Plasma And Cold Sprayed Aluminum Carbon Nanotube Composites: Quantification Of Nanotube Distribution And Multi-Scale Mechanical Properties

Carbon nanotubes (CNT) could serve as potential reinforcement for metal matrix composites for improved mechanical properties. However dispersion of carbon nanotubes (CNT) in the matrix has been a longstanding problem, since they tend to form clusters to minimize their surface area. The aim of this study was to use plasma and cold spraying techniques to synthesize CNT reinforced aluminum composite with improved dispersion and to quantify the degree of CNT dispersion as it influences the mechanical properties. Novel method of spray drying was used to disperse CNTs in Al-12 wt.% Si pre-alloyed powder, which was used as feedstock for plasma and cold spraying. A new method for quantification of CNT distribution was developed. Two parameters for CNT dispersion quantification, namely Dispersion parameter (DP) and Clustering Parameter (CP) have been proposed based on the image analysis and distance between the centers of CNTs. Nanomechanical properties were correlated with the dispersion of CNTs in the microstructure. Coating microstructure evolution has been discussed in terms of splat formation, deformation and damage of CNTs and CNT/matrix interface. Effect of Si and CNT content on the reaction at CNT/matrix interface was thermodynamically and kinetically studied. A pseudo phase diagram was computed which predicts the interfacial carbide for reaction between CNT and Al-Si alloy at processing temperature. Kinetic aspects showed that Al4C3 forms with Al-12 wt.% Si alloy while SiC forms with Al-23wt.% Si alloy. Mechanical properties at nano, micro and macro-scale were evaluated using nanoindentation and nanoscratch, microindentation and bulk tensile testing respectively. Nano and micro-scale mechanical properties (elastic modulus, hardness and yield strength) displayed improvement whereas macro-scale mechanical properties were poor. The inversion of the mechanical properties at different scale length was attributed to the porosity, CNT clustering, CNT-splat adhesion and Al4C3 formation at the CNT/matrix interface. The Dispersion parameter (DP) was more sensitive than Clustering parameter (CP) in measuring degree of CNT distribution in the matrix.

The assessment of a global marine ecosystem model on the basis of emergent properties and ecosystem function: a case study with ERSEM

Ecosystem models are often assessed using quantitative metrics of absolute ecosystem state, but these model-data comparisons are disproportionately vulnerable to discrepancies in the location of important circulation features. An alternative method is to demonstrate the models capacity to represent ecosystem function; the emergence of a coherent natural relationship in a simulation indicates that the model may have an appropriate representation of the ecosystem functions that lead to the emergent relationship. Furthermore, as emergent properties are large-scale properties of the system, model validation with emergent properties is possible even when there is very little or no appropriate data for the region under study, or when the hydrodynamic component of the model differs significantly from that observed in nature at the same location and time. A selection of published meta-analyses are used to establish the validity of a complex marine ecosystem model and to demonstrate the power of validation with emergent properties. These relationships include the phytoplankton community structure, the ratio of carbon to chlorophyll in phytoplankton and particulate organic matter, the ratio of particulate organic carbon to particulate organic nitrogen and the stoichiometric balance of the ecosystem. These metrics can also inform aspects of the marine ecosystem model not available from traditional quantitative and qualitative methods. For instance, these emergent properties can be used to validate the design decisions of the model, such as the range of phytoplankton functional types and their behaviour, the stoichiometric flexibility with regards to each nutrient, and the choice of fixed or variable carbon to nitrogen ratios.

Abstract: Psychometric properties of two self-report clinical competence scales for nursing students.

Abstract: Psychometric properties of two self-report clinical competence scales for nursing students.
Background: It is important to assess the clinical competence of nursing students to gauge their professional development and educational needs. This can be measured by self-assessment tools. Anema and McCoy (2010) contended that the currently available measures need further psychometric testing.
Aim: To test the psychometric properties of Nursing Competencies Questionnaire (NCQ) and Self-Efficacy in Clinical Performance (SECP) clinical competence scales.

Method: A non-randomly selected sample of n=248 2nd year nursing students completed NCQ, SECP and demographic questionnaires (June and September 2013). Mokken Scaling Analysis (MSA) was used to test the structural validity and scale properties, convergent and discriminant validity and reliability were subsequently tested.

