Adverse weather effects on bus ridership

This study focuses on weather effects on daily bus ridership in Brisbane, given bus’ dominance in this city. The weather pattern of Brisbane varies by season according to its sub-tropical climate characteristics. Bus is prone to inclement weather condition as it shares the road system with general traffic. Moreover, bus stops generally offer less or sometimes no protection from adverse weather. Hence, adverse weather conditions such as rain are conjectured to directly impact on daily travel behaviour patterns. There has been limited Australian research on the impact of weather on daily transit ridership. This study investigates the relationship between rainy day and daily bus ridership for the period of 2010 to 2012. Overall, rainfall affects negatively with varying impacts on different transit groups. However, this analysis confirmed a positive relationship between consecutive rainy days (rain continuing for 3 or more days). A possible explanation could be that people may switch their transport mode to bus to avoid high traffic congestion and higher accident potentiality on rainy days. Also, Brisbane’s segregated busway (BRT) corridor works favourably towards this mode choice. Our study findings enhance the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviour, particularly mode choice behaviour under adverse weather conditions.

Adverse weather effects on bus ridership

This study focuses on the effects of weather on daily bus ridership in Brisbane, given the dominance of buses in that city. The weather pattern of Brisbane varies by season according to its subtropical climate characteristics. Bus operation is affected by inclement weather conditions, as buses share the road system with general traffic. Moreover, bus stops generally offer little, or sometimes no, protection from adverse weather. Hence, adverse weather conditions such as rain are thought to directly impact on daily travel behaviour patterns. There has been limited Australian research on the impact of weather on daily transit ridership. This study investigates the relationship between rainy days and daily bus ridership for the period 2010 to 2012. Overall, rainfall has a negative effect, with varying impacts on different transit groups. However, this analysis confirmed a positive relationship between consecutive rainy days (rain continuing for 3 or more days). A possible explanation could be that people switch their transport mode to bus to avoid high traffic congestion and higher accident potentiality on rainy days. Also, Brisbane’s segregated busway corridor works favourably towards this mode choice. The findings of our study enhance the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviour, particularly mode-choice behaviour, under adverse weather conditions.

Campylobacter monitoring in German broiler flocks: an explorative time series analysis

Campylobacter, a major zoonotic pathogen, displays seasonality in poultry and in humans. In order to identify temporal patterns in the prevalence of thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in a voluntary monitoring programme in broiler flocks in Germany and in the reported human incidence, time series methods were used. The data originated between May 2004 and June 2007. By the use of seasonal decomposition, autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions, it could be shown that an annual seasonality is present. However, the peak month differs between sample submission, prevalence in broilers and human incidence. Strikingly, the peak in human campylobacterioses preceded the peak in broiler prevalence in Lower Saxony rather than occurring after it. Significant cross-correlations between monthly temperature and prevalence in broilers as well as between human incidence, monthly temperature, rainfall and wind-force were identified. The results highlight the necessity to quantify the transmission of Campylobacter from broiler to humans and to include climatic factors in order to gain further insight into the epidemiology of this zoonotic disease.

Hydroperiod and seasonal effects on fish decomposition in an oligotrophic Everglades marsh

In the Everglades, the majority of fish detrital inputs occur during the dry scason, when waterlevel drawdown reduces aquatic habitat. While these mortality events are highly seasonal, the remineralization and recycling of fish detrital nutrients may represent an important stimulus to the ecosystem in the following wet season. The goal of this study was to quantify the rate of detrital fish decomposition during three periods of the year to determine seasonal variations in decomposition patterns in this ecosystem. A multiple regression analysis showed that hydroperiod and water depth both played a role in determining fish decomposition rates within this ecosystem. Decomposition rates ranged from a low of 13% day−1 in December 2000 to a high of 50% day−1 in April 2001, the height of the dry season. Phosphorus analysis showed that Gambusia holbrooki, the dominant small fish species in the Everglades, contains 7.169±1.46 mg P g−1 wet fish weight. Based on the observed decomposition rates and the average biomass added, the estimafed daily flux of phosphorus from the experimental detrital loading ranged from a low of 27.04 mg P day−1 to a high of 108.14 mg P day−1 during the decomposition period. We estimated that these inputs could represent an input of 43 μg P m−2 day−1 to the total temporal Everglades phosphorus budget. Although much of this phosphorus is likely incorporated into the macroinvertebrate pool, detrital inputs peak during the dry season when nutrients are most likely to be incorporated into the soil and occur when decomposition of vegetative material is moisture-limited. These inputs may therefore play an important role in stimulating vegetative production during the early wet season.

