Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Seismic sequences analysis for estimation of earthquake source parameters: corner frequency, stress drop, and seismic moment observations

The present study has been carried out with the following objectives: i) To investigate the attributes of source parameters of local and regional earthquakes; ii) To estimate, as accurately as possible, M0, fc, Δσ and their standard errors to infer their relationship with source size; iii) To quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion and to study the source scaling. This work is based on observational data of micro, small and moderate -earthquakes for three selected seismic sequences, namely Parkfield (CA, USA), Maule (Chile) and Ferrara (Italy). For the Parkfield seismic sequence (CA), a data set of 757 (42 clusters) repeating micro-earthquakes (0 ≤ MW ≤ 2), collected using borehole High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), have been analyzed and interpreted. We used the coda methodology to compute spectral ratios to obtain accurate values of fc , Δσ, and M0 for three target clusters (San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Hawaii) of our data. We also performed a general regression on peak ground velocities to obtain reliable seismic spectra of all earthquakes. For the Maule seismic sequence, a data set of 172 aftershocks of the 2010 MW 8.8 earthquake (3.7 ≤ MW ≤ 6.2), recorded by more than 100 temporary broadband stations, have been analyzed and interpreted to quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion in this subduction zone. We completely calibrated the excitation and attenuation of the ground motion in Central Chile. For the Ferrara sequence, we calculated moment tensor solutions for 20 events from MW 5.63 (the largest main event occurred on May 20 2012), down to MW 3.2 by a 1-D velocity model for the crust beneath the Pianura Padana, using all the geophysical and geological information available for the area. The PADANIA model allowed a numerical study on the characteristics of the ground motion in the thick sediments of the flood plain.

Tertiary evolution of the São Vicente and Setúbal submarine canyons, Southwest Portugal: insights from seismic stratigraphy

The Setúbal and São Vicente canyons are two major modern submarine canyons located in the southwest Iberian margin of Portugal. Although recognised as Pliocene to Quaternary features, their development during the Tertiary has not been fully understood up to date. A grid of 2D seismic data has been used to characterise the sedimentary deposits of the adjacent flanks to the submarine canyons. The relationship between the geological structure of the margin and the canyon's present location has been investigated. The interpretation of the main seismic units allowed the recognition of three generations of ravinements probably originated after middle Oligocene. Six units grouped in two distinctive seismic sequences have been identified and correlated with offshore stratigraphic data. Seismic Sequence 2 (SS2), the oldest, overlies Mesozoic and upper Eocene deformed units. Seismic Sequence I (SS1) is composed of four different seismic packages separated from SS2 by an erosional surface. The base of the studied sediment ridges is marked by an extensive erosional surface derived from a early/middle Oligocene relative sea-level fall. Deposition in the adjacent area to the actual canyons was reinitiated in late Oligocene in the form of transgressive and channel-fill deposits. A new depositional hiatus is recorded onshore during the Burdigalian, coincident with the unconformity separating SS1 and SS2. This can be correlated with the Arrábida unconformity and with the paroxysmal Burdigalian phase of the Betic domain. Presently, the Setúbal and São Vicente submarine canyons locally cut SS1 and SS2, forming distinctive channels from those recognised on the seismic data. On the upper shelf both dissect highly deformed areas subject to important erosion.

The El Masnou Infralittoral sedimentary environment (Barcelona province, NW Mediterranean Sea): morphology and Holocene seismic stratigraphy

