Wet season resting - economic insights from scenario modelling

Pasture degradation, particularly that attributable to overgrazing, is a significant problem across the northern Australian rangelands. Although grazing studies have identified the scope for wet season resting strategies to be used to rehabilitate degraded pastures, the economic outcome of these strategies has not been extensively demonstrated. An exploratory study of the prospective economic value of wet season resting is presented using an economic simulation model of a 28000 ha beef enterprise located in the Charters Towers region of north-eastern Australia to explore seven hypothetical scenarios centred on the projected performance of a wet season resting strategy. A series of 20-year simulations for a range of pasture recovery profiles, stocking capacity, animal productivity responses, beef prices and agistment options are compared with a baseline scenario of taking no action. Estimates of the net present value of the 20-year difference in total enterprise gross margins between the various resting options and the 'do nothing' option identify that wet season resting can offer a positive economic return for the range of scenarios examined, although this is contingent on the assumptions that are made concerning the trajectories of change in carrying capacity and animal productivity. Some implications for management and policy making to support the practical implementation of wet season resting strategies are discussed.

Knowledge based crime scenario modelling

A crucial concern in the evaluation of evidence related to a major crime is the formulation of sufficient alternative plausible scenarios that can explain the available evidence. However, software aimed at assisting human crime investigators by automatically constructing crime scenarios from evidence is difficult to develop because of the almost infinite variation of plausible crime scenarios. This paper introduces a novel knowledge driven methodology for crime scenario construction and it presents a decision support system based on it. The approach works by storing the component events of the scenarios instead of entire scenarios and by providing an algorithm that can instantiate and compose these component events into useful scenarios. The scenario composition approach is highly adaptable to unanticipated cases because it allows component events to match the case under investigation in many different ways. Given a description of the available evidence, it generates a network of plausible scenarios that can then be analysed to devise effective evidence collection strategies. The applicability of the ideas presented here are demonstrated by means of a realistic example and prototype decision support software.

Efficient safety message dissemination for cooperative collision warning via context modelling

A Cooperative Collision Warning System (CCWS) is an active safety techno- logy for road vehicles that can potentially reduce traffic accidents. It provides a driver with situational awareness and early warnings of any possible colli- sions through an on-board unit. CCWS is still under active research, and one of the important technical problems is safety message dissemination. Safety messages are disseminated in a high-speed mobile environment using wireless communication technology such as Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC). The wireless communication in CCWS has a limited bandwidth and can become unreliable when used inefficiently, particularly given the dynamic nature of road traffic conditions. Unreliable communication may significantly reduce the performance of CCWS in preventing collisions. There are two types of safety messages: Routine Safety Messages (RSMs) and Event Safety Messages (ESMs). An RSM contains the up-to-date state of a vehicle, and it must be disseminated repeatedly to its neighbouring vehicles. An ESM is a warning message that must be sent to all the endangered vehi- cles. Existing RSM and ESM dissemination schemes are inefficient, unscalable, and unable to give priority to vehicles in the most danger. Thus, this study investigates more efficient and scalable RSM and ESM dissemination schemes that can make use of the context information generated from a particular traffic scenario. Therefore, this study tackles three technical research prob- lems, vehicular traffic scenario modelling and context information generation, context-aware RSM dissemination, and context-aware ESM dissemination. The most relevant context information in CCWS is the information about possible collisions among vehicles given a current vehicular traffic situation. To generate the context information, this study investigates techniques to model interactions among multiple vehicles based on their up-to-date motion state obtained via RSM. To date, there is no existing model that can represent interactions among multiple vehicles in a speciffic region and at a particular time. The major outcome from the first problem is a new interaction graph model that can be used to easily identify the endangered vehicles and their danger severity. By identifying the endangered vehicles, RSM and ESM dis- semination can be optimised while improving safety at the same time. The new model enables the development of context-aware RSM and ESM dissemination schemes. To disseminate RSM efficiently, this study investigates a context-aware dis- semination scheme that can optimise the RSM dissemination rate to improve safety in various vehicle densities. The major outcome from the second problem is a context-aware RSM dissemination protocol. The context-aware protocol can adaptively adjust the dissemination rate based on an estimated channel load and danger severity of vehicle interactions given by the interaction graph model. Unlike existing RSM dissemination schemes, the proposed adaptive scheme can reduce channel congestion and improve safety by prioritising ve- hicles that are most likely to crash with other vehicles. The proposed RSM protocol has been implemented and evaluated by simulation. The simulation results have shown that the proposed RSM protocol outperforms existing pro- tocols in terms of efficiency, scalability and safety. To disseminate ESM efficiently, this study investigates a context-aware ESM dissemination scheme that can reduce unnecessary transmissions and deliver ESMs to endangered vehicles as fast as possible. The major outcome from the third problem is a context-aware ESM dissemination protocol that uses a multicast routing strategy. Existing ESM protocols use broadcast rout- ing, which is not efficient because ESMs may be sent to a large number of ve- hicles in the area. Using multicast routing improves efficiency because ESMs are sent only to the endangered vehicles. The endangered vehicles can be identified using the interaction graph model. The proposed ESM protocol has been implemented and evaluated by simulation. The simulation results have shown that the proposed ESM protocol can prevent potential accidents from occurring better than existing ESM protocols. The context model and the RSM and ESM dissemination protocols can be implemented in any CCWS development to improve the communication and safety performance of CCWS. In effect, the outcomes contribute to the realisation of CCWS that will ultimately improve road safety and save lives.

