes significantly to the fine- tuning of these responses. Thus, characterizing the role of cytokines in steady state and disease has clear implications for therapeutic interventions in acute and chronic respiratory disorders. This thesis focused on the role of the cytokines, thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) and IL-17A in shaping pulmonary immune responses. TSLP is primarily produced by barrier epithelial cells and can target a myriad of immune cells. Although it has been shown to be potent inducer of Th2 type responses, its role in other inflammatory settings is relatively unexplored. In the first project of this thesis, we discovered a novel function of TSLP in antiviral immunity to Influenza A infection. We found that while TSLP regulated the early neutrophilic response to infection, it amplified virus specific adaptive immunity. Mechanistically, TSLP enhanced the expression of IL-15 and CD70 on the lung recruited inflammatory dendritic cells and strengthened their ability to stimulate virus specific CD8+ T cell responses locally. In addition we investigated TSLP in the context of diverse asthma phenotypes and further demonstrated the pleiotropic impact it has on pulmonary immune responses. In concurrence with previous reports we found that TSLP exacerbated Th2 mediated atopic inflammation. In contrast TSLP curtailed IL-17A responses and subsequent neutrophilic inflammation in the non-atopic model as well as virus induced exacerbation of the atopic model. Our findings demonstrate a dichotomy in the role of TSLP in asthma pathogenesis and emphasize the need to consider multiple asthma phenotypes for a thorough evaluation of its therapeutic potential in this disease. In the next part of this thesis we characterized the pathogenic mechanisms underlying chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. COPD is a heterogeneous disease defined by a progressive decline in lung function. Although environmental triggers exacerbate the disease, in susceptible individuals the established disease can progress through a self-sustained inflammatory circle. We sought to delineate the underlying mechanisms by using a murine model of chronic inflammation, which reproduced key pathological features of the human disease. As changes in the airway microbiome have been linked to severe COPD, we speculated that microbial derived signals could facilitate the establishment of chronic inflammatory pathways that favour disease progression. We found that the absence of a microbiota ameliorated disease, exhibited by a reduction in airway inflammation and an improvement in lung function. This was linked specifically to an impaired production of IL-17A, a cytokine that has been implicated in human disease. Moreover the kinetics of microbiota-dependent IL-17A production correlated with the disease severity. Based on these data targeted neutralization of IL-17A also had a beneficiai effect on the disease outcome. The prominent role played by IL-I7A in driving the disease was coupled to its ability in engaging and mediating cross talk between pathogenic innate and adaptive immune pathways. It influenced the recruitment and phenotype of neutrophils and macrophages, as well as impacted upon the formation and function of tertiary lymphoid tissue associated with severe disease. Thus, temporal and spatial changes in cytokine production, their cellular targets and interaction with the local milieu determine the balance between immunity and pathology in the lung. Collectively our findings provide novel mechanistic insights in the complex role played by cytokines in orchestrating pulmonary immune responses and have clear implications for human disease.

Forest cover and its change in Unguja Island, Zanzibar

Tropical forests are sources of many ecosystem services, but these forests are vanishing rapidly. The situation is severe in Sub-Saharan Africa and especially in Tanzania. The causes of change are multidimensional and strongly interdependent, and only understanding them comprehensively helps to change the ongoing unsustainable trends of forest decline. Ongoing forest changes, their spatiality and connection to humans and environment can be studied with the methods of Land Change Science. The knowledge produced with these methods helps to make arguments about the actors, actions and causes that are behind the forest decline. In this study of Unguja Island in Zanzibar the focus is in the current forest cover and its changes between 1996 and 2009. The cover and changes are measured with often used remote sensing methods of automated land cover classification and post-classification comparison from medium resolution satellite images. Kernel Density Estimation is used to determine the clusters of change, sub-area –analysis provides information about the differences between regions, while distance and regression analyses connect changes to environmental factors. These analyses do not only explain the happened changes, but also allow building quantitative and spatial future scenarios. Similar study has not been made for Unguja and therefore it provides new information, which is beneficial for the whole society. The results show that 572 km2 of Unguja is still forested, but 0,82–1,19% of these forests are disappearing annually. Besides deforestation also vertical degradation and spatial changes are significant problems. Deforestation is most severe in the communal indigenous forests, but also agroforests are decreasing. Spatially deforestation concentrates to the areas close to the coastline, population and Zanzibar Town. Biophysical factors on the other hand do not seem to influence the ongoing deforestation process. If the current trend continues there should be approximately 485 km2 of forests remaining in 2025. Solutions to these deforestation problems should be looked from sustainable land use management, surveying and protection of the forests in risk areas and spatially targeted self-sustainable tree planting schemes.

