Reassessing the earthquake hazard in Kerala based on the historical and current seismicity

Given the lack of proper constraints in understanding earthquake mechanisms in the cratonic interiors and the general absence of good quality database, here we reassess the seismic hazard in the province of Kerala, a part of the aEuro cent stable continental interioraEuro cent, based on an improved historical and instrumental database. The temporal pattern of the current seismicity suggests that > 60% of the microtremors in Kerala occurs with a time lag after the peak rainfall, indicating that hydroseismicity may be a plausible model to explain the low-level seismicity in this region. Further, an increment in overall seismicity rate in the region in the recent years is explained as due to increased anthropogenic activities, which includes changes in hydrological pathways as a consequence of rapid landscape changes. Our analyses of the historical database eliminate a few events that are ascribed to this region; this exercise has also led to identification of a few events, not previously noted. The improved historical database essentially suggests that the central midland region is more prone to seismic activity compared to other parts of Kerala. This region appears to have generated larger number of significant earthquakes; the most prominent being the multiple events (doublets) of 1856 and 1953, whose magnitudes are comparable to that of the 2000/2001 (central Kerala) events. Occurrences of these historical events and the recent earthquakes, and the local geology indicative of pervasive faulting as shown by widely distributed pseudotachylite veins suggest that the NNW-SSE trending faults in central midland Kerala may host discrete potentially active sources that may be capable of generating light to moderate size earthquakes. The frequency of earthquakes in central Kerala evident from the historical database requires that the seismic codes stipulated for this region are made mandatory.

Macroseismology as a Component of Seismicity Assessments in an Intraplate Region: Studies of Northern Europe with Emphasis on Finland

This work focuses on the role of macroseismology in the assessment of seismicity and probabilistic seismic hazard in Northern Europe. The main type of data under consideration is a set of macroseismic observations available for a given earthquake. The macroseismic questionnaires used to collect earthquake observations from local residents since the late 1800s constitute a special part of the seismological heritage in the region. Information of the earthquakes felt on the coasts of the Gulf of Bothnia between 31 March and 2 April 1883 and on 28 July 1888 was retrieved from the contemporary Finnish and Swedish newspapers, while the earthquake of 4 November 1898 GMT is an example of an early systematic macroseismic survey in the region. A data set of more than 1200 macroseismic questionnaires is available for the earthquake in Central Finland on 16 November 1931. Basic macroseismic investigations including preparation of new intensity data point (IDP) maps were conducted for these earthquakes. Previously disregarded usable observations were found in the press. The improved collection of IDPs of the 1888 earthquake shows that this event was a rare occurrence in the area. In contrast to earlier notions it was felt on both sides of the Gulf of Bothnia. The data on the earthquake of 4 November 1898 GMT were augmented with historical background information discovered in various archives and libraries. This earthquake was of some concern to the authorities, because extra fire inspections were conducted in three towns at least, i.e. Tornio, Haparanda and Piteå, located in the centre of the area of perceptibility. This event posed the indirect hazard of fire, although its magnitude around 4.6 was minor on the global scale. The distribution of slightly damaging intensities was larger than previously outlined. This may have resulted from the amplification of the ground shaking in the soft soil of the coast and river valleys where most of the population was found. The large data set of the 1931 earthquake provided an opportunity to apply statistical methods and assess methodologies that can be used when dealing with macroseismic intensity. It was evaluated using correspondence analysis. Different approaches such as gridding were tested to estimate the macroseismic field from the intensity values distributed irregularly in space. In general, the characteristics of intensity warrant careful consideration. A more pervasive perception of intensity as an ordinal quantity affected by uncertainties is advocated. A parametric earthquake catalogue comprising entries from both the macroseismic and instrumental era was used for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. The parametric-historic methodology was applied to estimate seismic hazard at a given site in Finland and to prepare a seismic hazard map for Northern Europe. The interpretation of these results is an important issue, because the recurrence times of damaging earthquakes may well exceed thousands of years in an intraplate setting such as Northern Europe. This application may therefore be seen as an example of short-term hazard assessment.

Magnetic fabrics indicating Late Quaternary seismicity in the Himalayan foothills

The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) study was performed on soft sediment samples from a trenched fault zone across the Himalayan frontal thrust (HFT), western Himalaya. AMS orientation of K-min axes in the trench sediments is consistent with lateral shortening revealed by geometry of deformed regional structures and recent earthquakes. Well-defined vertical magnetic foliation parallel to the flexure cleavage in which a vertical magnetic lineation is developed, high anisotropy, and triaxial ellipsoids suggest large overprinting of earth-quake- related fabrics. The AMS data suggest a gradual variation from layer parallel shortening (LPS) at a distance from the fault trace to a simple shear fabric close to the fault trace. An abrupt change in the shortening direction (K-min) from NE-SW to E-W suggests a juxtaposition of pre-existing layer parallel shortening fabric, and bending-related flexure associated with an earthquake. Hence the orientation pattern of magnetic susceptibility axes helps in identifying co-seismic structures in Late Holocene surface sediments.