Moldels for reproducing the damage scenario of the Lorca earthquake

A damage scenario modelling is developed and compared with the damage distribution observed after the 2011 Lorca earthquake. The strong ground motion models considered include five modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) amply used worldwide. Capacity and fragility curves from the Risk-UE project are utilized to model building vulnerability and expected damage. Damage estimates resulting from different combinations of GMPE and capacity/fragility curves are compared with the actual damage scenario, establishing the combination that best explains the observed damage distribution. In addition, some recommendations are proposed, including correction factors in fragility curves in order to reproduce in a better way the observed damage in masonry and reinforce concrete buildings. The lessons learned would contribute to improve the simulation of expected damages due to future earthquakes in Lorca or other regions in Spain with similar characteristics regarding attenuation and vulnerability.

Improved salinity management for the Nebine / Mungallala / Wallam catchment

The low stream salinity naturally in the Nebine-Mungallala Catchment, extent of vegetation retention, relatively low rainfall and high evaporation indicates that there is a relatively low risk of rising shallow groundwater tables in the catchment. Scalding caused by wind and water erosion exposing highly saline sub-soils is a more important regional issue, such as in the Homeboin area. Local salinisation associated with evaporation of bore water from free flowing bore drains and bores is also an important land degradation issue particularly in the lower Nebine, Wallam and Mungallala Creeks. The replacement of free flowing artesian bores and bore drains with capped bores and piped water systems under the Great Artesian Basin bore rehabilitation program is addressing local salinisation and scalding in the vicinity of bore drains and preventing the discharge of saline bore water to streams. Three principles for the prevention and control of salinity in the Nebine Mungallala catchment have been identified in this review: • Avoid salinity through avoiding scalds – i.e. not exposing the near-surface salt in landscape through land degradation; • Riparian zone management: Scalding often occurs within 200m or so of watering lines. Natural drainage lines are most likely to be overstocked, and thus have potential for scalding. Scalding begins when vegetation is removed, and without that binding cover, wind and water erosion exposes the subsoil; and • Monitoring of exposed or grazed soil areas. Based on the findings of the study, we make the following recommendations: 1. Undertake a geotechnical study of existing maps and other data to help identify and target areas most at risk of rising water tables causing salinity. Selected monitoring should then be established using piezometers as an early warning system. 2. SW NRM should financially support scald reclamation activity through its various funding programs. However, for this to have any validity in the overall management of salinity risk, it is critical that such funding require the landholder to undertake a salinity hazard/risk assessment of his/her holding. 3. A staged approach to funding may be appropriate. In the first instance, it would be reasonable to commence funding some pilot scald reclamation work with a view to further developing and piloting the farm hazard/risk assessment tools, and exploring how subsequent grazing management strategies could be incorporated within other extension and management activities. Once the details of the necessary farm level activities have been more clearly defined, and following the outcomes of the geotechnical review recommended above, a more comprehensive funding package could be rolled out to priority areas. 4. We recommend that best-practice grazing management training currently on offer should be enhanced with information about salinity risk in scald-prone areas, and ways of minimising the likelihood of scald formation. 5. We recommend that course material be developed for local students in Years 6 and 7, and that arrangements be made with local schools to present this information. Given the constraints of existing syllabi, we envisage that negotiations may have to be undertaken with the Department of Education in order for this material to be permitted to be used. We have contact with key people who could help in this if required. 6. We recommend that SW NRM continue to support existing extension activities such as Grazing Land Management and the Monitoring Made Easy tools. These aids should be able to be easily expanding to incorporate techniques for monitoring, addressing and preventing salinity and scalding. At the time of writing staff of SW NRM were actively involved in this process. It is important that these activities are adequately resourced to facilitate the uptake by landholders of the perception that salinity is an issue that needs to be addressed as part of everyday management. 7. We recommend that SW NRM consider investing in the development and deployment of a scenario-modelling learning support tool as part of the awareness raising and education activities. Secondary salinity is a dynamic process that results from ongoing human activity which mobilises and/or exposes salt occurring naturally in the landscape. Time scales can be short to very long, and the benefits of management actions can similarly have immediate or very long time frames. One way to help explain the dynamics of these processes is through scenario modelling.

