Seasonal concentration decomposition across segments of tourism demand

A la hora de aplicar medidas desestacionalizadoras, a los gestores de destinos turísticos les resulta complicado identificar qué tipo de turistas contribuyen a la desestacionalización, ya que estos turistas potenciales pueden estar pasando desapercibido por no disponer de una metodología que los identifique. Teniendo en cuenta esta deficiencia, en esta tesis se ha querido conseguir un enfoque de medición que proporcione información acerca del tipo de turista objetivo para reducir la concentración estacional en los destinos analizados. Para ello, la metodología que se emplea en esta tesis, que incluye la descomposición aditiva del índice de Gini, proporciona información acerca de la contribución de cada segmento de demanda a la concentración estacional total de un destino. Mediante el empleo de dicha descomposición, el componente estacional puede ser expresado a través de unos efectos relativos marginales que permiten identificar a aquellos turistas que se manifiesten más favorables para reducir la estacionalidad. De manera complementaria, se han estimado los factores estacionales mediante el método multiplicativo que sirven para mejorar el análisis ya que proporcionan los patrones estacionales de los segmentos de demanda analizados. Además, según el destino analizado, se han utilizado clasificaciones complejas atendiendo al origen del turista, su principal motivación de viaje y la región visitada dentro de cada uno de los destinos analizados, las cuales, han permitido discernir con mayor precisión dentro de clasificaciones poco homogéneas. La metodología empleada en esta tesis se propone como una medida de control y seguimiento con la que, analizando la evolución de los efectos relativos marginales a lo largo del período de los que se dispongan datos suficientemente desagregados y, sobre todo, del último año, podrían ajustarse las políticas turísticas orientadas a reducir los efectos de la estacionalidad. Con la aplicación de la metodología propuesta en los destinos turísticos analizados, en los que se ha empleado un nivel de desagregación suficiente, se pretende aportar información adicional a los gestores del turismo en cuanto a qué turistas deben dirigir sus políticas de captación, siempre y cuando su objetivo sea reducir la concentración estacional en estos destinos. Del mismo modo, se pretende conseguir una mejora de la efectividad de las políticas contra la estacionalidad, dirigiéndolas hacia aquellos segmentos de demanda identificados como menos propensos a la estacionalidad. Esta tesis ha sido elaborada por compendio de publicaciones y se ha estructurado en siete capítulos. El primer capítulo es una introducción donde se presentan las implicaciones de esta tesis en cuanto a los aspectos relacionados con la estacionalidad, así como la metodología empleada para la medición de la misma en los destinos analizados. En los siguientes capítulos se analiza la concentración estacional de tres destinos y sus regiones: el litoral de Andalucía (segundo y tercer capítulo), Argentina (cuarto y quinto capítulo), y el Reino Unido (sexto capítulo). Los resultados se muestran con la copia incluida de las cinco publicaciones que conforman esta tesis. Por último, se proporciona las conclusiones en el séptimo capítulo, donde se muestra un análisis general y un resumen de las conclusiones de todas las contribuciones.

Seasonal concentration of cruise tourism in the Mediterranean

This research delves into analyzing the seasonality of cruise tourism in the Mediterranean by using the decomposition of the Gini index, used in the field of cruise tourism for the first time in literature. This study specifically used the decomposition to evaluate the contribution degree of each port to the global seasonal concentration of each Mediterranean region. Moreover, a cluster analysis technique (bootstrapped bagged clustering) was applied to classify the ports into homogeneous groups according to their seasonal patterns given the significant heterogeneity revealed in the major regions of the Mediterranean. The methodology applied can serve as a control and monitoring tool for measuring seasonal concentration levels in cruise tourism, allowing for policies against seasonality to be tailored in the cruise tourism segment.

