Essays in theoretical and applied macroeconomics

Cette thèse s’articule autour de trois chapitres indépendants qui s’inscrivent dans les champs de la macroéconomie, de l’économie monétaire et de la finance internationale. Dans le premier chapitre, je construis un modèle néo-keynesien d’équilibre général sous incertitude pour examiner les implications de la production domestique des ménages pour la politique monétaire. Le modèle proposé permet de reconcilier deux faits empiriques majeurs: la forte sensibilité du produit intérieur brut aux chocs monétaires (obtenue à partir des modèles VAR), et le faible degré de rigidité nominale observé dans les micro-données. Le deuxième chapitre étudie le role de la transformation structurelle (réallocation de la main d’oeuvre entre secteurs) sur la volatilité de la production aggregée dans un panel de pays. Le troisième chapitre quant à lui met en exergue l’importance de la cartographie des échanges commerciaux pour le choix entre un régime de change fixe et l’arrimage à un panier de devises. "Household Production, Services and Monetary Policy" (Chapitre 1) part de l’observation selon laquelle les ménages peuvent produire à domicile des substituts aux services marchands, contrairement aux biens non durables qu’ils acquièrent presque exclusivement sur le marché. Dans ce contexte, ils procèdent à d’importants arbitrages entre produire les services à domicile ou les acquerir sur le marché, dépendamment des changements dans leur revenu. Pour examiner les implications de tels arbitrages (qui s’avèrent être importants dans les micro-données) le secteur domestique est introduit dans un modèle néo-keyenesien d’équilibre général sous incertitude à deux secteurs (le secteur des biens non durables et le secteur des services) autrement standard. Je montre que les firmes du secteur des services sont moins enclin à changer leurs prix du fait que les ménages ont l’option de produire soit même des services substituts. Ceci se traduit par la présence d’un terme endogène supplémentaire qui déplace la courbe de Phillips dans ce secteur. Ce terme croit avec le degré de substituabilité qui existe entre les services produits à domicile et ceux acquis sur le marché. Cet accroissement de la rigidité nominale amplifie la sensibilité de la production réelle aux chocs monétaires, notamment dans le secteur des services, ce qui est compatible avec l’évidence VAR selon laquelle les services de consommation sont plus sensibles aux variations de taux d’intérêt que les biens non durables. "Structural Transformation and the Volatility of Aggregate Output: A Cross-country Analysis" (Chapitre 2) est basée sur l’évidence empirique d’une relation négative entre la part de la main d’oeuvre allouée au secteur des services et la volatilité de la production aggrégée, même lorsque je contrôle pour les facteurs tels que le développement du secteur financier. Ce resultat aggregé est la conséquence des développements sectoriels: la productivité de la main d’oeuvre est beaucoup plus volatile dans l’agriculture et les industries manufacturières que dans les services. La production aggregée deviendrait donc mécaniquement moins volatile au fur et à mesure que la main d’oeuvre se déplace de l’agriculture et de la manufacture vers les services. Pour évaluer cette hypothèse, je calibre un modèle de transformation structurelle à l’économie américaine, que j’utilise ensuite pour générer l’allocation sectorielle de la main d’oeuvre dans l’agriculture, l’industrie et les services pour les autres pays de l’OCDE. Dans une analyse contre-factuelle, le modèle est utlisé pour restreindre la mobilité de la main d’oeuvre entre secteurs de façon endogène. Les calculs montrent alors que le déplacement de la main d’oeuvre vers le secteur des services réduit en effet la volatilité de la production aggregée. "Exchange Rate Volatility under Alternative Peg Regimes: Do Trade Patterns Matter?" (Chapitre 3) est une contribution à la litterature économique qui s’interesse au choix entre divers regimes de change. J’utilise les données mensuelles de taux de change bilatéraux et de commerce extérieur entre 1980 et 2010 pour les pays membre de l’Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA). La monnaie de ces pays (le franc CFA) est arrimée au franc Francais depuis le milieu des années 40 et à l’euro depuis son introduction en 1999. Au moment de l’arrimage initial, la France était le principal partenaire commercial des pays de l’UEMOA. Depuis lors, et plus encore au cours des dix dernières années, la cartographie des échanges de l’union a significativement changé en faveur des pays du groupe des BICs, notamment la Chine. Je montre dans ce chapitre que l’arrimage à un panier de devises aurait induit une volatilité moins pronnoncée du taux de change effectif nominal du franc CFA au cours de la décennie écoulée, comparé à la parité fixe actuelle. Ce chapitre, cependant, n’aborde pas la question de taux de change optimal pour les pays de l’UEMOA, un aspect qui serait intéressant pour une recherche future.

