A System Dynamics-Based Simulation Experiment for Testing Mental Model and Performance Effects of Using the Balanced Scorecard

This study develops a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the balanced scorecard approach by means of a system dynamics and feedback learning perspective. Presumably, the balanced scorecard leads to a better understanding of context, allowing managers to externalize and improve their mental models. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of the balanced scorecard approach on mental models and performance. A test based on a simulation experiment that uses a system dynamics model is performed. The experiment included three types of parameters: financial indicators; balanced scorecard indicators; and balanced scorecard indicators with the aid of a strategy map review. Two out of the three hypotheses were confirmed. It was concluded that a strategy map review positively influences mental model similarity, and mental model similarity positively influences performance.

An observing system simulation experiment for climate monitoring with GNSS radio occulation data: setup and testbed study

The long-term stability, high accuracy, all-weather capability, high vertical resolution, and global coverage of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) suggests it as a promising tool for global monitoring of atmospheric temperature change. With the aim to investigate and quantify how well a GNSS RO observing system is able to detect climate trends, we are currently performing an (climate) observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025, which involves quasi-realistic modeling of the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. We carried out two climate simulations with the general circulation model MAECHAM5 (Middle Atmosphere European Centre/Hamburg Model Version 5) of the MPI-M Hamburg, covering the period 2001–2025: One control run with natural variability only and one run also including anthropogenic forcings due to greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric ozone. On the basis of this, we perform quasi-realistic simulations of RO observables for a small GNSS receiver constellation (six satellites), state-of-the-art data processing for atmospheric profiles retrieval, and a statistical analysis of temperature trends in both the “observed” climatology and the “true” climatology. Here we describe the setup of the experiment and results from a test bed study conducted to obtain a basic set of realistic estimates of observational errors (instrument- and retrieval processing-related errors) and sampling errors (due to spatial-temporal undersampling). The test bed results, obtained for a typical summer season and compared to the climatic 2001–2025 trends from the MAECHAM5 simulation including anthropogenic forcing, were found encouraging for performing the full 25-year experiment. They indicated that observational and sampling errors (both contributing about 0.2 K) are consistent with recent estimates of these errors from real RO data and that they should be sufficiently small for monitoring expected temperature trends in the global atmosphere over the next 10 to 20 years in most regions of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Inspection of the MAECHAM5 trends in different RO-accessible atmospheric parameters (microwave refractivity and pressure/geopotential height in addition to temperature) indicates complementary climate change sensitivity in different regions of the UTLS so that optimized climate monitoring shall combine information from all climatic key variables retrievable from GNSS RO data.

An observing system simulation experiment to evaluate the scientific merit of wind and ozone measurements from the future SWIFT instrument

(from author) One of the first papers in the peer-review literature to discuss an OSSE to evaluate future wind observations in the stratosphere. Provides key evidence to justify the construction of the SWIFT instrument (currently planned to be built by the Canadian Space Agency for launch on ~ 2010).

A system dynamics-based simulation

This study develops a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the balanced scorecard approach by means of a system dynamics and feedback learning perspective. Presumably, the balanced scorecard leads to a better understanding of context, allowing managers to externalize and improve their mental models. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of the balanced scorecard approach on mental models and performance. A test based on a simulation experiment that uses a system dynamics model is performed. The experiment included three types of parameters: financial indicators; balanced scorecard indicators; and balanced scorecard indicators with the aid of a strategy map review. Two out of the three hypotheses were confirmed. It was concluded that a strategy map review positively influences mental model similarity, and mental model similarity positively influences performance.

A Framework for the Automation of Discrete-Event Simulation Experiments

Simulation is an important resource for researchers in diverse fields. However, many researchers have found flaws in the methodology of published simulation studies and have described the state of the simulation community as being in a crisis of credibility. This work describes the project of the Simulation Automation Framework for Experiments (SAFE), which addresses the issues that undermine credibility by automating the workflow in the execution of simulation studies. Automation reduces the number of opportunities for users to introduce error in the scientific process thereby improvingthe credibility of the final results. Automation also eases the job of simulation users and allows them to focus on the design of models and the analysis of results rather than on the complexities of the workflow.