Results: The NCQ provided evidence of a unidimensional scale which had strong scale scalability coefficients Hs =0.581; but limited evidence of item rankability HT =0.367. MSA undertaken with the SECP scale identified two potential unidimensional scales the SECP28 and SECP7, each with adequate evidence of good/reasonable scalablity psychometric properties as a summed scale but no/very limited evidence of scale rankability (SECP28: Hs = 0.55, HT=0.211; SECP7: Hs = 0.61, HT=0.049). Analysis of between cohort differences and NCQ/ SECP scale scores produced evidence of convergent and discriminant validity and good internal reliability: NCQ α = 0.93, SECP28 α = 0.96, and SECP7 α=0.89.

Discussion: The NCQ was verified to have evidence of reliability and validity; however, as the SECP findings are new, and the sample small, with reference to Straat and colleagues (2014), the SECP results should be interpreted with caution and verified on a second sample.

Conclusions: Measurement of perceived self-competence could inform the development of nursing competence and could start early in a nursing programme. Further testing of the NCQ and SECP scales with larger samples and from different years is indicated.


References:
Anema, M., G and McCoy, JK. (2010) Competency-Based Nursing Education: Guide to Achieving Outstanding Learner Outcomes. New York: Springer.
Straat, JH., van der Ark, LA and Sijtsma, K. (2014) Minimum Sample Size Requirements for Mokken Scale Analysis Educational and Psychological Measurement 74 (5), 809-822.

Testing the psychometric properties of two self-report clinical competence scales for nursing students.

Background: It is important to assess the clinical competence of nursing students to gauge their educational needs. Competence can be measured by self-assessment tools; however, Anema and McCoy (2010) contend that currently available measures should be further psychometrically tested.
Aim: To test the psychometric properties of Nursing Competencies Questionnaire (NCQ) and Self-Efficacy in Clinical Performance (SECP) clinical competence scales.
Method: A non-randomly selected sample of n=248 2nd year nursing students completed NCQ, SECP and demographic questionnaires (June and September 2013). Mokken Scaling Analysis (MSA) was used to investigate structural validity and scale properties; convergent and discriminant validity and reliability were also tested for each scale.
Results: MSA analysis identified that the NCQ is a unidimensional scale with strong scale scalability coefficients Hs =0.581; but limited item rankability HT =0.367. The SECP scale MSA suggested that the scale could be potentially split into two unidimensional scales (SECP28 and SECP7), each with good/reasonable scalablity psychometric properties as summed scales but negligible/very limited scale rankability (SECP28: Hs = 0.55, HT=0.211; SECP7: Hs = 0.61, HT=0.049). Analysis of between cohort differences and NCQ/SECP scores produced evidence of discriminant and convergent validity; good internal reliability was also found: NCQ α = 0.93, SECP28 α = 0.96 and SECP7 α=0.89.

Discussion: In line with previous research further evidence of the NCQ’s reliability and validity was demonstrated. However, as the SECP findings are new and the sample small with reference to Straat and colleagues (2014), the SECP results should be interpreted with caution and verified on a second sample.
Conclusions: Measurement of perceived self-competence could start early in a nursing programme to support students’ development of clinical competence. Further testing of the SECP scale with larger nursing student samples from different programme years is indicated.

References:
Anema, M., G and McCoy, JK. (2010) Competency-Based Nursing Education: Guide to Achieving Outstanding Learner Outcomes. New York: Springer.
Straat, JH., van der Ark, LA and Sijtsma, K. (2014) Minimum Sample Size Requirements for Mokken Scale Analysis Educational and Psychological Measurement 74 (5), 809-822.

Measuring the quality of teaching in elementary school classrooms

This paper reviews the means by which teacher quality has been measured. It considers data sources such as students, peers, experts, and examines the psychometrics and scaleproperties of teacher quality assessment instruments with respect to reliability and validity. A list of items for possible inclusion in an elementary student focussed instrument is considered, together with the potential use of such an instrument in measuring teacher quality.

Nurse-administered procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory : a mixed methods study