Seasonal concentration decomposition across segments of tourism demand

A la hora de aplicar medidas desestacionalizadoras, a los gestores de destinos turísticos les resulta complicado identificar qué tipo de turistas contribuyen a la desestacionalización, ya que estos turistas potenciales pueden estar pasando desapercibido por no disponer de una metodología que los identifique. Teniendo en cuenta esta deficiencia, en esta tesis se ha querido conseguir un enfoque de medición que proporcione información acerca del tipo de turista objetivo para reducir la concentración estacional en los destinos analizados. Para ello, la metodología que se emplea en esta tesis, que incluye la descomposición aditiva del índice de Gini, proporciona información acerca de la contribución de cada segmento de demanda a la concentración estacional total de un destino. Mediante el empleo de dicha descomposición, el componente estacional puede ser expresado a través de unos efectos relativos marginales que permiten identificar a aquellos turistas que se manifiesten más favorables para reducir la estacionalidad. De manera complementaria, se han estimado los factores estacionales mediante el método multiplicativo que sirven para mejorar el análisis ya que proporcionan los patrones estacionales de los segmentos de demanda analizados. Además, según el destino analizado, se han utilizado clasificaciones complejas atendiendo al origen del turista, su principal motivación de viaje y la región visitada dentro de cada uno de los destinos analizados, las cuales, han permitido discernir con mayor precisión dentro de clasificaciones poco homogéneas. La metodología empleada en esta tesis se propone como una medida de control y seguimiento con la que, analizando la evolución de los efectos relativos marginales a lo largo del período de los que se dispongan datos suficientemente desagregados y, sobre todo, del último año, podrían ajustarse las políticas turísticas orientadas a reducir los efectos de la estacionalidad. Con la aplicación de la metodología propuesta en los destinos turísticos analizados, en los que se ha empleado un nivel de desagregación suficiente, se pretende aportar información adicional a los gestores del turismo en cuanto a qué turistas deben dirigir sus políticas de captación, siempre y cuando su objetivo sea reducir la concentración estacional en estos destinos. Del mismo modo, se pretende conseguir una mejora de la efectividad de las políticas contra la estacionalidad, dirigiéndolas hacia aquellos segmentos de demanda identificados como menos propensos a la estacionalidad. Esta tesis ha sido elaborada por compendio de publicaciones y se ha estructurado en siete capítulos. El primer capítulo es una introducción donde se presentan las implicaciones de esta tesis en cuanto a los aspectos relacionados con la estacionalidad, así como la metodología empleada para la medición de la misma en los destinos analizados. En los siguientes capítulos se analiza la concentración estacional de tres destinos y sus regiones: el litoral de Andalucía (segundo y tercer capítulo), Argentina (cuarto y quinto capítulo), y el Reino Unido (sexto capítulo). Los resultados se muestran con la copia incluida de las cinco publicaciones que conforman esta tesis. Por último, se proporciona las conclusiones en el séptimo capítulo, donde se muestra un análisis general y un resumen de las conclusiones de todas las contribuciones.

Chronological categorization and decomposition of customer loads

The majority of distribution utilities do not have accurate information on the constituents of their loads. This information is very useful in managing and planning the network, adequately and economically. Customer loads are normally categorized in three main sectors: 1) residential; 2) industrial; and 3) commercial. In this paper, penalized least-squares regression and Euclidean distance methods are developed for this application to identify and quantify the makeup of a feeder load with unknown sectors/subsectors. This process is done on a monthly basis to account for seasonal and other load changes. The error between the actual and estimated load profiles are used as a benchmark of accuracy. This approach has shown to be accurate in identifying customer types in unknown load profiles, and is used in cross-validation of the results and initial assumptions.