Developing tools to support complex infrastructure decision-making

Purpose – The rapidly changing role of capital city airports has placed demands on surrounding infrastructure. The need for infrastructure management and coordination is increasing as airports and cities grow and share common infrastructure frameworks. The purpose of this paper is to document the changing context in Australia, where the privatisation of airports has stimulated considerable land development with resulting pressures on surrounding infrastructure provision. It aims to describe a tool that is being developed to support decision-making between various stakeholders in the airport region. The use of planning support systems improves both communication and data transfer between stakeholders and provides a foundation for complex decisions on infrastructure. Design/methodology/approach – The research uses a case study approach and focuses on Brisbane International Airport and Brisbane City Council. The research is primarily descriptive and provides an empirical assessment of the challenges of developing and implementing planning support systems as a tool for governance and decision-making. Findings – The research assesses the challenges in implementing a common data platform for stakeholders. Agency data platforms and models, traditional roles in infrastructure planning, and integrating similar data platforms all provide barriers to sharing a common language. The use of a decision support system has to be shared by all stakeholders with a common platform that can be versatile enough to support scenarios and changing conditions. The use of iPadss for scenario modelling provides stakeholders the opportunity to interact, compare scenarios and views, and react with the modellers to explore other options. Originality/value – The research confirms that planning support systems have to be accessible and interactive by their users. The Airport City concept is a new and evolving focus for airport development and will place continuing pressure on infrastructure servicing. A coordinated and efficient approach to infrastructure decision-making is critical, and an interactive planning support system that can model infrastructure scenarios provides a sound tool for governance.

Specification of optimum holistic building environmental and energy performance information to support informed decision making

