Essay on secular stagnation

In this paper we show that a closed economy, with a balanced budget and unable to increase public spending, can avoid or leave a persistent slump through adequate and timely combination of monetary and fiscal policy based on distortionary taxation. We use a three generations OLG New Keynesian model in which a permanent slump is possible without any self-correcting force to full-employment. Complementing recent work on Secular Stagnation using lump-sum taxation and government spending as fiscal instruments, our contribution is to use distortionary taxes over labor, consumption and capital, in a balanced budget environment with constant (or decreasing) government spending.

A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis

In this paper, we analyze the behavior of real interest rates over the long-run using historical data for nine developed economies, to assess the extent to which the recent decline observed in most advanced countries is at odds with the past data, as suggested by the Secular Stagnation hypothesis. By using data from 1703 and performing stationarity and structural breaks tests, we find that the recent decline in interest rates is not explained by a structural break in the time series. Our results also show that considering long-run data leads to different conclusions than using short-run data.

Larry Summers’ interest rate conundrum. CEPS Hi-level Brief, 16 January 2014

Larry Summers has attracted much attention recently for invoking old theories of secular stagnation to explain the persistence of low interest rates in the recent past. The German economist Carl Christian von Weizsäcker has pointed to a retirement savings glut as the cause for low rates. In the view of Thomas Mayer, however, as expressed in this High-Level Brief, these theses lack both theoretical and empirical support and he offers as an alternative explanation the fall-out from the recent credit boom-bust cycle.

Money, Finance and the Real Economy: What went wrong? CEPS Paperback, 17 March 2015

The functions of the financial system of a developed economy are often badly understood. This can largely be attributed to free-market ideology, which has spread the belief that leaving finance to its own devices would provide the best possible mechanism for allocating savings. The latest financial crisis has sparked the beginnings of a new awareness on this point, but it is far from having led to an improved understanding of the role of the financial institutions. For many people, finance remains more an enemy to be resisted than an instrument to be intelligently exploited. Its institutions, which issue and circulate money, play an important role in the working of the real economy that it would be imprudent to neglect. The allocation of savings, but also the level of activity and the growth rate depend on it. In this book, the authors carefully analyse the close links between money, finance and the real economy. In the process, they show why today the existence of a substantial potential of saving, instead of being an opportunity for the world economy, could threaten it with ‘secular stagnation’.

The new Golden Legend: Patrick Nicholas's secular saints

The work of Italian-based photo-artist Patrick Nicholas is analysed to show how his re-workings of classic ‘old-master’ paintings can be seen as the art of ‘redaction,’ shedding new light on the relationship between originality and copying. I argue that redactional creativity is both highly productive of new meanings and a reinvention of the role of the medieval Golden Legend. (Lives of the Saints).

International epidemiology of prostate cancer : geographical distribution and secular trends

This review outlines current international patterns in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates and survival, including recent trends and a discussion of the possible impact of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing on the observed data. Internationally, prostate cancer is the second most common cancer diagnosed among men (behind lung cancer), and is the sixth most common cause of cancer death among men. Prostate cancer is particularly prevalent in developed countries such as the United States and the Scandinavian countries, with about a six-fold difference between high-incidence and low-incidence countries. Interpretation of trends in incidence and survival are complicated by the increasing impact of PSA testing, particularly in more developed countries. As Western influences become more pronounced in less developed countries, prostate cancer incidence rates in those countries are tending to increase, even though the prevalence of PSA testing is relatively low. Larger proportions of younger men are being diagnosed with prostate cancer and living longer following diagnosis of prostate cancer, which has many implications for health systems. Decreasing mortality rates are becoming widespread among more developed countries, although it is not clear whether this is due to earlier diagnosis (PSA testing), improved treatment, or some combination of these or other factors.

Secular changes in BMI and obesity risk in Japanese children: Considerations from a morphologic perspective

The increasing prevalence of childhood obesity is a global health issue. Past studies in Japan have reported an increase in both body mass index (BMI) and risk of obesity among children and adolescents. However, changes in body size and proportion in this population over time have also influenced BMI. To date, no study of secular changes in childhood obesity has considered the impact of changes in morphological factors. The current study explored the secular changes in BMI and childhood obesity risk among Japanese children from 1950 to 2000 with consideration of changes in body size and the proportions using The Statistical Report of the School Health Survey (SHS). The age of peak velocity (PV) occurred approximately two years earlier in both genders across this period. While the increments in height, sitting height and sub-ischial leg length relative to height levelled off by 1980, weight gain continued in boys. Between 1980 and 2000, the rate of the upper body weight gain in boys and girls were 0.7-1.3 kg/decade and 0.2-1.0 kg/decade, respectively. After considering body proportions, increments in body weight were small. It could be suggested that the increments in weight and BMI across the 50-year period may be due to a combination of changes including the tempo of growth and body size due to lifestyle factors.