The cardiac catheterisation laboratory (CCL) is a specialised medical radiology facility where both chronic-stable and life-threatening cardiovascular illness is evaluated and treated. Although there are many potential sources of discomfort and distress associated with procedures performed in the CCL, a general anaesthetic is not usually required. For this reason, an anaesthetist is not routinely assigned to the CCL. Instead, to manage pain, discomfort and anxiety during the procedure, nurses administer a combination of sedative and analgesic medications according to direction from the cardiologist performing the procedure. This practice is referred to as nurse-administered procedural sedation and analgesia (PSA). While anecdotal evidence suggested that nurse-administered PSA was commonly used in the CCL, it was clear from the limited information available that current nurse-led PSA administration and monitoring practices varied and that there was contention around some aspects of practice including the type of medications that were suitable to be used and the depth of sedation that could be safely induced without an anaesthetist present. The overall aim of the program of research presented in this thesis was to establish an evidence base for nurse-led sedation practices in the CCL context. A sequential mixed methods design was used over three phases. The objective of the first phase was to appraise the existing evidence for nurse-administered PSA in the CCL. Two studies were conducted. The first study was an integrative review of empirical research studies and clinical practice guidelines focused on nurse-administered PSA in the CCL as well as in other similar procedural settings. This was the first review to systematically appraise the available evidence supporting the use of nurse-administered PSA in the CCL. A major finding was that, overall, nurse-administered PSA in the CCL was generally deemed to be safe. However, it was concluded from the analysis of the studies and the guidelines that were included in the review, that the management of sedation in the CCL was impacted by a variety of contextual factors including local hospital policy, workforce constraints and cardiologists’ preferences for the type of sedation used. The second study in the first phase was conducted to identify a sedation scale that could be used to monitor level of sedation during nurse-administered PSA in the CCL. It involved a structured literature review and psychometric analysis of scale properties. However, only one scale was found that was developed specifically for the CCL, which had not undergone psychometric testing. Several weaknesses were identified in its item structure. Other sedation scales that were identified were developed for the ICU. Although these scales have demonstrated validity and reliability in the ICU, weaknesses in their item structure precluded their use in the CCL. As findings indicated that no existing sedation scale should be applied to practice in the CCL, recommendations for the development and psychometric testing of a new sedation scale were developed. The objective of the second phase of the program of research was to explore current practice. Three studies were conducted in this phase using both quantitative and qualitative research methods. The first was a qualitative explorative study of nurses’ perceptions of the issues and challenges associated with nurse-administered PSA in the CCL. Major themes emerged from analysis of the qualitative data regarding the lack of access to anaesthetists, the limitations of sedative medications, the barriers to effective patient monitoring and the impact that the increasing complexity of procedures has on patients' sedation requirements. The second study in Phase Two was a cross-sectional survey of nurse-administered PSA practice in Australian and New Zealand CCLs. This was the first study to quantify the frequency that nurse-administered PSA was used in the CCL setting and to characterise associated nursing practices. It was found that nearly all CCLs utilise nurse-administered PSA (94%). Of note, by characterising nurse-administered PSA in Australian and New Zealand CCLs, several strategies to improve practice, such as setting up protocols for patient monitoring and establishing comprehensive PSA education for CCL nurses, were identified. The third study in Phase Two was a matched case-control study of risk factors for impaired respiratory function during nurse-administered PSA in the CCL setting. Patients with acute illness were found to be nearly twice as likely to experience impaired respiratory function during nurse-administered PSA (OR=1.78; 95%CI=1.19-2.67; p=0.005). These significant findings can now be used to inform prospective studies investigating the effectiveness of interventions for impaired respiratory function during nurse-administered PSA in the CCL. The objective of the third and final phase of the program of research was to develop recommendations for practice. To achieve this objective, a synthesis of findings from the previous phases of the program of research informed a modified Delphi study, which was conducted to develop a set of clinical practice guidelines for nurse-administered PSA in the CCL. The clinical practice guidelines that were developed set current best practice standards for pre-procedural patient assessment and risk screening practices as well as the intra and post-procedural patient monitoring practices that nurses who administer PSA in the CCL should undertake in order to deliver safe, evidence-based and consistent care to the many patients who undergo procedures in this setting. In summary, the mixed methods approach that was used clearly enabled the research objectives to be comprehensively addressed in an informed sequential manner, and, as a consequence, this thesis has generated a substantial amount of new knowledge to inform and support nurse-led sedation practice in the CCL context. However, a limitation of the research to note is that the comprehensive appraisal of the evidence conducted, combined with the guideline development process, highlighted that there were numerous deficiencies in the evidence base. As such, rather than being based on high-level evidence, many of the recommendations for practice were produced by consensus. For this reason, further research is required in order to ascertain which specific practices result in the most optimal patient and health service outcomes. Therefore, along with necessary guideline implementation and evaluation projects, post-doctoral research is planned to follow up on the research gaps identified, which are planned to form part of a continuing program of research in this field.

