Élections expérimentales : la désertion stratégique et la participation sous différents modes de scrutin

Cette thèse s'intéresse au lien qui existe entre le système électoral et deux comportements importants de la vie civique, soit la participation à une élection et la désertion stratégique du candidat préféré vers un autre candidat. Ces thèmes sont abordés dans de nombreux et de très importants ouvrages en science politique. En passant par la théorie (Downs, 1957) jusqu'à des études de terrain par l'entremise de sondages (Abramson, 2010; Blais, 2010), diverses méthodologies ont été employées pour mieux expliquer les choix des électeurs. Ma contribution à l'avancement des connaissances dans ce domaine passe par l'usage de la méthode expérimentale pour mieux saisir les similitudes et différences dans les comportements des électeurs sous le système uninominal à un tour (UT) et la représentation proportionnelle (RP) ainsi que les mécanismes au niveau individuel qui produisent ces similitudes et différences. Le cœur de la thèse est composé des trois articles dont voici les résumés : Article 1. Des élections expérimentales faites à Montréal, Paris et Bruxelles permettent d'estimer l’influence directe du mode de scrutin sur la décision des électeurs de voter ou non, et de voter pour leur parti préféré ou non. En tout, 16 groupes de 21 électeurs votent sous différents systèmes électoraux, soit le UT et la RP. Les préférences sont attribuées aléatoirement et connues de tous les participants. Nos résultats indiquent que le vote n'est pas globalement plus sincère et que la participation électorale n'est pas plus élevée sous le système proportionnel. Toutefois, nous observons moins de désertion d'un petit parti sous le système proportionnel. Article 2. Les expériences permettent également d'expliquer pourquoi les électeurs votent parfois pour un parti autre que leur parti préféré. La conclusion principale est que la décision de voter de façon sincère ou non est influencée par les préférences individuelles, mais aussi par les perceptions des chances de gagner des candidats ainsi que des chances que son propre vote puisse décider le résultat de l'élection. Les électeurs qui désertent leur premier choix prennent en considération quel candidat est le plus près de leurs positions politiques, mais également de la viabilité de cette alternative. De plus, les électeurs qui aiment prendre des risques ont davantage tendance à déserter. Article 3. Le modèle de l'électeur pivot est mis à l'épreuve pour mieux comprendre la décision de voter ou non lors d'une élection. Nos expériences permettent de répliquer, avec un devis expérimental différent, les résultats importants des travaux de Duffy et Tavits (2008). Nos résultats confirment que la perception d'être pivot augmente la participation, que ces perceptions sont sujettes à la surestimation et que cette surestimation ne décline pas complètement dans le temps. Nous allons également plus loin que les recherches de Duffy et Tavits et nous trouvons que la participation n'est pas plus forte sous RP que sous UT et que la probabilité d'être pivot a un impact plus important chez les électeurs évitant de prendre des risques.

What’s information got to do with it? Third-party voting in plurality systems

Although strategic voting theory predicts that the number of parties will not exceed two in single-member district plurality systems, the observed number of parties often does. Previous research suggests that the reason why people vote for third parties is that they possess inaccurate information about the parties’ relative chances of winning. However, research has yet to determine whether third-party voting persists under conditions of accurate information. In this article, we examine whether possessing accurate information prevents individuals from voting for third-placed parties in the 2005 and 2010 British elections. We find that possessing accurate information does not prevent most individuals from voting for third-placed parties and that many voters possess reasonably accurate information regarding the viability of the parties in their constituencies. These findings suggest that arguments emphasizing levels of voter information as a major explanation for why multiparty systems often emerge in plurality systems are exaggerated.

Mixed-Member Electoral Systems in Constitutional Context : Taiwan, Japan, and Beyond /

After the electoral reform in 1994, Japan saw a gradual evolution from a multi-party system toward a two-party system over the course of five House of Representatives election cycles. In contrast, after Taiwan’s constitutional amendment in 2005, a two-party system emerged in the first post-reform legislative election in 2008. Critically, however, Taiwan’s president is directly elected while Japan’s prime minister is indirectly elected. The contributors conclude that the higher the payoffs of holding the executive office and the greater degree of cross-district coordination required to win it, the stronger the incentives for elites to form and stay in the major parties. In such a context, a country will move rapidly toward a two-party system. In Part II, the contributors apply this theoretical logic to other countries with mixed-member systems to demonstrate its generality. They find the effect of executive competition on legislative electoral rules in countries as disparate as Thailand, the Philippines, New Zealand, Bolivia, and Russia. The findings presented in this book have important implications for political reform. Often, reformers are motivated by high hopes of solving some political problems and enhancing the quality of democracy. But, as this group of scholars demonstrates, electoral reform alone is not a panacea. Whether and to what extent it achieves the advocated goals depends not only on the specification of new electoral rules per se but also on the political context—and especially the constitutional framework—within which such rules are embedded.

