Solar Intensity Forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines

This paper presents several forecasting methodologies based on the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM), directed to the prediction of the solar radiance intensity. The methodologies differ from each other by using different information in the training of the methods, i.e, different environmental complementary fields such as the wind speed, temperature, and humidity. Additionally, different ways of considering the data series information have been considered. Sensitivity testing has been performed on all methodologies in order to achieve the best parameterizations for the proposed approaches. Results show that the SVM approach using the exponential Radial Basis Function (eRBF) is capable of achieving the best forecasting results, and in half execution time of the ANN based approaches.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme.

Stereoscopic imaging of an Earth-impacting solar coronal mass ejection: a major milestone for the STEREO mission

We present stereoscopic images of an Earth-impacting Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The CME was imaged by the Heliospheric Imagers onboard the twin STEREO spacecraft during December 2008. The apparent acceleration of the CME is used to provide independent estimates of its speed and direction from the two spacecraft. Three distinct signatures within the CME were all found to be closely Earth-directed. At the time that the CME was predicted to pass the ACE spacecraft, in-situ observations contained a typical CME signature. At Earth, ground-based magnetometer observations showed a small but widespread sudden response to the compression of the geomagnetic cavity at CME impact. In this case, STEREO could have given warning of CME impact at least 24 hours in advance. These stereoscopic observations represent a significant milestone for the STEREO mission and have significant potential for improving operational space weather forecasting.

Evidence for solar wind modulation of lightning

The response of lightning rates over Europe to arrival of high speed solar wind streams at Earth is investigated using a superposed epoch analysis. Fast solar wind stream arrival is determined from modulation of the solar wind V y component, measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft. Lightning rate changes around these event times are determined from the very low frequency arrival time difference (ATD) system of the UK Met Office. Arrival of high speed streams at Earth is found to be preceded by a decrease in total solar irradiance and an increase in sunspot number and Mg II emissions. These are consistent with the high speed stream's source being co-located with an active region appearing on the Eastern solar limb and rotating at the 27 d period of the Sun. Arrival of the high speed stream at Earth also coincides with a small (~1%) but rapid decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux, a moderate (~6%) increase in lower energy solar energetic protons (SEPs), and a substantial, statistically significant increase in lightning rates. These changes persist for around 40 d in all three quantities. The lightning rate increase is corroborated by an increase in the total number of thunder days observed by UK Met stations, again persisting for around 40 d after the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream. This result appears to contradict earlier studies that found an anti-correlation between sunspot number and thunder days over solar cycle timescales. The increase in lightning rates and thunder days that we observe coincides with an increased flux of SEPs which, while not being detected at ground level, nevertheless penetrate the atmosphere to tropospheric altitudes. This effect could be further amplified by an increase in mean lightning stroke intensity that brings more strokes above the detection threshold of the ATD system. In order to remove any potential seasonal bias the analysis was repeated for daily solar wind triggers occurring during the summer months (June to August). Though this reduced the number of solar wind triggers to 32, the response in both lightning and thunder day data remained statistically significant. This modulation of lightning by regular and predictable solar wind events may be beneficial to medium range forecasting of hazardous weather.

Differences between the CME fronts tracked by an expert, an automated algorithm, and the Solar Stormwatch project

Observations from the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments aboard the twin STEREO spacecraft have enabled the compilation of several catalogues of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), each characterizing the propagation of CMEs through the inner heliosphere. Three such catalogues are the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL)-HI event list, the Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue, and, presented here, the J-tracker catalogue. Each catalogue uses a different method to characterize the location of CME fronts in the HI images: manual identification by an expert, the statistical reduction of the manual identifications of many citizen scientists, and an automated algorithm. We provide a quantitative comparison of the differences between these catalogues and techniques, using 51 CMEs common to each catalogue. The time-elongation profiles of these CME fronts are compared, as are the estimates of the CME kinematics derived from application of three widely used single-spacecraft-fitting techniques. The J-tracker and RAL-HI profiles are most similar, while the Solar Stormwatch profiles display a small systematic offset. Evidence is presented that these differences arise because the RAL-HI and J-tracker profiles follow the sunward edge of CME density enhancements, while Solar Stormwatch profiles track closer to the antisunward (leading) edge. We demonstrate that the method used to produce the time-elongation profile typically introduces more variability into the kinematic estimates than differences between the various single-spacecraft-fitting techniques. This has implications for the repeatability and robustness of these types of analyses, arguably especially so in the context of space weather forecasting, where it could make the results strongly dependent on the methods used by the forecaster.