Characterisation of cellulose- and lignin-based materials using x-ray scattering methods

Wood is an important material for the construction and pulping industries. Using x-ray diffraction the microfibril angle of Sitka spruce wood was studied in the first part of this thesis. Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis [Bong.] Carr.) is native to the west coast of North America, but due to its fast growth rate, it has also been imported to Europe. So far, its nanometre scale properties have not been systematically characterised. In this thesis the microfibril angle of Sitka spruce was shown to depend significantly on the origin of the tree in the first annual rings near the pith. Wood can be further processed to separate lignin from cellulose and hemicelluloses. Solid cellulose can act as a reducer for metal ions and it is also a porous support for nanoparticles. By chemically reducing nickel or copper in the solid cellulose support it is possible to get small nanoparticles on the surfaces of the cellulose fibres. Cellulose supported metal nanoparticles can potentially be used as environmentally friendly catalysts in organic chemistry reactions. In this thesis the size of the nickel and copper containing nanoparticles were studied using anomalous small-angle x-ray scattering and wide-angle x-ray scattering. The anomalous small-angle x-ray scattering experiments showed that the crystallite size of the copper oxide nanoparticles was the same as the size of the nanoparticles, so the nanoparticles were single crystals. The nickel containing nanoparticles were amorphous, but crystallised upon heating. The size of the nanoparticles was observed to be smaller when the reduction of nickel was done in aqueous ammonium hydrate medium compared to reduction made in aqueous solution. Lignin is typically seen as the side-product of wood industries. Lignin is the second most abundant natural polymer on Earth, and it possesses potential to be a useful material for many purposes in addition to being an energy source for the pulp mills. In this thesis, the morphology of several lignins, which were produced by different separation methods from wood, was studied using small-angle and ultra small-angle x-ray scattering. It was shown that the fractal model previously proposed for the lignin structure does not apply to most of the extracted lignin types. The only lignin to which the fractal model could be applied was kraft lignin. In aqueous solutions the average shape of the low molar mass kraft lignin particles was observed to be elongated and flat. The average shape does not necessarily correspond to the shape of the individual particles because of the polydispersity of the fraction and due to selfassociation of the particles. Lignins, and especially lignosulfonate, have many uses as dispersants, binders and emulsion stabilisers. In this thesis work the selfassociation of low molar mass lignosulfonate macromolecules was observed using small-angle x-ray scattering. By taking into account the polydispersity of the studied lignosulfonate fraction, the shape of the lignosulfonate particles was determined to be flat by fitting an oblate ellipsoidal model to the scattering intensity.

Deployment strategy for controlled morphologies in sessile, mixed colloidal droplets

Colloidal systems offer an effective medium to micro-engineer complex structures without involving sophisticated fabrication procedures. This article presents a deployment strategy of multiple droplets of different colloidal composition and utilizes the inherent capillary flow driven self assembly of nanoparticles to construct stacks of multiple materials on a given glass substrate. Here we used aqueous nano-crystalline titania and nano-amorphous silica solutions as the two materials. Initially, a pure nanotitania (nanosilica) droplet is deployed and allowed to dry partially. Subsequently, a second droplet of pure nanosilica (nanotitania) is deployed co-axially on the partially dried precipitate. The proposed deployment strategy allowed significant morphological differences when the deployment order of nanosilica and nanotitania were interchanged. Compositional analysis performed using EDX (Energy Dispersive X-ray spectroscopy) showed preferential deposition of nanosilica and nanotitania along the radial as well as the axial plane of the final deposit pattern. The underlying mechanism for such a phenomenon could be attributed to the contact line dynamics of a sessile double droplet. We also observe heteroaggregation of the nanosilica-nanotitania interaction along a narrow interface which resulted in nanotitania particles clustering into isolated islands embedded into a matrix of nanosilica particles. Overall, this work elucidates the evaporation driven dynamics of a mixed colloidal system which displays both macroscopic as well as microscopic phenomena. Such a system could be used to generate ordered arrays of functional materials with engineered micro to nano-scale properties.

Coherence and discontinuity in the scaling of species' distribution patterns

The spatial distribution of a species can be characterized at many different spatial scales, from fine-scale measures of local population density to coarse-scale geographical-range structure. Previous studies have shown a degree of correlation in species' distribution patterns across narrow ranges of scales, making it possible to predict fine-scale properties from coarser-scale distributions. To test the limits of such extrapolation, we have compiled distributional information on 16 species of British plants, at scales ranging across six orders of magnitude in linear resolution (1 in to 100 km). As expected, the correlation between patterns at different spatial scales tends to degrade as the scales become more widely separated. There is, however, an abrupt breakdown in cross-scale correlations across intermediate (ca. 0.5 km) scales, suggesting that local and regional patterns are influenced by essentially non-overlapping sets of processes. The scaling discontinuity may also reflect characteristic scales of human land use in Britain, suggesting a novel method for analysing the 'footprint' of humanity on a landscape.