Revisiting the earthquake sources in the Himalaya: Perspectives on past seismicity

The similar to 2500 km-long Himalaya plate boundary experienced three great earthquakes during the past century, but none of them generated any surface rupture. The segments between the 1905-1934 and the 1897-1950 sources, known as the central and Assam seismic gaps respectively, have long been considered holding potential for future great earthquakes. This paper addresses two issues concerning earthquakes along the Himalaya plate boundary. One, the absence of surface rupture associated with the great earthquakes, vis-a-vis the purported large slip observed from paleoseismological investigations and two, the current understanding of the status of the seismic gaps in the Central Himalaya and Assam, in view of the paleoseismological and historical data being gathered. We suggest that the ruptures of earthquakes nucleating on the basal detachment are likely to be restricted by the crustal ramps and thus generate no surface ruptures, whereas those originating on the faults within the wedges promote upward propagation of rupture and displacement, as observed during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, that showed a peak offset of 7 m. The occasional reactivation of these thrust systems within the duplex zone may also be responsible for the observed temporal and spatial clustering of earthquakes in the Himalaya. Observations presented in this paper suggest that the last major earthquake in the Central Himalaya occurred during AD 1119-1292, rather than in 1505, as suggested in some previous studies and thus the gap in the plate boundary events is real. As for the Northwestern Himalaya, seismically generated sedimentary features identified in the 1950 source region are generally younger than AD 1400 and evidence for older events is sketchy. The 1897 Shillong earthquake is not a decollement event and its predecessor is probably similar to 1000 years old. Compared to the Central Himalaya, the Assam Gap is a corridor of low seismicity between two tectonically independent seismogenic source zones that cannot be considered as a seismic gap in the conventional sense. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A study on seismicity and seismic hazard for Karnataka State

This paper presents a detailed study on the seismic pattern of the state of Karnataka and also quantifies the seismic hazard for the entire state. In the present work, historical and instrumental seismicity data for Karnataka (within 300 km from Karnataka political boundary) were compiled and hazard analysis was done based on this data. Geographically, Karnataka forms a part of peninsular India which is tectonically identified as an intraplate region of Indian plate. Due to the convergent movement of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate, movements are occurring along major intraplate faults resulting in seismic activity of the region and hence the hazard assessment of this region is very important. Apart from referring to seismotectonic atlas for identifying faults and fractures, major lineaments in the study area were also mapped using satellite data. The earthquake events reported by various national and international agencies were collected until 2009. Declustering of earthquake events was done to remove foreshocks and aftershocks. Seismic hazard analysis was done for the state of Karnataka using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches incorporating logic tree methodology. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) at rock level was evaluated for the entire state considering a grid size of 0.05A degrees x 0.05A degrees. The attenuation relations proposed for stable continental shield region were used in evaluating the seismic hazard with appropriate weightage factors. Response spectra at rock level for important Tier II cities and Bangalore were evaluated. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values at bedrock are presented in this work.

Microearthquake activity near the Idukki Reservoir, south India: A rare example of renewed triggered seismicity

Earthquakes triggered by artificial reservoirs have been documented for more than seven decades and the processes leading to this phenomenon are fairly well understood. Larger among such earthquakes are known to occur within a few years of reservoir impoundment and usually the activity decreases with time. A documented example of Reservoir Triggered Seismicity (RTS), the Idukki Reservoir in Kerala, south India, impounded in 1975, is an exception wherein the triggered activity has been revived in 2011, nearly 35 years after the initial burst of activity in 1977, two years after the dam was filled. The magnitude of the largest shock in the 2011 sequence exceeded that of the previously documented largest microearthquake. Presence of faults that are close to failure and vulnerable to increase in pore pressure due to reservoir loading or increased rainfall, or a combination of both seems to trigger shocks in this area. The renewed burst of earthquakes after a prolonged period of reduced activity at the Idukki Reservoir is a rare example of RTS. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Delineation of seismic source zones based on seismicity parameters and probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard using logic tree approach

