Seismic activity triggered by water wells in the Parana Basin, Brazil

Triggered seismicity is commonly associated with deep water reservoirs or injection wells where water is injected at high pressure into the reservoir rock. However, earth tremors related solely to the opening of groundwater wells are extremely rare. Here we present a clear case of seismicity induced by pore-pressure changes following the drilling of water wells that exploit a confined aquifer in the intracratonic Parana Basin of southeastern Brazil. Since 2004, shallow seismic activity, with magnitudes up to 2.9 and intensities V MM, has been observed near deep wells (120-200 m) that were drilled in early 2003 near the town of Bebedouro. The wells were drilled for irrigation purposes, cross a sandstone layer about 60-80 m thick and extract water from a confined aquifer in fractured zones between basalt flow layers. Seismic activity, mainly event swarms, has occurred yearly since 2004, mostly during the rainy season when the wells are not pumped. During the dry season when the wells are pumped almost continuously, the activity is very low. A seismographic network, installed in March 2005, has located more than 2000 microearthquakes. The events are less than 1 km deep (mostly within the 0.5 km thick basalt layer) and cover an area roughly 1.5 km x 5 km across. The seismicity generally starts in a small area and expands to larger distances with an equivalent hydraulic diffusivity ranging from 0.06 to 0.6 m(2)/s. Geophysical and geothermal logging of several wells in the area showed that water from the shallow sandstone aquifer enters the well at the top and usually forms waterfalls. The waterfalls flow down the sides of the wells and feed the confined, fractured aquifer in the basalt layer at the bottom. Two seismic areas are observed: the main area surrounds several wells that are pumped continuously during the dry season, and a second area near another well (about 10 km from the first area) that is not used for irrigation and not pumped regularly. The main area displays cyclic annual activity, but the second area does not. We explain the earthquake swarms as being triggered by pore pressure diffusion in the fractured basalt layer due to additional pressure from the newly connected surface aquifer. This reaches critically prestressed areas up to a few kilometers away from the wells. During periods of continuous pumping, the reduction of pore pressure in the confined aquifer stops the seismic activity. Our study suggests that this kind of activity may be more common than previously thought and implies that many other cases of small tremors associated with the drilling of water wells may have gone unnoticed.

Geothermal investigations in an area of induced seismic activity, northern São Paulo State, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Seismic Activity Rates in the Iberian Peninsula

Evaluating the seismic hazard requires establishing a distribution of the seismic activity rate, irrespective of the methodology used in the evaluation. In practice, how that activity rate is established tends to be the main difference between the various evaluation methods. The traditional procedure relies on a seismogenic zonation and the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) hypothesis. Competing zonations are often compared looking only at the geometry of the zones, but the resulting activity rate is affected by both geometry and the values assigned to the GR parameters. Contour plots can be used for conducting more meaningful comparisons, providing the GR parameters are suitably normalised. More recent approaches for establishing the seismic activity rate forego the use of zones and GR statistics and special attention is paid here to such procedures. The paper presents comparisons between the local activity rates that result for the complete Iberian Peninsula using kernel estimators as well as two seismogenic zonations. It is concluded that the smooth variation of the seismic activity rate produced by zoneless methods is more realistic than the stepwise changes associated with zoned approaches; moreover, the choice of zonation often has a stronger influence on the results than its fairly subjective origin would warrant. It is also observed that the activity rate derived from the kernel approach, related with the GR parameter “a”, is qualitatively consistent with the epicentres in the catalogue. Finally, when comparing alternative zonations it is not just their geometry but the distribution of activity rate that should be compared.