Experimental investigation and CFD simulation of insulation debris transport phenomena in water flow

The investigation of insulation debris generation, transport and sedimentation becomes important with regard to reactor safety research for PWR and BWR, when considering the long-term behavior of emergency core cooling systems during all types of loss of coolant accidents (LOCA). The insulation debris released near the break during a LOCA incident consists of a mixture of disparate particle population that varies with size, shape, consistency and other properties. Some fractions of the released insulation debris can be transported into the reactor sump, where it may perturb/impinge on the emergency core cooling systems. Open questions of generic interest are the sedimentation of the insulation debris in a water pool, its possible re-suspension and transport in the sump water flow and the particle load on strainers and corresponding pressure drop. A joint research project on such questions is being performed in cooperation between the University of Applied Sciences Zittau/Görlitz and the Forschungszentrum Dresden-Rossendorf. The project deals with the experimental investigation of particle transport phenomena in coolant flow and the development of CFD models for its description. While the experiments are performed at the University at Zittau/Görlitz, the theoretical modeling efforts are concentrated at Forschungszentrum Dresden-Rossendorf. In the presentation the basic concepts for CFD modeling are described and feasibility studies including the conceptual design of the experiments are presented.

Introduction to Multi-Agent Simulation

When designing systems that are complex, dynamic and stochastic in nature, simulation is generally recognised as one of the best design support technologies, and a valuable aid in the strategic and tactical decision making process. A simulation model consists of a set of rules that define how a system changes over time, given its current state. Unlike analytical models, a simulation model is not solved but is run and the changes of system states can be observed at any point in time. This provides an insight into system dynamics rather than just predicting the output of a system based on specific inputs. Simulation is not a decision making tool but a decision support tool, allowing better informed decisions to be made. Due to the complexity of the real world, a simulation model can only be an approximation of the target system. The essence of the art of simulation modelling is abstraction and simplification. Only those characteristics that are important for the study and analysis of the target system should be included in the simulation model. The purpose of simulation is either to better understand the operation of a target system, or to make predictions about a target system’s performance. It can be viewed as an artificial white-room which allows one to gain insight but also to test new theories and practices without disrupting the daily routine of the focal organisation. What you can expect to gain from a simulation study is very well summarised by FIRMA (2000). His idea is that if the theory that has been framed about the target system holds, and if this theory has been adequately translated into a computer model this would allow you to answer some of the following questions: · Which kind of behaviour can be expected under arbitrarily given parameter combinations and initial conditions? · Which kind of behaviour will a given target system display in the future? · Which state will the target system reach in the future? The required accuracy of the simulation model very much depends on the type of question one is trying to answer. In order to be able to respond to the first question the simulation model needs to be an explanatory model. This requires less data accuracy. In comparison, the simulation model required to answer the latter two questions has to be predictive in nature and therefore needs highly accurate input data to achieve credible outputs. These predictions involve showing trends, rather than giving precise and absolute predictions of the target system performance. The numerical results of a simulation experiment on their own are most often not very useful and need to be rigorously analysed with statistical methods. These results then need to be considered in the context of the real system and interpreted in a qualitative way to make meaningful recommendations or compile best practice guidelines. One needs a good working knowledge about the behaviour of the real system to be able to fully exploit the understanding gained from simulation experiments. The goal of this chapter is to brace the newcomer to the topic of what we think is a valuable asset to the toolset of analysts and decision makers. We will give you a summary of information we have gathered from the literature and of the experiences that we have made first hand during the last five years, whilst obtaining a better understanding of this exciting technology. We hope that this will help you to avoid some pitfalls that we have unwittingly encountered. Section 2 is an introduction to the different types of simulation used in Operational Research and Management Science with a clear focus on agent-based simulation. In Section 3 we outline the theoretical background of multi-agent systems and their elements to prepare you for Section 4 where we discuss how to develop a multi-agent simulation model. Section 5 outlines a simple example of a multi-agent system. Section 6 provides a collection of resources for further studies and finally in Section 7 we will conclude the chapter with a short summary.