Transmission efficiency of Xylella fastidiosa by sharpshooters (Hemiptera : Cicadellidae) in coffee and citrus

Xylella fastidiosa (Wells, Raju, Hung, Weisburg, Mandelco-Paul, and Brenner) is a bacteria] pathogen transmitted by several Sharpshooters in two tribes of Cicadellinae (Proconiini and Cicadellini). Here, we compared the transmission efficiency of X. fastidiosa in coffee (Coffea arabica L) and citrus [Citrus sinensis (L) Osbeck] by Cicadellini [Bucephalogonia xanthophis (Berg) and Dilobopterus costalimai Young] and Proconiini [Homalodisca ignorata Melichar and Oncometopia facialis (Signoret) I sharpshooters that Occur in both crops. At different seasons, healthy adults of each species were submitted to a 48-h acquisition access period on citrus or coffee source plants infected with X. fastidiosa isolates that cause Citrus variegated chlorosis (CVC) and Coffee leaf scorch (CLS), respectively, and then confined on healthy seedlings of the corresponding host plant for a 48-h inoculation access period. No significant effect of inoculation season was observed when comparing infection rates of citrus or coffee plants inoculated by vectors at different times of the year. In Citrus, the transmission rate by single insects was significantly higher for H. ignorata (30%) in relation to B. xanthophis (5%) and O. facialis (1.1%) but there was no difference among vector species in coffee, whose transmission rates ranged from 1.2 to 7.2%. Comparing host plants, H. ignorata was more effective in transmitting X. fastidiosa to citrus (30%) in relation to coffee (2.2%), whereas the other vectors transmitted the bacterium to both hosts with similar efficiencies. Despite these variations. vector efficiency in coffee and Citrus is lower than that reported in other hosts.

Variación de la concentración de nitratos en un suelo franco limoso del Alto Valle de Río Negro.

La abundancia y bajo costo del recurso hídrico en el Alto Valle de Río Negro combinados con un manejo ineficiente del mismo, principalmente durante la primera parte de la primavera, época en la que los productores riegan con mayor frecuencia para luchar pasivamente contra las probables heladas tardías, permiten inferir que los nitratos presentes en el suelo, así como el aportado por los fertilizantes nitrogenados, están sujetos al lixiviado durante una gran parte del ciclo productivo. En la actualidad no existen estudios regionales que ilustren la variación estacional de la concentración de nitratos en la zona de exploración radical de frutales, por lo que se inició el presente trabajo con el propósito de: a) medir la concentración de los nitratos en el perfil del suelo cultivado con manzanos, desde el período de floración hasta el inicio de caída de hojas, con fertilización nitrogenada en dos dosis y sin fertilización a distintas profundidades de extracción; b) determinar la eficiencia del riego a manto de dicho monte. Se ensayaron dos concentraciones de nitrógeno, adicionado como nitrato de amonio en dos oportunidades: el 50% a la caída de los pétalos y el 50% restante cercano a la cosecha, correspondiendo a dosis de 100 kg ha-1 (N1), 200 kg ha-1 (N2) y un testigo sin agregado de N (N0), durante el período 2004-2005 y 2005-2006. Para determinar los niveles de N en el suelo, expresado como nitratos, se extrajeron muestras del mismo a tres profundidades 0-30; 30-60; 60-90 cm, al inicio de floración, antes del primer riego y después de cada riego. La lámina de agua empleada para el riego a manto osciló entre 1712 y 2400 mm, con un aprovechamiento a campo del 30%. La concentración de nitratos fue baja cuando no se fertilizó, manteniéndose alrededor de 22 mg kg-1 en superficie y reduciéndose a la mitad a la profundidad de 30-60 cm, durante el período de muestreo. En ambas dosis empleadas, el contenido de nitratos del suelo fue mayor llegando a 175 y 300 mg kg-1, respectivamente. Estos valores se igualan a los del testigo a los 30 días en el caso de N1 y a los 60 días para N2. Los resultados permiten inferir que la concentración de nitratos fue efímera en el perfil del suelo y mejoró la eficiencia de riego, principalmente durante la primavera con el fin de minimizar pérdidas de nitrógeno.

