Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity

A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the terrorist activities. This estimates the probability of future attacks as a function of the times since the past attacks. In addition, the excess of nonattack days coupled with the presence of multiple coordinated attacks on the same day compelled the use of hurdle models to jointly model the probability of an attack day and corresponding number of attacks. A power law distribution with a shot noise driven parameter best modeled the number of attacks on an attack day. Interpretation of the model parameters is discussed and predictive performance of the models is evaluated.

Endogenous and exogenous effects in self-exciting process models of terrorist activity

A model based on the cluster process representation of the self-exciting process model in White and Porter 2013 and Ruggeri and Soyer 2008is derived to allow for variation in the excitation effects for terrorist events in a self-exciting or cluster process model. The details of the model derivation and implementation are given and applied to data from the Global Terrorism Database from 2000–2012. Results are discussed in terms of practical interpretation along with implications for a theoretical model paralleling existing criminological theory.

Self-exciting threshold binomial autoregressive processes

We introduce a new class of integer-valued self-exciting threshold models, which is based on the binomial autoregressive model of order one as introduced by McKenzie (Water Resour Bull 21:645–650, 1985. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1985. tb05379.x). Basic probabilistic and statistical properties of this class of models are discussed. Moreover, parameter estimation and forecasting are addressed. Finally, the performance of these models is illustrated through a simulation study and an empirical application to a set of measle cases in Germany.

Application of the self-efficacy model in nursing practice [自我效能模式於護理臨床應用之剖析]

Self-efficacy has two cognitive components, efficacy expectations and outcome expectations, and their influence on behavior change is synergistic. Efficacy expectation is effected by four main sources of information provided by direct and indirect experiences. The four sources of information are performance accomplishments, vicarious experience, verbal persuasion and self-appraisal. How to measure and develop interventions is an important issue at present. This article clearly analyzes the relationship between variables of the self-efficacy model and explains the implementation of self-efficacy enhancing interventions and instruments in order to test the model. Through the process of the use of theory and feasibility in clinical practice, it is expected that professional medical care personnel should firstly familiarize themselves with the self-efficiency model and concept, and then flexibly promote it in professional fields clinical practice, chronic disease care and health promotion.

Sustaining safety and mobility amongst older adults : the multilevel older driver self-regulation model

This multidisciplinary research advanced the current understanding of self-regulation – a critical component in safe and sustainable mobility for older adults. It investigates the sociodemographic and psychosocial factors that underlies older adults' self-regulation, and examines their travel behaviours using a combination of self-report, in-vehicle and wearable devices. This research developed a novel theoretical model that significantly predicts self-regulation and objectively driving behaviours among older drivers.

On the Behavior of the Homogeneous Self-Dual Model for Conic Convex Optimization

There is a natural norm associated with a starting point of the homogeneous self-dual (HSD) embedding model for conic convex optimization. In this norm two measures of the HSD model’s behavior are precisely controlled independent of the problem instance: (i) the sizes of ε-optimal solutions, and (ii) the maximum distance of ε-optimal solutions to the boundary of the cone of the HSD variables. This norm is also useful in developing a stopping-rule theory for HSD-based interior-point methods such as SeDuMi. Under mild assumptions, we show that a standard stopping rule implicitly involves the sum of the sizes of the ε-optimal primal and dual solutions, as well as the size of the initial primal and dual infeasibility residuals. This theory suggests possible criteria for developing starting points for the homogeneous self-dual model that might improve the resulting solution time in practice

Low-molecular-weight gelators: Elucidating the principles of gelation based on gelator solubility and a cooperative self-assembly model

This paper highlights the key role played by solubility in influencing gelation and demonstrates that many facets of the gelation process depend on this vital parameter. In particular, we relate thermal stability (T-gel) and minimum gelation concentration (MGC) values of small-molecule gelation in terms of the solubility and cooperative self-assembly of gelator building blocks. By employing a van't Hoff analysis of solubility data, determined from simple NMR measurements, we are able to generate T-calc values that reflect the calculated temperature for complete solubilization of the networked gelator. The concentration dependence of T-calc allows the previously difficult to rationalize "plateau-region" thermal stability values to be elucidated in terms of gelator molecular design. This is demonstrated for a family of four gelators with lysine units attached to each end of an aliphatic diamine, with different peripheral groups (Z or Bee) in different locations on the periphery of the molecule. By tuning the peripheral protecting groups of the gelators, the solubility of the system is modified, which in turn controls the saturation point of the system and hence controls the concentration at which network formation takes place. We report that the critical concentration (C-crit) of gelator incorporated into the solid-phase sample-spanning network within the gel is invariant of gelator structural design. However, because some systems have higher solubilities, they are less effective gelators and require the application of higher total concentrations to achieve gelation, hence shedding light on the role of the MGC parameter in gelation. Furthermore, gelator structural design also modulates the level of cooperative self-assembly through solubility effects, as determined by applying a cooperative binding model to NMR data. Finally, the effect of gelator chemical design on the spatial organization of the networked gelator was probed by small-angle neutron and X-ray scattering (SANS/SAXS) on the native gel, and a tentative self-assembly model was proposed.

A new spin-2 self-dual model in D=2+1

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Polyacids self-dissociation model

This work deals with a model to interpret pH measurements of solutions of weak rodlike polyacids, in the absence of added salts or titrating base. The polyacid is modeled as a series of point charges discretely distributod in a straight line with a distance of closest approach for the protons and an average distance between dissociable monomers, projected in the polymer chain axis. Aside from these two geometrical parameters, the dissociation constant for the isolated monomer that describes the proton dissociated monomer interaction forms the basis of the model. The assumption of cylindrical symmetry and the adoption of the cell model lead to a form written in terms of elementary functions for the mean electrostatic potential. Values of pH (related to the proton concentration in a region beyond the influence of the polyacid) as a function of polymer concentration are displayed graphically for some values of the geometrical parameters and of the dissociation, constant. Theoretical predictions of pH values as a function of polymeric concentration are compared with measured values for poly-L-glutamic and polygalacturonic acids, and a good agreement is found. Theoretical values for the dissociation degree in terms of polymeric concentration are shown for the two experimentally investigated systems. These values are in a range appreciably smaller than what is usually studied as a result of titration.