Political drivers such as the Kyoto protocol, the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive and the Energy end use and Services Directive have been implemented in response to an identified need for a reduction in human related CO2 emissions. Buildings account for a significant portion of global CO2 emissions, approximately 25-30%, and it is widely acknowledged by industry and research organisations that they operate inefficiently. In parallel, unsatisfactory indoor environmental conditions have proven to negatively impact occupant productivity. Legislative drivers and client education are seen as the key motivating factors for an improvement in the holistic environmental and energy performance of a building. A symbiotic relationship exists between building indoor environmental conditions and building energy consumption. However traditional Building Management Systems and Energy Management Systems treat these separately. Conventional performance analysis compares building energy consumption with a previously recorded value or with the consumption of a similar building and does not recognise the fact that all buildings are unique. Therefore what is required is a new framework which incorporates performance comparison against a theoretical building specific ideal benchmark. Traditionally Energy Managers, who work at the operational level of organisations with respect to building performance, do not have access to ideal performance benchmark information and as a result cannot optimally operate buildings. This thesis systematically defines Holistic Environmental and Energy Management and specifies the Scenario Modelling Technique which in turn uses an ideal performance benchmark. The holistic technique uses quantified expressions of building performance and by doing so enables the profiled Energy Manager to visualise his actions and the downstream consequences of his actions in the context of overall building operation. The Ideal Building Framework facilitates the use of this technique by acting as a Building Life Cycle (BLC) data repository through which ideal building performance benchmarks are systematically structured and stored in parallel with actual performance data. The Ideal Building Framework utilises transformed data in the form of the Ideal Set of Performance Objectives and Metrics which are capable of defining the performance of any building at any stage of the BLC. It is proposed that the union of Scenario Models for an individual building would result in a building specific Combination of Performance Metrics which would in turn be stored in the BLC data repository. The Ideal Data Set underpins the Ideal Set of Performance Objectives and Metrics and is the set of measurements required to monitor the performance of the Ideal Building. A Model View describes the unique building specific data relevant to a particular project stakeholder. The energy management data and information exchange requirements that underlie a Model View implementation are detailed and incorporate traditional and proposed energy management. This thesis also specifies the Model View Methodology which complements the Ideal Building Framework. The developed Model View and Rule Set methodology process utilises stakeholder specific rule sets to define stakeholder pertinent environmental and energy performance data. This generic process further enables each stakeholder to define the resolution of data desired. For example, basic, intermediate or detailed. The Model View methodology is applicable for all project stakeholders, each requiring its own customised rule set. Two rule sets are defined in detail, the Energy Manager rule set and the LEED Accreditor rule set. This particular measurement generation process accompanied by defined View would filter and expedite data access for all stakeholders involved in building performance. Information presentation is critical for effective use of the data provided by the Ideal Building Framework and the Energy Management View definition. The specifications for a customised Information Delivery Tool account for the established profile of Energy Managers and best practice user interface design. Components of the developed tool could also be used by Facility Managers working at the tactical and strategic levels of organisations. Informed decision making is made possible through specified decision assistance processes which incorporate the Scenario Modelling and Benchmarking techniques, the Ideal Building Framework, the Energy Manager Model View, the Information Delivery Tool and the established profile of Energy Managers. The Model View and Rule Set Methodology is effectively demonstrated on an appropriate mixed use existing ‘green’ building, the Environmental Research Institute at University College Cork, using the Energy Management and LEED rule sets. Informed Decision Making is also demonstrated using a prototype scenario for the demonstration building.

The application of Regional Climate Model output for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios

This study investigates the possibilities and limitations of using Regional Climate Model (RCM) output for the simulation of alpine permafrost scenarios. It focuses on the general problem of scale mismatch between RCMs and impact models and, in particular, the special challenges that arise when driving an impact model in topographically complex high-mountain environments with the output of an RCM. Two approaches are introduced that take into account the special difficulties in such areas, and thus enable the use of RCM for alpine permafrost scenario modelling. Intended as an initial example, they are applied at the area of Corvatsch (Upper Engadine, Switzerland) in order to demonstrate and discuss the application of the two approaches, rather than to provide an assessment of future changes in permafrost occurrence. There are still many uncertainties and inaccuracies inherent in climate and impact models, which increase when driving one model with the output of the other. Nevertheless, our study shows that the use of RCMs offers new and promising perspectives for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios

Unauthorised human use of an urban coastal wetland sanctuary: current and future patterns

Urban expansion brings profound impacts and challenges to many ecosystems, including wetlands. Unauthorised public access to wetland sanctuaries can lead to a number of management problems, such as increasing disturbance to migratory shorebirds. We investigate unauthorised human use of a coastal urban wetland located in Melbourne, Australia, and use current results to predict future patterns of visitation under different management and urban development scenarios. Despite being officially closed to the public, 20.8% of the 574 ha wetland experienced human intrusions during the sampling period. These were most frequent in the section which directly abuts residential development where over 50% of the wetland experienced intrusions. The most frequently observed activities were walking (4.8 ± 4.9 intrusions per observation day), dog walking (8.5 ± 4.5), cycling (3.0 ± 1.8) and motorised trail bike riding (2.5 ± 1.0). There were significant negative relationships between the occurrence of intrusions and distance from the wetland boundary and access points. Walkers and dog walkers were likely to intrude more deeply into the wetlands than other users. We predict that once residential development is completed around the entire perimeter of the wetland that 48% of the total area will be subject to intrusions. This will increase to 58.8% if internal management tracks are opened for public use. We recommend that the current access policy is maintained, and compliance is enhanced through education and additional physical barriers. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Zum Transport von partikelgebundenen Schadstoffen in der ungesättigten Zone

