Empresas de controle familiar e informed trading: evidências de short selling no mercado brasileiro?

O objetivo desse trabalho é testar se no mercado brasileiro, empresas familiares são mais suscetíveis a insider trading.Testes feitos no mercado americano evidenciaram efeito do controle familiar no conteúdo informacional embutido em montagem de posições vendidas de companhias abertas. Lá, foram encontrados níveis acima do normal de posições short em companhias de controle familiar principalmente em momentos que antecipavam resultados negativos que iriam ser publicados. Não encontramos evidências claras de que o fato da companhia ter controle familiar poderia levá-la a apresentar ou não insider trading, já que por limitação do modelo não é possível comparar o nível de anormal short para empresas de controle familiar e outras pois essa variável é excluída do modelo. Entretanto, observamos nos modelos em painel fixo com interações que existe diferença do efeito de algumas variáveis de controle para empresas de controle familiar ou não sobre outras variáveis de controle o que poderia mostrar que alguma influência o controle familiar poderia ter sobre o insider trading. Testamos também se empresas de controle estatal apresentavam maior volume médio diário anormal de posições vendidas em momentos que antecediam surpresas de resultado, e também não encontramos evidências claras e diretas que isso acontecia.

Short selling of securities; hearing before the Committee on the judiciary, House of representatives, 72d Congress, first session, on H.R.4, H.R.4604, H.R.4638, H.R.4639. February 15, 17, 19, 24, 1932.

Cover title.

A case study of short-sale constraints and limits to arbitrage

This paper uses a unique data set of trades in a unique pair of securities that enables the precise identification of individual broker activity and the trade direction of that activity. We find direct evidence that the imposition (removal) of short-sale constraints limits (generates) trading activity consistent with brokers exploiting apparent mispricing.

Short-Sale Constraints and the Pricing of Managerial Skills

We investigate the impact of the absence of short selling on the pricing of managerial skills in the mutual fund industry. In the presence of divergent opinions regarding managerial skills, fund managers can strategically use fees to attract only the most optimistic capital. The recognition of this fee strategy helps explain a set of stylized observations and puzzles in the mutual fund industry, including the underperformance of active funds, the existence of flow convexity, and the negative correlation between gross-of-fee α and fees.

