Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: A case for reinforcing scenario design

This paper shows the role that some foresight tools, such as scenario design, may play in exploring the future impacts of global challenges in our contemporary Society. Additionally, it provides some clues about how to reinforce scenario design so that it displays more in-depth analysis without losing its qualitative nature and communication advantages. Since its inception in the early seventies, scenario design has become one of the most popular foresight tools used in several fields of knowledge. Nevertheless, its wide acceptance has not been seconded by the urban planning academic and professional realm. In some instances, scenario design is just perceived as a story telling technique that generates oversimplified future visions without the support of rigorous and sound analysis. As a matter of fact, the potential of scenario design for providing more in-depth analysis and for connecting with quantitative methods has been generally missed, giving arguments away to its critics. Based on these premises, this document tries to prove the capability of scenario design to anticipate the impacts of complex global challenges and to do it in a more analytical way. These assumptions are tested through a scenario design exercise which explores the future evolution of the sustainable development paradigm (SD) and its implications in the Spanish urban development model. In order to reinforce the perception of scenario design as a useful and added value instrument to urban planners, three sets of implications –functional, parametric and spatial— are displayed to provide substantial and in-depth information for policy makers. This study shows some major findings. First, it is feasible to set up a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and socioeconomic fabric of a given territory. Second, there are opportunities for innovating in the Spanish urban planning processes and city governance models. Third, as a foresight tool, scenario design can be substantially reinforced if proper efforts are made to display functional, parametric and spatial implications generated by the scenarios. Fourth, the study confirms that foresight offers interesting opportunities for urban planners, such as anticipating changes, formulating visions, fostering participation and building networks

IDEAS for Strategic Technology Management: Design of an electronically mediated scenario method

The age-old adage goes that nothing in this world lasts but change, and this generation has indeed seen changes that are unprecedented. Business managers do not have the luxury of going with the flow: they have to plan ahead, to think strategies that will meet the changing conditions, however stormy the weather seems to be. This demand raises the question of whether there is something a manager or planner can do to circumvent the eye of the storm in the future? Intuitively, one can either run on the risk of something happening without preparing, or one can try to prepare oneself. Preparing by planning for each eventuality and contingency would be impractical and prohibitively expensive, so one needs to develop foreknowledge, or foresight past the horizon of the present and the immediate future. The research mission in this study is to support strategic technology management by designing an effective and efficient scenario method to induce foresight to practicing managers. The design science framework guides this study in developing and evaluating the IDEAS method. The IDEAS method is an electronically mediated scenario method that is specifically designed to be an effective and accessible. The design is based on the state-of-the-art in scenario planning, and the product is a technology-based artifact to solve the foresight problem. This study demonstrates the utility, quality and efficacy of the artifact through a multi-method empirical evaluation study, first by experimental testing and secondly through two case studies. The construction of the artifact is rigorously documented as justification knowledge as well as the principles of form and function on the general level, and later through the description and evaluation of instantiations. This design contributes both to practice and foundation of the design. The IDEAS method contributes to the state-of-the-art in scenario planning by offering a light-weight and intuitive scenario method for resource constrained applications. Additionally, the study contributes to the foundations and methods of design by forging a clear design science framework which is followed rigorously. To summarize, the IDEAS method is offered for strategic technology management, with a confident belief that it will enable gaining foresight and aid the users to choose trajectories past the gales of creative destruction and off to a brighter future.

System Design: Alternative Individual Assessment Scenario

This is the scenario used in the course when individuals are unable to participate in group work. It includes a written case study of a diary farm, and several news articles that describe various views on the business of dairy farming.

Design methodology for multi-pumped discrete Raman amplifiers: case-study employing photonic crystal fibers

This paper proposes a new design methodology for discrete multi-pumped Raman amplifier. In a multi-objective optimization scenario, in a first step the whole solution-space is inspected by a CW analytical formulation. Then, the most promising solutions are fully investigated by a rigorous numerical treatment and the Raman amplification performance is thus determined by the combination of analytical and numerical approaches. As an application of our methodology we designed an photonic crystal fiber Raman amplifier configuration which provides low ripple, high gain, clear eye opening and a low power penalty. The amplifier configuration also enables to fully compensate the dispersion introduced by a 70-km singlemode fiber in a 10 Gbit/s system. We have successfully obtained a configuration with 8.5 dB average gain over the C-band and 0.71 dB ripple with almost zero eye-penalty using only two pump lasers with relatively low pump power. (C) 2009 Optical Society of America