The delineation of seismic source zones plays an important role in the evaluation of seismic hazard. In most of the studies the seismic source delineation is done based on geological features. In the present study, an attempt has been made to delineate seismic source zones in the study area (south India) based on the seismicity parameters. Seismicity parameters and the maximum probable earthquake for these source zones were evaluated and were used in the hazard evaluation. The probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard for south India was carried out using a logic tree approach. Two different types of seismic sources, linear and areal, were considered in the present study to model the seismic sources in the region more precisely. In order to properly account for the attenuation characteristics of the region, three different attenuation relations were used with different weightage factors. Seismic hazard evaluation was done for the probability of exceedance (PE) of 10% and 2% in 50 years. The spatial variation of rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values corresponding to return periods of 475 and 2500 years for the entire study area are presented in this work. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at ground surface level were estimated based on different NEHRP site classes by considering local site effects.

Recent Seismicity in India and Adjoining Regions

In the present work, historical and instrumental seismicity data of India and its adjoining areas (within 300km from Indian political boundary) are compiled to form the earthquake catalog for the country covering the period from 1505 to 2009. The initial catalogue consisted of about 139563 earthquake events and after declustering,the total number of events obtained was 61315. Region specific earthquake magnitude scaling relations correlating different magnitude scales were achieved and a homogenous earthquake catalogue in moment magnitude (MW) scale was developed for the region. This paper also presents the results of the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to prepare a digitized seismic source map of India. The latest earthquake data were superimposed on the digitized source map to get a final Seismotectonic map of India. The study area has been divided into 1225 grid points (approximately 110km×110km) and the seismicity analysis has been done to get the spatial variation of seismicity parameters ‘a’ and ‘b’ across the country. The homogenized earthquake catalogue with the event details is listed in the website http://civil.iisc.ernet.in/~sreevals/resource.htm

Spatial variation of seismicity parameters across India and adjoining areas

An attempt has been made to quantify the variability in the seismic activity rate across the whole of India and adjoining areas (0–45°N and 60–105°E) using earthquake database compiled from various sources. Both historical and instrumental data were compiled and the complete catalog of Indian earthquakes till 2010 has been prepared. Region-specific earthquake magnitude scaling relations correlating different magnitude scales were achieved to develop a homogenous earthquake catalog for the region in unified moment magnitude scale. The dependent events (75.3%) in the raw catalog have been removed and the effect of aftershocks on the variation of b value has been quantified. The study area was divided into 2,025 grid points (1°91°) and the spatial variation of the seismicity across the region have been analyzed considering all the events within 300 km radius from each grid point. A significant decrease in seismic b value was seen when declustered catalog was used which illustrates that a larger proportion of dependent events in the earthquake catalog are related to lower magnitude events. A list of 203,448 earth- quakes (including aftershocks and foreshocks) occurred in the region covering the period from 250 B.C. to 2010 A.D. with all available details is uploaded in the website http://www.civil.iisc.ernet.in/*sreevals/resource.htm.

Characteristics of near surface crustal deformation associated with shield seismicity

The purpose of the present study is to understand the surface deformation associated with the Killari and Wadakkancheri earthquake and to examine if there are any evidence of occurrence of paleo-earthquakes in this region or its vicinity. The present study is an attempt to characterize active tectonic structures from two areas within penisular India: the sites of 1993 Killari (Latur) (Mb 6.3) and 1994 Wadakkancheri (M 4.3) earthquakes in the Precambrian shield. The main objectives of the study are to isolate structures related to active tectonism, constraint the style of near – surface deformation and identify previous events by interpreting the deformational features. The study indicates the existence of a NW-SE trending pre-existing fault, passing through the epicentral area of the 1993 Killari earthquake. It presents the salient features obtained during the field investigations in and around the rupture zone. Details of mapping of the scrap, trenching, and shallow drilling are discussed here. It presents the geologic and tectonic settings of the Wadakkancheri area and the local seismicity; interpretation of remote sensing data and a detailed geomorphic analysis. Quantitative geomorphic analysis around the epicenter of the Wadakkancheri earthquake indicates suitable neotectonic rejuvenation. Evaluation of remote sensing data shows distinct linear features including the presence of potentially active WNW-ESE trending fault within the Precambrian shear zone. The study concludes that the earthquakes in the shield area are mostly associated with discrete faults that are developed in association with the preexisting shear zones or structurally weak zones

