The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

Interest Rate Co-movements, Global Factors and the Long End of the Term Spread

The disconnect between rising short and low long interest rates has been a distinctive feature of the 2000s. Both research and policy circles have argued that international forces, such as global monetary policy (e.g. Rogoff, 2006); international business cycles (e.g. Borio and Filardo, 2007); or a global savings glut (e.g Bernanke, 2005) may be responsible. In this paper, we employ recent advances in panel data econometrics to document the disconnect and link it explicitly to the existence of a global latent factor that dominates the long end of the term spread for the recent period; the saving glut story emerges as the most likely contender for the global factor.

Prediction of the economic activity from the short and long-term interest rate differential: new evidences in Chile and the United States of America cases

The purpose of this work is to verify the stability of the relationship between real activity and interest rate spread. The test is based on Chen (1988) and Osorio and Galea (2006). The analysis is applied to Chile and the United States, from 1980 to 1999. In general, in both cases the relationship was statistically significant in early 80s, but a break point is found in both countries during that decades, suggesting that the relationship depends on the monetary rule follow by the Central Bank.

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

It is well known that cointegration between the level of two variables (e.g. prices and dividends) is a necessary condition to assess the empirical validity of a present-value model (PVM) linking them. The work on cointegration,namelyon long-run co-movements, has been so prevalent that it is often over-looked that another necessary condition for the PVM to hold is that the forecast error entailed by the model is orthogonal to the past. This amounts to investigate whether short-run co-movememts steming from common cyclical feature restrictions are also present in such a system. In this paper we test for the presence of such co-movement on long- and short-term interest rates and on price and dividend for the U.S. economy. We focuss on the potential improvement in forecasting accuracies when imposing those two types of restrictions coming from economic theory.

Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that the present value model (PVM hereafter), which has a wide application in macroeconomics and fi nance, entails common cyclical feature restrictions in the dynamics of the vector error-correction representation (Vahid and Engle, 1993); something that has been already investigated in that VECM context by Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2011) but has not been discussed before with this new emphasis. We also provide the present value reduced rank constraints to be tested within the log-linear model. Our second contribution relates to forecasting time series that are subject to those long and short-run reduced rank restrictions. The reason why appropriate common cyclical feature restrictions might improve forecasting is because it finds natural exclusion restrictions preventing the estimation of useless parameters, which would otherwise contribute to the increase of forecast variance with no expected reduction in bias. We applied the techniques discussed in this paper to data known to be subject to present value restrictions, i.e. the online series maintained and up-dated by Shiller. We focus on three different data sets. The fi rst includes the levels of interest rates with long and short maturities, the second includes the level of real price and dividend for the S&P composite index, and the third includes the logarithmic transformation of prices and dividends. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to them. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produce forecast winners 70% of the time for target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

Using a sequence of nested multivariate models that are VAR-based, we discuss different layers of restrictions imposed by present-value models (PVM hereafter) on the VAR in levels for series that are subject to present-value restrictions. Our focus is novel - we are interested in the short-run restrictions entailed by PVMs (Vahid and Engle, 1993, 1997) and their implications for forecasting. Using a well-known database, kept by Robert Shiller, we implement a forecasting competition that imposes different layers of PVM restrictions. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to the unrestricted VAR. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produces forecast winners 70% of the time for the target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Short- and long-term survival of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to the intensive care unit: prognostic factors

Decisions for intensive care unit (ICU) admissions in patients with advanced cancer are complex, and the knowledge of survival rates and prognostic factors are essential to these decisions. Ours objectives were to describe the short- and long-term survival of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to an ICU due to emergencies and to study the prognostic factors presented at ICU admission that could be associated with hospital mortality. We retrospectively analysed the charts of all patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted over a 1-year period. This gave a study sample of 83 patients. The ICU, hospital, 1-year and 2-year survival rates were 55.4%, 28.9%, 12.0% and 2.4% respectively. Thrombocytopenia (odds ratio 26.2; P = 0.006) and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) (odds ratio 1.09; P = 0.026) were independent factors associated with higher hospital mortality. In conclusion, the survival rates of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to the ICU due to emergencies were low, but of the same magnitude as other groups of cancer patients admitted to the ICU. The SAPS II score and thrombocytopenia on admission were associated with higher hospital mortality. The characteristics of the metastatic disease, such as number of organs with metastasis and central nervous system metastasis were not associated with the hospital mortality.

Short- and long-term effects of litter size manipulation in a small wild-derived rodent.