Speech recognition in noise for cochlear implant listeners: Benefits of residual hearing

The purpose of this study was to explore the potential advantages, both theoretical and applied, of preserving low-frequency acoustic hearing in cochlear implant patients. Several hypotheses are presented that predict that residual low-frequency acoustic hearing along with electric stimulation for high frequencies will provide an advantage over traditional long-electrode cochlear implants for the recognition of speech in competing backgrounds. A simulation experiment in normal-hearing subjects demonstrated a clear advantage for preserving low-frequency residual acoustic hearing for speech recognition in a background of other talkers, but not in steady noise. Three subjects with an implanted "short-electrode" cochlear implant and preserved low-frequency acoustic hearing were also tested on speech recognition in the same competing backgrounds and compared to a larger group of traditional cochlear implant users. Each of the three short-electrode subjects performed better than any of the traditional long-electrode implant subjects for speech recognition in a background of other talkers, but not in steady noise, in general agreement with the simulation studies. When compared to a subgroup of traditional implant users matched according to speech recognition ability in quiet, the short-electrode patients showed a 9-dB advantage in the multitalker background. These experiments provide strong preliminary support for retaining residual low-frequency acoustic hearing in cochlear implant patients. The results are consistent with the idea that better perception of voice pitch, which can aid in separating voices in a background of other talkers, was responsible for this advantage.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision

Utilização de modelos de simulação para a melhoria de um sistema de restauração: estudo de caso de uma cantina universitária

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Numerical analysis of the impact of charcoal production on soil hydrological behavior, runoff response and erosion susceptibility

The impact of charcoal production on soil hydraulic properties, runoff response and erosion susceptibility were studied in both field and simulation experiments. Core and composite samples, from 12 randomly selected sites within the catchment of Kotokosu were taken from the 0-10 cm layer of a charcoal site soil (CSS) and adjacent field soils (AFS). These samples were used to determine saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat), bulk density, total porosity, soil texture and color. Infiltration, surface albedo and soil surface temperature were also measured in both CSS and AFS. Measured properties were used as entries in a rainfall runoff simulation experiment on a smooth (5 % slope) plot of 25 x 25 m grids with 10 cm resolutions. Typical rainfall intensities of the study watershed (high, moderate and low) were applied to five different combinations of Ks distributions that could be expected in this landscape. The results showed significantly (p < 0.01) higher flow characteristics of the soil under charcoal kilns (increase of 88 %). Infiltration was enhanced and runoff volume reduced significantly. The results showed runoff reduction of about 37 and 18 %, and runoff coefficient ranging from 0.47-0.75 and 0.04-0.39 or simulation based on high (200 mm h-1) and moderate (100 mm h-1) rainfall events over the CSS and AFS areas, respectively. Other potential impacts of charcoal production on watershed hydrology were described. The results presented, together with watershed measurements, when available, are expected to enhance understanding of the hydrological responses of ecosystems to indiscriminate charcoal production and related activities in this region.

Using niche-based models to improve the sampling of rare species

Because data on rare species usually are sparse, it is important to have efficient ways to sample additional data. Traditional sampling approaches are of limited value for rare species because a very large proportion of randomly chosen sampling sites are unlikely to shelter the species. For these species, spatial predictions from niche-based distribution models can be used to stratify the sampling and increase sampling efficiency. New data sampled are then used to improve the initial model. Applying this approach repeatedly is an adaptive process that may allow increasing the number of new occurrences found. We illustrate the approach with a case study of a rare and endangered plant species in Switzerland and a simulation experiment. Our field survey confirmed that the method helps in the discovery of new populations of the target species in remote areas where the predicted habitat suitability is high. In our simulations the model-based approach provided a significant improvement (by a factor of 1.8 to 4 times, depending on the measure) over simple random sampling. In terms of cost this approach may save up to 70% of the time spent in the field.

