954 resultados para Secular trend
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This study examined the development of fatness, as indexed by skinfold thickness, in healthy Caucasian children and adolescents residing in the same location in Canada in the 1960s and the 1990s. The data comes from two longitudinal studies, conducted approximately 30 years apart, of children aged 8-16 years. The first study (1964-1973) annually measured 207 males and 140 females. The second investigation (1991-1997) repeatedly measured 113 males and 115 females. Identical measurement tools and protocols were used for height, body mass, and skinfolds. Maturational age was estimated as a measure in years from age of peak height velocity. Males from the second investigation matured significantly (P < 0.05) earlier. Multilevel regression modeling was utilized to determine developmental curves for the individuals within the two populations. When differences in height, body mass, and maturity were controlled, skinfold thicknesses of the males and females in the second study were significantly greater (P < 0.05) than age- and sex-matched peers in the first study. This was not seen in models of the BMI. The results suggest that when maturity and size were controlled, the fatness of children and adolescents increased over 30 years. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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In order to create safer schools, the Chilean authorities published a Standard regarding school furniture dimensions. The aims of this study are twofold: to verify the existence of positive secular trend within the Chilean student population and to evaluate the potential mismatch between the anthropometric characteristics and the school furniture dimensions defined by the mentioned standard. The sample consists of 3078 subjects. Eight anthropometric measures were gathered, together with six furniture dimensions from the mentioned standard. There is an average increase for some dimensions within the Chilean student population over the past two decades. Accordingly, almost 18% of the students will find the seat height to be too high. Seat depth will be considered as being too shallow for 42.8% of the students. It can be concluded that the Chilean student population has increased in stature, which supports the need to revise and update the data from the mentioned Standard. Practitioner Summary: Positive secular trend resulted in high levels of mismatch if furniture is selected according to the current Chilean Standard which uses data collected more than 20 years ago. This study shows that school furniture standards need to be updated over time.
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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física
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Lead (Pb) is recognized as one of the most toxic metals. Sources of Pb exposure have been widely documented in North America, and the removal of Pb additives from gasoline was reflected in a dramatic lowering of blood Pb concentration. In Latin America, the removal of Pb from gasoline resulted in decreased exposure, but Pb levels in many areas remain high due to occupational and environmental sources of exposure. While many of the Pb sources have been identified (mining, industries, battery recycling, lead-based paint, ceramics), new ones occasionally crop up. Here we report on blood Pb (B-Pb) levels in remote riverside communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Blood Pb (B-Pb) levels were determined in 448 persons from 12 villages of the Lower Tapajos River Basin, Par, Brazil. Socio-demographic and dietary information, as well as occupational, residential and medical history was collected using an interview-administered questionnaire. B-Pb, measured by ICP-MS, showed elevated concentrations. Mean B-Pb was 13.1 mu g/dL +/- 8.5, median B-Pb was 11.2 mu g/dL and ranged from 0.59 to 48.3 mu g/dL. Men had higher B-Pb compared to women (median: 15.3 mu g/dL vs 7.9 mu g/dL respectively). B-Pb increased with age for women, while it decreased for men. For both genders, B-Pb decreased with education. There were significant differences between villages. Exploratory analyses, using linear partition models, showed that for men B-Pb was lower among those who were involved in cattle-raising, and higher among those who hunted, farmed and fished. The distribution profile of B-Pb directed us towards artisanal transformation of manioc to flour (farinha), which requires heating in a large metal pan, with stirring primarily done by young men. In the village with the highest B-Pb, analysis of Pb concentrations (dry weight) of manioc (prior to transformation) and farinha (following transformation) from 6 houses showed a tenfold increase in Pb concentration (mean: 0.017 +/- 0.016 to 0.19 +/- 0.10 mu g/g). This was confirmed in one of these villages where we sampled manioc paste Oust before roasting) and the roasted farinha (0.05 mu g/g vs 0.20 mu g/g). While there may be other sources (ammunition, sinkers for fishing nets), the high concentrations in farinha, a dietary staple, assuredly makes an important contribution. Further action needs to reduce Pb sources in this region. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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By 1997, an open cohort of 1,652 live newborn of 1,637 mothers with gestational toxoplasmosis had been recruited in the Campania region to monitor the burden of congenital toxoplasmosis (CT). Of the 1,556 mother-child pairs that completed the follow up, 92 definite cases were detected, yielding a 5.9% (4.8-7.1 95% CI) transmission rate. The onset was patent for 43% of patients and sensorineural complications were shown for a further 15% of subclinical onset patients later than two years of age. The overall prevalence of toxoplasmosis during gestation was 2.46 of 1,000 deliveries, while the prevalence of definite CT was 1.38 of 10,000 live newborns. However, there is still room for intervention, as only 23% of the maternal diagnoses were proven through seroconversion, 63 of the late-gestation seroconverters remained untreated, and six probable CT diagnoses were made following referrals due to patent sequelae and born during the study period. There was a positive secular trend on the rates of infant referral and definite CT diagnosis, according to the live birth rate (Ç2 for trend < 0.001). Extension of this surveillance system across the country could help to define a future strategy for prevention.