Kirjan tie lukijalle : Kirjakauppojen vakiintuminen Suomessa 1740 - 1860

Books Paths to Readers describes the history of the origins and consolidation of modern and open book stores in Finland 1740 1860. The thesis approaches the book trade as a part of a print culture. Instead of literary studies choice to concentrate on texts and writers, book history seeks to describe the print culture of a society and how the literary activities and societies interconnect. For book historians, printed works are creations of various individuals and groups: writers, printers, editors, book sellers, censors, critics and finally, readers. They all take part in the creation, delivery and interpretation of printed works. The study reveals the ways selling and distributing books have influenced the printed works and the literary and print culture. The research period 1740 1860 covers the so-called second revolution of the book, or the modernisation of the print culture. The thesis describes the history of 60 book stores and their 96 owners. The study concentrates on three themes: firstly, how the particular book trade network became a central institution for printed works distribution, secondly what were the relations between cosmopolitan European book markets and the national cultural sphere, and thirdly how book stores functioned as cultural institutions and business enterprises. Book stores that have a varied assortment and are targeted to all readers became the main institution for book trade in Finland during 1740 1860. It happened because of three features. First, the book binders monopoly on selling bound copies in Sweden was abolished in 1740s. As a consequence entrepreneurs could concentrate solely to trade activities and offer copies from various publishers at their stores. Secondly the common business model of bartering was replaced by selling copies for cash, first in the German book trade centre Leipzig in 1770s. The change intensified book markets activities and Finnish book stores foreign connections. Thirdly, after Finland was annexed to the Russian empire in 1809, the Grand duchy s administration steered foreign book trade to book stores (because of censorship demands). Up to 1830 s book stores were available only in Helsinki and Turku. During next ten years book stores opened in six regional centres. The early entrepreneurs ran usually vertical businesses consisting of printing, publishing and distribution activities. This strategy lowered costs, eased the delivery of printed works and helped to create elaborated centres for all book activities. These book stores main clientele consisted of the Swedish speaking gentry. During late 1840s various opinion leaders called for the development of a national Finnish print culture, and also book stores. As a result, during the five years before the beginning of the Crimean war (1853 1856) book stores were opened in almost all Finnish towns: at the beginning of the war 36 book stores operated in 21 towns. The later book sellers, mainly functioning in small towns among Finnish speaking people, settled usually strictly for selling activities. Book stores received most of their revenues from selling foreign titles. Swedish, German, French and Belgian (pirate editions of popular French novels) books were widely available for the multilingual gentry. Foreign titles and copies brought in most of the revenues. Censorship inspections or unfavourable custom fees would not limit the imports. Even if the local Finnish print production steadily rose, many copies, even titles, were never delivered via book stores. Only during the 1840 s and 1850 s the most advanced publishers would concentrate on creating publishing programmes and delivering their titles via book stores. Book sellers regulated commissions were small. They got even smaller because of large amounts of unsold copies, various and usual misunderstandings of consignments and accounts or plain accidents that destroyed shipments and warehouses. Also, the cultural aim of a creating large and assortments and the tendency of short selling periods demanded professional entrepreneurship, which many small town book sellers however lacked. In the midst of troublesome business efforts, co-operation and mutual concern of the book market s entrepreneurs were the key elements of the trade, although on local level book sellers would compete, sometimes even ferociously. The difficult circumstances (new censorship decree of 1850, Crimean war) and lack of entrepreneurship, experience and customers meant that half of the book stores opened in 1845 1860 was shut in less than five years. In 1858 the few leading publishers established The Finnish Book Publishers Association. Its first task was to create new business rules and manners for the book trade. The association s activities began to professionalise the whole network, but at the same time the earlier independence of regional publishing and selling enterprises diminished greatly. The consolidation of modern and open book store network in Finland is a history of a slow and complex development without clear signs of a beginning or an end. The ideal book store model was rarely accomplished in its all features. Nevertheless, book stores became the norm of the book trade. They managed to offer larger selections, reached larger clienteles and maintained constant activity better than any other book distribution model. In essential, the book stores methods have not changed up to present times.

Empréstimo de ações no Brasil

Este trabalho investiga a atividade de empréstimo de ações no Brasil e sua conexão com operações de venda a descoberto em bolsa de valores. Descreve a organização do mercado, identifica fatores que determinam o nível de empréstimos e analisa os efeitos na eficiência da formação de preços das ações. Conclui que os vendedores atuam como contrários e que a atividade tem relação direta com o volume de negociação e inversa com a amplitude diária dos preços. Períodos de lock up e estabilização, esses após os IPOs, e o que antecede às ofertas subsequentes também influenciam o saldo de empréstimos, assim como a arbitragem tributária na distribuição, pelas empresas, de juros sobre capital próprio que tem efeito disruptivo sobre os preços das ações. Investidores a descoberto posicionam-se de modo a auferir excesso de retornos negativos e preferem ações com betas mais elevados. Os resultados também demonstram que o acréscimo de posições long-short a portfólio de investimento já existente aumentaria o retorno e reduziria o risco de mercado. Sobre a eficiência do mercado brasileiro, o estudo mostra que os preços das ações com saldos elevados de empréstimos ajustam-se com mais rapidez aos movimentos do mercado do que aquelas com menor saldo. O trabalho contribui, ainda, com recomendações pontuais para alterações da regulação e da organização operacional da atividade no País.

Títulos de dívida corporativa de empresas brasileiras: investir em emissões do mercado interno ou externo?

