The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration

Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a Solution can only be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The cost of uniqueness is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed, the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the calibrated field. This, ill turn, can lead to erroneous predictions made by a model that is ostensibly well calibrated. Information made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood. In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is, in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained. A comparison of pre- and post-calibration parameter covariance matrices shows that the latter often possess a much smaller spectral bandwidth than the former. It is also demonstrated that, as all inevitable consequence of the fact that a calibrated model cannot replicate every detail of the true system, model-to-measurement residuals can show a high degree of spatial correlation, a fact which must be taken into account when assessing these residuals either qualitatively, or quantitatively in the exploration of model predictive uncertainty. These principles are demonstrated using a synthetic case in which spatial parameter definition is based oil pilot points, and calibration is Implemented using both zones of piecewise constancy and constrained minimization regularization. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ground water model calibration using pilot points and regularization

Use of nonlinear parameter estimation techniques is now commonplace in ground water model calibration. However, there is still ample room for further development of these techniques in order to enable them to extract more information from calibration datasets, to more thoroughly explore the uncertainty associated with model predictions, and to make them easier to implement in various modeling contexts. This paper describes the use of pilot points as a methodology for spatial hydraulic property characterization. When used in conjunction with nonlinear parameter estimation software that incorporates advanced regularization functionality (such as PEST), use of pilot points can add a great deal of flexibility to the calibration process at the same time as it makes this process easier to implement. Pilot points can be used either as a substitute for zones of piecewise parameter uniformity, or in conjunction with such zones. In either case, they allow the disposition of areas of high and low hydraulic property value to be inferred through the calibration process, without the need for the modeler to guess the geometry of such areas prior to estimating the parameters that pertain to them. Pilot points and regularization can also be used as an adjunct to geostatistically based stochastic parameterization methods. Using the techniques described herein, a series of hydraulic property fields can be generated, all of which recognize the stochastic characterization of an area at the same time that they satisfy the constraints imposed on hydraulic property values by the need to ensure that model outputs match field measurements. Model predictions can then be made using all of these fields as a mechanism for exploring predictive uncertainty.

A new method for conditioning stochastic groundwater flow models in fractured media

Many geological formations consist of crystalline rocks that have very low matrix permeability but allow flow through an interconnected network of fractures. Understanding the flow of groundwater through such rocks is important in considering disposal of radioactive waste in underground repositories. A specific area of interest is the conditioning of fracture transmissivities on measured values of pressure in these formations. This is the process where the values of fracture transmissivities in a model are adjusted to obtain a good fit of the calculated pressures to measured pressure values. While there are existing methods to condition transmissivity fields on transmissivity, pressure and flow measurements for a continuous porous medium there is little literature on conditioning fracture networks. Conditioning fracture transmissivities on pressure or flow values is a complex problem because the measurements are not linearly related to the fracture transmissivities and they are also dependent on all the fracture transmissivities in the network. We present a new method for conditioning fracture transmissivities on measured pressure values based on the calculation of certain basis vectors; each basis vector represents the change to the log transmissivity of the fractures in the network that results in a unit increase in the pressure at one measurement point whilst keeping the pressure at the remaining measurement points constant. The fracture transmissivities are updated by adding a linear combination of basis vectors and coefficients, where the coefficients are obtained by minimizing an error function. A mathematical summary of the method is given. This algorithm is implemented in the existing finite element code ConnectFlow developed and marketed by Serco Technical Services, which models groundwater flow in a fracture network. Results of the conditioning are shown for a number of simple test problems as well as for a realistic large scale test case.

Magnetic field in the outskirts of PSZ2 G096.88+24.18 from depolarization analysis of radio relics

