Seasonal incidence of Stenodiplosis sorghicola (Coquillett) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) and its parasitoids on Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers. in south-eastern Queensland, Australia

To quantify the role of Johnson grass, Sorghum halepense, in the population dynamics of the sorghum midge, Stenodiplosis sorghicola, patterns of flowering of Johnson grass and infestation by sorghum midge were studied in two different climatic environments in the Lockyer Valley and on the Darling Downs in south-eastern Queensland for 3 years. Parasitism levels of S. sorghicola were also recorded. In the Lockyer Valley, Johnson grass panicles were produced throughout the year but on the Darling Downs none were produced between June and September. In both areas, most panicle production occurred between November and March and infestation by S. sorghicola was the greatest during this period. The parasitism levels were between 20% and 50%. After emergence from winter diapause, one to two generations of S. sorghicola developed on S. halepense before commercial grain sorghum crops were available for infestation. Parasitoids recorded were: Aprostocetus diplosidis, Eupelmus australiensis and two species of Tetrastichus. Relationships between sorghum midge population growth rate and various environmental and population variables were investigated. Population size had a significant negative effect (P < 0.0001) on population growth rate. Mortality due to parasitism showed a significant positive density response (P < 0.0001). Temperature, rainfall, open pan evaporation, degree-days and host availability showed no significant effect on population growth rate. Given the phenology of sorghum production in south-eastern Queensland, Johnson grass provides an important bridging host, sustaining one to two generations of sorghum midge. Critical studies relating population change and build-up in sorghum to sorghum midge populations in Johnson grass are yet to be performed.

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Seasonal aspects of leukemia

An investigation of (a) month/season-of-birth as a risk factor and (b) month/season-of-treatment initation as a prognostic factor in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in children, 0-15 years of age, was conducted. The study population used was that of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute and included children diagnosed and treated for ALL from 1973-1986. Two separate sets of analyses using different exclusion criteria led to similar results. Specifically, the inability to reject the null hypothesis of no significant difference in the variation of monthly/seasonal incidence rates among children residing within the 10 SEER sites using either cosinor analysis or one-way analysis of variance. No association was established between month/season of treatment initiation and survival in ALL among children using either Kaplan-Meier or cosinor analysis. In separate Kaplan-Meier analyses, age, gender, and treatment type were each found to be significant univariate prognostic factors for survival, however. ^

Phenology of Carpophilus spp. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae)in stone fruit orchards as determined by pheromone trapping: Implications for prediction of crop damage

Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromone and fermenting bread dough were used to monitor seasonal incidence and abundance of the ripening fruit pests, Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), C. mutilatus Erichson and C. davidsoni Dobson in stone fruit orchards in the Leeton district of southern New South Wales during five seasons (1991-96). Adult beetles were trapped from September-May, but abundance varied considerably between years with the amount of rainfall in December-January having a major influence on population size and damage potential during the canning peach harvest (late February-March). Below average rainfall in December-January was associated with mean trap catches of < 10 beetles/trap/week in low dose pheromone traps during the harvest period in 1991/92 and 1993/94 and no reported damage to ripening fruit. Rainfall in December-January 1992/93 was more than double the average and mean trap catches ranged from 8-27 beetles/week during the harvest period with substantial damage to the peach crop. December-January rainfall was also above average in 1994/95 and 1995/96 and means of 50-300 beetles/trap/week were recorded in high dose pheromone traps during harvest periods. Carpophilus spp. caused economic damage to peach crops in both seasons. These data indicate that it may be possible to predict the likelihood of Carpophilus beetle damage to ripening stone fruit in inland areas of southern Australia, by routine pheromone-based monitoring of beetle populations and summer temperatures and rainfall.

The effect of salinity on some endocommensalic ciliates from shipworms

The ciliates, Nucleocorbula adherens, Boveria teredinidi, Trichodina balakrishnia, Thingmozoon fencheli and Nyctothereus marina, live inside the mantle cavity of the shipworms in the estuaries and backwaters of the south-west coast of India. Seasonal incidence and relative abundance of these ciliates showed that they were more abundant during the low saline than the high saline periods. Even though these ciliates can endure higher salinities through gradual acclimatization of their habitat it was found that they prefer low salinity for active growth and healthy existence.

Cowpox: reservoir hosts and geographic range

It is generally accepted that the reservoir hosts of cowpox virus are wild rodents, although direct evidence for this is lacking for much of the virus's geographic range. Here, through a combination of serology and PCR, we demonstrate conclusively that the main hosts in Great Britain are bank voles, wood mice and short-tailed field voles. However, we also suggest that wood mice may not be able to maintain infection alone, explaining the absence of cowpox from Ireland where voles are generally not found. Infection in wild rodents varies seasonally, and this variation probably underlies the marked seasonal incidence of infection in accidental hosts such as humans and domestic cats.