A detailed analysis of the morphology and the Holocene seismic and sequence stratigraphy and architecture of the infralittoral sedimentary environment of the El Masnou coast (Catalonia, NW Mediterranean Sea) was carried out using multibeam bathymetry and GeoPulse seismic data. This environment extends down to 26-30 m water depth, and is defined morphologically by two depositional wedges whose seafloor is affected by erosive furrows, slides, fields of large- and small-scale wavy bedforms, and dredging trenches and pits. Erosive terraces are also identified in the transition domain toward the inner continental shelf. The Holocene stratigraphy of the infralittoral environment is defined by two major seismic sequences (lower and upper), each one formed by internal seismic units. The sequences and units are characterised by downlapping surfaces made up of deposits formed by progradation of coastal lithosomes. The stratigraphy and stratal architecture, displaying a retrogradational arrangement with progradational patterns of minor order, were controlled by different sea-level positions. The stratigraphic division represents the coastal response to the last fourth-order transgressive and highstand conditions, modulated by small-scale sea-level oscillations (≈1-2 m) of fith to sixth order. This study also highlights the advantage of an integrated analysis using acoustic/seismic methods for practical assessment of the anthropogenic effects on infralittoral domains based on the association of marine geological observations.

Depths and ages of seismic sequence boundaries in ODP Leg 166 holes

High-resolution, multichannel seismic data collected across the Great Bahama Bank margin and the adjacent Straits of Florida indicate that the deposition of Neogene-Quaternary strata in this transect are controlled by two sedimentation mechanisms: (1) west-dipping layers of the platform margin, which are a product of sea-level-controlled, platform-derived downslope sedimentation; and (2) east- or north-dipping drift deposits in the basinal areas, which are deposited by ocean currents. These two sediment systems are active simultaneously and interfinger at the toe-of-slope. The prograding system consists of sigmoidal clinoforms that advanced the margin some 25 km into the Straits of Florida. The foresets of the clinoforms are approximately 600 m high with variable slope angles that steepen significantly in the Pleistocene section. The seismic facies of the prograding clinoforms on the slope is characterized by dominant, partly chaotic, cut-and-fill geometries caused by submarine canyons that are oriented downslope. In the basin axis, seismic geometries and facies document deposition from and by currents. Most impressive is an 800-m-thick drift deposit at the confluence of the Santaren Channel and the Straits of Florida. This "Santaren Drift" is slightly asymmetric, thinning to the north. The drift displays a highly coherent seismic facies characterized by a continuous succession of reflections, indicating very regular sedimentation. Leg 166 of the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) drilled a transect of five deep holes between 2 and 30 km from the modern platform margin and retrieved the sediments from both the slope and basin systems. The Neogene slope sediments consist of peri-platform oozes intercalated with turbidites, whereas the basinal drift deposits consist of more homogeneous, fine-grained carbonates that were deposited without major hiatuses by the Florida Current starting at approximately 12.4 Ma. Sea-level fluctuations, which controlled the carbonate production on Great Bahama Bank by repeated exposure of the platform top, controlled lithologic alternations and hiatuses in sedimentation across the transect. Both sedimentary systems are contained in 17 seismic sequences that were identified in the Neogene-Quaternary section. Seismic sequence boundaries were identified based on geometric unconformities beneath the Great Bahama Bank. All the sequence boundaries could be traced across the entire transect into the Straits of Florida. Biostratigraphic age determinations of seismic reflections indicate that the seismic reflections of sequence boundaries have chronostratigraphic significance across both depositional environments.

An application of reliability-based robustness assessment of steel moment resisting frame structures under post-mainshock cascading events

The paper presented herein proposes a reliability-based framework for quantifying the structural robustness considering the occurrence of a major earthquake (mainshock) and subsequent cascading hazard events, such as aftershocks that are triggered by the mainshock. These events can significantly increase the probability of failure of buildings, especially for structures that are damaged during the mainshock. The application of the proposed framework is exemplified through three numerical case studies. The case studies correspond to three SAC steel moment frame buildings of 3-, 9-, and 20- stories, which were designed to pre-Northridge codes and standards. Twodimensional nonlinear finite element models of the buildings are developed using the Open System for Earthquake Engineering Simulation framework (OpenSees), using a finite-length plastic hinge beam model and a bilinear constitutive law with deterioration, and are subjected to multiple mainshock-aftershock seismic sequences. For the three buildings analyzed herein, it is shown that the structural reliability under a single seismic event can be significantly different from that under a sequence of seismic events. The reliability-based robustness indicator used shows that the structural robustness is influenced by the extent by which a structure can distribute damage.

