IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system

This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) 1979-2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981-2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081-2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the intertropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MI-ROC3.2-hires, MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS`s characteristics such as onset, duration, total monsoonal precipitation, and its interannual variability. On the other hand, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.

Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.

The South American Monsoon System and the 1970s climate transition

The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is characterised by intense convective activity and precipitation during austral summer. This study investigates changes in the onset, demise and duration of SAMS during 1948-2008. The results show a significant change in these characteristics in the early 1970s. Onset becomes steadily earlier from 1948 to early 1970s and has occurred earlier than 23-27 October after 1972-1973. Demise dates have remained later than 21-25 April after the mid-to-late 1970s. SAMS duration shows a statistical changepoint in the summer of 1971-1972 such that the mean duration was similar to 170 days (1948-1972) and 195 days (1972-1982). Vertically integrated moisture flux is used to diagnose changes in mean state and reveal statistically significant increases over South America after 1971-1972. Copyright. (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Landlocked countries in South America: transport system challenges

Includes bibliography

The role of the South Indian and Pacific oceans in South American monsoon variability

This work has investigated the impact of three different low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability modes located in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans on the interannual variability of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) using observed and numerical data. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis and numerical simulations with a General Circulation Model (GCM) were used. One of the three SST variability modes is located close to southeastern Africa. According to the composites, warmer waters over this region are associated with enhanced austral summer precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM is able to reproduce this anomalous precipitation pattern, simulating a wave train emanating from the Indian Ocean towards South America (SA). A second SST variability mode was located in the western Pacific Ocean. REOF analysis indicates that warmer waters are associated with drought conditions over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhanced precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM indicates that the warmer waters over Indonesia generate drought conditions over tropical SA through a Pacific South America-like (PSA) wave pattern emanating from the western Pacific. Finally, the third SST variability mode is located over the southwestern South Pacific. The composites indicate that warmer waters are associated with enhanced precipitation over the SACZ and drought conditions over the sub-tropics. There is a PSA-like wave train emanating from Indonesia towards SA, and another crossing the Southern Hemisphere in the extra-tropics, probably associated with transient activity. The GCM is able to reproduce the anomalous precipitation pattern, although it is weaker than observed. The PSA-like pattern is simulated, but the model fails in reproducing the extra-tropical wave activity.

Mid-Holocene multiproxy compilation for eastern South America

The mid-Holocene (6000 calibrated years before present) is a key period in palaeoclimatology because incoming summer insolation was lower than during the late Holocene in the Southern Hemisphere, whereas the opposite happened in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the effects of the decreased austral summer insolation over South American climate have been poorly discussed by palaeodata syntheses. In addition, only a few of the regional studies have characterised the mid-Holocene climate in South America through a multiproxy approach. Here, we present a multiproxy compilation of mid-Holocene palaeoclimate data for eastern South America. We compiled 120 palaeoclimatological datasets, which were published in 84 different papers. The palaeodata analysed here suggest a water deficit scenario in the majority of eastern South America during the mid-Holocene if compared to the late Holocene, with the exception of northeastern Brazil. Low mid-Holocene austral summer insolation caused a reduced land-sea temperature contrast and hence a weakened South American monsoon system circulation. This scenario is represented by a decrease in precipitation over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone area, saltier conditions along the South American continental margin, and lower lake levels.

Toward an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: ( i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors for rainfall and ( ii) a multimodel system composed of three European coupled ocean - atmosphere models. Three-month lead austral summer rainfall predictions produced by the components of the system are integrated ( i. e., combined and calibrated) using a Bayesian forecast assimilation procedure. The skill of empirical, coupled multimodel, and integrated forecasts obtained with forecast assimilation is assessed and compared. The simple coupled multimodel ensemble has a comparable level of skill to that obtained using a simplified empirical approach. As for most regions of the globe, seasonal forecast skill for South America is low. However, when empirical and coupled multimodel predictions are combined and calibrated using forecast assimilation, more skillful integrated forecasts are obtained than with either empirical or coupled multimodel predictions alone. Both the reliability and resolution of the forecasts have been improved by forecast assimilation in several regions of South America. The Tropics and the area of southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and northern Argentina have been found to be the two most predictable regions of South America during the austral summer. Skillful rainfall forecasts are generally only possible during El Nino or La Nina years rather than in neutral years.