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a diferença de rentabilidade entre emissões de títulos de dívida corporativa de empresas brasileiras nos mercados local e externo. Sob a ótica do investidor interessado em comprar esses títulos, busca-se responder se, protegendo-se contra oscilações de fatores como câmbio e juros e controlando pelo prazo de vencimento, seria mais rentável em média adquirir um título local (debênture) ou externo (bond) de um mesmo emissor. Para isso, analisamos 177 emissões de debêntures e 119 emissões de bonds de 31 companhias não financeiras brasileiras no período entre janeiro de 2004 e abril de 2013. Regressões em painel com efeitos fixos para controlar pelas características de cada emissor verificam que, em média, o título do mercado externo paga de 164 a 197 bps a mais que o do mercado local, e que tal diferença é estatisticamente significante. A diferença deve-se à maior oferta e variedade de títulos de dívida corporativa no mercado externo, à existência de uma demanda cativa de investidores institucionais por debêntures no mercado local e à falta de integração entre os mercados. A participação de pessoas físicas no mercado externo também é identificada como fator relevante, assim como o possível maior custo de estruturação de dívida cobrado por bancos de investimento no mercado doméstico. Dentre as hipóteses formuladas para o motivo dessa diferença de rentabilidade não ser arbitrada, destacam-se o desconhecimento dos investidores e obstáculos operacionais, como custos de transação, impossibilidade de operação no mercado internacional e de venda a descoberto no mercado local. Tal fato causa ainda uma supervalorização das debêntures pela atuação dos investidores mais otimistas. A alta sensibilidade dos investidores institucionais locais à volatilidade dos retornos, também aparece como fator relevante.

Scenari finanziari e portafogli ottimi: modelli di previsione e strategie per l'asset allocation tattica

Le scelte di asset allocation costituiscono un problema ricorrente per ogni investitore. Quest’ultimo è continuamente impegnato a combinare diverse asset class per giungere ad un investimento coerente con le proprie preferenze. L’esigenza di supportare gli asset manager nello svolgimento delle proprie mansioni ha alimentato nel tempo una vasta letteratura che ha proposto numerose strategie e modelli di portfolio construction. Questa tesi tenta di fornire una rassegna di alcuni modelli innovativi di previsione e di alcune strategie nell’ambito dell’asset allocation tattica, per poi valutarne i risvolti pratici. In primis verificheremo la sussistenza di eventuali relazioni tra la dinamica di alcune variabili macroeconomiche ed i mercati finanziari. Lo scopo è quello di individuare un modello econometrico capace di orientare le strategie dei gestori nella costruzione dei propri portafogli di investimento. L’analisi prende in considerazione il mercato americano, durante un periodo caratterizzato da rapide trasformazioni economiche e da un’elevata volatilità dei prezzi azionari. In secondo luogo verrà esaminata la validità delle strategie di trading momentum e contrarian nei mercati futures, in particolare quelli dell’Eurozona, che ben si prestano all’implementazione delle stesse, grazie all’assenza di vincoli sulle operazioni di shorting ed ai ridotti costi di transazione. Dall’indagine emerge che entrambe le anomalie si presentano con carattere di stabilità. I rendimenti anomali permangono anche qualora vengano utilizzati i tradizionali modelli di asset pricing, quali il CAPM, il modello di Fama e French e quello di Carhart. Infine, utilizzando l’approccio EGARCH-M, verranno formulate previsioni sulla volatilità dei rendimenti dei titoli appartenenti al Dow Jones. Quest’ultime saranno poi utilizzate come input per determinare le views da inserire nel modello di Black e Litterman. I risultati ottenuti, evidenziano, per diversi valori dello scalare tau, extra rendimenti medi del new combined vector superiori al vettore degli extra rendimenti di equilibrio di mercato, seppur con livelli più elevati di rischio.

Evolution of futures trading.

Bibliography: p. 90-95.

