Seasonal adjustment and cointegration

El documento examina el efecto de filtros de ajuste en el tamaño y poder de prueba de cointegración que usan los residuales como pruebas ADF y PP, mediante procedimientos MonteCarlo y una aplicación empírica. Nuestros resultados indican que el uso de filtros distorsiona el tamaño y reduce el poder de estas pruebas.

A guide to seasonal adjustment of labor force data.

Mode of access: Internet.

Seasonal adjustment of domestic trunk air-passenger traffic data, 1951-61 : preliminary /

"February 1963."

A comparison and assessment of seasonal adjustment methods for employment and unemployment statistics /

Mode of access: Internet.

On the seasonal adjustment of economic time series aggregates : a case study of the unemployment rate /

Mode of access: Internet.

Seasonal adjustment when both deterministic and stochastic seasonality are present : for presentation at the National Bureau of Economic Research/Bureau of the Census Conference on Seasonal Analysis of Economic Times Series, Washington, D.C., September 9-10, 1976.

Mode of access: Internet.

Impact of seasonality-adjusted flexible microcredit on repayment and food consumption : experimental evidence from rural Bangladesh

The mismatch between credit repayments and income seasonality poses a challenge for microfinance institutions (MFIs) working in developing countries. For instance, in northern Bangladesh, income and consumption downfalls during the lean season after the transplanting of major paddy crops are a serious threat to a household's economy. Poor landless agricultural wage laborers suffer the most owing to this seasonality as they face difficulties in smoothing their consumption. However, in designing microcredit products, MFIs do not usually provide flexibility or seasonal adjustment during the lean season. This is mainly because MFIs are afraid that such flexibility might break the repayment discipline of borrowers, resulting in higher default rates. We thus conducted a randomized controlled trial in 2011-12 in northern Bangladesh to empirically test whether seasonality-adjusted flexible microcredit leads to an increase in repayment problems for MFIs as well as whether it can increase and stabilize consumption of borrower households. Our results suggest no statistically discernible difference among the treatment arms in case of default, overdue amount, or repayment frequency. On the other hand, we find no positive impact of repayment flexibility on immediate food consumption during the period of seasonality, except for in-kind full moratorium treatment group. After a year of initial intervention, however, we see positive changes in food intake during the lean season. Thus, our preliminary results are in favor of seasonality-adjusted flexible microcredit.

Current industrial reports.

Description based on: 1st quarter 1979; title from caption.

Oseltamivir in seasonal, avian H5N1 and pandemic 2009 A/H1N1 influenza: pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics.

Oseltamivir is the ester-type prodrug of the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir carboxylate. It has been shown to be an effective treatment for both seasonal influenza and the recent pandemic 2009 A/H1N1 influenza, reducing both the duration and severity of the illness. It is also effective when used preventively. This review aims to describe the current knowledge of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics of this agent, and to address the issue of possible therapeutic drug monitoring. According to the currently available literature, the pharmacokinetics of oseltamivir carboxylate after oral administration of oseltamivir are characterized by mean ± SD bioavailability of 79 ± 12%, apparent clearance of 25.3 ± 7.0 L/h, an elimination half-life of 7.4 ± 2.5 hours and an apparent terminal volume of distribution of 267 ± 122 L. A maximum plasma concentration of 342 ± 83 μg/L, a time to reach the maximum plasma concentration of 4.2 ± 1.1 hours, a trough plasma concentration of 168 ± 32 μg/L and an area under the plasma concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 hours of 6110 ± 1330 μg · h/L for a 75 mg twice-daily regimen were derived from literature data. The apparent clearance is highly correlated with renal function, hence the dosage needs to be adjusted in proportion to the glomerular filtration rate. Interpatient variability is moderate (28% in apparent clearance and 46% in the apparent central volume of distribution); there is no indication of significant erratic or limited absorption in given patient subgroups. The in vitro pharmacodynamics of oseltamivir carboxylate reveal wide variation in the concentration producing 50% inhibition of influenza A and B strains (range 0.17-44 μg/L). A formal correlation between systemic exposure to oseltamivir carboxylate and clinical antiviral activity or tolerance in influenza patients has not yet been demonstrated; thus no formal therapeutic or toxic range can be proposed. The pharmacokinetic parameters of oseltamivir carboxylate after oseltamivir administration (bioavailability, apparent clearance and the volume of distribution) are fairly predictable in healthy subjects, with little interpatient variability outside the effect of renal function in all patients and bodyweight in children. Thus oseltamivir carboxylate exposure can probably be controlled with sufficient accuracy by thorough dosage adjustment according to patient characteristics. However, there is a lack of clinical study data on naturally infected patients. In addition, the therapeutic margin of oseltamivir carboxylate is poorly defined. The usefulness of systematic therapeutic drug monitoring in patients therefore appears to be questionable; however, studies are still needed to extend the knowledge to particular subgroups of patients or dosage regimens.