Year-round chemical aerosol records at Kohnen, Antarctica obtained by automatic samplings

Aimed at year-round recording of the chemical aerosol composition in central Antarctica, an unattended operating aerosol sampler was successfully deployed at the EPICA deep drilling site in Dronning Maud Land (Kohnen Station). Analyses of teflon/nylon filter packs consecutively collected over bi-weekly intervals during the February 2003 to December 2005 period allowed to evaluate seasonal concentration variations of methane sulphonate (MS), Cl-, NO3-, non-sea salt (nss-)SO4**2- and Na+, while NH4+ and mineral dust related ion results remained below detection limits. For MS and nss-SO4**2 distinct late summer maxima around 44 and 200 ng/m**3, respectively, were found, while (total) NO3- showed a broad November maximum of about 52 ng m**-3. In contrast, the highest concentrations of Na+ with peak values of up to 160 ng/m**3 were observed during the winter half year. The seasonality of these species broadly coincided with long-term observations at the coastal Neumayer Station, including surprisingly comparable NO3- levels. However, the biogenic sulphur and sea salt concentrations were lower at Kohnen by typically a factor of 2-3 and 10, respectively. The arrival of sea ice derived sea salt particles at Kohnen could not clearly detected, since even during mid-winter the nss-SO4**2- to Na+ ratio was generally too high to unambiguously identify a sulphur depleted sea salt SO4**2- fraction.

Seasonal Distributions of Satellite-Measured Phytoplankton Pigment Concentration Along the Chilean Coast

Five years (1979-1983) of Coastal Zone Color Scanner satellite ocean color data are used to examine seasonal patterns of phytoplankton pigment concentration along the Chilean coast from 20 degrees S to 45 degrees S. Four kilometer resolution, 2-4 day composites document the presence of filaments of elevated pigment concentration extending offshore throughout the study area, with maximum offshore extension at higher latitudes. In three years, 1979, 1981, and 1983, sufficient data exist in monthly composites to allow recreation of portions of the seasonal cycle. Data in 1979 are the most complete. Near-shore concentrations and cross-shelf extension of pigment concentrations in 1979 are maximum in austral winter throughout the study area and minimum in summer. Available data from 1981 and 1983 are consistent with this temporal pattern but with concentrations approximately double those of 1979. Seasonal, spatial patterns within 10 km of shore and 50 km offshore indicate a latitudinal discontinuity both in absolute concentration and in the magnitude of the seasonal cycle at approximately 33 degrees S in both 1979 and in the climatological time series. The discontinuity is strongest ill fall-winter and weakest in summer. South of this latitude, concentrations are relatively high (2-3 mg m(-3) in 1979), a strong seasonal cycle is present, and patterns 50 km offshore are correlated with those within 10 km of shore. North of 33 degrees S, concentrations are < 1.5 mg m(-3) (in 1979), and the seasonal cycle within 10 km of shore is present but much weaker and less obviously correlated with that 50 km offshore. The seasonal cycle of pigment concentrations is 180 degrees out of phase with monthly averaged upwelling favorable winds. Noncoincident Pathfinder sea surface temperature data show that over most latitudes, coastal low surface temperatures lag wind forcing by 1-2 months, but these too are out of phase with the pigment seasonal cycle. These data point to control of pigment patterns along the Chilean coast by the interaction of upwelling with circulation patterns unconnected to local wind forcing.