Inter-sectoral health policy in Portugal : competition, cooperation and control

Comunicação apresentada na «19th International Conference on Health Promoting Hospitals and Health Services», Turku, Finlândia de 1 a 3 de Junho de 2011.

Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

Sectoral composition and macroeconomic dynamics

We analyze the transitional dynamics of a model with heterogeneous consumption goods. In this model, convergence is driven by two different forces: the typical diminishing returns to capital and the sectoral change inducing the variation in relative prices. We show that this second force affects the growth rate if the two consumption goods are not Edgeworth independent and if these two goods are produced with technologies exhibiting different capital intensities. Because the afore mentioned dynamic sectoral change arises only under heterogeneous consumption goods, the transitional dynamics of this model exhibits striking differences with the growth model with a single consumption good. We also show that these differences in the transitional dynamics can give raise to large discrepancies in the welfare cost of shocks between the economy with a unique consumption good and the economy with multiple consumption goods.

Disability Act 2005: Sectoral Plan for the Department of Health and Children and the Health Services

Department of Health and Children Sectoral Plan in respect of health and personal social services provision for people with disabilities, as provided for in the Disability Act 2005. Read the Report (PDF, 448kb)

Report of Inter-sectoral Group on the Implementation of the Recommendations of the National Task Force on Obesity

Report of Inter-sectoral Group on the Implementation of the Recommendations of the National Task Force on Obesity Click here to download PDF 1.25mb

Health Sectoral Plan on Disability - Progress Report 2009

Health Sectoral Plan on Disability Progress Report 2009 (Parliamentary No. A10/0144) Click here to download the Executive Summary PDF 72KB

Occurrence of sectoral choroidal occlusive vasculopathy and retinal arteriolar embolization after superselective ophthalmic artery chemotherapy for advanced intraocular retinoblastoma.

BACKGROUND: : Superselective ophthalmic artery chemotherapy (SOAC) has recently been proposed as an alternative to intravenous chemoreduction for advanced intraocular retinoblastoma. Preliminary results appear promising in terms of tumor control and eye conservation, but little is known regarding ocular toxicity and visual prognosis. In this study, we report on the vascular adverse effects observed in our initial cohort of 13 patients. METHODS: : The charts of 13 consecutive patients with retinoblastoma who received a total of 30 injections (up to 3 injections of a single agent per patient at 3-week interval) of melphalan (0.35 mg/kg) in the ophthalmic artery between November 2008 and June 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. RetCam fundus photography and fluorescein angiography were performed at presentation and before each injection. Vision was assessed at the latest visit. RESULTS: : Enucleation and external beam radiotherapy could be avoided in all cases but one, with a mean follow-up of 7 months. Sectoral choroidal occlusive vasculopathy leading to chorioretinal atrophy was observed temporally in 2 eyes (15%) 3 weeks to 6 weeks after the beginning of SOAC and retinal arteriolar emboli in 1 eye 2 weeks after injection. There was no stroke or other clinically significant systemic side effects except a perioperative transient spasm of the internal carotid artery in one patient. Vision ranged between 20/1600 and 20/32 depending on the status of the macula. CONCLUSION: : Superselective ophthalmic artery chemotherapy was effective in all patients with no stroke or other systemic vascular complications. Unlike intravenous chemoreduction, SOAC is associated with potentially sight-threatening adverse effects, such as severe chorioretinal atrophy secondary to subacute choroidal occlusive vasculopathy or central retinal artery embolism, not to mention the risk of ophthalmic artery obstruction, which was not observed in this series. Further analysis of the risks and benefits of SOAC will define its role within the therapeutic arsenal. Meanwhile, we suggest that SOAC should be given in one eye only and restricted to advanced cases of retinoblastoma, as an alternative to enucleation and/or external beam radiotherapy.

Occurrence of sectoral choroidal occlusive vasculopathy and retinal arteriolar embolization after superselective ophthalmic artery chemotherapy for advanced intraocular retinoblastoma.