A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments

Understanding the sources of systematic errors in climate models is challenging because of coupled feedbacks and errors compensation. The developing seamless approach proposes that the identification and the correction of short term climate model errors have the potential to improve the modeled climate on longer time scales. In previous studies, initialised atmospheric simulations of a few days have been used to compare fast physics processes (convection, cloud processes) among models. The present study explores how initialised seasonal to decadal hindcasts (re-forecasts) relate transient week-to-month errors of the ocean and atmospheric components to the coupled model long-term pervasive SST errors. A protocol is designed to attribute the SST biases to the source processes. It includes five steps: (1) identify and describe biases in a coupled stabilized simulation, (2) determine the time scale of the advent of the bias and its propagation, (3) find the geographical origin of the bias, (4) evaluate the degree of coupling in the development of the bias, (5) find the field responsible for the bias. This strategy has been implemented with a set of experiments based on the initial adjustment of initialised simulations and exploring various degrees of coupling. In particular, hindcasts give the time scale of biases advent, regionally restored experiments show the geographical origin and ocean-only simulations isolate the field responsible for the bias and evaluate the degree of coupling in the bias development. This strategy is applied to four prominent SST biases of the IPSLCM5A-LR coupled model in the tropical Pacific, that are largely shared by other coupled models, including the Southeast Pacific warm bias and the equatorial cold tongue bias. Using the proposed protocol, we demonstrate that the East Pacific warm bias appears in a few months and is caused by a lack of upwelling due to too weak meridional coastal winds off Peru. The cold equatorial bias, which surprisingly takes 30 years to develop, is the result of an equatorward advection of midlatitude cold SST errors. Despite large development efforts, the current generation of coupled models shows only little improvement. The strategy proposed in this study is a further step to move from the current random ad hoc approach, to a bias-targeted, priority setting, systematic model development approach.

Seasonal variations of ventricular arrhythmia clusters in defibrillator recipients

BACKGROUND: Clustering ventricular arrhythmias are the consequence of acute ventricular electrical instability and represent a challenge in the management of the growing number of patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). Triggering factors can rarely be identified. OBJECTIVES: Several studies have revealed seasonal variations in the frequency of cardiovascular events and life-threatening arrhythmias, and we sought to establish whether seasonal factors may exacerbate ventricular electrical instability leading to arrhythmia clusters and electrical storm. METHODS: Two hundred and fourteen consecutive defibrillator recipients were followed-up during 3.3 +/- 2.2 years. Arrhythmia cluster was defined as the occurrence of three or more arrhythmic events triggering appropriate defibrillator therapies within 2 weeks. Time intervals between two clusters were calculated for each month and each season, and were compared using Kruskal-Wallis test and Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test with Bonferroni adjustment. RESULTS: During a follow-up of 698 patient years, 98 arrhythmia clusters were observed in 51 patients; clustering ventricular arrhythmias were associated with temporal variables; they occurred more frequently in the winter and spring months than during the summer and fall. Accordingly, the time intervals between two clusters were significantly shorter during winter and spring (median and 95% CI): winter 16 (5-19), spring 11.5 (7-25), summer 34.5 (15-55), fall 50.5 (19-65), P = 0.0041. CONCLUSION: There are important seasonal variations in the incidence of arrhythmia clusters in ICD recipients. Whether these variations are related to environmental factors, change in physical activity, or psychological factors requires further study.

Intra-annual patterns of tracheid size in the Mediterranean tree Juniperus thurifera as an indicator of seasonal water stress

Because climate can affect xylem cell anatomy, series of intra-annual cell anatomical features have the potential to retrospectively supply seasonal climatic information. In this study, we explored the ability to extract information about water stress conditions from tracheid features of the Mediterranean conifer Juniperus thurifera L. Tracheidograms of four climatic years from two drought-sensitive sites in Spain were compared to evaluate whether it is possible to link intra-annual cell size patterns to seasonal climatic conditions. Results indicated site-specific anatomical adjustment such as smaller and thicker tracheids at the dryer site but also showed a strong climatic imprint on the intra-annual pattern of tracheid size. Site differences in cell size reflected expected structural adjustments against cavitation failures. Differences between intra-annual patterns, however, indicated a response to seasonal changes in water availability whereby cells formed under drought conditions were smaller and thicker, and vice versa. This relationship was more manifest and stable at the dryer site

Sargassum Filipendula Alginate From Brazil: Seasonal Influence And Characteristics.

The aim of this work is focused on the extraction and characterization of the Brazilian seaweed Sargassum filipendula alginate. Alginates obtained at different seasons were characterized by liquid state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The alginate extraction efficiency was about 20%. Different seasons of the year and different stages in the life cycle of Sargassum sp. in southeastern Brazil influenced the M/G and, consequently, the technological properties of extracted alginates.

Seasonal variation of soluble carbohydrates and starch in Echinolaena inflexa, a native grass species from the Brazilian savanna, and in the invasive grass Melinis minutiflora

Echinolaena inflexa (Poir.) Chase is an abundant C3 grass species with high biomass production in the Brazilian savanna (cerrado); Melinis minutiflora Beauv. is an African C4 forage grass widespread in cerrado and probably displacing some native herbaceous species. In the present work, we analysed seasonally the content and composition of soluble carbohydrates, the starch amounts and the above-ground biomass (phytomass) of E. inflexa and M. minutiflora plants harvested in two transects at 5 and 130 m from the border in a restrict area of cerrado at the Biological Reserve and Experimental Station of Mogi-Guaçu (SP, Brazil). Results showed that water soluble carbohydrates and starch amounts from the shoots of both species varied according to the time of the year, whilst in the underground organs, variations were observed mainly in relation to the transects. Marked differences in the pattern of the above-ground biomass production between these two grasses relative to their location in the Reserve were also observed, with two peaks of the invasive species (July and January) at the Reserve border. The differences in carbohydrate accumulation, partitioning and composition of individual sugars concerning time of the year and location in the Reserve were more related to the annual growth cycle of both grasses and possibly to specific physiological responses of M. minutiflora to disturbed environments in the Reserve border.