Epidemiology of sheep myiases in São Paulo State, Brazil

A survey of Diptera species causing cutaneous myiases on sheep in Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil was made to determine seasonal incidence, predilection sites and the factors predisposing to infestation. Sheep were checked daily for myiases for one year. At two week intervals larvae from wounds were collected for identification. Only larvae of Dermatobia hominis and Cochliomyia hominivorax were found. Myiases due to C. hominivorax were observed during the whole year with high incidence from January to April. The feet, vulva, tail and scrotum were most frequently infested. Wounds were the commonest predisposing factor. © 1992 Centre for Tropical Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh.

Quantitative trends in airborne loads of Celtis sinensis pollen and associations with meteorological variables in a subtropical Australian environment

Celtis sinensis is an introduced plant species to the southeastern region of Queensland that has had a destructive affect on indigenous plant Communities and its pollen has been identified as an allergen Source. Pollen belonging to C. sinensis was sampled during a 5-year (June 1994-May 1999) atmospheric pollen-monitoring programme in Brisbane, Australia, using a Burkard 7-day spore trap. The seasonal incidence of airborne C. sinensis pollen (CsP) in Brisbane occurred over a brief period each year during spring (August-September), while peak concentrations were restricted to the beginning of September. individual CsP seasons were heterogeneous with daily counts within the range 1-10 grains m(-3) on no more than 60 sampling days; however, smaller airborne concentrations of CsP were recorded out of each season. Correlation co-efficients were significant each year for temperature (p0.05) and relative humidity (p>0.05). A significant relationship (r(2)=0.81, p=0.036) was established between the total CsP count and pre-seasonal average maximum temperature; however, periods of precipitation (>2mm) were demonstrated to significantly lower the daily concentrations of CsP from the atmosphere. Given the environmental and clinical significance of CsP and its prevalence in the atmosphere of Brisbane, a Clinical population-based Study is required to further understand the pollen's importance as a seasonal sensitizing source in this region.

Canine and Feline Diabetes Mellitus: Nature or Nurture?

There is evidence for the role of genetic and environmental factors in feline and canine diabetes. Type 2 diabetes is the most common form of diabetes in cats. Evidence for genetic factors in feline diabetes includes the overrepresentation of Burmese cats with diabetes. Environmental risk factors in domestic or Burmese cats include advancing age, obesity, male gender, neutering, drug treatment, physical inactivity, and indoor confinement. High-carbohydrate diets increase blood glucose and insulin levels and may predispose cats to obesity and diabetes. Low-carbohydrate, high-protein diets may help prevent diabetes in cats at risk such as obese cats or lean cats with underlying low insulin sensitivity. Evidence exists for a genetic basis and altered immune response in the pathogenesis of canine diabetes. Seasonal effects on the incidence of diagnosis indicate that there are environmental influences on disease progression. At least 50% of diabetic dogs have type 1 diabetes based on present evidence of immune destruction of P-cells. Epidemiological factors closely match those of the latent autoimmune diabetes of adults form of human type 1 diabetes. Extensive pancreatic damage, likely from chronic pancreatitis, causes similar to28% of canine diabetes cases. Environmental factors such as feeding of high-fat diets are potentially associated with pancreatitis and likely play a role in the development of pancreatitis in diabetic dogs. There are no published data showing that overt type 2 diabetes occurs in dogs or that obesity is a risk factor for canine diabetes. Diabetes diagnosed in a bitch during either pregnancy or diestrus is comparable to human gestational diabetes.

Prevalence, severity, and heritability of Stephanofilaria lesions on cattle in central and southern Queensland, Australia

Observations of cattle in central and southern Queensland are collated to de. ne the prevalence and area of Stephanofilaria lesions associated with infestations of the buffalo fly, Haematobia irritans exigua. The observations were made on herds that were being used for other purposes. In a survey of similar to 1500 animals at Belmont in central Queensland in 1982, 98% of cows and 70% of calves had lesions. Most lesions were on the neck and dewlap and 10% were raw and weeping at the time of sampling. The total area of lesions per animal was strongly related to cattle breed and age. Old Bos taurus animals had the greatest area of lesions, whereas young Bos indicus had the least. Heritability estimates were low, averaging 0.01 for calves and 0.18 for cows. A smaller survey of cows and steers at Craighoyle in central Queensland in 1986 showed a higher numbers of lesions and positive correlations between the total lesion area and animal size. The lesion area increased with tick survival, suggesting that tick-resistant animals are also resistant to Stephanofilaria infection. Steers had smaller areas of lesions than cows, as found previously with cattle ticks. Long-term monitoring observations in central and southern Queensland between 1981 and 1986 showed that the total area of lesions was seasonal with a peak in late summer, consistent with the seasonal incidence of buffalo fly. Animals segregated into Low and High lesion herds maintained their differences over time. The lesions penetrated the dermis of the cattle hides and rendered the affected area unusable, but few lesions occurred on valuable parts of the hide so such economic effects are likely to be insignificant. One animal nearly died of a haemorrhage from a lesion on the dewlap and had to be treated. The results can inform policy on buffalo fly control, and biosecurity preparations in relation to the potential establishment of the OldWorld screw-worm fly, Chrysomyia bezziana, in Australia, which will be facilitated by the lesions. The results emphasise the significant animal welfare and biosecurity risks posed by the lesions in northern Australia.