Macroinvertebrate traits as biomonitoring tools in agricultural scenarios

Os ecossistemas de água doce – responsáveis por funções ambientais importantes e pelo fornecimento de bens e serviços insubstituíveis – têm vindo a ser severamente afectados por perturbações antropogénicas. A conversão de floresta em terreno agrícola afecta os sistemas aquáticos através de uma série de mecanismos: sedimentação; excesso de nutrientes; contaminação; alterações hidrológicas; e remoção de vegetação ripícola. As comunidades de macroinvertebrados de água doce – devido à sua diversidade, ubiquidade e sensibilidade às perturbações ambientais – revelam-se como particularmente adequadas para estudos de avaliação da integridade ecológica destes sistemas expostos simultaneamente a múltiplos factores de impacto. O uso sistemático de respostas biológicas para avaliação de mudanças ambientais – ou biomonitorização – pode ser levado a cabo através de diversas metodologias, que, de uma forma geral, não consideram aspectos funcionais das comunidades biológicas e têm aplicabilidade geograficamente restrita. A biomonitorização através de atributos biológicos (características que reflectem a adaptação das espécies ao seu meio ambiente) revela-se como uma ferramenta promissora na resolução dos problemas referidos, apresentando vantagens adicionais: relações causa-efeito directas; melhoria na diferenciação de impactos; e integração da variabilidade natural. O presente estudo apresenta uma revisão critica do estado-da-arte actual na área do uso de atributos biológicos em biomonitorização. Até à data de publicação, não estava disponível nenhum outro trabalho com a base conceptual do uso de atributos de macroinvertebrados enquanto descritores de comunidades e para efeitos de biomonitorização e gestão de sistemas de água doce. Descrevem-se as teorias ecológicas de suporte destas metodologias (conceitos de habitat-molde e de filtros paisagísticos) e os estudos que aplicaram estas teorias em cenários reais, tendo-se chamado a atenção para questões técnicas e possíveis soluções. As necessidades futuras nesta área englobam: o desenvolvimento de uma só ferramenta de biomonitorização de aplicação alargada; uma maior compreensão da variabilidade natural nas comunidades biológicas; diminuição dos efeitos de soluções de compromisso biológico e sindromas; realização de estudos autoecológicos adicionais; e detecção de impactos específicos em cenários de impacto complexos. Um dos objectivos deste estudo foi contribuir para a melhoria das técnicas de biomonitorização através de atributos, focalizando em comunidades de macroinvertebrados ribeirinhas em diferentes regiões biogeográficas (as bacias hidrográficas dos rios: Little e Salmon em New Brunswick, Canadá; Anllóns na Galiza, Espanha; Reventazón em Cartago, Costa Rica). Em cada região, foram estudados gradientes de uso agrícola de solo, incluindo desde bacias hidrográficas quase exclusivamente cobertas por floresta até bacias sob a influência maioritária de actividades agrícolas intensivas. Em cada gradiente de uso de solo, a caracterização da comunidade biológica (por amostragem de macroinvertebrados em troços de rápidos) foi acompanhada pela caracterização do habitat circundante (incluindo propriedades da bacia hidrográfica, análise química das águas e outras propriedades à escala local). A comunidade de macroinvertebrados foi caracterizada através de informação taxonómica, métricas estruturais, índices de diversidade, métricas de tolerância, índices bióticos e através da compilação de atributos biológicos e fisiológicos gerais, de história de vida e de resistência a perturbações. Análises estatísticas univariadas e multivariadas foram usadas para evidenciar os gradientes biológicos e físico-químicos, confirmar a sua co-variação, testar a significância da discriminação de níveis de impacto e estabelecer comparações inter-regionais. A estrutura de comunidades revelou os complexos gradientes de impacto, que por sua vez co-variaram significativamente com os gradientes de uso de solo. Os gradientes de impacto relacionaram-se sobretudo com entrada de nutrientes e sedimentação. Os gradientes biológicos definidos pelas medidas estruturais seleccionadas co-variaram com os gradientes de impacto estudados, muito embora apenas algumas variáveis estruturais tenham individualmente discriminado as categorias de uso de solo definidas a priori. Não foi detectada consistência nas respostas das medidas estruturais entre regiões biogeográficas, tendo-se confirmadado que as interpretações puramente taxonómicas de impactos são difíceis de extrapolar entre regiões. Os gradientes biológicos definidos através dos atributos seleccionados também co-variaram com os gradientes de perturbação, tendo sido possível obter uma melhor discriminação de categorias de uso de solo. Nas diferentes regiões, a discriminação de locais mais impactados foi feita com base num conjunto similar de atributos, que inclui tamanho, voltinismo, técnicas reproductivas, microhabitat, preferências de corrente e substrato, hábitos alimentares e formas de resistência. Este conjunto poderá vir a ser usado para avaliar de forma predictiva os efeitos das modificações severas de uso de solo impostas pela actividade agrícola. Quando analisadas simultaneamente através dos atributos, as comunidades das três regiões permitiram uma moderada mas significativa discriminação de níveis de impacto. Estas análises corroboram as evidências de que as mudanças nas comunidades de macroinvertebrados aquáticos em locais sob a influência de agricultura intensiva podem seguir uma trajectória convergente no espaço multidimensional, independentemente de factores geográficos. Foram fornecidas pistas para a identificação de parâmetros específicos que deverão ser tidos em conta no planeamento de novos programas de biomonitorização com comunidades de macroinvertebrados bentónicos, para aplicação numa gestão fluvial verdadeiramente ecológica, nestas e noutras regiões. Foram ainda sugeridas possíveis linhas futuras de investigação.