Redox dysregulation in schizophrenia : effect on myelination of cortical structures and connectivity

Cette thèse traite du rôle qu'un facteur de risque génétique développé chez les patients souffrant de schizophrénie, à savoir un déficit de la synthèse du glutathion, peut jouer dans les anomalies de la connectivité cérébrale trouvées chez ces patients. L'essentiel du travail a été consacré à évaluer la structure de la substance blanche dans l'ensemble du cerveau chez un modèle animal par une méthode similaire à celle utilisée en recherche clinique avec l'imagerie par résonance magnétique (IRM). Cette approche de translation inverse chez la souris knock-out de glutamate-cystéine ligase modulateur sous-unité (Gclm KO), avait l'objectif d'étudier l'effet des défenses redox déficientes sur le développement des connexions cérébrales, tout en excluant celui des facteurs non liés au génotype. Après avoir établi le protocole de recherche, l'influence d'une manipulation environnementale a également été étudiée. Pour effectuer une analyse statistique fiable des données d'IRM obtenues, nous .avons d'abord créé un atlas du cerveau de la souris afin de l'utiliser comme modèle pour une segmentation précise des différentes régions du cerveau sur les images IRM obtenues in vivo. Les données provenant de chaque région d'intérêt ont ensuite été étudiées séparément. La qualité de cette méthode a été évaluée dans une expérience de simulation pour déduire la puissance statistique réalisable dans chaque région en fonction du nombre d'animaux utilisés. Ces outils d'analyse nous ont permis d'évaluer l'intégrité de la substance blanche dans le cerveau des souris durant le développement grâce à une expérience longitudinale, en utilisant l'imagerie du tenseur de diffusion (DTI). Nous avons ainsi observé des anomalies dans les paramètres dérivés du tenseur (diffusivité et anisotropie) dans la Commissure Antérieure et le Fimbria/Fornix des souris Gclm KO, par rapport aux animaux contrôles. Ces résultats suggèrent une substance blanche endommagée dans ces régions. Dans une expérience électrophysiologique, Pascal Steullet a montré que ces anomalies ont des conséquences fonctionnelles caractérisées par une réduction de la vitesse de conduction dans les fibres nerveuses. Ces données renforcent les conclusions des analyses d'imagerie. Le mécanisme par lequel une dérégulation redox affecte la structure de la substance blanche reste encore à définir, car une analyse immunohistochimique des protéines constituantes de la couche de myéline des fibres concernées n'a pas donné de résultats concluants. Nous avons également constaté un élargissement des ventricules dans les jeunes souris Gclm KO, mais pas chez les adultes et des anomalies neurochimiques déjà connues chez ces animaux (Duarte et al. 2011), à savoir une réduction du Glutathion et une augmentation de l'acide N-acétylaspartique, de l'Alanine et du ratio Glutamine/Glutamate. Nous avons ensuite testé l'effet d'un stress environnemental supplémentaire, l'élevage en isolement social, sur le phénotype. Ce stress n'a eu aucun effet sur la structure de la substance blanche évaluée par DTI, mais a réduit la concentration de myo-Inositol et augmenté le ratio de Glutamine/Glutamate dans le cortex frontal. Nous avons aussi reproduit dans ce groupe indépendant d'animaux les effets du génotype sur le profil neurochimique, sur la taille des ventricules et aussi sur les paramètres dérivés du tenseur de diffusion dans le Fimbria/Fornix, mais pas dans la Commissure Antérieure. Nos résultats montrent qu'une dérégulation redox d'origine génétique perturbe la structure et la fonction de la substance blanche dans des régions spécifiques, causant ainsi l'élargissement des ventricules. Ces phénotypes rassemblent certaines caractéristiques neuro-anatomiques de la schizophrénie, mais les mécanismes qui en sont responsables demeurent encore inconnus. L'isolement social n'a pas d'effet sur la structure de la substance blanche évaluée par DTI, alors qu'il est prouvé qu'il affecte la maturation des oligodendrocytes. La neurochimie corticale et en particulier le rapport Glutamine/Glutamate a été affecté par le dérèglement redox ainsi que par l'isolement social. En conséquence, ce ratio représente un indice prometteur dans la recherche sur l'interaction du stress environnemental avec le déséquilibre redox dans le domaine de la schizophrénie. -- The present doctoral thesis is concerned with the role that a genetic risk factor for the development of schizophrenia, namely a deficit in Glutathione