Preliminary results and documentation of sediment core CRP-1 from the Ross Sea off Cape Roberts, Antarctica

The first hole of the Cape Roberts Project, CRP-1, was drilled in October, 1997, to a depth of 148 metres below the sea floor (mbsf) before being terminated unexpectedly the loss of fast sea-ice seaward of the rig following a severe storm. The site lies in 150 m of water at 77.008°S and 163.755°E, 16 km off Cape Roberts. This part of the report outlines the geologic setting, a gently tilted sequence near the margin of the Victoria Land Basin, and describes the history of the growth of sea ice, which provided the drilling platform, as well as the history of the drilling itself. Core recovery was around 77% in soft and brittle strata to 100 m and 98% below that. The sequence was found to comprise a Quaternary glacigenic interval down to 43.55 mbsf and below this an early Miocene interval that was also glacigenic. Core properties that were studied include fracture patterns, porosity, sonic velocity and magnetic susceptibility. Velocity in particular was useful in relating the cored sequence to the regional seismic stratigraphy. A preliminary assessment suggests that the bottom of the hole is 15 m short of the boundary between seismic sequences V3 and V4. Analytical facilities new to the Antarctic and used for processing samples for the project are described here and include a bench top palynological processing system and a palaeomagnetic laboratory. The core management and sampling system, which recorded over 2000 samples, is also outlined.

Sediment composition and sedimentation rates of four Holes in ODP Leg 166

To date, work on the Great Bahama Bank's western, leeward margin has centred chiefly on seismic-scale expressions of carbonate sequences and systems tracts. However, periplatform, slope sediments also exhibit very well developed cyclicity on scales of decimetres to several metres. It is these small-scale, high-frequency cycles within the larger-scale facies successions of the Quaternary which form the main topic of this paper. Previous studies have shown that the small-scale cycles correlate to the orbitally forced, high-frequency sea-level changes. Therefore these cycles should indicate how sea level has affected the slope development and thus platform-margin evolution during this period. Through detailed, high-resolution sequence stratigraphy of the Great Bahama Bank's leeward margin, obtained via delta18O isotope and mineralogical (XRD) analyses, confined by U/Th dating and nannofossil bioevents, a greater understanding of the bedding geometries within the Pleistocene-Holocene seismic sequences and clues as to the nature of the slope development has been achieved. The high-resolution seismic profiles indicate that since the Plio-Pleistocene change in geometry, in which the Great Bahama Bank developed into a rimmed platform, continued steepening and subsequent progradation of the leeward margin has typified slope development during the Quaternary, which is described as an accretionary slope. However, on the basis of our observations we conclude that only the early to lower middle Pleistocene section (isotope stages 45-20) and the Holocene (isotope stage 1) of the leeward margin is accretionary. This indicates that a degree of erosion and/or by-passing has occurred on the leeward margin since the lower middle Pleistocene (isotope stage 19). During the first part of this period (isotope stages 19-12) erosion and/or by-passing occurred in the middle to lower slope regions and toe-of-slope. By the end of the upper middle to late Pleistocene phase (isotope stages 11-2) erosion also occurred on the upper slope. This erosion by currents at the toe-of-slope and oversteepening of the upper and middle slopes have led to back-cutting upslope and resulted in the progressive retreat of the toe-of-slope towards the platform to the east. However, the rise in sea level since the Last Glacial Maximum to its present-day level has allowed high productivity on the platform top during the Holocene and the deposition of a thick sediment wedge on the slope and sedimentation across the entire leeward flanks. This has led to the redevelopment of an accretionary slope and continued westward progradation of the Great Bahama Bank's western, leeward margin.