A note on execution costs for stock index futures: Information versus liquidity effects

This paper examines execution costs and the impact of trade size for stock index futures using price-volume transaction data from the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange. Consistent with Subrahmanyam [Rev. Financ. Stud. 4 (1991) 11] we find that effective half spreads in the stock index futures market are small compared to stock markets, and that trades in stock index futures have only a small permanent price impact. This result is important as it helps to better understand the success of equity index products such as index futures and Exchange Traded Funds. We also find that there is no asymmetry in the post-trade price reaction between purchases and sales for stock index futures across various trade sizes. This result is consistent with the conjecture in Chan and Lakonishok [J. Financ. Econ. 33 (1993) 173] that the asymmetry surrounding block trades in stock markets is due to the high cost of short selling and the general reluctance of traders to short sell on stock markets. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Volatility and Correlations from High-Frequency Data

This dissertation contains four essays that all share a common purpose: developing new methodologies to exploit the potential of high-frequency data for the measurement, modeling and forecasting of financial assets volatility and correlations. The first two chapters provide useful tools for univariate applications while the last two chapters develop multivariate methodologies. In chapter 1, we introduce a new class of univariate volatility models named FloGARCH models. FloGARCH models provide a parsimonious joint model for low frequency returns and realized measures, and are sufficiently flexible to capture long memory as well as asymmetries related to leverage effects. We analyze the performances of the models in a realistic numerical study and on the basis of a data set composed of 65 equities. Using more than 10 years of high-frequency transactions, we document significant statistical gains related to the FloGARCH models in terms of in-sample fit, out-of-sample fit and forecasting accuracy compared to classical and Realized GARCH models. In chapter 2, using 12 years of high-frequency transactions for 55 U.S. stocks, we argue that combining low-frequency exogenous economic indicators with high-frequency financial data improves the ability of conditionally heteroskedastic models to forecast the volatility of returns, their full multi-step ahead conditional distribution and the multi-period Value-at-Risk. Using a refined version of the Realized LGARCH model allowing for time-varying intercept and implemented with realized kernels, we document that nominal corporate profits and term spreads have strong long-run predictive ability and generate accurate risk measures forecasts over long-horizon. The results are based on several loss functions and tests, including the Model Confidence Set. Chapter 3 is a joint work with David Veredas. We study the class of disentangled realized estimators for the integrated covariance matrix of Brownian semimartingales with finite activity jumps. These estimators separate correlations and volatilities. We analyze different combinations of quantile- and median-based realized volatilities, and four estimators of realized correlations with three synchronization schemes. Their finite sample properties are studied under four data generating processes, in presence, or not, of microstructure noise, and under synchronous and asynchronous trading. The main finding is that the pre-averaged version of disentangled estimators based on Gaussian ranks (for the correlations) and median deviations (for the volatilities) provide a precise, computationally efficient, and easy alternative to measure integrated covariances on the basis of noisy and asynchronous prices. Along these lines, a minimum variance portfolio application shows the superiority of this disentangled realized estimator in terms of numerous performance metrics. Chapter 4 is co-authored with Niels S. Hansen, Asger Lunde and Kasper V. Olesen, all affiliated with CREATES at Aarhus University. We propose to use the Realized Beta GARCH model to exploit the potential of high-frequency data in commodity markets. The model produces high quality forecasts of pairwise correlations between commodities which can be used to construct a composite covariance matrix. We evaluate the quality of this matrix in a portfolio context and compare it to models used in the industry. We demonstrate significant economic gains in a realistic setting including short selling constraints and transaction costs.

