MODIS-based vegetation index has sufficient sensitivity to indicate stand-level intra-seasonal climatic stress in oak and beech forests

Context: Variation in photosynthetic activity of trees induced by climatic stress can be effectively evaluated using remote sensing data. Although adverse effects of climate on temperate forests have been subjected to increased scrutiny, the suitability of remote sensing imagery for identification of drought stress in such forests has not been explored fully. Aim: To evaluate the sensitivity of MODIS-based vegetation index to heat and drought stress in temperate forests, and explore the differences in stress response of oaks and beech. Methods: We identified 8 oak and 13 beech pure and mature stands, each covering between 4 and 13 MODIS pixels. For each pixel, we extracted a time series of MODIS NDVI from 2000 to 2010. We identified all sequences of continuous unseasonal NDVI decline to be used as the response variable indicative of environmental stress. Neural Networks-based regression modelling was then applied to identify the climatic variables that best explain observed NDVI declines. Results: Tested variables explained 84–97% of the variation in NDVI, whilst air temperature-related climate extremes were found to be the most influential. Beech showed a linear response to the most influential climatic predictors, while oak responded in a unimodal pattern suggesting a better coping mechanism. Conclusions: MODIS NDVI has proved sufficiently sensitive as a stand-level indicator of climatic stress acting upon temperate broadleaf forests, leading to its potential use in predicting drought stress from meteorological observations and improving parameterisation of forest stress indices.

Seasonal population dynamics in Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Analysis of Climatic Factors Impact on RSV Infection Distribution in Children Attending Childcare at Northwest Region of São Paulo, Brazil

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was detected in samples collected from children from 0 to 6 years of age with acute respiratory infection, attending public childcare on Northwest region of São Paulo, Brazil. RSV distribution was associated to seasonal climatic variables as temperature, rainfall and relative air humidity. We utilized samples of nasopharyngeal aspirate collected during the period of July 2003 to September 2005. RT-PCR was the chosen method for viral identification. Results showed that from the 817 samples (collected from 179 children), 7.7% (63/817) were RSV positive. In 2003, RSV was detected from July until October. In 2004, RSV infections occurred in March, May, June, July, October, November, and December. In 2005, RSV was detected in March, April, May, August, and September. RSV circulation patterns in childcare children showed seasonal distribution associated to decreases in temperature and relative air humidity. RSV was detected in childcare children as an important viral agent causing respiratory infections, with varying patterns of circulation into the cohort during the study period. Moreover, RSV distribution showed to be associated with the dry season on Northwest region of São Paulo, Brazil.

SEASONAL INCREMENT IN TRUNK DIAMETER OF Eucalyptus grandis TREES APPLYING DENDROMETER BANDS

The present work aimed to evaluate the seasonal increment in diameter of Eucalyptus grandis trees for 24 months and its relationship with the climatic variables and fertilization with nitrogen and with sewer mud. The trees were planted in the spacing of 3 x 2 m and fertilized with nitrogen (planting, 6, 12, 18 months) and sewer mud (planting and 8 months). 20 trees were selected by treatment according witch the distribution of basal area and installed dendrometer bands at a 1.3 meter. The results showed a clear effect of the climatic variables on the seasonal increment in diameter of trees, being observed a delay period (lag) of 28 days for the answer of the trees in relation to the climatic variables. Regading to the fertilization effect, it was observed that the increment of trunk diameter was higher in the eucalypt trees with organic in relation to mineral fertilization with nitrogen.