Seismic behavior of capacity designed masonry walls in low seismicity regions

Eurocode 8 representing a new generation of structural design codes in Europe defines ‎requirements for the design of buildings against earthquake action. In Central and ‎Western Europe, the newly defined earthquake zones and corresponding design ground ‎acceleration values, will lead in many cases to earthquake actions which are remarkably ‎higher than those defined so far by the design codes used until now in Central Europe. ‎ In many cases, the weak points of masonry structures during an earthquake are the corner ‎regions of the walls. Loading of masonry walls by earthquake action leads in most cases ‎to high shear forces. The corresponding bending moment in such a wall typically causes a ‎significant increase of the eccentricity of the normal force in the critical wall cross ‎section. This in turn leads ultimately to a reduction of the size of the compression zone in ‎unreinforced walls and a high concentration of normal stresses and shear stresses in the ‎corner regions. ‎ Corner-Gap-Elements, consisting of a bearing beam located underneath the wall and ‎made of a sufficiently strong material (such as reinforced concrete), reduce the effect of ‎the eccentricity of the normal force and thus restricts the pinching effect of the ‎compression zone. In fact, the deformation can be concentrated in the joint below the ‎bearing beam. According to the principles of the Capacity Design philosophy, the ‎masonry itself is protected from high stresses as a potential cause of brittle failure. ‎ Shaking table tests at the NTU Athens Earthquake Engineering Laboratory have proven ‎the effectiveness of the Corner-Gap-Element. The following presentation will cover the ‎evaluation of various experimental results as well as a numerical modeling of the ‎observed phenomena.‎

Induced seismicity in the Castarthao reservoir, NE Brazil - Preliminary results

The Castanhao reservoir was built in the state of Ceara, a dry region in Northeastern Brazil, to regulate the flow of the Jaguaribe River, for irrigation, and for power generation. It is an earth-filled dam, 60 m high, with a water capacity of 4.5 x 10(9) m(3). The seismicity in the area has been monitored since 1998, with a few interruptions, using one analog or one digital station and, during a few periods, a three-station network. The first earthquakes likely to be induced events were detected in 2003, when the water level was about 20 in high. In early 2004 a very heavy rainfall season quickly filled the reservoir. Shortly after, an increase in the seismic activity occurred and many micro-earthquakes were recorded. We suggest that this activity resulted from an increase in pore pressure due to undrained response. Therefore, we may classify this cluster of microearthquakes as ""initial seismicity."" We deployed a network with four analog stations in the area, following this activity, to determine the epicentral zone. At least three epicentral areas under the reservoir were detected. The spatio-temporal analysis of the available data revealed that the seismicity occurs in clusters and that these were activated at different periods. We identified four sets of faults (N-S-, E-W-, NW-SE-, and NE-SW-oriented), some of which moved in shallow crustal levels and as recently as the Quaternary (1.8 Ma). Under the present-day stress regime, the last two sets moved as strike-slip structures. We suggest a possible correlation between dormant faults and the observed induced seismicity. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Sao Vicente earthquake of 2008 April and seismicity in the continental shelf off SE Brazil: further evidence for flexural stresses

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

TDEM survey in an area of seismicity induced by water wells in Parana sedimentary basin, Northern Sao Paulo State, Brazil

This article presents TDEM results from an area with recent induced shallow seismicity. The purpose was to do a geoelectrical mapping of sedimentary and fractured basaltic aquifers for better understanding of the hydrogeologic setting. The study area is in the Parana basin where flood basalts are overlain by sedimentary units near the city of Bebedouro, northern Sao Paulo State, Brazil. 86 TDEM soundings were acquired in an area of 90 km(2) in the Andes and Botafogo study areas. The soundings were chosen next to wells for calibration, and also along profiles crossing the seismically active areas. 1-D interpretation results showed the general geoelectrical stratigraphy of this part of the Parana basin. The upper geoelectrical layer is the shallow sedimentary aquifer (Adamantina formation) with less than 80 m thickness. The second geoelectrical layer contains the upper basalts of the Serra Geral formation at about 60-80 m depths. A saturated fractured basalt zone between 100 and 300 m depths was identifiable on various TDEM soundings. This depth range corresponds to the range of hypocentral depths for more than 3000 micro-earthquakes in this area. The lower basalt layer was estimated to lie between 400 and 650 m depth. The deepest geoelectrical layer detected by various TDEM soundings corresponds to the Botucatu sandstone (Guarani aquifer). Results suggest that the high-discharge wells are located in the fractured zone in the middle basalt of the Serra Geral formation. There is a good correlation between seismically active areas, high discharge wells (>190 m(3)/h), and fracture zones in the middle basalt. The results reinforce the hypothesis that the shallow seismic activity in the Bebedouro region is being triggered by high rates of groundwater withdrawal. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.