A study on seismicity and seismic hazard for Karnataka State

This paper presents a detailed study on the seismic pattern of the state of Karnataka and also quantifies the seismic hazard for the entire state. In the present work, historical and instrumental seismicity data for Karnataka (within 300 km from Karnataka political boundary) were compiled and hazard analysis was done based on this data. Geographically, Karnataka forms a part of peninsular India which is tectonically identified as an intraplate region of Indian plate. Due to the convergent movement of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate, movements are occurring along major intraplate faults resulting in seismic activity of the region and hence the hazard assessment of this region is very important. Apart from referring to seismotectonic atlas for identifying faults and fractures, major lineaments in the study area were also mapped using satellite data. The earthquake events reported by various national and international agencies were collected until 2009. Declustering of earthquake events was done to remove foreshocks and aftershocks. Seismic hazard analysis was done for the state of Karnataka using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches incorporating logic tree methodology. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) at rock level was evaluated for the entire state considering a grid size of 0.05A degrees x 0.05A degrees. The attenuation relations proposed for stable continental shield region were used in evaluating the seismic hazard with appropriate weightage factors. Response spectra at rock level for important Tier II cities and Bangalore were evaluated. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values at bedrock are presented in this work.

Development of open models and tools for seismic risk assessment: application to Portugal

The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.

Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Reassessing the earthquake hazard in Kerala based on the historical and current seismicity

Given the lack of proper constraints in understanding earthquake mechanisms in the cratonic interiors and the general absence of good quality database, here we reassess the seismic hazard in the province of Kerala, a part of the aEuro cent stable continental interioraEuro cent, based on an improved historical and instrumental database. The temporal pattern of the current seismicity suggests that > 60% of the microtremors in Kerala occurs with a time lag after the peak rainfall, indicating that hydroseismicity may be a plausible model to explain the low-level seismicity in this region. Further, an increment in overall seismicity rate in the region in the recent years is explained as due to increased anthropogenic activities, which includes changes in hydrological pathways as a consequence of rapid landscape changes. Our analyses of the historical database eliminate a few events that are ascribed to this region; this exercise has also led to identification of a few events, not previously noted. The improved historical database essentially suggests that the central midland region is more prone to seismic activity compared to other parts of Kerala. This region appears to have generated larger number of significant earthquakes; the most prominent being the multiple events (doublets) of 1856 and 1953, whose magnitudes are comparable to that of the 2000/2001 (central Kerala) events. Occurrences of these historical events and the recent earthquakes, and the local geology indicative of pervasive faulting as shown by widely distributed pseudotachylite veins suggest that the NNW-SSE trending faults in central midland Kerala may host discrete potentially active sources that may be capable of generating light to moderate size earthquakes. The frequency of earthquakes in central Kerala evident from the historical database requires that the seismic codes stipulated for this region are made mandatory.

An approach to palaeoseismicity in the Olkiluoto (sea) area during the early Holocene