Improving photovoltaics grid integration through short time forecasting and self-consumption

The uncertainty associated to the forecast of photovoltaic generation is a major drawback for the widespread introduction of this technology into electricity grids. This uncertainty is a challenge in the design and operation of electrical systems that include photovoltaic generation. Demand-Side Management (DSM) techniques are widely used to modify energy consumption. If local photovoltaic generation is available, DSM techniques can use generation forecast to schedule the local consumption. On the other hand, local storage systems can be used to separate electricity availability from instantaneous generation; therefore, the effects of forecast error in the electrical system are reduced. The effects of uncertainty associated to the forecast of photovoltaic generation in a residential electrical system equipped with DSM techniques and a local storage system are analyzed in this paper. The study has been performed in a solar house that is able to displace a residential user?s load pattern, manage local storage and estimate forecasts of electricity generation. A series of real experiments and simulations have carried out on the house. The results of this experiments show that the use of Demand Side Management (DSM) and local storage reduces to 2% the uncertainty on the energy exchanged with the grid. In the case that the photovoltaic system would operate as a pure electricity generator feeding all generated electricity into grid, the uncertainty would raise to around 40%.

Remediation Of 17-α-ethinylestradiol Aqueous Solution By Photocatalysis And Electrochemically-assisted Photocatalysis Using Tio2 And Tio2/wo3 Electrodes Irradiated By A Solar Simulator.

TiO2 and TiO2/WO3 electrodes, irradiated by a solar simulator in configurations for heterogeneous photocatalysis (HP) and electrochemically-assisted HP (EHP), were used to remediate aqueous solutions containing 10 mg L(-1) (34 μmol L(-1)) of 17-α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), active component of most oral contraceptives. The photocatalysts consisted of 4.5 μm thick porous films of TiO2 and TiO2/WO3 (molar ratio W/Ti of 12%) deposited on transparent electrodes from aqueous suspensions of TiO2 particles and WO3 precursors, followed by thermal treatment at 450 (°)C. First, an energy diagram was organized with photoelectrochemical and UV-Vis absorption spectroscopy data and revealed that EE2 could be directly oxidized by the photogenerated holes at the semiconductor surfaces, considering the relative HOMO level for EE2 and the semiconductor valence band edges. Also, for the irradiated hybrid photocatalyst, electrons in TiO2 should be transferred to WO3 conduction band, while holes move toward TiO2 valence band, improving charge separation. The remediated EE2 solutions were analyzed by fluorescence, HPLC and total organic carbon measurements. As expected from the energy diagram, both photocatalysts promoted the EE2 oxidation in HP configuration; after 4 h, the EE2 concentration decayed to 6.2 mg L(-1) (35% of EE2 removal) with irradiated TiO2 while TiO2/WO3 electrode resulted in 45% EE2 removal. A higher performance was achieved in EHP systems, when a Pt wire was introduced as a counter-electrode and the photoelectrodes were biased at +0.7 V; then, the EE2 removal corresponded to 48 and 54% for the TiO2 and TiO2/WO3, respectively. The hybrid TiO2/WO3, when compared to TiO2 electrode, exhibited enhanced sunlight harvesting and improved separation of photogenerated charge carriers, resulting in higher performance for removing this contaminant of emerging concern from aqueous solution.

Dosimetria esporular: Bacillus subtilis TKJ6312 como biossensor de radiação solar biologicamente ativa

Since 2000, spore dosimetry and spectral photometry have been performed in parallel at the Southern Space Observatory, São Martinho da Serra (Southern Brazil). A comparative study involving data from Punta Arenas - Chile (53.2º S), São Martinho da Serra (29.5º S), Padang - Indonesia (0.9ºS), Brussels - Belgium (50.9º N) and Kiyotake - Japan (31.9º N) from 2000 to 2006 is presented. The Spore Inactivation Doses presented the higher values in summer (973 ± 73 for Punta Arenas and 4,369 ± 202 for São Martinho da Serra, as well 1,402 ± 170 and 3,400 ± 1,674 for Brussels and Kiyotake, respectively). The simplicity, robustness and high resistance of bacterial spores makes the biosensor an potential biological tool for UV-B monitoring.

Turbulent magnetic pumping in a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model

Context. The turbulent pumping effect corresponds to the transport of magnetic flux due to the presence of density and turbulence gradients in convectively unstable layers. In the induction equation it appears as an advective term and for this reason it is expected to be important in the solar and stellar dynamo processes. Aims. We explore the effects of turbulent pumping in a flux-dominated Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model with a solar-like rotation law. Methods. As a first step, only vertical pumping has been considered through the inclusion of a radial diamagnetic term in the induction equation. In the second step, a latitudinal pumping term was included and then, a near-surface shear was included. Results. The results reveal the importance of the pumping mechanism in solving current limitations in mean field dynamo modeling, such as the storage of the magnetic flux and the latitudinal distribution of the sunspots. If a meridional flow is assumed to be present only in the upper part of the convective zone, it is the full turbulent pumping that regulates both the period of the solar cycle and the latitudinal distribution of the sunspot activity. In models that consider shear near the surface, a second shell of toroidal field is generated above r = 0.95 R(circle dot) at all latitudes. If the full pumping is also included, the polar toroidal fields are efficiently advected inwards, and the toroidal magnetic activity survives only at the observed latitudes near the equator. With regard to the parity of the magnetic field, only models that combine turbulent pumping with near-surface shear always converge to the dipolar parity. Conclusions. This result suggests that, under the Babcock-Leighton approach, the equartorward motion of the observed magnetic activity is governed by the latitudinal pumping of the toroidal magnetic field rather than by a large scale coherent meridional flow. Our results support the idea that the parity problem is related to the quadrupolar imprint of the meridional flow on the poloidal component of the magnetic field and the turbulent pumping positively contributes to wash out this imprint.