Effects of RegCM3 parameterizations on simulated rainy season over South America

The impacts of change in the Grell convective scheme and biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) in RegCM3 are described. Three numerical experiments (RegZhang, RegClaris and RegArain) are conducted to reduce the RegCM3-Grell rainfall underestimation over tropical South America. The simulation referred to as RegZhang follows modifications made by Zhang et al. (2008) in the BATS. The RegClaris combines the RegZhang BATS parameters with a reduction of water drainage at the bottom of the subsoil layer in the regions covered by the tropical rain forest and a shorter convective time period for the Grell scheme. The RegArain considers this same modification in the Grell scheme, but uses a deeper total soil column and a deeper root system in the BATS. After the first year of simulation, the soil water content in RegZhang is progressively drained out of the soil column resulting in a deficit of rainfall in the Amazon. The RegClaris and RegArain, on the other hand, simulate a similar rainfall annual cycle in the Amazon, showing substantial improvement not only in phase but also in intensity. This improvement is partially related to an increase in evapotranspiration due to a larger availability of water in the soil column. A remote effect is also noted over the La Plata Basin region, where the larger summer rainfall rate may be related to the increase in moisture transport from the Amazon. Wind- and rainfall-based indices are applied to identify South American monsoon (SAM) timing. The RegClaris rainfall rates are adequate to identify the onset and the demise of SAM according to the observed data, whereas the rainfall deficit in RegZhang is associated with a delay in the onset and an early demise of the SAM.

Currents controlling sedimentation, deposits recording palaeo-hydrodynamics – lessons from the continental shelf-slope system off SE South America

The continental margin off SE South America hosts one of the world’s most energetic hydrodynamic regimes but also the second largest drainage system of the continent. Both, the ocean current system as well as the fluvial runoff are strongly controlled by the atmospheric circulation modes over the region. The distribution pattern of particular types of sediments on shelf and slope and the long-term built-up of depositional elements within the overall margin architecture are, thus, the product of both, seasonal to millennial variability as well as long-term environmental trends. This talk presents how the combination of different methodological approaches can be used to obtain a comprehensive picture of the variability of a shelf and upper-slope hydrodynamic system during Holocene times. The particular methods applied are: (a) Margin-wide stratigraphic information to elucidate the role of sea level for the oceanographic and sedimentary systems since the last glacial maximum; (b) Palaeoceanographic sediment proxies combined with palaeo-temperature indicating isotopes of bivalve shells to trace lateral shifts in the coastal oceanography (particularly of the shelf front) during the Holocene; (c) Neodymium isotopes to identify the shelf sediment transport routes resulting from the current regime; (d) Sedimentological/geochemical data to show the efficient mechanism of sand export from the shelf to the open ocean; (e) Diatom assemblages and sediment element distributions indicating palaeo-salinity and the changing marine influence to illustrate the Plata runoff history. Sea level has not only controlled the overall configuration of the shelf but also the position of the main sediment routes from the continent towards the ocean. The shelf front has shifted frequently since the last glacial times probably resulting from both, changes in the Westerly Winds intensity and in the shelf width itself. Remarkable is a southward shift of this front during the past two centuries possibly related to anthropogenic influences on the atmosphere. The oceanographic regime with its prominent hydrographic boundaries led to a clear separation of sedimentary provinces since shelf drowning. It is especially the shelf front which enhances shelf sediment export through a continuous high sand supply to the uppermost slope. Finally, the Plata River does not continuously provide sediment to the shelf but shows significant climate-related changes in discharge during the past centuries. Starting from these findings, three major fields of research should, in general, be further developed in future: (i) The immediate interaction of the hydrodynamic and sedimentary systems to close the gaps between deposit information and modern oceanographic dynamics; (ii) Material budget calculations for the marginal ocean system in terms of material fluxes, storage/retention capacities, and critical thresholds; (iii) The role of human activity on the atmospheric, oceanographic and solid material systems to unravel natural vs. anthropogenic effects and feedback mechanisms

Climatic evolution of eastern South America during the last deglaciation: a paleoceanographic approach