Olkiluoto Island is situated in the northern Baltic Sea, near the southwestern coast of Finland, and is the proposed location of a spent nuclear fuel repository. This study examined Holocene palaeoseismicity in the Olkiluoto area and in the surrounding sea areas by computer simulations together with acoustic-seismic, sedimentological and dating methods. The most abundant rock type on the island is migmatic mica gneiss, intruded by tonalites, granodiorites and granites. The surrounding Baltic Sea seabed consists of Palaeoproterozoic crystalline bedrock, which is to a great extent covered by younger Mesoproterozoic sedimentary rocks. The area contains several ancient deep-seated fracture zones that divide it into bedrock blocks. The response of bedrock at the Olkiluoto site was modelled considering four future ice-age scenarios. Each scenario produced shear displacements of fractures with different times of occurrence and varying recovery rates. Generally, the larger the maximum ice load, the larger were the permanent shear displacements. For a basic case, the maximum shear displacements were a few centimetres at the proposed nuclear waste repository level, at proximately 500 m b.s.l. High-resolution, low-frequency echo-sounding was used to examine the Holocene submarine sedimentary structures and possible direct and indirect indicators of palaeoseismic activity in the northern Baltic Sea. Echo-sounding profiles of Holocene submarine sediments revealed slides and slumps, normal faults, debris flows and turbidite-type structures. The profiles also showed pockmarks and other structures related to gas or groundwater seepages, which might be related to fracture zone activation. Evidence of postglacial reactivation in the study area was derived from the spatial occurrence of some of the structures, especial the faults and the seepages, in the vicinity of some old bedrock fracture zones. Palaeoseismic event(s) (a single or several events) in the Olkiluoto area were dated and the palaeoenvironment was characterized using palaeomagnetic, biostratigraphical and lithostratigraphical methods, enhancing the reliability of the chronology. Combined lithostratigraphy, biostratigraphy and palaeomagnetic stratigraphy revealed an age estimation of 10 650 to 10 200 cal. years BP for the palaeoseismic event(s). All Holocene sediment faults in the northern Baltic Sea occur at the same stratigraphical level, the age of which is estimated at 10 700 cal. years BP (9500 radiocarbon years BP). Their movement is suggested to have been triggered by palaeoseismic event(s) when the Late Weichselian ice sheet was retreating from the site and bedrock stresses were released along the bedrock fracture zones. Since no younger or repeated traces of seismic events were found, it corroborates the suggestion that the major seismic activity occurred within a short time during and after the last deglaciation. The origin of the gas/groundwater seepages remains unclear. Their reflections in the echo-sounding profiles imply that part of the gas is derived from the organic-bearing Litorina and modern gyttja clays. However, at least some of the gas is derived from the bedrock. Additional information could be gained by pore water analysis from the pockmarks. Information on postglacial fault activation and possible gas and/or fluid discharges under high hydraulic heads has relevance in evaluating the safety assessment of a planned spent nuclear fuel repository in the region.

Recent microtremors near the Idukki Reservoir, Kerala, South India

The continuing low-level seismicity in the vicinity of the Idukki Reservoir, Kerala, is interesting from the perspective of hydrologically triggered earthquakes. While the frequency of triggered earthquakes in the vicinity of a reservoir usually reduces with time and the largest earthquake usually occurs within a few years on the initial filling, the triggered seismicity in the proximity of the Idukki Reservoir seems to be showing a second, delayed peak, as the 1977 (M 3.5) tremor was followed by a slightly larger event in 2011, 24 years after the first burst of activity. Quite unprecedented in the context of reservoir-triggered sequences, we consider this delayed sequence as the hydrologic response of a critically stressed hypocentral region, to monsoonal recharging. The sustained activity several decades after the impoundment and the temporal relation with the monsoon suggest that at least some parts of the reservoir region continue to retain the potential for low-level seismic activity in response to hydrologic cycles.

Spatial variation of seismicity parameters across India and adjoining areas

An attempt has been made to quantify the variability in the seismic activity rate across the whole of India and adjoining areas (0–45°N and 60–105°E) using earthquake database compiled from various sources. Both historical and instrumental data were compiled and the complete catalog of Indian earthquakes till 2010 has been prepared. Region-specific earthquake magnitude scaling relations correlating different magnitude scales were achieved to develop a homogenous earthquake catalog for the region in unified moment magnitude scale. The dependent events (75.3%) in the raw catalog have been removed and the effect of aftershocks on the variation of b value has been quantified. The study area was divided into 2,025 grid points (1°91°) and the spatial variation of the seismicity across the region have been analyzed considering all the events within 300 km radius from each grid point. A significant decrease in seismic b value was seen when declustered catalog was used which illustrates that a larger proportion of dependent events in the earthquake catalog are related to lower magnitude events. A list of 203,448 earth- quakes (including aftershocks and foreshocks) occurred in the region covering the period from 250 B.C. to 2010 A.D. with all available details is uploaded in the website http://www.civil.iisc.ernet.in/*sreevals/resource.htm.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

I. A seismotectonic study of the Middle America Subduction Zone. II. Lithosphere and upper mantle structure of the Canadian Shield and Eastern North America