Thermal/mechanical simulation and laboratory fatigue testing of an alternative yttria tetragonal zirconia polycrystal core-veneer all-ceramic layered crown design

This study evaluated the stress levels at the core layer and the veneer layer of zirconia crowns (comprising an alternative core design vs. a standard core design) under mechanical/thermal simulation, and subjected simulated models to laboratory mouth-motion fatigue. The dimensions of a mandibular first molar were imported into computer-aided design (CAD) software and a tooth preparation was modeled. A crown was designed using the space between the original tooth and the prepared tooth. The alternative core presented an additional lingual shoulder that lowered the veneer bulk of the cusps. Finite element analyses evaluated the residual maximum principal stresses fields at the core and veneer of both designs under loading and when cooled from 900 degrees C to 25 degrees C. Crowns were fabricated and mouth-motion fatigued, generating master Weibull curves and reliability data. Thermal modeling showed low residual stress fields throughout the bulk of the cusps for both groups. Mechanical simulation depicted a shift in stress levels to the core of the alternative design compared with the standard design. Significantly higher reliability was found for the alternative core. Regardless of the alternative configuration, thermal and mechanical computer simulations showed stress in the alternative core design comparable and higher to that of the standard configuration, respectively. Such a mechanical scenario probably led to the higher reliability of the alternative design under fatigue.

Improving the environmental performance of bedding products by using life cycle assessment at the design stage

Improvement of the environmental performance of processes and products is a common objective in industry, and has been receiving increased attention in recent years. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the potential environmental impact of two bedding products, a polyurethane foam mattress (PFM) and a pocket spring mattress (PSM). These two types are the most common mattresses used in Europe. A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) shows that the PFM has a higher environmental impact than the PSM. For both products the main cause of environmental impact is the manufacturing process, respectively the polyurethane foam block moulding process for the PFM, and the pocket spring nucleus process for the PSM. A scenario analysis shows the possibility of reducing the environmental impact of the products’ life cycle using an alternative End-of-Life scenario, resorting to incineration rather than landfill. Two strategies were also studied in order to reduce the environmental impact of the PFM: (1) reutilization of foam that was sent to the waste system management, and (2) a 20% weight reduction of the polyurethane foam. The second strategy has proven to be the most effective.

Natural Gas location design and operation

A major determinant of the level of effective natural gas supply is the ease to feed customers, minimizing system total costs. The aim of this work is the study of the right number of Gas Supply Units – GSUs - and their optimal location in a gas network. This paper suggests a GSU location heuristic, based on Lagrangean relaxation techniques. The heuristic is tested on the Iberian natural gas network, a system modelized with 65 demand nodes, linked by physical and virtual pipelines. Lagrangean heuristic results along with the allocation of loads to gas sources are presented, using a 2015 forecast gas demand scenario.

Design de cenários de aprendizagem

A cada instante surgem novas soluções de aprendizagem, resultado da evolução tecnológica constante com que nos deparamos. Estas inovações potenciam uma transmissão do conhecimento entre o educador e o educando cada vez mais simplificada, rápida e eficiente. Alguns destes avanços têm em vista a centralização no aluno, através da delegação de tarefas e da disponibilização de conteúdos, investindo na autonomia e na auto-aprendizagem, de modo a que cada aluno crie o seu próprio método de estudo, e evolua gradualmente, com o acompanhamento de um professor ou sistema autónomo de aprendizagem. Com esta investigação, é pretendido fazer um estudo dos métodos de aprendizagem ao longo do tempo até à actualidade, enumerando algumas das ferramentas utilizadas no processo de aprendizagem, indicando os vários benefícios, bem como contrapartidas do uso das mesmas. Será também analisado um caso de estudo baseado numa destas ferramentas, descrevendo o seu funcionamento e modo de interacção entre as várias entidades participantes, apresentando os resultados obtidos. O caso de estudo consistirá na criação de um cenário específico de aprendizagem, na área da saúde, analisando-o em diferentes contextos, e evidenciando as características e benefícios de cada ambiente analisado, no processo aprendizagem. Será então demonstrado como é possível optimizar os processos de aprendizagem, utilizando ferramentas de informatização e automatização desses mesmos processos, de forma tornar o processo de ensino mais célere e eficaz, num ambiente controlável, e com as funcionalidades que a tecnologia actual permite.