Biological mechanisms driving the seasonal changes in the internal loading of phosphorus in shallow lakes

Because of the obvious importance of P as a nutrient that often accelerates growth of phytoplankton (including toxic cyanobacteria) and therefore worsens water quality, much interest has been devoted to P exchange across the sediment-water interface. Generally, the release mode of P from the sediment differed greatly between shallow and deep lakes, and much of the effort has been focused on iron and oxygen, and also on the relevant environmental factors, for example, turbulence and decomposition, but a large part of the P variation in shallow lakes remains unexplained. This paper reviews experimental and field studies on the mechanisms of P release from the sediment in the shallow temperate (in Europe) and subtropical (in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China) lakes, and it is suggested that pH rather than DO might be more important in driving the seasonal dynamics of internal P loading in these shallow lakes, i.e., intense photosynthesis of phytoplankton increases pH of the lake water and thus may increase pH of the surface sediment, leading to enhanced release of P (especially iron-bound P) from the sediment. Based on the selective pump of P (but not N) from the sediment by algal blooms, it is concluded that photosynthesis which is closely related to eutrophication level is the driving force for the seasonal variation of internal P loading in shallow lakes. This is a new finding. Additionally, the selective pump of P from the sediment by algal blooms not only explains satisfactorily why both TP and PO4-P in the hypereutrophic Lake Donghu declined significantly since the mid-1980s when heavy cyanobacterial blooms were eliminated by the nontraditional biomanipulation (massive stocking of the filter-feeding silver and bighead carps), but also explains why TP in European lakes decreased remarkably in the spring clear-water phase with less phytoplankton during the seasonal succession of aquatic communities or when phytoplankton biomass was decreased by traditional biomanipulation. Compared with deep lakes, wax and wane of phytoplankton due to alternations in the ecosystem structure is also able to exert significant influences on the P exchange at the sediment-water interface in shallow lakes. In other words, biological activities are also able to drive P release from sediments, and such a static P release process is especially more prominent in eutrophic shallow lakes with dense phytoplankton.

Roles of equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the seasonal circulation of the equatorial Indian Ocean

An ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is used to study the roles of equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the seasonal circulation of the equatorial Indian Ocean. The western boundary reflection is defined as the total Kelvin waves leaving the western boundary, which include the reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves as well as the effects of alongshore winds, off-equatorial Rossby waves, and nonlinear processes near the western boundary. The evaluation of the reflection is based on a wave decomposition of the OGCM results and experiments with linear models. It is found that the alongshore winds along the east coast of Africa and the Rossby waves in the off-equatorial areas contribute significantly to the annual harmonics of the equatorial Kelvin waves at the western boundary. The semiannual harmonics of the Kelvin waves, on the other hand, originate primarily from a linear reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves. The dynamics of a dominant annual oscillation of sea level coexisting with the dominant semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents in the central equatorial Indian Ocean are investigated. These sea level and zonal current patterns are found to be closely related to the linear reflections of the semiannual harmonics at the meridional boundaries. Because of the reflections, the second baroclinic mode resonates with the semiannual wind forcing; that is, the semiannual zonal currents carried by the reflected waves enhance the wind-forced currents at the central basin. Because of the different behavior of the zonal current and sea level during the reflections, the semiannual sea levels of the directly forced and reflected waves cancel each other significantly at the central basin. In the meantime, the annual harmonic of the sea level remains large, producing a dominant annual oscillation of sea level in the central equatorial Indian Ocean. The linear reflection causes the semiannual harmonics of the incoming and reflected sea levels to enhance each other at the meridional boundaries. In addition, the weak annual harmonics of sea level in the western basin, resulting from a combined effect of the western boundary reflection and the equatorial zonal wind forcing, facilitate the dominance by the semiannual harmonics near the western boundary despite the strong local wind forcing at the annual period. The Rossby waves are found to have a much larger contribution to the observed equatorial semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents than the Kelvin waves. The westward progressive reversal of seasonal surface zonal currents along the equator in the observations is primarily due to the Rossby wave propagation.

