Modelling Spikes in Electricity Prices

uring periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes therefore is important for risk management. This paper builds a time-varying-probability Markov-switching model of Queensland electricity prices, aimed particularly at forecasting price spikes. Variables capturing demand and weather patterns are used to drive the transition probabilities. Unlike traditional Markov-switching models that assume normality of the prices in each state, the model presented here uses a generalised beta distribution to allow for the skewness in the distribution of electricity prices during high-price episodes.

Benign Epilepsy with Centro-temporal Spikes: Spike Triggered fMRI Shows Somato-sensory Cortex Activity

Summary:  Objective: We performed spike triggered functional MRI (fMRI) in a 12 year old girl with Benign Epilepsy with Centro-temporal Spikes (BECTS) and left-sided spikes. Our aim was to demonstrate the cerebral origin of her interictal spikes. Methods: EEG was recorded within the 3 Tesla MRI. Whole brain fMRI images were acquired, beginning 2–3 seconds after spikes. Baseline fMRI images were acquired when there were no spikes for 20 seconds. Image sets were compared with the Student's t-test. Results: Ten spike and 20 baseline brain volumes were analysed. Focal activiation was seen in the inferior left sensorimotor cortex near the face area. The anterior cingulate was more active during baseline than spikes. Conclusions: Left sided epileptiform activity in this patient with BECTS is associated with fMRI activation in the left face region of the somatosensory cortex, which would be consistent with the facial sensorimotor involvement in BECT seizures. The presence of BOLD signal change in other regions raises the possibility that the scalp recorded field of this patient with BECTs may reflect electrical change in more than one brain region.

Semi-parametric forecasting of spikes in electricity prices

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes

Abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market participants. As such, a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability of such spike events, moving beyond simply forecasting the level of price. Many univariate time series models have been proposed to dealwith spikes within an individual market region. This paper is the first to develop a multivariate self-exciting point process model for dealing with price spikes across connected regions in the Australian National Electricity Market. The importance of the physical infrastructure connecting the regions on the transmission of spikes is examined. It is found that spikes are transmitted between the regions, and the size of spikes is influenced by the available transmission capacity. It is also found that improved risk estimates are obtained when inter-regional linkages are taken into account.

Predicting the Timing of Spikes Evoked by Tactile Stimulation of the Hand

Kim SS, Sripati AP, Bensmaia SJ. Predicting the timing of spikes evoked by tactile stimulation of the hand. J Neurophysiol 104: 1484-1496, 2010. First published July 7, 2010; doi: 10.1152/jn.00187.2010. What does the hand tell the brain? Tactile stimulation of the hand evokes remarkably precise patterns of neural activity, suggesting that the timing of individual spikes may convey information. However, many aspects of the transformation of mechanical deformations of the skin into spike trains remain unknown. Here we describe an integrate-and-fire model that accurately predicts the timing of individual spikes evoked by arbitrary mechanical vibrations in three types of mechanoreceptive afferent fibers that innervate the hand. The model accounts for most known properties of the three fiber types, including rectification, frequency-sensitivity, and patterns of spike entrainment as a function of stimulus frequency. These results not only shed light on the mechanisms of mechanotransduction but can be used to provide realistic tactile feedback in upper-limb neuroprostheses.

Some new results regarding spikes and a heuristic for spike construction

his paper addresses the problem of minimizing the number of columns with superdiagonal nonzeroes (viz., spiked columns) in a square, nonsingular linear system of equations which is to be solved by Gaussian elimination. The exact focus is on a class of min-spike heuristics in which the rows and columns of the coefficient matrix are first permuted to block lower-triangular form. Subsequently, the number of spiked columns in each irreducible block and their heights above the diagonal are minimized heuristically. We show that ifevery column in an irreducible block has exactly two nonzeroes, i.e., is a doubleton, then there is exactly one spiked column. Further, if there is at least one non-doubleton column, there isalways an optimal permutation of rows and columns under whichnone of the doubleton columns are spiked. An analysis of a few benchmark linear programs suggests that singleton and doubleton columns can abound in practice. Hence, it appears that the results of this paper can be practically useful. In the rest of the paper, we develop a polynomial-time min-spike heuristic based on the above results and on a graph-theoretic interpretation of doubleton columns.

HCN channels enhance spike phase coherence and regulate the phase of spikes and LFPs in the theta-frequency range

What are the implications for the existence of subthreshold ion channels, their localization profiles, and plasticity on local field potentials (LFPs)? Here, we assessed the role of hyperpolarization-activated cyclic-nucleotide-gated (HCN) channels in altering hippocampal theta-frequency LFPs and the associated spike phase. We presented spatiotemporally randomized, balanced theta-modulated excitatory and inhibitory inputs to somatically aligned, morphologically realistic pyramidal neuron models spread across a cylindrical neuropil. We computed LFPs from seven electrode sites and found that the insertion of an experimentally constrained HCN-conductance gradient into these neurons introduced a location- dependent lead in the LFP phase without significantly altering its amplitude. Further, neurons fired action potentials at a specific theta phase of the LFP, and the insertion of HCN channels introduced large lags in this spike phase and a striking enhancement in neuronal spike-phase coherence. Importantly, graded changes in either HCN conductance or its half-maximal activation voltage resulted in graded changes in LFP and spike phases. Our conclusions on the impact of HCN channels on LFPs and spike phase were invariant to changes in neuropil size, to morphological heterogeneity, to excitatory or inhibitory synaptic scaling, and to shifts in the onset phase of inhibitory inputs. Finally, we selectively abolished the inductive lead in the impedance phase introduced by HCN channels without altering neuronal excitability and found that this inductive phase lead contributed significantly to changes in LFP and spike phase. Our results uncover specific roles for HCN channels and their plasticity in phase-coding schemas and in the formation and dynamic reconfiguration of neuronal cell assemblies.