Area-averaged mean seasonal cycles of chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature, alongshore wind stress, westward wind speed and dust component of the aerosol optical depth at 550 nm

Nutrient supply in the area off Northwest Africa is mainly regulated by two processes, coastal upwelling and deposition of Saharan dust. In the present study, both processes were analyzed and evaluated by different methods, including cross-correlation, multiple correlation, and event statistics, using remotely sensed proxies of the period from 2000 to 2008 to investigate their influence on the marine environment. The remotely sensed chlorophyll-a concentration was used as a proxy for the phytoplankton biomass stimulated by nutrient supply into the euphotic zone from deeper water layers and from the atmosphere. Satellite-derived alongshore wind stress and sea-surface temperature were applied as proxies for the strength and reflection of coastal upwelling processes. The westward wind and the dust component of the aerosol optical depth describe the transport direction of atmospheric dust and the atmospheric dust column load. Alongshore wind stress and induced upwelling processes were most significantly responsible for the surface chlorophyll-a variability, accounting for about 24% of the total variance, mainly in the winter and spring due to the strong north-easterly trade winds. The remotely sensed proxies allowed determination of time lags between biological response and its forcing processes. A delay of up to 16 days in the surface chlorophyll-a concentration due to the alongshore wind stress was determined in the northern winter and spring. Although input of atmospheric iron by dust storms can stimulate new phytoplankton production in the study area, only 5% of the surface chlorophyll-a variability could be ascribed to the dust component in the aerosol optical depth. All strong desert storms were identified by an event statistics in the time period from 2000 to 2008. The 57 strong storms were studied in relation to their biological response. Six events were clearly detected in which an increase of chlorophyll-a was caused by Saharan dust input and not by coastal upwelling processes. Time lags of <8 days, 8 days, and 16 days were determined. An increase in surface chlorophyll-a concentration of up to 2.4 mg m**3 after dust storms in which the dust component of the aerosol optical depth was up to 0.9 was observed.

(Table 1) Seasonal sea ice concentration and the observed changes from 1972 to 2007 for the Southern Beaufort Sea

A reliable data set of Arctic sea ice concentration based on satellite observations exists since 1972. Over this time period of 36 years western arctic temperatures have increased; the temperature rise varies significantly from one season to another and over multi-year time scales. In contrast to most of Alaska, however, on the North Slope the warming continued after 1976, when a circulation change occurred, as expressed in the PDO index. The mean temperature increase for Barrow over the 36-year period was 2.9°C, a very substantial change. Wind speeds increased by 18% over this time period, however, the increase were non-linear and showed a peak in the early 1990s. The sea ice extent of the Arctic Ocean has decreased strongly in recent years, and in September 2007 a new record in the amount of open water was recorded in the Western Arctic. We observed for the Southern Beaufort Sea a fairly steady increase in the mean annual amount of open water from 14% in 1972 to 39% in 2007, as deduced from the best linear fit. In late summer the decrease is much larger, and September has, on average, the least ice concentration (22%), followed by August (35%) and October (54%). The correlation coefficient between mean annual values of temperature and sea ice concentration was 0.84. On a monthly basis, the best correlation coefficient was found in October with 0.88. However, the relationship between winter temperatures and the sea ice break-up in summer was weak. While the temperature correlated well with the CO2 concentration (r=0.86), the correlation coefficient between CO2 and sea ice was lower (r=-0.68). After comparing the ice concentration with 17 circulation indices, the best relation was found with the Pacific Circulation Index (r=-0.59).

Within-stand and seasonal variations of specific leaf area in a clonal Eucalyptus plantation in the Republic of Congo

Specific leaf area (SLA; m(leaf)(2) kg(leaf)(-1)) is a key ecophysiological parameter influencing leaf physiology, photosynthesis, and whole plant carbon gain. Both individual tree-based models and other forest process-based models are generally highly sensitive to this parameter, but information on its temporal or within-stand variability is still scarce. In a 2-4-year-old Eucalyptus plantation in Congo, prone to seasonal drought, the within-stand and seasonal variability in SLA were investigated by means of destructive sampling carried out at 2-month intervals, over a 2-year period. Within-crown vertical gradients of SLA were small. Highly significant relationships were found between tree-average SLA (SLA(t)) and tree size (tree height, H(t), or diameter at breast height, DBH): SLA(t) ranged from about 9 m(2) kg(-1) for dominant trees to about 14-15 m(2) kg(-1) for the smallest trees. The decrease in SLA(t) with increasing tree size was accurately predicted from DBH using power functions. Stand-average SLA varied by about 20% during the year, with lowest values at the end of the 5-month dry season, and highest values about 2-3 months after the onset of the wet season. Variability in leaf water status according to tree size and season is discussed as a possible determinant of both the within-stand and seasonal variations in SM. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal Variation of the (E)-Nerolidol and Other Volatile Compounds Within Ten Different Cultivated Populations of Baccharis dracunculifolia DC (Asteraceae)