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BACKGROUND: Many countries have introduced legislations for public smoking bans to reduce the harmful effects of exposure to tobacco smoke. Smoking bans cause significant reductions in admissions for acute coronary syndromes but their impact on respiratory diseases is unclear. In Geneva, Switzerland, two popular votes led to a stepwise implementation of a state smoking ban in public places, with a temporary suspension. This study evaluated the effect of this smoking ban on hospitalisations for acute respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. METHODS: This before and after intervention study was conducted at the University Hospitals of Geneva, Switzerland, across 4 periods with different smoking legislations. It included 5,345 patients with a first hospitalisation for acute coronary syndrome, ischemic stroke, acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia and acute asthma. The main outcomes were the incidence rate ratios (IRR) of admissions for each diagnosis after the final ban compared to the pre-ban period and adjusted for age, gender, season, influenza epidemic and secular trend. RESULTS: Hospitalisations for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease significantly decreased over the 4 periods and were lowest after the final ban (IRR = 0.54 [95%CI: 0.42-0.68]). We observed a trend in reduced admissions for acute coronary syndromes (IRR = 0.90 [95%CI: 0.80-1.00]). Admissions for ischemic stroke, asthma and pneumonia did not significantly change. CONCLUSIONS: A legislative smoking ban was followed by a strong decrease in hospitalisations for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and a trend for reduced admissions for acute coronary syndrome. Smoking bans are likely to be very beneficial for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
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BACKGROUND: We assessed the impact of a multicomponent worksite health promotion program for0 reducing cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) with short intervention, adjusting for regression towards the mean (RTM) affecting such nonexperimental study without control group. METHODS: A cohort of 4,198 workers (aged 42 +/- 10 years, range 16-76 years, 27% women) were analyzed at 3.7-year interval and stratified by each CVRF risk category (low/medium/high blood pressure [BP], total cholesterol [TC], body mass index [BMI], and smoking) with RTM and secular trend adjustments. Intervention consisted of 15 min CVRF screening and individualized counseling by health professionals to medium- and high-risk individuals, with eventual physician referral. RESULTS: High-risk groups participants improved diastolic BP (-3.4 mm Hg [95%CI: -5.1, -1.7]) in 190 hypertensive patients, TC (-0.58 mmol/l [-0.71, -0.44]) in 693 hypercholesterolemic patients, and smoking (-3.1 cig/day [-3.9, -2.3]) in 808 smokers, while systolic BP changes reflected RTM. Low-risk individuals without counseling deteriorated TC and BMI. Body weight increased uniformly in all risk groups (+0.35 kg/year). CONCLUSIONS: In real-world conditions, short intervention program participants in high-risk groups for diastolic BP, TC, and smoking improved their CVRF, whereas low-risk TC and BMI groups deteriorated. Future programs may include specific advises to low-risk groups to maintain a favorable CVRF profile.
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Este trabajo pretendió retomar la idea del consumo de productos culturales al preguntarse específicamente por el consumo de cine de Hollywood en Bogotá entre 1925 y 1946. Se trata de mirar cómo fue el consumo del cine de Hollywood de los bogotanos de las primeras décadas del siglo XX y se centra en todas aquellas películas producidas en Estados Unidos de carácter comercial. Para mostrar cómo ese consumo de cine no es pasivo, este trabajo se enfocó en cómo entendieron y vieron cine de Hollywood dos grupos de personas, teniendo en cuenta una tipología que establece Ricardo Arias, en las cuales se divide a parte de la población bogotana en individuos católicos radicales e individuos de tendencia laica liberal. Lo que se propone mostrar es que a pesar de las diferencias existentes entre los dos grupos, la visión que construyeron con respecto a estas películas no fue tan diferente, pues ambos grupos descalificaron al cine por ser una tecnología degradante que estaba supeditada a los intereses de una industria.