Relative effect of litter quality, forest type and their interaction on leaf decomposition in south-east Brazilian forests

Decomposition was studied in a reciprocal litter transplant experiment to examine the effects of forest type, litter quality and their interaction on leaf decomposition in four tropical forests in south-east Brazil. Litterbags were used to measure decomposition of leaves of one tree species from each forest type: Calophyllum brasiliense from restinga forest; Guapira opposita from Atlantic forest; Esenbeckia leiocarpa from semi-deciduous forest; and Copaifera langsdorffii from cerradao. Decomposition rates in rain forests (Atlantic and restinga) were twice as fast as those in seasonal forests (semi-deciduous and cerradao), suggesting that intensity and distribution of precipitation are important predictors of decomposition rates at regional scales. Decomposition rates varied by species, in the following order: E. leiocarpa > C. langsdorffii > G. opposita > C. brasiliense. However, there was no correlation between decomposition rates and chemical litter quality parameters: C:N, C:P, lignin concentration and lignin:N. The interaction between forest type and litter quality was positive mainly because C. langsdorffii decomposed faster than expected in its native forest. This is a potential indication of a decomposer`s adaptation to specific substrates in a tropical forest. These findings suggest that besides climate, interactions between decomposers and plants might play an essential role in decomposition processes and it must be better understood.

Seasonal fluctuations of bacterial population and microbial activity in soils cultivated with eucalyptus and pinus

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The importance of mesofauna and decomposition environment on leaf decomposition in three forests in southeastern Brazil

We examined the effects of soil mesofauna and the litter decomposition environment (above and belowground) on leaf decomposition rates in three forest types in southeastern Brazil. To estimate decomposition experimentally, we used litterbags with a standard substrate in a full-factorial experimental design. We used model selection to compare three decomposition models and also to infer the importance of forest type, decomposition environment, mesofauna, and their interactions on the decomposition process. Rather than the frequently used simple and double-exponential models, the best model to describe our dataset was the exponential deceleration model, which assumed a single organic compartment with an exponential decrease of the decomposition rate. Decomposition was higher in the wet than in the seasonal forest, and the differences between forest types were stronger aboveground. Regarding litter decomposition environment, decomposition was predominantly higher below than aboveground, but the magnitude of this effect was higher in the seasonal than in wet forests. Mesofauna exclusion treatments had slower decomposition, except aboveground into the Semi-deciduous Forest, where the mesofauna presence did not affect decomposition. Furthermore, the effect of mesofauna was stronger in the wet forests and belowground. Overall, our results suggest that, in a regional scale, both decomposers activity and the positive effect of soil mesofauna in decomposition are constrained by abiotic factors, such as moisture conditions.

An autoregressive conditional filtering process to remove intraday seasonal volatility and its application to testing the noisy rational expectations model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

An Autoregressive Conditional Filtering Process to remove Intraday Seasonal Volatility and its Application to Testing the Noisy Rational Expectations Model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Seasonal concentration of cruise tourism in the Mediterranean

This research delves into analyzing the seasonality of cruise tourism in the Mediterranean by using the decomposition of the Gini index, used in the field of cruise tourism for the first time in literature. This study specifically used the decomposition to evaluate the contribution degree of each port to the global seasonal concentration of each Mediterranean region. Moreover, a cluster analysis technique (bootstrapped bagged clustering) was applied to classify the ports into homogeneous groups according to their seasonal patterns given the significant heterogeneity revealed in the major regions of the Mediterranean. The methodology applied can serve as a control and monitoring tool for measuring seasonal concentration levels in cruise tourism, allowing for policies against seasonality to be tailored in the cruise tourism segment.

In Situ Observation of the Thermal Decomposition of Weddelite by Heating Stage Environmental Scanning Electron Microscopy

The morphological and chemical changes occurring during the thermal decomposition of weddelite, CaC2O4·2H2O, have been followed in real time in a heating stage attached to an Environmental Scanning Electron Microscope operating at a pressure of 2 Torr, with a heating rate of 10 °C/min and an equilibration time of approximately 10 min. The dehydration step around 120 °C and the loss of CO around 425 °C do not involve changes in morphology, but changes in the composition were observed. The final reaction of CaCO3 to CaO while evolving CO2 around 600 °C involved the formation of chains of very small oxide particles pseudomorphic to the original oxalate crystals. The change in chemical composition could only be observed after cooling the sample to 350 °C because of the effects of thermal radiation.