Articulación entre los sistemas de transporte y el desarrollo urbano: análisis de los cambios físico-espaciales generados a partir de la implementación del Portal Suba de Transmilenio en Bogotá en el periodo 1998-2010

Desde la inauguración del Portal Suba de TransMilenio, han sido evidentes los cambios físico-espaciales en el sector donde fue implementado, materializándose en nuevos proyectos residenciales de alta densidad, centros comerciales, supermercados de grandes superficies, espacios públicos, y vías locales y principales, en un sector que antes de la aparición del portal se caracterizaba principalmente por ser una zona agro-industrial dedicada al cultivo de flores. No obstante, tales intervenciones parecen estar desarticuladas entre si. Por ejemplo, el centro comercial y el supermercado siguen un patrón de construcción cerrada, sin interacción abierta con el espacio público exterior y sin establecer otro tipo de dinámicas urbanas. Por otra parte, puede decirse que gracias a la implementación del portal, la estructura ecológica principal ha sufrido un deterioro importante siendo observable en la disminución significativa de zonas verdes así como en el descuido de los humedales localizados en esta localidad. Por lo tanto, es importante hacer hincapié en la relación sistemas de transporte – desarrollo urbano en tanto que son agentes transformadores del entorno, generadores de desarrollo y bienestar social, y catalizadores de espacios públicos mejor diseñados y más amables, de ser bien planificados y ejecutados, ya que, caso contrario, podrían acarrear efectos contraproducentes en cuanto a la articulación física de la ciudad, accesibilidad, segregación social y el impacto negativo sobre el medio ambiente.

A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates

The intensity and distribution of daily precipitation is predicted to change under scenarios of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this paper, we analyse the ability of HadCM2, a general circulation model (GCM), and a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), both developed at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, to simulate extreme daily precipitation by reference to observations. A detailed analysis of daily precipitation is made at two UK grid boxes, where probabilities of reaching daily thresholds in the GCM and RCM are compared with observations. We find that the RCM generally overpredicts probabilities of extreme daily precipitation but that, when the GCM and RCM simulated values are scaled to have the same mean as the observations, the RCM captures the upper-tail distribution more realistically. To compare regional changes in daily precipitation in the GHG-forced period 2080-2100 in the GCM and the RCM, we develop two methods. The first considers the fractional changes in probability of local daily precipitation reaching or exceeding a fixed 15 mm threshold in the anomaly climate compared with the control. The second method uses the upper one-percentile of the control at each point as the threshold. Agreement between the models is better in both seasons with the latter method, which we suggest may be more useful when considering larger scale spatial changes. On average, the probability of precipitation exceeding the 1% threshold increases by a factor of 2.5 (GCM and RCM) in winter and by I .7 (GCM) or 1.3 (RCM) in summer.

Modelling the impact of land use change on water quality in agricultural catchments

Export coefficient modelling was used to model the impact of agriculture on nitrogen and phosphorus loading on the surface waters of two contrasting agricultural catchments. The model was originally developed for the Windrush catchment where the highly reactive Jurassic limestone aquifer underlying the catchment is well connected to the surface drainage network, allowing the system to be modelled using uniform export coefficients for each nutrient source in the catchment, regardless of proximity to the surface drainage network. In the Slapton catchment, the hydrological path-ways are dominated by surface and lateral shallow subsurface flow, requiring modification of the export coefficient model to incorporate a distance-decay component in the export coefficients. The modified model was calibrated against observed total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads delivered to Slapton Ley from inflowing streams in its catchment. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to isolate the key controls on nutrient export in the modified model. The model was validated against long-term records of water quality, and was found to be accurate in its predictions and sensitive to both temporal and spatial changes in agricultural practice in the catchment. The model was then used to forecast the potential reduction in nutrient loading on Slapton Ley associated with a range of catchment management strategies. The best practicable environmental option (BPEO) was found to be spatial redistribution of high nutrient export risk sources to areas of the catchment with the greatest intrinsic nutrient retention capacity.

Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850–2100

Global warming is expected to enhance fluxes of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere, causing wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier, with serious implications for water resource management. Defining the wet and dry regions as the upper 30% and lower 70% of the precipitation totals across the tropics (30° S–30° N) each month we combine observations and climate model simulations to understand changes in the wet and dry regions over the period 1850–2100. Observed decreases in precipitation over dry tropical land (1950–2010) are also simulated by coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models (−0.3%/decade) with trends projected to continue into the 21st century. Discrepancies between observations and simulations over wet land regions since 1950 exist, relating to decadal fluctuations in El Niño southern oscillation, the timing of which is not represented by the coupled simulations. When atmosphere-only simulations are instead driven by observed sea surface temperature they are able to adequately represent this variability over land. Global distributions of precipitation trends are dominated by spatial changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the tendency for already wet regions to become wetter (precipitation increases with warming by 3% K−1 over wet tropical oceans) and the driest regions drier (precipitation decreases of −2% K−1 over dry tropical land regions) emerges over the 21st century in response to the substantial surface warming.