Wave climate in the Arctic 1992-2014: seasonality and trends

Over the past decade, the diminishing Arctic sea ice has impacted the wave field, which depends on the ice-free ocean and wind. This study characterizes the wave climate in the Arctic spanning 1992–2014 from a merged altimeter data set and a wave hindcast that uses CFSR winds and ice concentrations from satellites as input. The model performs well, verified by the altimeters, and is relatively consistent for climate studies. The wave seasonality and extremes are linked to the ice coverage, wind strength, and wind direction, creating distinct features in the wind seas and swells. The altimeters and model show that the reduction of sea ice coverage causes increasing wave heights instead of the wind. However, trends are convoluted by interannual climate oscillations like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In the Nordic Greenland Sea the NAO influences the decreasing wind speeds and wave heights. Swells are becoming more prevalent and wind-sea steepness is declining. The satellite data show the sea ice minimum occurs later in fall when the wind speeds increase. This creates more favorable conditions for wave development. Therefore we expect the ice freeze-up in fall to be the most critical season in the Arctic and small changes in ice cover, wind speeds, and wave heights can have large impacts to the evolution of the sea ice throughout the year. It is inconclusive how important wave–ice processes are within the climate system, but selected events suggest the importance of waves within the marginal ice zone.

An analysis of long-term trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics in water quality data from Plynlimon, Wales

This paper examines two hydrochemical time-series derived from stream samples taken in the Upper Hafren catchment, Plynlimon, Wales. One time-series comprises data collected at 7-hour intervals over 22 months (Neal et al., submitted, this issue), while the other is based on weekly sampling over 20 years. A subset of determinands: aluminium, calcium, chloride, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon, iron, nitrate, pH, silicon and sulphate are examined within a framework of non-stationary time-series analysis to identify determinand trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics. The results demonstrate that both long-term and high-frequency monitoring provide valuable and unique insights into the hydrochemistry of a catchment. The long-term data allowed analysis of long-termtrends, demonstrating continued increases in DOC concentrations accompanied by declining SO4 concentrations within the stream, and provided new insights into the changing amplitude and phase of the seasonality of the determinands such as DOC and Al. Additionally, these data proved invaluable for placing the short-term variability demonstrated within the high-frequency data within context. The 7-hour data highlighted complex diurnal cycles for NO3, Ca and Fe with cycles displaying changes in phase and amplitude on a seasonal basis. The high-frequency data also demonstrated the need to consider the impact that the time of sample collection can have on the summary statistics of the data and also that sampling during the hours of darkness provides additional hydrochemical information for determinands which exhibit pronounced diurnal variability. Moving forward, this research demonstrates the need for both long-term and high-frequency monitoring to facilitate a full and accurate understanding of catchment hydrochemical dynamics.

Cold-season temperatures in the European Alps during the past millennium: variability, seasonality and recent trends

This study presents a proxy-based, quantitative reconstruction of cold-season (mean October to May, TOct–May) air temperatures covering nearly the entire last millennium (AD 1060–2003, some hiatuses). The reconstruction was based on subfossil chrysophyte stomatocyst remains in the varved sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps (46°27’N, 9°48′W, 1791 m a.s.l.). Previous studies have demonstrated the reliability of this proxy by comparison to meteorological data. Cold-season air temperatures could therefore be reconstructed quantitatively, at a high resolution (5-yr) and with high chronological accuracy. Spatial correlation analysis suggests that the reconstruction reflects cold season climate variability over the high- Alpine region and substantial parts of central and western Europe. Cold-season temperatures were characterized by a relatively stable first part of the millennium until AD 1440 (2σ of 5-yr mean values = 0.7 °C) and highly variable TOct–May after that (AD 1440–1900, 2σ of 5-yr mean values = 1.3 °C). Recent decades (AD, 1991-present) were unusually warm in the context of the last millennium (exceeding the 2σ-range of the mean decadal TOct–May) but this warmth was not unprecedented. The coolest decades occurred from AD 1510–1520 and AD 1880–1890. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades is generally in good agreement with documentary data representing Switzerland and central European lowlands. The transition from relatively stable to highly variable TOct–May coincided with large changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic region. Comparison of reconstructed cold season temperatures to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) during the past 1000 years showed that the relatively stable and warm conditions at the study site until AD 1440 coincided with a persistent positive mode of the NAO. We propose that the transition to large TOct–May variability around AD 1440 was linked to the subsequent absence of this persistent zonal flow pattern, which would allow other climatic drivers to gain importance in the study area. From AD 1440–1900, the similarity of reconstructed TOct–May to reconstructed air pressure in the Siberian High suggests a relatively strong influence of continental anticyclonic systems on Alpine cold season climate parameters during periods when westerly airflow was subdued. A more continental type of atmospheric circulation thus seems to be characteristic for the Little Ice Age in Europe. Comparison of Toct–May to summer temperature reconstructions from the same study site shows that, as expected, summer and cold season temperature trends and variability differed completely throughout nearly the entire last 1000 years. Since AD 1980, however, summer and cold season temperatures show a simultaneous, strong increase, which is unprecedented in the context of the last millennium. We suggest that the most likely explanation for this recent trend is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing.