synthesis, may play in the anomalies of brain connectivity found in patients. Most of the effort was devoted to perform a whole-brain assessment of white matter structure in the Glutamate-Cysteine ligase modulatory knockout mouse model (Gclm KO) using Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) techniques similar to those used in state-of-the-art clinical research. Such reverse translational approach taking brain imaging from the bedside to the bench aimed to investigate the role that deficient redox defenses may play in the development of brain connections while excluding all influencing factors beside the genotype. After establishing the protocol, the influence of further environmental manipulations was also studied. Analysis of MRI images acquired in vivo was one of the main challenges of the project. Our strategy consisted in creating an atlas of the mouse brain to use as segmentation guide and then analyze the data from each region of interest separately. The quality of the method was assessed in a simulation experiment by calculating the statistical power achievable in each brain region at different sample sizes. This analysis tool enabled us to assess white matter integrity in the mouse brain along development in a longitudinal experiment using Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI). We discovered anomalies in diffusivity parameters derived from the tensor in the Anterior Commissure and Fimbria/Fornix of Gclm KO mice when compared to wild-type animals, which suggest that the structure of these tracts is compromised in the KO mice. In an elegant electrophysiological experiment, Pascal Steullet has provided evidence that these anomalies have functional consequences in form of reduced conduction velocity in the concerned tracts, thus supporting the DTI findings. The mechanism by which redox dysregulation affects WM structure remains unknown, for the immunohistochemical analysis of myelin constituent proteins in the concerned tracts produced inconclusive results. Our experiments also detected an enlargement of the lateral ventricles in young but not adult Gclm KO mice and confirmed neurochemical anomalies already known to affect this animals (Duarte et al. 2011), namely a reduction in Glutathione and an increase in Glutamine/Glutamate ratio, N-acetylaspartate and Alanine. Using the same methods, we tested the effect of an additional environmental stress on the observed phenotype: rearing in social isolation had no effect on white matter structure as assessed by DTI, but it reduced the concentration of myo-Inositol and increased the Glutamine/Glutamate ratio in the frontal cortex. We could also replicate in this separate group of animals the effects of genotype on the frontal neurochemical profile, ventricular size and diffusivity parameters in the Fimbria/Fornix but not in the Anterior Commissure. Our data show that a redox dysregulation of genetic origin may disrupt white matter structure and function in specific tracts and cause a ventricular enlargement, phenotypes that resemble some neuroanatomical features of schizophrenia. The mechanism responsible remains however unknown. We have also demonstrated that environmental stress in form of social isolation does not affect white matter structure as assessed by DTI even though it is known to affect oligodendrocyte maturation. Cortical neurochemistry, and specifically the Glutamine to Glutamate balance was affected both by redox dysregulation and social isolation, and is thus a good target for further research on the interaction of redox imbalance and environmental stress in schizophrenia.

Exact Nonparametric Two-Sample Homogeneity Tests for Possibly Discrete Distributions.

In this paper, we study several tests for the equality of two unknown distributions. Two are based on empirical distribution functions, three others on nonparametric probability density estimates, and the last ones on differences between sample moments. We suggest controlling the size of such tests (under nonparametric assumptions) by using permutational versions of the tests jointly with the method of Monte Carlo tests properly adjusted to deal with discrete distributions. We also propose a combined test procedure, whose level is again perfectly controlled through the Monte Carlo test technique and has better power properties than the individual tests that are combined. Finally, in a simulation experiment, we show that the technique suggested provides perfect control of test size and that the new tests proposed can yield sizeable power improvements.