Analysing Seasonal Health Data

Seasonal patterns have been found in a remarkable range of health conditions, including birth defects, respiratory infections and cardiovascular disease. Accurately estimating the size and timing of seasonal peaks in disease incidence is an aid to understanding the causes and possibly to developing interventions. With global warming increasing the intensity of seasonal weather patterns around the world, a review of the methods for estimating seasonal effects on health is timely. This is the first book on statistical methods for seasonal data written for a health audience. It describes methods for a range of outcomes (including continuous, count and binomial data) and demonstrates appropriate techniques for summarising and modelling these data. It has a practical focus and uses interesting examples to motivate and illustrate the methods. The statistical procedures and example data sets are available in an R package called ‘season’. Adrian Barnett is a senior research fellow at Queensland University of Technology, Australia. Annette Dobson is a Professor of Biostatistics at The University of Queensland, Australia. Both are experienced medical statisticians with a commitment to statistical education and have previously collaborated in research in the methodological developments and applications of biostatistics, especially to time series data. Among other projects, they worked together on revising the well-known textbook "An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models," third edition, Chapman Hall/CRC, 2008. In their new book they share their knowledge of statistical methods for examining seasonal patterns in health.

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Background Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Methods Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. Results There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. Conclusions The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

Rapid increase in scrub typhus incidence in Mainland China, 2006-2014

Scrub typhus is a vector-borne disease, which has recently reemerged in China. In this study, we describe the distribution and incidence of scrub typhus cases in China from 2006 to 2014 and quantify differences in scrub typhus cases with respect to sex, age, and occupation. The results of our study indicate that the annual incidence of scrub typhus has increased during the study period. The number of cases peaked in 2014, which was 12.8 times greater than the number of cases reported in 2006. Most (77.97%) of the cases were reported in five provinces (Guangdong, Yunnan, Anhui, Fujian, and Shandong). Our study also demonstrates that the incidence rate of scrub typhus was significantly higher in females compared to males (P < 0.001) and was highest in the 60–69 year age group, and that farmers had a higher incidence rate than non farmers (P < 0.001). Different seasonal trends were identified in the number of reported cases between the northern and southern provinces of China. These findings not only demonstrate that China has experienced a large increase in scrub typhus incidence, but also document an expansion in the geographic distribution throughout the country.

Field evaluation of tolerance to Tobacco streak virus in sunflower germplasm, and observations of seasonal disease spread

Strong statistical evidence was found for differences in tolerance to natural infections of Tobacco streak virus (TSV) in sunflower hybrids. Data from 470 plots involving 23 different sunflower hybrids tested in multiple trials over 5 years in Australia were analysed. Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Logistic Regression model for analysis provided: (i) a rigorous method for investigating the relative effects of hybrid, seasonal rainfall and proximity to inoculum source on the incidence of severe TSV disease; (ii) a natural method for estimating the probability distributions of disease incidence in different hybrids under historical rainfall conditions; and (iii) a method for undertaking all pairwise comparisons of disease incidence between hybrids whilst controlling the familywise error rate without any drastic reduction in statistical power. The tolerance identified in field trials was effective against the main TSV strain associated with disease outbreaks, TSV-parthenium. Glasshouse tests indicate this tolerance to also be effective against the other TSV strain found in central Queensland, TSV-crownbeard. The use of tolerant germplasm is critical to minimise the risk of TSV epidemics in sunflower in this region. We found strong statistical evidence that rainfall during the early growing months of March and April had a negative effect on the incidence of severe infection with greatly reduced disease incidence in years that had high rainfall during this period.

Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008

Objectives: To investigate seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008.
Methods: 23 population-based registers recorded date of diagnosis in new cases of clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes in children aged under 15 years. Completeness of ascertainment was assessed through capture-recapture methodology and was high in most centres. A general test for seasonal variation (11df) and Edward's test for sinusoidal (sine wave) variation (2df) were employed. Time series methods were also used to investigate if meteorological data were predictive of monthly counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.
Results: Significant seasonal variation was apparent in all but two small centres, with an excess of cases apparent in the winter quarter. Significant sinusoidal pattern was also evident in all but two small centres with peaks in December (14 centres), January (5 centres) or February (2 centres). Relative amplitude varied from ±11% to ±39% (median ±18%). There was no relationship across the centres between relative amplitude and incidence level. However there was evidence of significant deviation from the sinusoidal pattern in the majority of centres. Pooling results over centres, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, but with significantly less variation in those aged under 5 years. Boys showed marginally greater seasonal variation than girls. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four sub-periods of the 20 year period. In most centres monthly counts of cases were not associated with deviations from normal monthly average temperature or sunshine hours; short term meteorological variations do not explain numbers of cases diagnosed.
Conclusions: Seasonality with a winter excess is apparent in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5s show less marked variation. The seasonal pattern changed little in the 20 year period.