Bei einer Risikoabschätzung bezüglich einer Gefährdung des Schutzgutes Grundwasser müssen alle relevanten Transportpfade, auf denen Schadstoffe durch die Bodenzone bis ins Grundwasser verlagert werden, identifiziert und quantifiziert werden. Die Verlagerung von Schadstoffen gebunden an mobile Partikel im Sickerwasser wird dabei oft vernachlässigt. In dieser Arbeit wurden sowohl experimentelle Untersuchungen zum Partikeltransport in der Bodenzone als auch Szenarienmodellierungen hinsichtlich der Wechselwirkung Partikel/Schadstoff durchgeführt. Die experimentellen ungesättigten Säulenversuche wurden unter naturnahen stationären und instationären hydraulischen und hydrochemischen Bedingungen durchgeführt. Dabei wurde der Einfluss der Parameter Durchmesser Bodenmatrix, Partikelgröße, Beregnungsintensität, Oberflächenspannung und Hydrochemie auf den Transport von natürlichen und synthetischen Partikeln untersucht. Des Weiteren wurden Untersuchungen zur partikelgebundenen Verlagerung von Phenanthren durchgeführt. In einer numerischen Szenarienmodellierung mit dem Modell SMART wurde untersucht, unter welchen Randbedingungen der Transport von Partikeln gleichzeitig zu signifikanten partikelgebundenen Schadstoffkonzentrationen im Grundwasser führt. Dabei wurden die Parameter Lithologie Partikel/Boden, Hydrophobizität Schadstoff, Partikelkonzentration, Partikeldurchmesser sowie Körnung Bodenmatrix variiert. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigen, dass der partikelgebundene Schadstofftransportpfad in der ungesättigten Bodenzone in verschiedenen Szenarien den Anteil mobiler Schadstoffe, die mit dem Sickerwasser ins Grundwasser gelangen, signifikant erhöht. Auf Basis der experimentellen und theoretischen Untersuchungen wurde ein zweistufiges Bewertungsschema entwickelt, das bereits im Vorfeld einer Risikoabschätzung als Entscheidungshilfe hinsichtlich der Relevanz einer Mobilisierung, eines Transports und des Rückhalts von partikelgebundenen Schadstoffen in der ungesättigten Zone dient.

Geographic information system-based decision support for soil conservation planning in Tajikistan

Soil erosion on sloping agricultural land poses a serious problem for the environment, as well as for production. In areas with highly erodible soils, such as those in loess zones, application of soil and water conservation measures is crucial to sustain agricultural yields and to prevent or reduce land degradation. The present study, carried out in Faizabad, Tajikistan, was designed to evaluate the potential of local conservation measures on cropland using a spatial modelling approach to provide decision-making support for the planning of spatially explicit sustainable land use. A sampling design to support comparative analysis between well-conserved units and other field units was established in order to estimate factors that determine water erosion, according to the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Such factor-based approaches allow ready application using a geographic information system (GIS) and facilitate straightforward scenario modelling in areas with limited data resources. The study showed first that assessment of erosion and conservation in an area with inhomogeneous vegetation cover requires the integration of plot-based cover. Plot-based vegetation cover can be effectively derived from high-resolution satellite imagery, providing a useful basis for plot-wise conservation planning. Furthermore, thorough field assessments showed that 25.7% of current total cropland is covered by conservation measures (terracing, agroforestry and perennial herbaceous fodder). Assessment of the effectiveness of these local measures, combined with the RUSLE calculations, revealed that current average soil loss could be reduced through low-cost measures such as contouring (by 11%), fodder plants (by 16%), and drainage ditches (by 53%). More expensive measures such as terracing and agroforestry can reduce erosion by as much as 63% (for agroforestry) and 93% (for agroforestry combined with terracing). Indeed, scenario runs for different levels of tolerable erosion rates showed that more cost-intensive and technologically advanced measures would lead to greater reduction of soil loss. However, given economic conditions in Tajikistan, it seems advisable to support the spread of low-cost and labourextensive measures.