New constraints on the chemical evolution of the solar neighbourhood and Galactic disc(s) Improved astrophysical parameters for the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey

We present a re-analysis of the Geneva-Copenhagen survey, which benefits from the infrared flux method to improve the accuracy of the derived stellar effective temperatures and uses the latter to build a consistent and improved metallicity scale. Metallicities are calibrated on high-resolution spectroscopy and checked against four open clusters and a moving group, showing excellent consistency. The new temperature and metallicity scales provide a better match to theoretical isochrones, which are used for a Bayesian analysis of stellar ages. With respect to previous analyses, our stars are on average 100 K hotter and 0.1 dex more metal rich, which shift the peak of the metallicity distribution function around the solar value. From Stromgren photometry we are able to derive for the first time a proxy for [alpha/Fe] abundances, which enables us to perform a tentative dissection of the chemical thin and thick disc. We find evidence for the latter being composed of an old, mildly but systematically alpha-enhanced population that extends to super solar metallicities, in agreement with spectroscopic studies. Our revision offers the largest existing kinematically unbiased sample of the solar neighbourhood that contains full information on kinematics, metallicities, and ages and thus provides better constraints on the physical processes relevant in the build-up of the Milky Way disc, enabling a better understanding of the Sun in a Galactic context.

The radius and mass of the close solar twin 18 Scorpii derived from asteroseismology and interferometry

The growing interest in solar twins is motivated by the possibility of comparing them directly to the Sun. To carry on this kind of analysis, we need to know their physical characteristics with precision. Our first objective is to use asteroseismology and interferometry on the brightest of them: 18 Sco. We observed the star during 12 nights with HARPS for seismology and used the PAVO beam-combiner at CHARA for interferometry. An average large frequency separation 134.4+/-0.3 mu Hz and angular and linear radiuses of 0.6759 +/- 0.0062 mas and 1.010 +/- 0.009 R(circle dot) were estimated. We used these values to derive the mass of the star, 1.02 +/- 0.03 M(circle dot).

Solar twins in M 67: evolutionary status and lithium abundance

Aims. We determine the age and mass of the three best solar twin candidates in open cluster M 67 through lithium evolutionary models. Methods. We computed a grid of evolutionary models with non-standard mixing at metallicity [Fe/H] = 0.01 with the Toulouse-Geneva evolution code for a range of stellar masses. We estimated the mass and age of 10 solar analogs belonging to the open cluster M 67. We made a detailed study of the three solar twins of the sample, YPB637, YPB1194, and YPB1787. Results. We obtained a very accurate estimation of the mass of our solar analogs in M 67 by interpolating in the grid of evolutionary models. The three solar twins allowed us to estimate the age of the open cluster, which is 3.87(-0.66)(+0.55) Gyr, which is better constrained than former estimates. Conclusions. Our results show that the 3 solar twin candidates have one solar mass within the errors and that M 67 has a solar age within the errors, validating its use as a solar proxy. M 67 is an important cluster when searching for solar twins.

Transiting exoplanets from the CoRoT space mission XIII. CoRoT-13b: a dense hot Jupiter in transit around a star with solar metallicity and super-solar lithium content

We announce the discovery of the transiting planet CoRoT-13b. Ground-based follow-up in CFHT and IAC80 confirmed CoRoT's observations. The mass of the planet was measured with the HARPS spectrograph and the properties of the host star were obtained analyzing HIRES spectra from the Keck telescope. It is a hot Jupiter-like planet with an orbital period of 4.04 days, 1.3 Jupiter masses, 0.9 Jupiter radii, and a density of 2.34 g cm(-3). It orbits a G0V star with T(eff) = 5 945 K, M(*) = 1.09 M(circle dot), R(*) = 1.01 R(circle dot), solar metallicity, a lithium content of +1.45 dex, and an estimated age of between 0.12 and 3.15 Gyr. The lithium abundance of the star is consistent with its effective temperature, activity level, and age range derived from the stellar analysis. The density of the planet is extreme for its mass, implies that heavy elements are present with a mass of between about 140 and 300 M(circle plus).