Finnish Short-Term Stock Returns

Functioning capital markets are a crucial part of a competitive economy since they provide the mechanisms to allocate resources. In order to be well functioning a capital market has to be efficient. Market efficiency is defined as a market where prices at any time fully reflect all available information. Basically, this means that abnormal returns cannot be predicted since they are dependent on future, presently unknown, information. The debate of market efficiency has been going on for several decades. Most academics today would probably agree that financial markets are reasonably efficient since virtually nobody has been able to achieve continuous abnormal positive returns. However, it is clear that a set of return anomalies exists, although they are apparently to small to enable substantial economic profit. Moreover, these anomalies can often be attributed to market design. The motivation for this work is to expand the knowledge of short-term trading patterns and to offer some explanations for these patterns. In the first essay the return pattern during the day is examined. On average stock prices move during two time periods of the day, namely, immediately after the opening and around the formal close of the market. Since stock prices, on average, move upwards these abnormal returns are generally positive and cause the distinct U-shape of intraday returns. In the second essay the results in the first essay are examined further. The return pattern around the former close is shown to partly be the result of manipulative action by market participants. In the third essay the focus is shifted towards trading patterns of the underlying stocks on days when index options and index futures on the stocks expire. Generally no expiration day effect was found. However, some indication of an expiration day effect was found when a large amount of open in- or at-the-money contracts existed. Also, the effects were likelier to be found for shares with high index-weight but fairly low trading volume. Last, in the forth essay the attention is turned to the behaviour of different tax clienteles around the dividend ex-day. Two groups of investors showed abnormal trading behaviour. Domestic non-financial investors, especially domestic companies, showed a dividend capturing behaviour, i.e. buying cum-dividend and selling ex-dividend shares. The opposite behaviour was found for foreign investors and domestic financial institutions. The effect was more notable for high yield, high volume stocks.

Transfers of Family Businesses to Non-Family Buyers - The Selling Business Family Perspective

This study focuses on business families and how they handle transitions such as business transfers. It also tries to shift the balance of research away from successions and towards business transfers as a key topic for family business researchers. In addition, it contributes to the family business research field by further highlighting the importance of the various different contributions in the family business from business family members other than the entrepreneurial founder. Based on interviews with both business family members and business brokers, it appears as important for business families who are selling their family business that it is managed in a similar way in the future regardless of the shift in ownership and management. It is also important that the employees can stay with the business. However, employees are seldom regarded as potential buyers of the family business; most preferably, from the point of view of business family members, this should be somebody who is similar to themselves. Business transfers can be lengthy processes, but once the family business is sold, previous owners most often want to leave the family business. This disengagement can be difficult for business family members if they have not managed to build up some other identity outside the family business environment. Money may compensate for the loss in the short run, but something else is needed in the long run, since the management of money is usually not perceived as that interesting. A family business transfer can have great influence on the members of the business family who is selling, and therefore it is suggested that personal due diligence could be of some help when planning the transfer. That tool can help business family members to analyse their own personal situation, but it may also make it easier to understand how the other business family members feel about the forthcoming change. Everyone is influenced in different ways during a family business transfer, and awareness of this fact may make it easier for the whole business family to adjust to their new environment.

Otimização de alavancagem e gestão de risco em estratégias long-short

Alavancagem em hedge funds tem preocupado investidores e estudiosos nos últimos anos. Exemplos recentes de estratégias desse tipo se mostraram vantajosos em períodos de pouca incerteza na economia, porém desastrosos em épocas de crise. No campo das finanças quantitativas, tem-se procurado encontrar o nível de alavancagem que otimize o retorno de um investimento dado o risco que se corre. Na literatura, os estudos têm se mostrado mais qualitativos do que quantitativos e pouco se tem usado de métodos computacionais para encontrar uma solução. Uma forma de avaliar se alguma estratégia de alavancagem aufere ganhos superiores do que outra é definir uma função objetivo que relacione risco e retorno para cada estratégia, encontrar as restrições do problema e resolvê-lo numericamente por meio de simulações de Monte Carlo. A presente dissertação adotou esta abordagem para tratar o investimento em uma estratégia long-short em um fundo de investimento de ações em diferentes cenários: diferentes formas de alavancagem, dinâmicas de preço das ações e níveis de correlação entre esses preços. Foram feitas simulações da dinâmica do capital investido em função das mudanças dos preços das ações ao longo do tempo. Considerou-se alguns critérios de garantia de crédito, assim como a possibilidade de compra e venda de ações durante o período de investimento e o perfil de risco do investidor. Finalmente, estudou-se a distribuição do retorno do investimento para diferentes níveis de alavancagem e foi possível quantificar qual desses níveis é mais vantajoso para a estratégia de investimento dadas as restrições de risco.