Photometric and fundamental plane studies of galaxies

Determining the morphological parameters that describe galaxies has always been a challenging task. The studies on the correlations between different photometric as well as spectroscopic parameters of the galaxies help in understanding their structure, properties of the stars and gas which constitute the galaxy, the various physical and chemical processes which determine the properties, and galaxy formation and evolution. In the last few decades, the advent of Charge Coupled Devices (CCDs) and near infrared arrays ha\·e provided quick and reliable digitized data acquisition, in the optical and near infrared bands. This has provided an avalanche of data, which can be processed using sophisticated image analysis techniques to obtain information about the morphology of galaxies. The photometric analysis performed in this thesis involve the extraction of structural parameters of early type gala.xies imaged in the near infrared K (2.2ttm) band, obtaining correlations between these, parameters and using them to constrain the large scale properties of galaxi,~s.

Suprathermal electron evolution in a Parker spiral magnetic field

Suprathermal electrons (>70 eV) form a small fraction of the total solar wind electron density but serve as valuable tracers of heliospheric magnetic field topology. Their usefulness as tracers of magnetic loops with both feet rooted on the Sun, however, most likely fades as the loops expand beyond some distance owing to scattering. As a first step toward quantifying that distance, we construct an observationally constrained model for the evolution of the suprathermal electron pitch-angle distributions on open field lines. We begin with a near-Sun isotropic distribution moving antisunward along a Parker spiral magnetic field while conserving magnetic moment, resulting in a field-aligned strahl within a few solar radii. Past this point, the distribution undergoes little evolution with heliocentric distance. We then add constant (with heliocentric distance, energy, and pitch angle) ad-hoc pitch-angle scattering. Close to the Sun, pitch-angle focusing still dominates, again resulting in a narrow strahl. Farther from the Sun, however, pitch-angle scattering dominates because focusing is effectively weakened by the increasing angle between the magnetic field direction and intensity gradient, a result of the spiral field. We determine the amount of scattering required to match Ulysses observations of strahl width in the fast solar wind, providing an important tool for inferring the large-scale properties and topologies of field lines in the interplanetary medium. Although the pitch-angle scattering term is independent of energy, time-of-flight effects in the spiral geometry result in an energy dependence of the strahl width that is in the observed sense although weaker in magnitude.

Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present-day and XXII century simulations by IPCCAR4 global climate models

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of 20 GCMs (Global Circulation Models) included in the 4th IPCC assessment report regarding their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for 1961–2000 and for the 2161–2200 SRESA1B scenario runs. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. The span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are comparable to those of the RCMs (Regional Climate Models) analyzed in a previous work, in spite of the much higher resolution and common nesting of the RCMs. The reanalyses are shown to feature several inconsistencies and cannot be used as a verification benchmark for the hydrological cycle in the Danubian region. In the scenario runs, for basically all models the water balance decreases, whereas its interannual variability increases. Changes in the strength of the hydrological cycle are not consistent among models: it is confirmed that capturing the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle is not an easy task over land areas. Moreover, in several cases we find that qualitatively different behaviors emerge among the models: the ensemble mean does not represent any sort of average model, and often it falls between the models’ clusters.