Initially, the seeds of Baccharis dracunculifolia were collected from populations of 10 different regions, and the cultivation experiment was carried out in an experimental area of 1,800 m(2) by cultivating 100 individuals of each population. The essential oil analyses were performed on both GC-FID and GUMS, which allowed the identification of 14 compounds. The oil yield varied from 0.31% to 0.70% among populations and season. The major oxygenated sesquiterpenes in the cultivated experiment were (E)-nerolidol (32%) and spathulenol (17%). The mean concentration in the plant of (E)-nerolidol was five times higher in March (136.53 mg/100 g of plant) than it was in July (25.03 mg/100 g of plant). The mean concentration of spathulenol increased about three fold from July (16.25 mg/100 g of plant) to April (47.50 mg/100 g of plant).

Development of a satellite based PM10 concentration product for urban areas

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia do Ambiente

Total IgE and eotaxin (CCL11) contents in tears of patients suffering from seasonal allergic conjunctivitis.

BACKGROUND: To prospectively investigate patients with seasonal allergic conjunctivitis (SAC) during the pollen season and test associations between tears total IgE, eotaxin concentrations, and SAC severity. METHODS: Enrolled patients presented ocular symptoms and clinical signs of SAC at the time of presentation. Ocular itching, hyperaemia, chemosis, eyelid swelling, and tearing were scored, and the sum of these scores was defined as the clinical score. Conjunctival papillae were separately graded. We measured eotaxin concentration in tears by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and total tear IgE by Lacrytest strip. RESULTS: Among thirty patients (30 eyes), 11 showed neither tear IgE nor tear eotaxin, while 15 out of 19 patients with positive IgE values presented a positive amount of eotaxin in their tears (Fisher's test: p < 0.001). The mean eotaxin concentration was 641 ± 154 (SEM) pg/ml. In patients with no amount of tear IgE, we observed a lower conjunctival papilla grade than in patients whose tears contained some amount of IgE (trend test: p = 0.032). In the 15 patients whose tear eotaxin concentration was null, tear IgE concentration was 5.3 ± 3.5 arbitrary units; in the other 15 patients whose eotaxin was positive, IgE reached 21 ± 4.3 arbitrary U (Mann-Whitney: p < 0.001). We measured 127 ± 47 pg/ml eotaxin in patients with no history of SAC but newly diagnosed as suffering from SAC, and 852 ± 218 pg/ml eotaxin in patients with a known SAC (p = 0.008). In contrast, tear IgE concentrations of both groups did not differ statistically significantly (p = 0.947). CONCLUSIONS: If IgE and eotaxin secreted in tears are major contributors in SAC pathogenesis, they however act at different steps of the process.

Oseltamivir in seasonal, avian H5N1 and pandemic 2009 A/H1N1 influenza: pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics.