The Southern Ischia canyon system: examples of deep sea depositional systems on the continental slope off Campania (Italy)

The Southern Ischia canyon system has been investigated in detail through Multibeam bathymetry and Sparker seismic data and has been put in the geological framework of the deep sea depositional systems off the Campania region. The geological and geomorphological characteristics of the canyon system have been also compared with the characters of the Mediterranean submarine canyons and with the deep sea depositional systems of the Tyrrhenian sea. The Southern Ischia canyon system engraves a narrow continental shelf from Punta Imperatore to Punta San Pancrazio, being limited southwestwards from the relict volcanic edifice of the Ischia Bank. It consists of twenty-two drainage axes, whose planimetric trending has been reconstructed in a sketch morphological map realized through the geological interpretation of Multibeam bathymetry. While the eastern boundary of the canyon system is controlled by extensional tectonics, being limited by a NE-SW trending (anti-Apenninic) normal fault, its western boundary is controlled by volcanism, due to the growth of the Ischia volcanic bank. Submarine gravitational instabilities also acted in relationships to the canyon system, allowing for the individuation of large-scale creeping at the sea bottom and hummocky deposits already interpreted as debris avalanche deposits. Quaternary marine seismic sequences have been reconstructed through a densely spaced seismic grid recorded through a Sparker multitip seismic source, allowing for a detailed observation of steep erosional slopes occurring on the southern flank of the island and related deep sea depositional systems. Important implications of this study will regard the coastal monitoring and beach nourishment of the southern flank of the island, being involved by a strong erosion of marine and coastal systems.

Geological Evolution of Coastal and Marine Environments off the Campania Continental Shelf Through Marine Geological Mapping - The Example of the Cilento Promontory

The geological evolution of coastal and marine environments offshore the Cilento Promontory through marine geological mapping is discussed here. The marine geological map n. 502 “Agropoli,” located offshore the Cilento Promontory (southern Italy), is described and put in regional geologic setting. The study area covers water depths ranging between 30 and 200 m isobaths. The geologic map has been constructed in the frame of a research program financed by the National Geological Survey of Italy (CARG Project), finalized to the construction of an up-to-date cartography of the Campania region. Geological and geophysical data on the continental shelf and slope offshore the southern Campania region have been acquired in an area bounded northward by the Gulf of Salerno and southward by the Gulf of Policastro. A high-resolution multibeam bathymetry has permitted the construction of a digital elevation model (DEM). Sidescan sonar profiles have also been collected and interpreted, and their merging with bathymetric data has allowed for the realization of the base for the marine geologic cartography. The calibration of geophysical data has been attempted through sea-bottom samples. The morpho-structures and the seismic sequences overlying the outcrops of acoustic basement reported in the cartographic representation have been studied in detail using single-channel seismics. The interpretation of seismic profiles has been a support for the reconstruction of the stratigraphic and structural setting of the Quaternary continental shelf successions and the outcrops of rocky acoustic basement in correspondence to the Licosa Cape morphostructural high. These areas result from the seaward prolongation of the stratigraphic and structural units, widely cropping out in the surrounding emerged sector of the Cilento Promontory. The cartographic approach is based on the recognition of laterally coeval depositional systems, interpreted in the frame of system tracts of the Late Quaternary depositional sequence.

Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Seismic reflectivity of the sediment-covered seafloor: Effects of velocity gradients and fine-scale layering

Knowledge of the reflectivity of the sediment-covered seabed is of significant importance to marine seismic data acquisition and interpretation as it governs the generation of reverberations in the water layer. In this context pertinent, but largely unresolved, questions concern the importance of the typically very prominent vertical seismic velocity gradients as well as the potential presence and magnitude of anisotropy in soft surficial seabed sediments. To address these issues, we explore the seismic properties of granulometric end-member-type clastic sedimentary seabed models consisting of sand, silt, and clay as well as scale-invariant stochastic layer sequences of these components characterized by realistic vertical gradients of the P- and S-wave velocities. Using effective media theory, we then assess the nature and magnitude of seismic anisotropy associated with these models. Our results indicate that anisotropy is rather benign for P-waves, and that the S-wave velocities in the axial directions differ only slightly. Because of the very high P- to S-wave velocity ratios in the vicinity of the seabed our models nevertheless suggest that S-wave triplications may occur at very small incidence angles. To numerically evaluate the P-wave reflection coefficient of our seabed models, we apply a frequency-slowness technique to the corresponding synthetic seismic wavefields. Comparison with analytical plane-wave reflection coefficients calculated for corresponding isotropic elastic half-space models shows that the differences tend to be most pronounced in the vicinity of the elastic equivalent of the critical angle as well as in the post-critical range. We also find that the presence of intrinsic anisotropy in the clay component of our layered models tends to dramatically reduce the overall magnitude of the P-wave reflection coefficient as well as its variation with incidence angle.