The operation of autonomous mobile robot assistants in the environment of care facilities adopting a user-centered development design

The participation of the Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation IPA (Stuttgart, Germany) and the companies User Interface Design GmbH (Ludwigsburg, Germany) plus MLR System GmbH (Ludwigsburg, Germany) enabled the research and findings presented in this paper; we would like to namely mention Birgit Graf and Theo Jacobs (Fraunhofer IPA) furthermore Peter Klein and Christiane Hartmann (User Interface Design GmbH).

ROAZ and ROAZ II Autonomous Surface Vehicle Design and Implementation

International Lifesaving Congress 2007, La Coruna, Spain, December, 2007

A New ROV Design: Issues on Low Drag and Mechanical Symmetry

This paper reports the design of a new remotely operated underwater vehicle (ROV), which has been developed at the Underwater Systems and Technology Laboratory (USTL) - University of Porto. This design is contextualized on the KOS project (Kits for underwater operations). The main issues addressed here concern directional drag minimization, symmetry, optimized thruster positioning, stability and layout of ROV components. This design is aimed at optimizing ROV performance for a set of different operational scenarios. This is achieved through modular configurations which are optimized for each different scenario.

A systematic methodology to analyse the performance and design configurations of business interoperability in cooperative industrial networks

This thesis proposes a methodology for modelling business interoperability in a context of cooperative industrial networks. The purpose is to develop a methodology that enables the design of cooperative industrial network platforms that are able to deliver business interoperability and the analysis of its impact on the performance of these platforms. To achieve the proposed objective, two modelling tools have been employed: the Axiomatic Design Theory for the design of interoperable platforms; and Agent-Based Simulation for the analysis of the impact of business interoperability. The sequence of the application of the two modelling tools depends on the scenario under analysis, i.e. whether the cooperative industrial network platform exists or not. If the cooperative industrial network platform does not exist, the methodology suggests first the application of the Axiomatic Design Theory to design different configurations of interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms, and then the use of Agent-Based Simulation to analyse or predict the business interoperability and operational performance of the designed configurations. Otherwise, one should start by analysing the performance of the existing platform and based on the achieved results, decide whether it is necessary to redesign it or not. If the redesign is needed, simulation is once again used to predict the performance of the redesigned platform. To explain how those two modelling tools can be applied in practice, a theoretical modelling framework, a theoretical Axiomatic Design model and a theoretical Agent-Based Simulation model are proposed. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology and/or to validate the proposed theoretical models, a case study regarding a Portuguese Reverse Logistics cooperative network (Valorpneu network) and a case study regarding a Portuguese construction project (Dam Baixo Sabor network) are presented. The findings of the application of the proposed methodology to these two case studies suggest that indeed the Axiomatic Design Theory can effectively contribute in the design of interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms and that Agent-Based Simulation provides an effective set of tools for analysing the impact of business interoperability on the performance of those platforms. However, these conclusions cannot be generalised as only two case studies have been carried out. In terms of relevance to theory, this is the first time that the network effect is addressed in the analysis of the impact of business interoperability on the performance of networked companies and also the first time that a holistic approach is proposed to design interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms. Regarding the practical implications, the proposed methodology is intended to provide industrial managers a management tool that can guide them easily, and in practical and systematic way, in the design of configurations of interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms and/or in the analysis of the impact of business interoperability on the performance of their companies and the networks where their companies operate.

Design of a case-based reasoner for information security in military organizations

Information security is concerned with the protection of information, which can be stored, processed or transmitted within critical information systems of the organizations, against loss of confidentiality, integrity or availability. Protection measures to prevent these problems result through the implementation of controls at several dimensions: technical, administrative or physical. A vital objective for military organizations is to ensure superiority in contexts of information warfare and competitive intelligence. Therefore, the problem of information security in military organizations has been a topic of intensive work at both national and transnational levels, and extensive conceptual and standardization work is being produced. A current effort is therefore to develop automated decision support systems to assist military decision makers, at different levels in the command chain, to provide suitable control measures that can effectively deal with potential attacks and, at the same time, prevent, detect and contain vulnerabilities targeted at their information systems. The concept and processes of the Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) methodology outstandingly resembles classical military processes and doctrine, in particular the analysis of “lessons learned” and definition of “modes of action”. Therefore, the present paper addresses the modeling and design of a CBR system with two key objectives: to support an effective response in context of information security for military organizations; to allow for scenario planning and analysis for training and auditing processes.