Para dar suporte ao atual debate sobre as consequências climáticas da liberação antropogênica de CO2 na atmosfera, o refinamento do conhecimento sobre mudanças climáticas e oceanográficas no passado é necessário. A Circulação de Revolvimento Meridional do Atlântico (CRMA) tem papel fundamental na oceanografia e clima das áreas sob influência do Oceano Atlântico, controlando diretamente a estratificação e distribuição de massas d\'água, a quantidade de calor transportada pelo oceano e os ciclo e armazenamento de compostos químicos, como o CO2 em mar profundo. A formação e circulação da Água Intermediária Antártica (AIA), envolvida no transporte de calor e sal para o giro subtropical do Hemisfério Sul e nas teleconexões climáticas entre altas e baixas latitudes, é componente importante do ramo superior da CRMA. A reconstrução de propriedades de massas de água intermediárias é, portanto, importante para a compreensão dos sistemas de retroalimentação entre oceano-clima. No entanto, informações quanto a evolução da AIA continuam limitadas. Oscilações da CRMA e consequentes mudanças na distribuição de calor tem implicações importantes para o clima Sul Americano, influenciando a disponibilidade de umidade para o Sistema de Monções Sul Americano (SMSA), via temperatura da superfície marinha e posicionamento da Zona de Convergência Intertropical. Neste trabalho nós reconstruímos a assinatura isotópica da AIA durante os estágios isotópicos marinhos 2 e 3 (41-12 cal ka AP) usando isótopos de carbono e oxigênio de foraminíferos bentônicos (gêneros Cibicidoides e Uvigerina) de um testemunho de sedimentos marinhos datados por radiocarbono (1100 m de profundidade e a 20°S na costa do Brasil). Concluímos que propriedades físicas e químicas da AIA mudaram durante os estadiais Heinrich 3 e 4, provavelmente como consequência de enfraquecimento da CRMA durante estes períodos. Também reconstruímos as condições continentais do leste brasileiro entre o último máximo glacial e a deglaciação (23-12 cal ka AP) baseadas em razões Ti/Ca de nosso testemunho de sedimentos marinhos como indicadoras de aporte terrígeno do Rio Doce. A maior parte da chuva que cai na Bacia do Rio Doce está relacionada a atividade do SMAS. Nosso registro de Ti/Ca em conjunto com \'\'delta\' POT.18\'O de espeleotemas da Caverna Lapa Sem Fim, também no leste do Brasil, sugere diminuição marcante da chuva durante o interestadial Bølling-Allerød, provavelmente relacionada a enfraquecimento do SMAS. Ademais comparamos as razões de Ti/Ca com dados de saída da rodada SYNTRACE do modelo climático CCSM3 com forçantes transientes para a última deglaciação. Os registros geoquímicos e a saída do modelo mostram resultados consistentes entre si e sugerem que o leste da América do Sul passou pelo seu período mais seco de toda a última deglaciação durante o interestadial Bølling-Allerød, provavelmente relacionado ao enfraquecimento do SMAS.

Petroleum System Analysis: Middle Magdalena Valley Basin, Colombia, South America

The purpose of this study is to create a petroleum system model and to assess whether or not the La Luna Formation has potential for unconventional exploration and production in the Middle Magdalena Valley Basin (MMVB), Colombia. Today, the Magdalena River valley is an intermontane valley located between the Central and Eastern Cordillera of Colombia. The underlying basin, however, represents a major regional sedimentary basin that received deposits from the Triassic through the Cenozoic. In recent years Colombia has been of great exploration interest because of its potentially vast hydrocarbon resources, existing petroleum infrastructure, and skilled workforce. Since the early 1900s when the MMVB began producing, it has led to discoveries of 1.9 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 2.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas (Willatt et al., 2012). Colombia is already the third largest producer of oil in South America, and there is good potential for additional unconventional exploration and production in the Cretaceous source rocks (Willatt et al., 2012). Garcia Gonzalez et al. (2009) estimate the potential remaining hydrocarbons in the La Luna Formation in the MMVB to be between 1.15 and 10.33 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE; P90 and P10 respectively), with 2.02 BBOE cumulative production to date. Throughout the 1900s and early 2000s, Cenozoic continental and transitional clastic reservoirs were the primary exploration interest in the MMVB (Dickey, 1992). The Cretaceous source rocks, such as the La Luna Formation, are now the target for unconventional exploration and production. In the MMVB, the La Luna formation is characterized by relatively high total organic carbon (TOC) values, moderate maturity, and adequate thickness and depth (Veigal and Dzelalijal, 2014). The La Luna Formation is composed of Cenomanian-Santonian aged shales, marls, and limestones (Veigal and Dzelalijal, 2014). In addition to the in-situ hydrocarbons, the fractured limestones in the La Luna formation act as secondary reservoirs for light oil from other formations (Veigal and Dzelalijal, 2014). Thus the system can be considered more of a hybrid play, rather than a pure unconventional play. The Cretaceous source rocks of the MMVB exhibit excellent potential for unconventional exploration and production. Due to the complex structural nature of the MMVB, an understanding of the distribution of rocks and variations in rock qualities is essential for reducing risk in this play.

Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?

Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultrahigh resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating.

Pediastrum species as potential indicators of lake-level change in tropical South America

We explored the potential for using Pediastrum (Meyen), a genus of green alga commonly found in palaeoecological studies, as a proxy for lake-level change in tropical South America. The study site, Laguna La Gaiba (LLG) (17°45′S, 57°40′W), is a broad, shallow lake located along the course of the Paraguay River in the Pantanal, a 135,000-km2 tropical wetland located mostly in western Brazil, but extending into eastern Bolivia. Fourteen surface sediment samples were taken from LLG across a range of lake depths (2-5.2 m) and analyzed for Pediastrum. We found seven species, of which P. musteri (Tell et Mataloni), P. argentiniense (Bourr. et Tell), and P. cf. angulosum (Ehrenb.) ex Menegh. were identified as potential indicators of lake level. Results of the modern dataset were applied to 31 fossil Pediastrum assemblages spanning the early Holocene (12.0 kyr BP) to present to infer past lake level changes qualitatively. Early Holocene (12.0-9.8 kyr BP) assemblages do not show a clear signal, though abundance of P. simplex (Meyen) suggests relatively high lake levels. Absence of P. musteri, characteristic of deep, open water, and abundance of macrophyte-associated taxa indicate lake levels were lowest from 9.8 to 3.0 kyr BP. A shift to wetter conditions began at 4.4 kyr BP, indicated by the appearance of P. musteri, though inferred lake levels did not reach modern values until 1.4 kyr BP. The Pediastrum-inferred mid-Holocene lowstand is consistent with lower precipitation, previously inferred using pollen from this site, and is also in agreement with evidence for widespread drought in the South American tropics during the middle Holocene. An inference for steadily increasing lake level from 4.4 kyr BP to present is consistent with diatom-inferred water level rise at Lake Titicaca, and demonstrates coherence with the broad pattern of increasing monsoon strength from the late Holocene until present in tropical South America.

A 45 kyr palaeoclimate record from the lowland interior of tropical South America

We present a well-dated, high-resolution, ~ 45 kyr lake sediment record reflecting regional temperature and precipitation change in the continental interior of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropics of South America. The study site is Laguna La Gaiba (LLG), a large lake (95 km2) hydrologically-linked to the Pantanal, an immense, seasonally-flooded basin and the world's largest tropical wetland (135,000 km2). Lake-level changes at LLG are therefore reflective of regional precipitation. We infer past fluctuations in precipitation at this site through changes in: i) pollen-inferred extent of flood-tolerant forest; ii) relative abundance of terra firme humid tropical forest versus seasonally-dry tropical forest pollen types; and iii) proportions of deep- versus shallow-water diatoms. A probabilistic model, based on plant family and genus climatic optima, was used to generate quantitative estimates of past temperature from the fossil pollen data. Our temperature reconstruction demonstrates rising temperature (by 4 °C) at 19.5 kyr BP, synchronous with the onset of deglacial warming in the central Andes, strengthening the evidence that climatic warming in the SH tropics preceded deglacial warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) by at least 5 kyr. We provide unequivocal evidence that the climate at LLG was markedly drier during the last glacial period (45.0–12.2 kyr BP) than during the Holocene, contrasting with SH tropical Andean and Atlantic records that demonstrate a strengthening of the South American summer monsoon during the global Last Glacial Maximum (~ 21 kyr BP), in tune with the ~ 20 kyr precession orbital cycle. Holocene climate conditions occurred as early as 12.8–12.2 kyr BP, when increased precipitation in the Pantanal catchment caused heightened flooding and rising lake levels in LLG. In contrast to this strong geographic variation in LGM precipitation across the continent, expansion of tropical dry forest between 10 and 3 kyr BP at LLG strengthens the body of evidence for widespread early–mid Holocene drought across tropical South America.