Dinocyst biochronology and palynofacies : inferred systems tract character of Miocene sequences from New Jersey mid-Atlantic transect (ODP legs 174A and 174AX) /

One of the main objectives of the mid-Atlantic transect is to improve dating resolution of sequences and unconfonnity surfaces. Dinoflagellate cysts from two Ocean Drilling Program boreholes, the onshore Leg 174AX Ocean View Site and Leg 174A continental shelf Site 1071, are used to provide age estimates for sequences and unconfonnities fonned on the New Jersey continental margin during the Miocene epoch. Despite the occasional lack of dinocysts in barren and oxidized sections, dinocyst biochronology still offers greater age control than that provided by other microfossils in marginal marine environments. An early Miocene to late Miocene chronology based on ages detennined for the two study sites is presented. In addition, .palynofacies are used to unravel the systems tract character of the Miocene sequences and provide insight into the effects of taphonomy and preservation of palynomorphs in marginal marine and shelf environments under different ~ea level conditions. More precise placement of maximum flooding surfaces is possible through the identification of condensed sections and palynofacies shifts can also reveal subaerially exposed sections and surfaces not apparent in seismic or lithological analyses. The problems with the application of the pollen record in the interpretation of Miocene climate are also discussed. Palynomorphs provide evidence for a second-order lowering of sea level during the Miocene, onto which higher order sea level fluctuations are super-imposed. Correlation of sequences and unconfonnities is attempted between onshore boreholes and from the onshore Ocean View borehole to offshore Site 1071.

The intraplate Porto dos Gauchos seismic zone in the Amazon craton - Brazil

The largest earthquake observed in the stable continental interior of the South American plate occurred in Serra do Tombador, Mato Grosso state - Brazil, on January 31,1955 with a magnitude of 6.2 m(b). Since then no other earthquake has been located near the 1955 epicentre. However, in Porto dos Gauchos, 100 km northeast of Serra do Tombador, a recurrent seismicity has been observed since 1959. Both Serra do Tombador and Porto dos Gauchos are located in the Phanerozoic Parecis basin. Two magnitude 5 earthquakes occurred in Porto dos Gauchos, in 1998 and 2005, with intensities up to VI and V, respectively. These two main shocks were followed by aftershock sequences lasting more than three years each. Local seismic stations have been deployed by the Seismological Observatory of the University of Brasilia since 1998 to study the ""Porto dos Gauchos"" seismic zone (PGSZ). A local seismic refraction survey was carried out with two explosions to help define the seismic velocity model. Both the 1998 and 2005 earthquake sequences occurred in the same WSW-ENE oriented fault zone with right-lateral strike-slip mechanisms. The epicentral zone is in the Parecis basin, near its northern border where there are buried grabens, generally trending WNW-ESE, such as the deep Mesoproterozoic Caiabis graben which lies partly beneath the Parecis basin. However, the epicentral distribution indicates that the 1998 and 2005 sequences are related to a N60 degrees E fault which probably crosses the entire Caiabis graben. The 1955 earthquake, despite the uncertainty in its epicentre, does not seem to be directly related to any buried graben either. The seismicity in the Porto dos Gauchos seismic zone, therefore, is not directly related to rifted crust. The probable direction of the maximum horizontal stress near Porto dos Gauchos is roughly E-W, consistent with other focal mechanisms further south in the Pantanal basin and Paraguay. but seems to be different from the NW-SE direction observed further north in the Amazon basin. The recurrent seismicity observed in Porto dos Gauchos, and the large 1955 earthquake nearby, make this area of the Parecis basin one of the most important seismic zones of Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.