Regional and urban air quality modelling under a climate change scenario

The better understanding of the interactions between climate change and air quality is an emerging priority for research and policy. Climate change will bring changes in the climate system, which will affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants. The main objective of the current study is to assess the impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 over Portugal and Porto urban area. First, an evaluation and characterization of the air quality over mainland Portugal was performed for the period between 2002 and 2012. The results show that NO2, PM10 and O3 are the critical pollutants in Portugal. Also, the influence of meteorology on O3, NO2 and PM10 levels was investigate in the national main urban areas (Porto and Lisboa) and was verified that O3 has a statistically significant relationship with temperature in most of the components. The results also indicate that emission control strategies are primary regulators for NO2 and PM10 levels. After, understanding the national air quality problems and the influence that meteorology had in the historical air quality levels, the air quality modelling system WRF-CAMx was tested and the required inputs for the simulations were prepared to fulfil the main goal of this work. For the required air quality modelling inputs, an Emission Projections under RCP scenarios (EmiPro-RCP) model was developed to assist the estimation of future emission inventories for GHG and common air pollutants. Also, the current emissions were estimated for Portugal with a higher detailed disaggregation to improve the performance of the air quality simulations. The air quality modelling system WRF/CAMx was tested and evaluated over Portugal and Porto urban area and the results point out that is an adequate tool for the analysis of air quality under climate change. For this purpose, regional simulations of air quality during historical period and future (2045-2050) were conducted with CAMx version 6.0 to evaluate the impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the study area. The climate and the emission projections were produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results from the simulations point out, that if the anthropogenic emissions keep the same in 2050, the concentrations of NO2, PM10 and O3 will increase in Portugal. When, besides the climate change effects, is consider the projected anthropogenic emissions the annual mean concentrations of NO2 decrease significantly in Portugal and Porto urban area, and on the contrary the annual mean PM10 concentrations increases in Portugal and decrease in Porto urban area. The O3 results are mainly caused by the reduction of ozone precursors, getting the higher reductions in urban areas and increases in the surrounding areas. All the analysis performed for both simulations for Porto urban area support that, for PM10 and O3, there will be an increase in the occurrence of extreme values, surpassing the annual legislated parameters and having more daily exceedances. This study constitutes an innovative scientific tool to help in future air quality management in order to mitigate future climate change impacts on air quality.

Catchment phosphorous losses: an export coefficient modelling approach with scenario analysis for water management

This paper presents the development of an export coefficient model to characterise the rates and sources of P export from land to water in four reservoir systems located in a semi-arid rural region in southern of Portugal. The model was developed to enable effective management of these important water resource systems under the EU Water Framework Directive. This is the first time such an approach has been fully adapted for the semi-arid systems typical of Mediterranean Europe. The sources of P loading delivered to each reservoir from its catchment were determined and scenario analysis was undertaken to predict the likely impact of catchment management strategies on the scale of rate of P loading delivered to each water body from its catchment. The results indicate the importance of farming and sewage treatment works/collective septic tanks discharges as the main contributors to the total diffuse and point source P loading delivered to the reservoirs, respectively. A reduction in the total P loading for all study areas would require control of farming practices and more efficient removal of P from human wastes prior to discharge to surface waters. The scenario analysis indicates a strategy based solely on reducing the agricultural P surplus may result in only a slow improvement in water quality, which would be unlikely to support the generation of good ecological status in reservoirs. The model application indicates that a reduction of P-inputs to the reservoirs should first focus on reducing P loading from sewage effluent discharges through the introduction of tertiary treatment (P-stripping) in all major residential areas. The fully calibrated export coefficient modelling approach transferred well to semi-arid regions, with the only significant limitation being the availability of suitable input data to drive the model. Further studies using this approach in semi-arid catchments are now needed to increase the knowledge of nutrient export behaviours in semi-arid regions.