Modelling the cycling of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea system: Fluxes, loading, seasonality, trends

The fate and cycling of two selected POPs is investigated for the North Sea system with an improved version of a fate and transport ocean model (FANTOM). The model uses atmospheric data from the EMEP MSC East POP model (Gusev et al., 2009), giving reasonable concentrations and seasonal distributions for the entire region, as opposed to the three observation stations that Ilyina et al. (2006) were limited to. Other model improvements include changes in the calculation of POP exchange between the water column and sediment.

We chose to simulate the fate of two POPs with very different properties, ?-HCH and PCB 153. Since the fate and cycling of POPs are strongly affected by hydrodynamic processes, a high resolution version of the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM) was developed and utilised. Simulations were made for the period 1996–2005. Both models were validated by comparing results with available data, which showed that the simulations were of very satisfactory quality.

Model results show that the North Sea is a net sink for ?-HCH and a net source to the atmosphere of PCB 153. Total masses of ?-HCH and PCB 153 in 2005 are reduced to 30% and 50%, respectively, of 1996 values.

Storms resuspending bottom sediments into the water column mobilise POPs into the atmosphere and have the potential to deliver substantial loads of these POPs into Europe.

Reasonable adjustment and the assessment of students with disabilities: Australian legal issues and trends

Student assessment is particularly important, and particularly controversial, because it is the means by which student achievement is determined. Reasonable adjustment to student assessment is of equal importance as the means of ensuring the mitigation, or even elimination, of disability related barriers to the demonstration of student achievement. The significance of reasonable adjustment is obvious in the later years of secondary school, and in the tertiary sector, because failure to adjust assessment may be asserted as the reason a student did not achieve as well as anticipated or as the reason a student was excluded from a course and, as a result, from future study and employment opportunities. Even in the early years of schooling, however, assessment and its management are a critical issue for staff and students, especially in an education system like Australia’s with an ever increasing emphasis on national benchmarks testing. This paper will explain the legislation which underpins the right to reasonable adjustment in education in Australian schools. It will give examples of the kinds of adjustment which may be made to promote equality of opportunity in the area of assessment. It will also consider some of the controversies which have confronted, or which, it may be speculated, are likely to confront Australian education institutions as they work towards compliance with reasonable adjustment laws.

Prevalence and trends of the diabetes epidemic in South Asia : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Diabetes mellitus has reached epidemic proportions worldwide. South Asians are known to have an increased predisposition for diabetes which has become an important health concern in the region. We discuss the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes in South Asia and explore the differential risk factors reported. Methods Prevalence data were obtained by searching the Medline® database with; ‘prediabetes’ and ‘diabetes mellitus’ (MeSH major topic) and ‘Epidemology/EP’ (MeSH subheading). Search limits were articles in English, between 01/01/1980–31/12/2011, on human adults (≥19 years). The conjunction of the above results was narrowed down with country names. Results The most recent reported prevalence of pre-diabetes:diabetes in regional countries were; Bangladesh–4.7%:8.5% (2004–2005;Rural), India–4.6%:12.5% (2007;Rural); Maldives–3.0%:3.7% (2004;National), Nepal–19.5%:9.5% (2007;Urban), Pakistan–3.0%:7.2% (2002;Rural), Sri Lanka–11.5%:10.3% (2005–2006;National). Urban populations demonstrated a higher prevalence of diabetes. An increasing trend in prevalence of diabetes was observed in urban/rural India and rural Sri Lanka. The diabetes epidemicity index decreased with the increasing prevalence of diabetes in respective countries. A high epidemicity index was seen in Sri Lanka (2005/2006–52.8%), while for other countries, the epidemicity index was comparatively low (rural India 2007–26.9%; urban India 2002/2005–31.3%, and urban Bangladesh–33.1%). Family history, urban residency, age, higher BMI, sedentary lifestyle, hypertension and waist-hip ratio were associated with an increased risks of diabetes. Conclusion A significant epidemic of diabetes is present in the South Asian region with a rapid increase in prevalence over the last two decades. Hence there is a need for urgent preventive and curative strategies .