Iteroparous organisms maximize their overall fitness by optimizing their reproductive effort over multiple reproductive events. Hence, changes in reproductive effort are expected to have both short- and long-term consequences on parents and their offspring. In laboratory rodents, manipulation of reproductive efforts during lactation has however revealed few short-term reproductive adjustments, suggesting that female laboratory rodents express maximal rather than optimal levels of reproductive investment as observed in semelparous organisms. Using a litter size manipulation (LSM) experiment in a small wild-derived rodent (the common vole; Microtus arvalis), we show that females altered their reproductive efforts in response to LSM, with females having higher metabolic rates and showing alternative body mass dynamics when rearing an enlarged rather than reduced litter. Those differences in female reproductive effort were nonetheless insufficient to fully match their pups' energy demand, pups being lighter at weaning in enlarged litters. Interestingly, female reproductive effort changes had long-term consequences, with females that had previously reared an enlarged litter being lighter at the birth of their subsequent litter and producing lower quality pups. We discuss the significance of using wild-derived animals in studies of reproductive effort optimization.

A non-randomized direct comparison of cognitive-behavioral short- and long-term treatment for binge eating disorder

Background: To compare treatment outcomes of a cognitive-behavioral long-term (CBT-L) and short-term (CBT-S) treatment for binge eating disorder (BED) in a non-randomized comparison and to identify moderators of treatment outcome. Methods: 76 female patients with BED participated in the study: 40 in CBT-L and 36 in CBT-S. Outcome values were compared at the end of the active treatment phase (16 sessions for CBT-L, 8 sessions for CBT-S) and at 12-month follow-up. Results: Both treatments produced significant reductions in binge eating. At the end of active treatment, but not at the end of follow-up, effects of primary outcomes (e.g. remission from binge eating, EDE shape concern) were better for CBT-L than for CBT-S. Dropout rates were significantly higher in CBT-L (35%) than in CBT-S (14%). Moderator analyses revealed that treatment efficacy for rapid responders and individuals exhibiting high scores on the mixed dietary negative affect subtype differed between the CBT-L and CBT-S with respect to objective binges, restraint eating and eating concern. Conclusion: Findings suggest that CBT in general represents an effective treatment for BED, but that subgroups of patients might profit more from a prolonged treatment. Short, lessintensive CBT treatments could nevertheless be a viable option in the treatment of BED.

Anemia on admission predicts short- and long-term outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: It is still debatable whether anemia predicts stroke outcome. AIM: To describe the characteristics of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and anemia and identify whether hemoglobin status on admission is a prognostic factor of AIS outcome. METHODS: All 2439 patients of the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL) between January 2003 and June 2011 were selected. Demographics, risk factors, prestroke treatment, clinical, radiological and metabolic variables in patients with and without anemia according to the definition of the World Health Organization were compared. Functional disability and mortality were recorded up to 12 months from admission. RESULTS: Anemic patients (17.5%) were older, had lower body mass index, higher rates of coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus and peripheral artery disease. Anemia was associated with more severe stroke manifestations, lower systolic and diastolic blood pressure measurements, worse estimated glomerular filtration rate and elevated C-reactive protein concentrations upon admission and with increased modified Rankin scores during the follow-up. Anemic patients had higher 7-day, 3-month and 12-month mortality, which was associated with hemoglobin status and other factors, including age, CAD, stroke severity, and baseline C-reactive levels. Hemoglobin levels were inversely associated with recurrent stroke and mortality throughout the 12-month follow-up. CONCLUSION: Anemia is common among AIS patients and is associated with cardiovascular comorbidities. Low hemoglobin status independently predicts short and long-term mortality.

Incidence and consequence of major bleeding in primary percutaneous intervention for ST-elevation myocardial infarction in the era of radial access: an analysis of the international randomized Acute myocardial infarction Treated with primary angioplasty and intravenous enoxaparin Or unfractionated heparin to Lower ischemic and bleeding events at short- and Long-term follow-up trial.

AIMS: The aims of the study are to compare the outcome with and without major bleeding and to identify the independent correlates of major bleeding complications and mortality in patients described in the ATOLL study. METHODS: The ATOLL study included 910 patients randomly assigned to either 0.5 mg/kg intravenous enoxaparin or unfractionated heparin before primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Incidence of major bleeding and ischemic end points was assessed at 1 month, and mortality, at 1 and 6 months. Patients with and without major bleeding complication were compared. A multivariate model of bleeding complications at 1 month and mortality at 6 months was realized. Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed. RESULTS: The most frequent bleeding site appears to be the gastrointestinal tract. Age >75 years, cardiac arrest, and the use of insulin or >1 heparin emerged as independent correlates of major bleeding at 1 month. Patients presenting with major bleeding had significantly higher rates of adverse ischemic complications. Mortality at 6 months was higher in bleeders. Major bleeding was found to be one of the independent correlates of 6-month mortality. The addition or mixing of several anticoagulant drugs was an independent factor of major bleeding despite the predominant use of radial access. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that major bleeding is independently associated with poor outcome, increasing ischemic events, and mortality in primary percutaneous coronary intervention performed mostly with radial access.