Radio relics are one of the different types of diffuse radio sources present in a fraction of galaxy clusters. They are characterized by elongated arc-like shapes, with sizes that range between 0.5 and 2 Mpc, and highly polarized emission (up to ∼60%) at GHz frequencies The linearly polarized radiation of relics, moving through a magnetized plasma which is the ICM, is affected by the rotation of the linear polarization vector. This effect, known as “Faraday rotation”, can cause depolarization. The study of this effect allows us to constrain the magnetic field projected along the line of sight. The aim of this thesis work is to constrain the magnetic field intensity and distribution in the periphery of the cluster PSZ2 G096.88+24.18: this cluster hosts a pair of radio relics that can be used for polarization analysis. To analyse the polarization properties of the relics in PSZ2 G096.88+24.18 radio relics we used new Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) observations together with archival observations. The polarization study has been performed using the Rotation Measure Synthesis technique, which allows us to recover polarization, minimizing the bandwidth depolarization. Thanks to this technique, we recovered more polarization from the southern relic (with respect to provious works), We studied also the depolarization trend with the resolution for the southern relic, and found that the polarization fraction decreases with the beamsize. Finally, we have produced simulated magnetic fields models, varying the auto-correlation lengths of the magnetic field, in order to reproduce the observed depolarization trend in the southern relic. Comparing our observational results and model predictions, we were able to constrain the scales over which the turbulent magnetic field varies within the cluster. We conclude that the depolarization observed in the southern relic is likely due to external depolarization caused by the magnetized ICM distribution within the cluster.

Identification by computer-simulated RFLP of phytoplasmas associated with eggplant giant calyx representative of two subgroups, a lineage of 16SrIII-J and the new subgroup 16SrIII-U

Symptoms resembling giant calyx, a graft-transmissible disease, were observed on 1-5% of eggplant (aubergine; Solanum melongena L.) plants in production fields in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. Phytoplasmas were detected in 1 2 of 1 2 samples from symptomatic plants that were analysed by a nested PCR assay employing 16S rRNA gene primers R16mF2/R16mR1 followed by R16F2n/R16R2. RFLP analysis of the resulting rRNA gene products (1.2 kb) indicated that all plants contained similar phytoplasmas, each closely resembling strains previously classified as members of RFLP group 16SrIII (X-disease group). Virtual RFLP and phylogenetic analyses of sequences derived from PCR products identified phytoplasmas infecting eggplant crops grown in Piracicaba as a lineage of the subgroup 16SrIII-J, whereas phytoplasmas detected in plants grown in Braganca Paulista were tentatively classified as members of a novel subgroup 16SrIII-U. These findings confirm eggplant as a new host of group 16SrIII-J phytoplasmas and extend the known diversity of strains belonging to this group in Brazil.

Rapid computation of static fields produced by thick circular solenoids

A straightforward method is proposed for computing the magnetic field produced by a circular coil that contains a large number of turns wound onto a solenoid of rectangular cross section. The coil is thus approximated by a circular ring containing a continuous constant current density, which is very close to the real situation when sire of rectangular cross section is used. All that is required is to evaluate two functions, which are defined as integrals of periodic quantities; this is done accurately and efficiently using trapezoidal-rule quadrature. The solution can be obtained so rapidly that this procedure is ideally suited for use in stochastic optimization, An example is given, in which this approach is combined with a simulated annealing routine to optimize shielded profile coils for NMR.

Numerical investigations of flow and energy fields near a thermoacoustic couple

The flow field and the energy transport near thermoacoustic couples are simulated using a 2D full Navier-Stokes solver. The thermoacoustic couple plate is maintained at a constant temperature; plate lengths, which are short and long compared with the particle displacement lengths of the acoustic standing waves, are tested. Also investigated are the effects of plate spacing and the amplitude of the standing wave. Results are examined in the form of energy vectors, particle paths, and overall entropy generation rates. These show that a net heat-pumping effect appears only near the edges of thermoacoustic couple plates, within about a particle displacement distance from the ends. A heat-pumping effect can be seen even on the shortest plates tested when the plate spacing exceeds the thermal penetration depth. It is observed that energy dissipation near the plate increases quadratically as the plate spacing is reduced. The results also indicate that there may be a larger scale vortical motion outside the plates which disappears as the plate spacing is reduced. (C) 2002 Acoustical Society of America.