Personalised information gathering and recommender systems : techniques and trends

With the explosive growth of resources available through the Internet, information mismatching and overload have become a severe concern to users. Web users are commonly overwhelmed by huge volume of information and are faced with the challenge of finding the most relevant and reliable information in a timely manner. Personalised information gathering and recommender systems represent state-of-the-art tools for efficient selection of the most relevant and reliable information resources, and the interest in such systems has increased dramatically over the last few years. However, web personalization has not yet been well-exploited; difficulties arise while selecting resources through recommender systems from a technological and social perspective. Aiming to promote high quality research in order to overcome these challenges, this paper provides a comprehensive survey on the recent work and achievements in the areas of personalised web information gathering and recommender systems. The report covers concept-based techniques exploited in personalised information gathering and recommender systems.

Ergonomic DHM systems - limitations and trends – a systematic literature review focused on the ‘future of ergonomics’

Digital Human Models (DHM) have been used for over 25 years. They have evolved from simple drawing templates, which are nowadays still used in architecture, to complex and Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) integrated design and analysis tools for various ergonomic tasks. DHM are most frequently used for applications in product design and production planning, with many successful implementations documented. DHM from other domains, as for example computer user interfaces, artificial intelligence, training and education, or the entertainment industry show that there is also an ongoing development towards a comprehensive understanding and holistic modeling of human behavior. While the development of DHM for the game sector has seen significant progress in recent years, advances of DHM in the area of ergonomics have been comparatively modest. As a consequence, we need to question if current DHM systems are fit for the design of future mobile work systems. So far it appears that DHM in Ergonomics are rather limited to some traditional applications. According to Dul et al. (2012), future characteristics of Human Factors and Ergonomics (HFE) can be assigned to six main trends: (1) global change of work systems, (2) cultural diversity, (3) ageing, (4) information and communication technology (ICT), (5) enhanced competiveness and the need for innovation, and; (6) sustainability and corporate social responsibility. Based on a literature review, we systematically investigate the capabilities of current ergonomic DHM systems versus the ‘Future of Ergonomics’ requirements. It is found that DHMs already provide broad functionality in support of trends (1) and (2), and more limited options in regards to trend (3). Today’s DHM provide access to a broad range of national and international databases for correct differentiation and characterization of anthropometry for global populations. Some DHM explicitly address social and cultural modeling of groups of people. In comparison, the trends of growing importance of ICT (4), the need for innovation (5) and sustainability (6) are addressed primarily from a hardware-oriented and engineering perspective and not reflected in DHM. This reflects a persistent separation between hardware design (engineering) and software design (information technology) in the view of DHM – a disconnection which needs to be urgently overcome in the era of software defined user interfaces and mobile devices. The design of a mobile ICT-device is discussed to exemplify the need for a comprehensive future DHM solution. Designing such mobile devices requires an approach that includes organizational aspects as well as technical and cognitive ergonomics. Multiple interrelationships between the different aspects result in a challenging setting for future DHM. In conclusion, the ‘Future of Ergonomics’ pose particular challenges for DHM in regards to the design of mobile work systems, and moreover mobile information access.

Knowledge and the City : Concepts, Applications and Trends of Knowledge-Based Urban Development

This book underlines the growing importance of knowledge for the competitiveness of cities and their regions. Examining the role of knowledge - in its economic, socio-cultural, spatial and institutional forms - for urban and regional development, identifying the preconditions for innovative use of urban and regional knowledge assets and resources, and developing new methods to evaluate the performance and potential of knowledge-based urban and regional development, the book provides an in-depth and comprehensive understanding of both theoretical and practical aspects of knowledge-based development and its implications and prospects for cities and regions.