Voting games with incomplete information

We examine voting situations in which individuals have incomplete information over each others' true preferences. In many respects, this work is motivated by a desire to provide a more complete understanding of so-called probabilistic voting.

Chapter 2 examines the similarities and differences between the incentives faced by politicians who seek to maximize expected vote share, expected plurality, or probability of victory in single member: single vote, simple plurality electoral systems. We find that, in general, the candidates' optimal policies in such an electoral system vary greatly depending on their objective function. We provide several examples, as well as a genericity result which states that almost all such electoral systems (with respect to the distributions of voter behavior) will exhibit different incentives for candidates who seek to maximize expected vote share and those who seek to maximize probability of victory.

In Chapter 3, we adopt a random utility maximizing framework in which individuals' preferences are subject to action-specific exogenous shocks. We show that Nash equilibria exist in voting games possessing such an information structure and in which voters and candidates are each aware that every voter's preferences are subject to such shocks. A special case of our framework is that in which voters are playing a Quantal Response Equilibrium (McKelvey and Palfrey (1995), (1998)). We then examine candidate competition in such games and show that, for sufficiently large electorates, regardless of the dimensionality of the policy space or the number of candidates, there exists a strict equilibrium at the social welfare optimum (i.e., the point which maximizes the sum of voters' utility functions). In two candidate contests we find that this equilibrium is unique.

Finally, in Chapter 4, we attempt the first steps towards a theory of equilibrium in games possessing both continuous action spaces and action-specific preference shocks. Our notion of equilibrium, Variational Response Equilibrium, is shown to exist in all games with continuous payoff functions. We discuss the similarities and differences between this notion of equilibrium and the notion of Quantal Response Equilibrium and offer possible extensions of our framework.

Energy polarization and popular representation: Evidence from the Russian Duma

In this article we introduce the term “energy polarization” to explain the politics of energy market reform in the Russian Duma. Our model tests the impact of regional energy production, party cohesion and ideology, and electoral mandate on the energy policy decisions of the Duma deputies (oil, gas, and electricity bills and resolution proposals) between 1994 and 2003. We find a strong divide between Single-Member District (SMD) and Proportional Representation (PR) deputies High statistical significance of gas production is demonstrated throughout the three Duma terms and shows Gazprom's key position in the post-Soviet Russian economy. Oil production is variably significant in the two first Dumas, when the main legislative debates on oil privatization occur. There is no constant left–right continuum, which is consistent with the deputies' proclaimed party ideology. The pro- and anti-reform poles observed in our Poole-based single dimensional scale are not necessarily connected with liberal and state-oriented regulatory policies, respectively. Party switching is a solid indicator of Russia's polarized legislative dynamics when it comes to energy sector reform.

Structure-Based Phylogenetic Analysis of the Lipocalin Superfamily

Lipocalins constitute a superfamily of extracellular proteins that are found in all three kingdoms of life. Although very divergent in their sequences and functions, they show remarkable similarity in 3-D structures. Lipocalins bind and transport small hydrophobic molecules. Earlier sequence-based phylogenetic studies of lipocalins highlighted that they have a long evolutionary history. However the molecular and structural basis of their functional diversity is not completely understood. The main objective of the present study is to understand functional diversity of the lipocalins using a structure-based phylogenetic approach. The present study with 39 protein domains from the lipocalin superfamily suggests that the clusters of lipocalins obtained by structure-based phylogeny correspond well with the functional diversity. The detailed analysis on each of the clusters and sub-clusters reveals that the 39 lipocalin domains cluster based on their mode of ligand binding though the clustering was performed on the basis of gross domain structure. The outliers in the phylogenetic tree are often from single member families. Also structure-based phylogenetic approach has provided pointers to assign putative function for the domains of unknown function in lipocalin family. The approach employed in the present study can be used in the future for the functional identification of new lipocalin proteins and may be extended to other protein families where members show poor sequence similarity but high structural similarity.

Coevolution of capitalism and political representation: The choice of electoral systems

Protocorporatist West European countries in which economic interests were collectively organized adopted PR in the first quarter of the twentieth century, whereas liberal countries in which economic interests were not collectively organized did not. Political parties, as Marcus Kreuzer points out, choose electoral systems. So how do economic interests translate into party political incentives to adopt electoral reform? We argue that parties in protocorporatist countries were representative of and closely linked to economic interests. As electoral competition in single member districts increased sharply up to World War I, great difficulties resulted for the representative parties whose leaders were seen as interest committed. They could not credibly compete for votes outside their interest without leadership changes or reductions in interest influence. Proportional representation offered an obvious solution, allowing parties to target their own voters and their organized interest to continue effective influence in the legislature. In each respect, the opposite was true of liberal countries. Data on party preferences strongly confirm this model. (Kreuzer's historical criticisms are largely incorrect, as shown in detail in the online supplementary Appendix.). © 2010 American Political Science Association.