Conditional simulation of random fields by successive residuals

This paper presents a new approach to the LU decomposition method for the simulation of stationary and ergodic random fields. The approach overcomes the size limitations of LU and is suitable for any size simulation. The proposed approach can facilitate fast updating of generated realizations with new data, when appropriate, without repeating the full simulation process. Based on a novel column partitioning of the L matrix, expressed in terms of successive conditional covariance matrices, the approach presented here demonstrates that LU simulation is equivalent to the successive solution of kriging residual estimates plus random terms. Consequently, it can be used for the LU decomposition of matrices of any size. The simulation approach is termed conditional simulation by successive residuals as at each step, a small set (group) of random variables is simulated with a LU decomposition of a matrix of updated conditional covariance of residuals. The simulated group is then used to estimate residuals without the need to solve large systems of equations.

Influence of magnetically-induced E-fields on cardiac electric activity during MRI: A modeling study

In modern magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), patients are exposed to strong, time-varying gradient magnetic fields that may be able to induce electric fields (E-fields)/currents in tissues approaching the level of physiological significance. In this work we present theoretical investigations into induced E-fields in the thorax, and evaluate their potential influence on cardiac electric activity under the assumption that the sites of maximum E-field correspond to the myocardial stimulation threshold (an abnormal circumstance). Whole-body cylindrical and planar gradient coils were included in the model. The calculations of the induced fields are based on an efficient, quasi-static, finite-difference scheme and an anatomically realistic, whole-body model. The potential for cardiac stimulation was evaluated using an electrical model of the heart. Twelve-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) signals were simulated and inspected for arrhythmias caused by the applied fields for both healthy and diseased hearts. The simulations show that the shape of the thorax and the conductive paths significantly influence induced E-fields. In healthy patients, these fields are not sufficient to elicit serious arrhythmias with the use of contemporary gradient sets. However, raising the strength and number of repeated switching episodes of gradients, as is certainly possible in local chest gradient sets, could expose patients to increased risk. For patients with cardiac disease, the risk factors are elevated. By the use of this model, the sensitivity of cardiac pathologies, such as abnormal conductive pathways, to the induced fields generated by an MRI sequence can be investigated. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Characterisation of neutron spectra in mixed high energy fields in lineal accelerators: response functions validation

Actualment, la resposta de la majoria d’instrumentació operacional i dels dosímetres personals utilitzats en radioprotecció per a la dosimetria neutrònica és altament dependent de l’energia dels espectres neutrònics a analitzar, especialment amb camps neutrònics amb una important component intermitja. En conseqüència, la interpretació de les lectures d’aquests aparells es complicada si no es té un coneixement previ de la distribució espectral de la fluència neutrònica en els punts d’interès. El Grup de Física de les Radiacions de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (GFR-UAB) ha desenvolupat en els últims anys un espectròmetre de neutrons basat en un Sistema d’Esferes Bonner (BSS) amb un contador proporcional d’3He com a detector actiu. Els principals avantatges dels espectròmetres de neutrons per BSS són: la seva resposta isotròpica, la possibilitat de discriminar la component neutrònica de la gamma en camps mixtos, i la seva alta sensibilitat neutrònica als nivells de dosi analitzats. Amb aquestes característiques, els espectròmetres neutrònics per BSS compleixen amb els estándards de les últimes recomanacions de la ICRP i poden ser utilitzats també en el camp de la dosimetria neutrònica per a la mesura de dosis en el rang d’energia que va dels tèrmics fins als 20 MeV, en nou ordres de magnitud. En el marc de la col•laboració entre el GFR - UAB i el Laboratorio Nazionale di Frascati – Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (LNF-INFN), ha tingut lloc una experiència comparativa d’espectrometria per BSS amb els feixos quasi monoenergètics de 2.5 MeV i 14 MeV del Fast Neutron Generator de l’ENEA. En l’exercici s’ha determinat l’espectre neutrònic a diferents distàncies del blanc de l’accelerador, aprofitant el codi FRUIT recentment desenvolupat pel grup LNF. Els resultats obtinguts mostren una bona coherència entre els dos espectròmetres i les dades mesurades i simulades.