Secular series and renormalization group for amplitude equations

We have developed a technique that circumvents the process of elimination of secular terms and reproduces the uniformly valid approximations, amplitude equations, and first integrals. The technique is based on a rearrangement of secular terms and their grouping into the secular series that multiplies the constants of the asymptotic expansion. We illustrate the technique by deriving amplitude equations for standard nonlinear oscillator and boundary-layer problems. © 2008 The American Physical Society.

Secular and religious moral grounds resonating across state schools in Indonesia

This paper describes moral education in Indonesia, more particularly, how teachers have implemented the Character Education policy issued by the Ministry of Education and Culture (MOEC) in 2010. This policy required teachers to instil certain values in every lesson, including EFL lessons, to contribute towards building a shared national moral character. Drawing on Durkheim's distinction between secular and religious morality, this paper considers how state schools accommodated and promoted this ‘rational moral education' or secular morality (Durkheim, 1925) in government schools, and how it interacted with religious moral education. This paper uses Bernstein's concepts of pedagogic discourse, instructional and regulative discourses to analyse how teachers have recontextualised this policy in the micro pedagogic settings of their EFL classes. Three types of data were collected for this study: interviews, class observations and teachers' lesson plans. In this way, four EFL teachers working in state schools were interviewed on two occasions and three of their classes were observed. The first interview identified teachers' beliefs and perceptions regarding the Character Education policy. Their classroom and lesson plans were observed to augment this information. Then the final interview asked about the teacher's thinking behind their actions in the observed classes. Since character education was issued within the broader frame of school based curriculum that offered schools and teachers more choices to develop the local curriculum and its intent, the analysis will focus on what moral premises were evident in their school and classes, and how such morality was transmitted through the EFL lessons. The conclusion suggests that teachers' implementation of moral education in their classes was dominated by their school communities and the teachers' own preferred value of religiosity. Such value played out in the classes through both the regulative discourse and the instructional discourse.

Unsteady Compressible Boundary-Layer Flow On The Stagnation Line Of An Infinite Swept Cylinder

Numerical solutions of flow and heat transfer process on the unsteady flow of a compressible viscous fluid with variable gas properties in the vicinity of the stagnation line of an infinite swept cylinder are presented. Results are given for the case where the unsteady temperature field is produced by (i) a sudden change in the wall temperature (enthalpy) as the impulsive motion is started and (ii) a sudden change in the free-stream velocity. Solutions for the simultaneous development of the thermal and momentum boundary layers are obtained by using quasilinearization technique with an implicit finite difference scheme. Attention is given to the transient phenomenon from the initial flow to the final steady-state distribution. Results are presented for the skin friction and heat transfer coefficients as well as for the velocity and enthalpy profiles. The effects of wail enthalpy parameter, sweep parameter, fluid properties and transpiration cooling on the heat transfer and skin friction are considered.

Unsteady free convection flow in the stagnation-point region of a rotating sphere

The unsteady free convection boundary-layer flow in the forward stagnation-point region of a sphere, which is rotating with time-dependent angular velocity in an ambient fluid, has been studied. Both constant wall temperature and constant hear flux conditions have been considered. The non-linear coupled parabolic partial differential equations governing the flow have been solved numerically using an implicit finite-difference scheme. The skin friction and the heat transfer are enhanced by the buoyancy force. The effect of the buoyancy force is found to be more pronounced for smaller Prandtl numbers than for larger Prandtl numbers. For a given buoyancy force, the heat transfer increases with an increase in Prandtl number, but the skin friction decreases.

Unsteady free convection flow in the stagnation-point region of a three-dimensional body

The unsteady free convection flow in the stagnation-point region of a heated three-dimensional body placed in an ambient fluid is studied under boundary layer approximations. We have considered the case where there is an initial steady state that is perturbed by a step-change in the wall temperature. The non-linear coupled partial differential equations governing the free convection flow are solved numerically using a finite difference scheme. The presented results show the temporal development of the momentum and thermal boundary layer characteristics.