New microsatellite markers for Ulva intestinalis (Chlorophyta) and the transferability of markers across species of Ulvaceae

Macroalgal blooms are a growing environmental problem in eutrophicated coastal ecosystems. Members of the green algal genus Ulva are significant contributors to blooms, which are typically dominated by only one of several co-occurring opportunistic species. Our understanding of bloom dynamics, such as the importance of clonality, is limited because previously used genetic markers such as internal transcribed spacer sequences have shown very little resolution. Microsatellites are the marker of choice for such studies, but to date, only five primer pairs have been developed for a single member of this genus, Ulva intestinalis. We have now developed four new microsatellite markers for U. intestinalis using genome screening and restriction-ligation and tested them on individuals from six populations in the Gulf of Finland, Finland. All new markers exhibited polymorphism in U. intestinalis, with the numbers of alleles ranging from 6 to 10. On the basis of assignment tests, F-ST estimates and analysis of molecular variance, there was genetic differentiation among populations. Where significantly different, expected heterozygosity (HE) was higher than observed heterozygosity (Ho), indicating a trend toward heterozygote deficiency. This may indicate that although Ulva spores can disperse relatively efficiently, asexual reproduction can result in genetic differentiation among populations. We also tested the cross-species amplification of our primers and the five primer pairs reported previously on seven species of Ulva, Ulvaria obscura and Unbraulva olivascens (all members of the Ulvaceae). In each species, from five to nine of the loci produced an amplification product, and one to four alleles were discovered at each locus. These markers therefore have great potential for testing hypotheses about the formation and maintenance of multispecies macroalgal blooms.

RYIRFAMIDE - A TURBELLARIAN FMRFAMIDE-RELATED PEPTIDE (FARP)

FMRFamide was isolated originally from neural-tissue extracts of a bivalve mollusc, since when either authentic FMRFamide or a series of structurally-related peptides have been isolated from representative arthropods, annelids and many additional molluscs. However, to date no information exists as to the definitive presence and primary structure of a FaRP in a free-living flatworm. Here, we report the isolation and primary structure of a FaRP from the free-living turbellarian, Artioposthia triangulata, a species from which NPF has been previously structurally-characterised. Unlike molluscs and insects, in which several FaRP a are expressed, only a single member of this family was detected in this turbellarian. The primary structure of this turbellarian FaRP was established as Arg-Tyr-Ile-Arg-Phe-NH2 (RYIRFamide) and the molecular mass as 752.7 Da. These data have established unequivocally that FaRPs occur in the nervous systems of the most phylogenetically-ancient invertebrates which display bilaterally-symmetrical neuronal plans and that authentic FMRFamide is probably not the original member of the family in molecular evolutionary terms.

Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system

In this paper ensembles of forecasts (of up to six hours) are studied from a convection-permitting model with a representation of model error due to unresolved processes. The ensemble prediction system (EPS) used is an experimental convection-permitting version of the UK Met Office’s 24- member Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The method of representing model error variability, which perturbs parameters within the model’s parameterisation schemes, has been modified and we investigate the impact of applying this scheme in different ways. These are: a control ensemble where all ensemble members have the same parameter values; an ensemble where the parameters are different between members, but fixed in time; and ensembles where the parameters are updated randomly every 30 or 60 min. The choice of parameters and their ranges of variability have been determined from expert opinion and parameter sensitivity tests. A case of frontal rain over the southern UK has been chosen, which has a multi-banded rainfall structure. The consequences of including model error variability in the case studied are mixed and are summarised as follows. The multiple banding, evident in the radar, is not captured for any single member. However, the single band is positioned in some members where a secondary band is present in the radar. This is found for all ensembles studied. Adding model error variability with fixed parameters in time does increase the ensemble spread for near-surface variables like wind and temperature, but can actually decrease the spread of the rainfall. Perturbing the parameters periodically throughout the forecast does not further increase the spread and exhibits “jumpiness” in the spread at times when the parameters are perturbed. Adding model error variability gives an improvement in forecast skill after the first 2–3 h of the forecast for near-surface temperature and relative humidity. For precipitation skill scores, adding model error variability has the effect of improving the skill in the first 1–2 h of the forecast, but then of reducing the skill after that. Complementary experiments were performed where the only difference between members was the set of parameter values (i.e. no initial condition variability). The resulting spread was found to be significantly less than the spread from initial condition variability alone.

Heteropicnotic chromatin and nucleolar activity in meiosis and spermiogenesis of Limnogonus aduncus (Heteroptera, Gerridae): a stained nucleolar organizing region that can serve as a model for studying chromosome behavior.

