A contribution to the taxonomy of aquatic and humicolous beetles of the family Hydraenidae in southern Africa / Philip D. Perkins, J. Balfour-Browne.

n.s. no.77(1994)

Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa

Much attention has been paid to the effects of climate change on species' range reductions and extinctions. There is however surprisingly little information on how climate change driven threat may impact the tree of life and result in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Some plant families and mammalian orders reveal nonrandom extinction patterns, but many other plant families do not. Do these discrepancies reflect different speciation histories and does climate induced extinction result in the same discrepancies among different groups? Answers to these questions require representative taxon sampling. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses, species distribution modeling, and climate change projections on two of the largest plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (Proteaceae and Restionaceae), as well as the second most diverse mammalian order in Southern Africa (Chiroptera), and an herbivorous insect genus (Platypleura) in the family Cicadidae to answer this question. We model current and future species distributions to assess species threat levels over the next 70years, and then compare projected with random PD survival. Results for these animal and plant clades reveal congruence. PD losses are not significantly higher under predicted extinction than under random extinction simulations. So far the evidence suggests that focusing resources on climate threatened species alone may not result in disproportionate benefits for the preservation of evolutionary history.

A Reply to comments by D. Bar-Yosef M. Stiner on "Prehistoric exploitation of marine resources in Southern Africa with particular reference to shellfish gathering: opportunities and continuities"

I am very grateful to Daniella E. Bar-Yosef Mayer and Mary Stiner for their comments on an article I published in the previous issue of Pyrenae. Having spent many years working with coastal sites in South Africa and now settling in the Mediterranean academic landscape, I value the feedback from these two well-known archaeologists who have dedicated years of hard work in this later part of the world. Their opinions are very much appreciated for they allow me to bring new contexts to some of the (old) questions I have pursued in South Africa, an exercise that would help me with the process of broadening my research interests to the Mediterranean region.

Cultural Diffusion Was the Main Driving Mechanism of the Neolithic Transition in Southern Africa

It is well known that the Neolithic transition spread across Europe at a speed of about 1 km/yr. This result has been previously interpreted as a range expansion of the Neolithic driven mainly by demic diffusion (whereas cultural diffusion played a secondary role). However, a long-standing problem is whether this value (1 km/yr) and its interpretation (mainly demic diffusion) are characteristic only of Europe or universal (i.e. intrinsic features of Neolithic transitions all over the world). So far Neolithic spread rates outside Europe have been barely measured, and Neolithic spread rates substantially faster than 1 km/yr have not been previously reported. Here we show that the transition from hunting and gathering into herding in southern Africa spread at a rate of about 2.4 km/yr, i.e. about twice faster than the European Neolithic transition. Thus the value 1 km/yr is not a universal feature of Neolithic transitions in the world. Resorting to a recent demic-cultural wave-of-advance model, we also find that the main mechanism at work in the southern African Neolithic spread was cultural diffusion (whereas demic diffusion played a secondary role). This is in sharp contrast to the European Neolithic. Our results further suggest that Neolithic spread rates could be mainly driven by cultural diffusion in cases where the final state of this transition is herding/pastoralism (such as in southern Africa) rather than farming and stockbreeding (as in Europe)

Interdependence in Southern Africa: an examination of the relations between Zimbabwe and South Africa

Most research on southern Africa focuses on the total dependency of the region's states--Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, zambia and Zimbabwe--upon the dominant power, South Africa. This thesis examines the relationship between South Africa and Zimbabwe and argues that these two states are more interdependent than dependency scholars would acknowledge. Although a study of the historical period reveals that dependency theory, as defined by Raul Prebisch, Andre Gunder Frank and A. Valenzuela, is helpful for understanding the development of relations between the two states, it is unable to account for many of the characteristics of the relationship which are found in the contemporary context, especially since 1980. An examination of various economic areas of interaction, including investment, trade and transportation, as well as the political realm, indicates that each state exhibits a degree of dependence upon the other. Thus, it is possible to characterize the relationship as one of "mutual dependence," or interdependence as defined by Robert Keohane and Joseph S. Nye. Interdependence is further examined through the concepts of sensitivity and vulnerability. Sensitivity signifies the ability of a state to respond effectively to policy changes made by another state wi thin a given area of interaction without incurring large costs, while vulnerability denotes that an actor is unable to respond, or only at great cost. By applying these concepts to the relationship between Zimbabwe and South Africa, it is determined that although South Africa tends to be sensitive while Zimbabwe is generally vulnerable, the degrees to which these two states are sensi ti ve and vulnerable varies over time and issue area. As the changes wi thin South Africa start to affect relations wi th the rest of southern Africa, it wi 11 be necessary to understand the interaction between the states from an interdependency perspective if cooperation within the region wi 11 be successful. By appl ying an interdependence framework, this study aims at contributing to the understanding of relations among the countries of southern Africa in general, and between South Africa and Zimbabwe in particular.

Influence of south Atlantic sea surface temperatures on rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa

It is generally agreed that changing climate variability, and the associated change in climate extremes, may have a greater impact on environmentally vulnerable regions than a changing mean. This research investigates rainfall variability, rainfall extremes, and their associations with atmospheric and oceanic circulations over southern Africa, a region that is considered particularly vulnerable to extreme events because of numerous environmental, social, and economic pressures. Because rainfall variability is a function of scale, high-resolution data are needed to identify extreme events. Thus, this research uses remotely sensed rainfall data and climate model experiments at high spatial and temporal resolution, with the overall aim being to investigate the ways in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. Extreme rainfall identification is achieved by the high-resolution microwave/infrared rainfall algorithm dataset. This comprises satellite-derived daily rainfall from 1993 to 2002 and covers southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° latitude–longitude. Extremes are extracted and used with reanalysis data to study possible circulation anomalies associated with extreme rainfall. Anomalously cold SSTs in the central South Atlantic and warm SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa seem to be statistically related to rainfall extremes. Further, through a number of idealized climate model experiments, it would appear that both decreasing SSTs in the central South Atlantic and increasing SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa lead to a demonstrable increase in daily rainfall and rainfall extremes over southern Africa, via local effects such as increased convection and remote effects such as an adjustment of the Walker-type circulation.