Control of optical fields and single photon emitters by advanced nanoantenna structures

The control of optical fields on the nanometre scale is becoming an increasingly important tool in many fields, ranging from channelling light delivery in photovoltaics and light emitting diodes to increasing the sensitivity of chemical sensors to single molecule levels. The ability to design and manipulate light fields with specific frequency and space characteristics is explored in this project. We present an alternative realisation of Extraordinary Optical Transmission (EOT) that requires only a single aperture and a coupled waveguide. We show how this waveguide-resonant EOT improves the transmissivity of single apertures. An important technique in imaging is Near-Field Scanning Optical Microscopy (NSOM); we show how waveguide-resonant EOT and the novel probe design assist in improving the efficiency of NSOM probes by two orders of magnitude, and allow the imaging of single molecules with an optical resolution of as good as 50 nm. We show how optical antennas are fabricated into the apex of sharp tips and can be used in a near-field configuration.

Learning wind fields with multiple kernels

This paper presents multiple kernel learning (MKL) regression as an exploratory spatial data analysis and modelling tool. The MKL approach is introduced as an extension of support vector regression, where MKL uses dedicated kernels to divide a given task into sub-problems and to treat them separately in an effective way. It provides better interpretability to non-linear robust kernel regression at the cost of a more complex numerical optimization. In particular, we investigate the use of MKL as a tool that allows us to avoid using ad-hoc topographic indices as covariables in statistical models in complex terrains. Instead, MKL learns these relationships from the data in a non-parametric fashion. A study on data simulated from real terrain features confirms the ability of MKL to enhance the interpretability of data-driven models and to aid feature selection without degrading predictive performances. Here we examine the stability of the MKL algorithm with respect to the number of training data samples and to the presence of noise. The results of a real case study are also presented, where MKL is able to exploit a large set of terrain features computed at multiple spatial scales, when predicting mean wind speed in an Alpine region.

Developing of the Variable Speed Drive -control in simulated parallel pumping systems

This thesis presents briefly the basic operation and use of centrifugal pumps and parallel pumping applications. The characteristics of parallel pumping applications are compared to circuitry, in order to search analogy between these technical fields. The purpose of studying circuitry is to find out if common software tools for solving circuit performance could be used to observe parallel pumping applications. The empirical part of the thesis introduces a simulation environment for parallel pumping systems, which is based on circuit components of Matlab Simulink —software. The created simulation environment ensures the observation of variable speed controlled parallel pumping systems in case of different controlling methods. The introduced simulation environment was evaluated by building a simulation model for actual parallel pumping system at Lappeenranta University of Technology. The simulated performance of the parallel pumps was compared to measured values of the actual system. The gathered information shows, that if the initial data of the system and pump perfonnance is adequate, the circuitry based simulation environment can be exploited to observe parallel pumping systems. The introduced simulation environment can represent the actual operation of parallel pumps in reasonably accuracy. There by the circuitry based simulation can be used as a researching tool to develop new controlling ways for parallel pumps.

Simulating the spatial variation of soil mineral N within fields using the model SUNDIAL

Variable rate applications of nitrogen (N) are of environmental and economic interest. Regular measurements of soil N supply are difficult to achieve practically. Therefore accurate model simulations of soil N supply might provide a practical solution for site-specific management of N. Mineral N, an estimate of N supply, was simulated by the model SUNDIAL (Simulation of Nitrogen Dynamics In Arable Land) at more than 100 locations within three arable fields in Bedfordshire, UK. The results were compared with actual measurements. The outcomes showed that the spatial patterns of the simulations of mineral N corresponded to the measurements but the range of values was underestimated.

Assessing the uncertainty associated with intermittent rainfall fields

[1] In many practical situations where spatial rainfall estimates are needed, rainfall occurs as a spatially intermittent phenomenon. An efficient geostatistical method for rainfall estimation in the case of intermittency has previously been published and comprises the estimation of two independent components: a binary random function for modeling the intermittency and a continuous random function that models the rainfall inside the rainy areas. The final rainfall estimates are obtained as the product of the estimates of these two random functions. However the published approach does not contain a method for estimation of uncertainties. The contribution of this paper is the presentation of the indicator maximum likelihood estimator from which the local conditional distribution of the rainfall value at any location may be derived using an ensemble approach. From the conditional distribution, representations of uncertainty such as the estimation variance and confidence intervals can be obtained. An approximation to the variance can be calculated more simply by assuming rainfall intensity is independent of location within the rainy area. The methodology has been validated using simulated and real rainfall data sets. The results of these case studies show good agreement between predicted uncertainties and measured errors obtained from the validation data.