Males of Limnogonus aduncus were found to have the sex chromosome system X0 and chromosome number 2n = 23 (22A + X0). Testis cells were stained with lacto-acetic orcein and silver nitrate so that changes in the morphology and degree of staining of the heteropicnotic chromatin and the nucleolar material could be observed during meiosis and spermiogenesis. These structures share the same nuclear position and could be seen until almost the end of spermiogenesis. A chromosome region stained with silver nitrate was indicative of a nucleolar organizing region (NOR), which is rarely detected in Heteroptera with this technique. The NOR is located at one end of a single member of an autosome pair. The finding of this stained region enabled us to observe that the telomeric association of sister chromatids that characterizes the Heteroptera does not include the chromosome ends, where NORs are located; we also observed in anaphase that the chromosome end through which it is pulled to the pole is the one containing the NOR. Another observation was that the single nucleolar body present in the cells at anaphase never goes to the cell pole that does not receive the NOR. We conclude that L. aduncus is a good model for cytogenetic studies involving nucleolar activity and also may be useful for studying the mechanisms of activation and inactivation of kinetic activity at the chromosome ends. Although the chromosomes of Heteroptera are known to be holocentric, whether kinetic activity is restricted to one or involves both chromosome ends is still not well understood.

Expressions- und Funktionsanalysen von "Tetraspan Vesicle Membrane Proteins" in Caenorhabditis elegans

Tetraspan vesicle membrane proteins (TVPs) sind ubiquitäre Komponenten von Transportvesikeln. Bei den Säugetieren unterscheidet man drei Familien, die Physine, Gyrine und SCAMPs (secretory carrier-associated membrane proteins). Ihre Funktion ist weitgehend unbekannt, es wird jedoch vermutet, dass sie eine Rolle bei der Vesikelbildung und der Vesikelrezirkulierung spielen. In Caenorhabditis elegans existiert von jeder Familie jeweils nur ein einziges Polypeptid: für die Physine Synaptophysin (SPH-1), für die Gyrine Synaptogyrin (SNG-1) und für die SCAMPs SCAMP (SCM-1). Ziel der Arbeit war es die Verteilung der C. elegans TVPs zu untersuchen und ihre Funktion unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der vesikelvermittelten synaptischen Kopplung zu bestimmen. Wenn die C. elegans TVPs in humanen Epithelzellen synthetisiert werden, lokalisieren sie in zytoplasmatischen Vesikeln. In Kotransfektionsexperimenten wurde gezeigt, dass sie größtenteils in den gleichen Strukturen enthalten sind. In C. elegans synthetisierte TVP-Reporterkonstrukte können in unterschiedlichen Geweben nachgewiesen werden. Dabei ist SNG-1 fast ausschließlich in Neuronen zu finden. SPH-1 und SCM-1 hingegen weisen komplexe und teilweise überlappende Verteilungsmuster auf. Während für SPH-1 eine starke Fluoreszenz im Pharynx, auf der apikalen Seite der Darmzellen oberhalb des sog. terminal webs und in adluminalen Regionen von exkretorischen Geweben gefunden wurde, war SCM-1 stark in der Muskulatur und den Coelomozyten vertreten. Die Expression von SCM-1 in Pharynx und Darm war deutlich schwächer. Die C. elegans TVPs werden früh in der Entwicklung ab der Gastrulation (SPH-1 und SCM-1) bzw. ab der Neurulation im sog. Komma-Stadium (SNG-1) produziert. Um die Funktion der TVPs in C. elegans zu untersuchen, wurden TVP-Mutanten analysiert. Durch Kombination aller drei TVP-Gen-Mutanten wurden TVP-Dreifachmutanten generiert. Diese wiesen keinen offensichtlichen Defekt im Bewegungsmuster auf, entwickelten sich normal und bildeten ein normales Nervensystem aus. Auch auf unterschiedliche chemische und physikalische Reize in sensorischen Tests reagierten die TVP-Dreifachmutanten in gleicher Weise wie Wildtyptiere. Ebenso zeigen die TVP-Dreifachmutanten elektrophysiologisch unter normalen Bedingungen keine anormalen Reaktionsmuster. In ultrastrukturellen Untersuchungen wurde lediglich eine signifikant erhöhte Anzahl Clathrin-ummantelter Vesikel in cholinergen Synapsen gefunden. Erst unter Stressbedingungen, hervorgerufen durch den GABA-Antagonisten Pentylentetrazol (PTZ), wiesen sowohl die TVP-Dreifach- als auch die TVP-Einzelmutanten eine deutlich erhöhte Krampfbereitschaft auf. Zusammengenommen zeigen die Analysen, dass TVPs zwar für grundlegende neuronale Prozesse nicht notwendig sind, dass sie aber auf der anderen Seite vermutlich an alternativen redundanten Wegen der Neurotransmitterfreisetzung beteiligt sind.