Oseltamivir is the ester-type prodrug of the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir carboxylate. It has been shown to be an effective treatment for both seasonal influenza and the recent pandemic 2009 A/H1N1 influenza, reducing both the duration and severity of the illness. It is also effective when used preventively. This review aims to describe the current knowledge of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics of this agent, and to address the issue of possible therapeutic drug monitoring. According to the currently available literature, the pharmacokinetics of oseltamivir carboxylate after oral administration of oseltamivir are characterized by mean ± SD bioavailability of 79 ± 12%, apparent clearance of 25.3 ± 7.0 L/h, an elimination half-life of 7.4 ± 2.5 hours and an apparent terminal volume of distribution of 267 ± 122 L. A maximum plasma concentration of 342 ± 83 μg/L, a time to reach the maximum plasma concentration of 4.2 ± 1.1 hours, a trough plasma concentration of 168 ± 32 μg/L and an area under the plasma concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 hours of 6110 ± 1330 μg · h/L for a 75 mg twice-daily regimen were derived from literature data. The apparent clearance is highly correlated with renal function, hence the dosage needs to be adjusted in proportion to the glomerular filtration rate. Interpatient variability is moderate (28% in apparent clearance and 46% in the apparent central volume of distribution); there is no indication of significant erratic or limited absorption in given patient subgroups. The in vitro pharmacodynamics of oseltamivir carboxylate reveal wide variation in the concentration producing 50% inhibition of influenza A and B strains (range 0.17-44 μg/L). A formal correlation between systemic exposure to oseltamivir carboxylate and clinical antiviral activity or tolerance in influenza patients has not yet been demonstrated; thus no formal therapeutic or toxic range can be proposed. The pharmacokinetic parameters of oseltamivir carboxylate after oseltamivir administration (bioavailability, apparent clearance and the volume of distribution) are fairly predictable in healthy subjects, with little interpatient variability outside the effect of renal function in all patients and bodyweight in children. Thus oseltamivir carboxylate exposure can probably be controlled with sufficient accuracy by thorough dosage adjustment according to patient characteristics. However, there is a lack of clinical study data on naturally infected patients. In addition, the therapeutic margin of oseltamivir carboxylate is poorly defined. The usefulness of systematic therapeutic drug monitoring in patients therefore appears to be questionable; however, studies are still needed to extend the knowledge to particular subgroups of patients or dosage regimens.

Eotaxin-1 (CCL11) up-regulation in tears during seasonal allergic conjunctivitis.

PURPOSE: To compare in-season eotaxin-1 levels in tears of patients suffering from seasonal allergic conjunctivitis (SAC) with (1) tears of normal subjects and (2) tears of SAC patients out of season. METHODS: Tears of 11 SAC patients and six control volunteers were collected during the pollen season. Tears of five SAC patients showing a strong sensitivity to grass pollen (skin-prick tests and specific serum IgE) were collected both in season and out of season. ELISA measured eotaxin-1 level. RESULTS: Eotaxin-1 concentration in tears of SAC patients [2,100+/-503 (SEM) pg/ml] and normal subjects (1,193+/-176 pg/ml) were significantly different (P=0.0049). Regarding allergic patients, the clinical score (sum of five allergic criteria) was significantly different in season and out of season (P=0.0043) as was also the case with eotaxin-1 concentration (P=0.024). CONCLUSIONS: The eotaxin-1 concentration in tears of patients showing hay fever could confirm a diagnosis of seasonal ocular allergy.

Daily precipitation concentration across Europe 1971-2010

Daily Precipitation Concentration Index (CI) was used in this paper to investigate the statistical structure of daily precipitation across Europe based on 530 daily rainfall series for the period 1971-2010. Annual CI shows a North- West to South-East gradient (excluding Turkey and Greece). The same gradient is also observed in winter, spring and autumn, while in summer the gradient is North-South. Highest annual and seasonal daily concentrations of rainfall were detected in the western Mediterranean basin, mainly along Spanish and French coastlands. Latitude and distance from the sea seems to play a major role on spatial CI distribution; at subregional scale also relief plays an important role. The Mann-Kendall test did not identify uniform significant pattern in temporal trend across Europe for 1971-2010 period. The only broad areas with increasing annual and seasonal CI values are located in northern and south-western France and northern coastlands of the Iberian Peninsula. This findings suggest that daily precipitation distribution has not significantly changed during the 1971-2010 over Europe.