BACKGROUND:: Superselective ophthalmic artery chemotherapy (SOAC) has recently been proposed as an alternative to intravenous chemoreduction for advanced intraocular retinoblastoma. Preliminary results appear promising in terms of tumor control and eye conservation, but little is known regarding ocular toxicity and visual prognosis. In this study, we report on the vascular adverse effects observed in our initial cohort of 13 patients. METHODS:: The charts of 13 consecutive patients with retinoblastoma who received a total of 30 injections (up to 3 injections of a single agent per patient at 3-week interval) of melphalan (0.35 mg/kg) in the ophthalmic artery between November 2008 and June 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. RetCam fundus photography and fluorescein angiography were performed at presentation and before each injection. Vision was assessed at the latest visit. RESULTS:: Enucleation and external beam radiotherapy could be avoided in all cases but one, with a mean follow-up of 7 months. Sectoral choroidal occlusive vasculopathy leading to chorioretinal atrophy was observed temporally in 2 eyes (15%) 3 weeks to 6 weeks after the beginning of SOAC and retinal arteriolar emboli in 1 eye 2 weeks after injection. There was no stroke or other clinically significant systemic side effects except a peroperative transient spasm of the internal carotid artery in one patient. Vision ranged between 20/1600 and 20/32 depending on the status of the macula. CONCLUSION:: Superselective ophthalmic artery chemotherapy was effective in all patients with no stroke or other systemic vascular complications. Unlike intravenous chemoreduction, SOAC is associated with potentially sight-threatening adverse effects, such as severe chorioretinal atrophy secondary to subacute choroidal occlusive vasculopathy or central retinal artery embolism, not to mention the risk of ophthalmic artery obstruction, which was not observed in this series. Further analysis of the risks and benefits of SOAC will define its role within the therapeutic arsenal. Meanwhile, we suggest that SOAC should be given in one eye only and restricted to advanced cases of retinoblastoma, as an alternative to enucleation and/or external beam radiotherapy.

Sectoral and occupational employment growth in Spain 1995-2005

Between 1995 and 2005, the Spanish economy grew at an annual average rate higher than 3,5%. Total employment increased by more than 4.9 millions. Most of this growth was in occupations related with university degrees (more than 890,000, 18% of the total employment increase) and vocational qualifications (more than 855,000, 17.5% of the total employment increase). From a sectoral perspective, the main part of this increase took place in “Real estate, renting and business activities” (K sector in NACE rev.1), “Construction” (F sector) and “Health and social sector” (N sector). This paper analyses this employment growth in an Input-output framework, by means of a structural decomposition analysis (SDA). Two kinds of results have been obtained. From a sectoral perspective we decompose employment growth into Labour requirements change, technical change and demand change. From an occupational perspective, we decompose the employment growth in substitutions effect, labour productivity effect and demand effect. The results show that, in aggregated terms, the main part of this growth is attributable to demand growth, with a small technical improvement. But the results also show that this aggregated behaviour hides important sectoral and occupational variation. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the ongoing debate over productivity growth and what has been called the “growth model” for the Spanish economy.

Automobile Corporate Networks in Europe : Sectoral Specialization of Central and Eastern European Cities

The global automobile industry is made up of very large corporations and their various subsidiaries containing different functions that create complex locational structures. The networks formed by the 19 largest automobile transnational corporations constitute an automobile "oligopoly" representing more than 90% (OICA, 2012) of the world's production. Since the mid-1990s, Central and Eastern European cities have become attractive for transnational corporations and particularly for the production functions in the automobile sector. This leads to a crucial question. Are strategic functions (such as R&D) within these networks also located in Central and Eastern Europe, or is the region still manufacturing-oriented in the automobile industry? This paper focuses on the patterns and the main factors influencing the role of some of these new central and Eastern European cities that have become integrated in the global value chain of the automobile industry. By analysing the various locations of the specialized functions within the corporations, this study aims to extend the research on global value chains (Gereffi and Korzeniewicz; 1994, Sturgeon, 2000; Krätke, 2014). The spatial patterns of the various functions and the ownerships networks of the automobile industry are constructed in order to identify the cities supporting it. In particular, the way that national metropolises bring their national territories into the globalization of the automobile industry is addressed. For example, are there some specific advantages of capital cities compared to cities that have less integration in globalization terms?