Short and long-term repercussions of the experimental diabetes in embryofetal development

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Short- and long-term mortality and causes of death in HIV/tuberculosis patients in Europe

Mortality of HIV/tuberculosis (TB) patients in Eastern Europe is high. Little is known about their causes of death. This study aimed to assess and compare mortality rates and cause of death in HIV/TB patients across Eastern Europe and Western Europe and Argentina (WEA) in an international cohort study. Mortality rates and causes of death were analysed by time from TB diagnosis (<3 months, 3-12 months or >12 months) in 1078 consecutive HIV/TB patients. Factors associated with TB-related death were examined in multivariate Poisson regression analysis. 347 patients died during 2625 person-years of follow-up. Mortality in Eastern Europe was three- to ninefold higher than in WEA. TB was the main cause of death in Eastern Europe in 80%, 66% and 61% of patients who died <3 months, 3-12 months or >12 months after TB diagnosis, compared to 50%, 0% and 15% in the same time periods in WEA (p<0.0001). In multivariate analysis, follow-up in WEA (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.12, 95% CI 0.04-0.35), standard TB-treatment (IRR 0.45, 95% CI 0.20-0.99) and antiretroviral therapy (IRR 0.32, 95% CI 0.14-0.77) were associated with reduced risk of TB-related death. Persistently higher mortality rates were observed in HIV/TB patients in Eastern Europe, and TB was the dominant cause of death at any time during follow-up. This has important implications for HIV/TB programmes aiming to optimise the management of HIV/TB patients and limit TB-associated mortality in this region.

Investigating short- and long-term transfer effects of a Taiji beginner course in participants’ daily life

OBJECTIVE: In recent years research investigating various health benefits of Taiji practice has markedly increased. Despite this growing scientific interest, essential questions such as to what extent a Taiji course may exert noticeable effects in participants’ everyday life, what these effects are, and how and where potential transfer effects occur, have hardly been considered. The aim of our study was to explore transfer effects from a Taiji course into participants’ daily lives. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal observational study in 45 healthy participants at the end of their three-month Taiji beginner course (tp1) and at two months (tp2) as well as one year after course completion (tp3). Participants were asked to report their Taiji practice behavior at all time points, as well as to rate and describe perceived transfer effects of Taiji course contents on their daily life at tp1 and tp3. RESULTS: Transfer effects were reported by 91.1% of all respondents after course completion (tp1) and persisted in 73.3% at the one-year follow-up assessment (tp3), counting “increase of self-efficacy”, “improvement of stress management”, and “increase of body awareness” as the most frequently mentioned effects. Transfer effects predominantly occurred in participants’ work and social environments, as well as during everyday activities in public areas. While selfreliant Taiji practice frequency significantly decreased from 82.2% at tp1 to 55.6% at tp3 (P < 0.001), the magnitude of self-reported transfer effects did not (P = 0.35). As explorative analyses revealed, regular Taiji course attendance was highly correlated with stronger transfer effects at tp1 (r = 0.51; P < 0.001) and tp3 (r = 0.35; P = 0.020). Participants reporting high self-reliant Taiji practice frequency at tp2 were likely to maintain a regular practice routine at tp3 (r = 0.42; P < 0.004), whereas self-reliant practice frequency and transfer effects at tp1 were positively correlated with self-reliant practice frequency at tp3 on a trend level (r < 0.27; P > 0.08). CONCLUSION: Our data underline the importance of regular course participation for pronounced and long lasting transfer effects into participants’ everyday life. We discuss that several context and process-related aspects of a Taiji intervention are potentially relevant factors for enhancement of transfer effect.

Short- and long-term efficacy and mechanism of action of tumescent suction curettage for axillary hyperhidrosis

BACKGROUND Axillary hyperhidrosis is a common and distressing problem interfering with the life of affected individuals. Currently, local surgery is the treatment of choice once conservative treatment has failed. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of tumescent suction curettage (TSC) in treating axillary hyperhidrosis and to correlate it with histological markers. METHODS Thirty patients (17 females and 13 males, average age 29.9 years) underwent TSC. After tumescent anaesthesia, a suction cannula was inserted in the axilla on each side through two tiny incisions and subcutaneous tissue was removed by suction. We evaluated the clinical efficacy and complications, and in a subset of patients performed biopsies before surgery, as well as 1 month and 1 year after the operation. RESULTS In comparison with preoperative values, the sweat rate was diminished by 85% after 1 month, 71% after 6 months, 77% after 12 months and 61% after 24 months. The reduced efficacy with time was histologically correlated with an increase in the innervation, whereas the number of sweat glands continued to diminish. The majority of patients were satisfied with the operation but the satisfaction diminished with time. Patients with the highest preoperative sweat rates were the most satisfied after the intervention. CONCLUSION TSC is an effective and safe treatment for axillary hyperhidrosis. The long-term recurrence may be due to reinnervation.