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This article investigates fiscal policy responses to the Great Recession in historical perspective. We explore general trends in the frequency, size and composition of fiscal stimulus as well as the impact of government partisanship on fiscal policy outputs during the four international recessions of 1980-81, 1990-91, 2001-02 and 2008-09. Encompassing 17-23 OECD countries, our analysis calls into question the idea of a general retreat from fiscal policy activism since the early 1980s. The propensity of governments to respond to economic downturns by engaging in fiscal stimulus has increased over time and we do not observe any secular trend in the size of stimulus measures. At the same time, OECD governments have relied more on tax cuts to stimulate demand in the two recessions of the 2000s than they did in the early 1980s or early 1990s. Regarding government partisanship, we do not find any significant direct partisan effects on either the size or the composition of fiscal stimulus for any of the four recession episodes. However, the size of the welfare state conditioned the impact of government partisanship in the two recessions of the 2000s, with Left-leaning governments distinctly more prone to engage in discretionary fiscal stimulus and/or spending increases in large welfare states, but not in small welfare states.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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The organic carbon isotopic record of the sapropels(S1 and S3-S10) and intercalated marl oozes has been determined in a 12-m piston core from the eastern Mediterranean. The d13C_organic values are systematically lighter (mean=-21.0±0.82 per mil) in all sapropels and heavier (mean=-18.8±1.07 per mil) in the marl oozes. These differences are not due to variable marine and terrestrial organic matter mixtures because all values are heavier than modern plankton in the Mediterranean, there is no relationship between the C_organic/N ratios and the isotopic values, and published information on the abundance and distribution of organic biomarkers shows that terrestrial material constitutes a minor fraction of the total organic matter. Temperature effects on isotope fractionation are also discounted because the change in d13C_organic values between glacial and interglacial horizons is in the opposite sense. Diagenesis, which can produce relatively small changes in the carbon isotopic composition of sedimentary organic matter under certain circumstances, is unlikely to have caused the observed differences because this mechanism would cause an enrichmet in 12C, implying that all values were even heavier originally, and there is no secular trend in the d13C_organic record. The observed differences in d13C_organic between the two lithologies are probably produced by changes in the isotopic composition and the concentration of dissolved CO2. First, freshwater flooding during the formation of the sapropels caused the isotopic composition of the dissolved inorganic carbon in the surface waters of the Mediterranean to become lighter because of the 13C deficiency in fresh waters. Hence photosynthesis would have produced isotopically lighter organic material. Second, changes in atmospheric pCO2 between glacial and interglacial periods, as shown by the Vostok ice core, caused marked changes in the concentration of free dissolved CO2 in the mixed layer; lower values during glacial maxima caused a smaller fractionation of the carbon isotopes by phytoplankton, whereas levels were less limiting during the interglacials. Concentrations of dissolved CO2 could also have been much higher during the deposition of the sapropels because of the supply of regenerated CO2 to the mixed layer by upwelling, and this could have further lightened the d13C_organic values in the sapropels themselves. Carbon isotope records may provide an alternative method for estimating atmospheric pCO2 levels over longer time periods than can be obtained from ice cores.
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In the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the variability in a sub-seasonally resolved microatoll Porites colony Sr/Ca record from Tonga and a previously published high-resolution record from Fiji are strongly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) over the calibration period from 1981 to 2004 (R^2 = 0.67 - 0.68). However, the Sr/Ca-derived SST correlation to instrumental SST decreases back in time. The lower frequency secular trend (~1°C) and decadal-scale (~2 - 3°C) modes in Sr/Ca-derived SST are almost two times larger than that observed in instrumental SST. The coral Sr/Ca records suggest that local effects on SST generate larger amplitude variability than gridded SST products indicate. Reconstructed d18O of seawater (d18Osw) at these sites correlate with instrumental sea surface salinity (SSS; r = 0.64 - 0.67) but not local precipitation (r = -0.10 to - 0.22) demonstrating that the advection and mixing of different salinity water masses may be the predominant control on d18Osw in this region. The Sr/Ca records indicate SST warming over the last 100 years and appears to be related to the expansion of the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) including an increasing rate of expansion in the last ~20 years. The reconstructed d18Osw over the last 100 years also shows surface water freshening across the SPCZ. The warming and freshening of the surface ocean in our study area suggests that the SPCZ has been shifting (expanding) southeast, possibly related to the southward shift and intensification of the South Pacific gyre over the last 50 years in response to strengthened westerly winds.