This thesis consists of two separate parts. Part I (Chapter 1) is concerned with seismotectonics of the Middle America subduction zone. In this chapter, stress distribution and Benioff zone geometry are investigated along almost 2000 km of this subduction zone, from the Rivera Fracture Zone in the north to Guatemala in the south. Particular emphasis is placed on the effects on stress distribution of two aseismic ridges, the Tehuantepec Ridge and the Orozco Fracture Zone, which subduct at seismic gaps. Stress distribution is determined by studying seismicity distribution, and by analysis of 190 focal mechanisms, both new and previously published, which are collected here. In addition, two recent large earthquakes that have occurred near the Tehuantepec Ridge and the Orozco Fracture Zone are discussed in more detail. A consistent stress release pattern is found along most of the Middle America subduction zone: thrust events at shallow depths, followed down-dip by an area of low seismic activity, followed by a zone of normal events at over 175 km from the trench and 60 km depth. The zone of low activity is interpreted as showing decoupling of the plates, and the zone of normal activity as showing the breakup of the descending plate. The portion of subducted lithosphere containing the Orozco Fracture Zone does not differ significantly, in Benioff zone geometry or in stress distribution, from adjoining segments. The Playa Azul earthquake of October 25, 1981, M_s=7.3, occurred in this area. Body and surface wave analysis of this event shows a simple source with a shallow thrust mechanism and gives M_o=1.3x10²⁷ dyne-cm. A stress drop of about 45 bars is calculated; this is slightly higher than that of other thrust events in this subduction zone. In the Tehuantepec Ridge area, only minor differences in stress distribution are seen relative to adjoining segments. For both ridges, the only major difference from adjoining areas is the infrequency or lack of occurrence of large interplate thrust events.

Part II involves upper mantle P wave structure studies, for the Canadian shield and eastern North America. In Chapter 2, the P wave structure of the Canadian shield is determined through forward waveform modeling of the phases P_nl, P, and PP. Effects of lateral heterogeneity are kept to a minimum by using earthquakes just outside the shield as sources, with propagation paths largely within the shield. Previous mantle structure studies have used recordings of P waves in the upper mantle triplication range of 15-30°; however, the lack of large earthquakes in the shield region makes compilation of a complete P wave dataset difficult. By using the phase PP, which undergoes triplications at 30-60°, much more information becomes available. The WKBJ technique is used to calculate synthetic seismograms for PP, and these records are modeled almost as well as the P. A new velocity model, designated S25, is proposed for the Canadian shield. This model contains a thick, high-Q, high-velocity lid to 165 km and a deep low-velocity zone. These features combine to produce seismograms that are markedly different from those generated by other shield structure models. The upper mantle discontinuities in S25 are placed at 405 and 660 km, with a simple linear gradient in velocity between them. Details of the shape of the discontinuities are not well constrained. Below 405 km, this model is not very different from many proposed P wave models for both shield and tectonic regions.

Chapter 3 looks in more detail at recordings of P_nl in eastern North America. First, seismograms from four eastern North American earthquakes are analyzed, and seismic moments for the events are calculated. These earthquakes are important in that they are among the largest to have occurred in eastern North America in the last thirty years, yet in some cases were not large enough to produce many good long-period teleseismic records. A simple layer-over-a-halfspace model is used for the initial modeling, and is found to provide an excellent fit for many features of the observed waveforms. The effects on P_nl of varying lid structure are then investigated. A thick lid with a positive gradient in velocity, such as that proposed for the Canadian shield in Chapter 2, will have a pronounced effect on the waveforms, beginning at distances of 800 or 900 km. P_nl records from the same eastern North American events are recalculated for several lid structure models, to survey what kinds of variations might be seen. For several records it is possible to see likely effects of lid structure in the data. However, the dataset is too sparse to make any general observations about variations in lid structure. This type of modeling is expected to be important in the future, as the analysis is extended to more recent eastern North American events, and as broadband instruments make more high-quality regional recordings available.