Seasonal dynamics of cyanobacteria in a eutrophic reservoir (Arcoverde) in a semi-arid region of Brazil

Environmental conditions favor the predominance of dense populations of cyanobacteria in reservoirs in northeastern Brazil. The aim of this study was to understand cyanobacterial population dynamics in the rainy and dry seasons at two depths in the Arcoverde reservoir. Microalgae and cyanobacteria samples were collected during 24 hours with intervals of 4 hours (nycthemeral) at sub-surface and 10 m using a van Dorn bottle and a determined biomass. Physical and chemical variables were obtained and the data were analyzed using the principal component analysis (PCA). No nycthemeral variations in the taxonomic composition or distribution of the populations of cyanobacteria were found between the different times of day in either the rainy or dry season. In both seasons, the greatest biomass of the phytoplankton community was made up of cyanobacteria at two depths and all times of the day. Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Woloszynska) Seenayya et Subba Raju was dominant at all times of the day on both the surface and at the bottom. In the rainy season, the differences in cyanobacterial biomass between the surface and bottom were less significant than in the dry season. The differences in cyanobacterial biomass between surface and bottom were less pronounced than those found in the dry season. We concluded that a) physical variables better explain the alterations of species in the phytoplankton community in an environment dominated by cyanobacteria throughout the year; b) seasonal climatic factors associated to periods of stratification and de-stratification are important for alterations in the community and variations in biomass and, c) the turbidity caused by rainfall favored the emergence and establishment of other cyanobacteria, especially Planktothrix agardhii (Gomont) Anagnostidis & Komarek.

Intra-annual patterns of tracheid size in the Mediterranean tree Juniperus thurifera as an indicator of seasonal water stress

Because climate can affect xylem cell anatomy, series of intra-annual cell anatomical features have the potential to retrospectively supply seasonal climatic information. In this study, we explored the ability to extract information about water stress conditions from tracheid features of the Mediterranean conifer Juniperus thurifera L. Tracheidograms of four climatic years from two drought-sensitive sites in Spain were compared to evaluate whether it is possible to link intra-annual cell size patterns to seasonal climatic conditions. Results indicated site-specific anatomical adjustment such as smaller and thicker tracheids at the dryer site but also showed a strong climatic imprint on the intra-annual pattern of tracheid size. Site differences in cell size reflected expected structural adjustments against cavitation failures. Differences between intra-annual patterns, however, indicated a response to seasonal changes in water availability whereby cells formed under drought conditions were smaller and thicker, and vice versa. This relationship was more manifest and stable at the dryer site

Field instrumentation of a water reticulation pipe buried in reactive soil

The loss of valuable water resources due to pipe failure has become a major problem in Australia, especially in areas under high level of water restrictions. Generally pipe failure occurs due to a combination of physical and environmental factors. Stresses induced by shrinking and swelling of reactive soils are one of the major factors affecting the performance of buried pipes. This paper presents the details of a field instrumentation undertaken to monitor the performance of an in-service water reticulation pipe buried in a reactive soil and subjected to seasonal climatic changes.

Response of a plastic pipe buried in expansive clay

Failure of buried pipes due to reactive soil movement (e.g. shrinking/swelling) is a common problem for water and gas pipe networks in Australia and the world. Soil movement is closely related to seasonal climatic change, and particularly to the moisture content of soil. Although some research has been carried out to understand the effect of freezing and thawing of soils and temperature effects in colder climates, very limited research has been undertaken to examine the possible failure mechanisms of pipes buried in reactive soils. This study reports the responses of a 2 m long polyethylene pipe buried in reactive clay in a box under laboratory conditions. The soil and pipe movements were measured as the soil was wetted from the bottom of the box. It was observed that the pipe underwent substantial deformation as the soil swelled with increase of the moisture content. The results are explained with a simplified numerical analysis.

Assessing the biological control potential of an adventitiously-established "pest", Scirtothrips aurantii (Faure), on a weed, Bryophyllum delagoense (Eckl. & Zeyh.), in Queensland

South African citrus thrips (Scirtothrips aurantii) established adventitiously in Australia. Although it is a major horticultural pest in Africa, it is now advocated as a possible biological control agent against Bryophyllum delagoense Eckl. & Zeyh. (Crassulaceae). To evaluate the biocontrol potential of S. aurantii a two year field study was conducted on the western Darling Downs of southern Queensland. Imidacloprid insecticide was applied to two quadrats at each of 18 field sites to assess, in the absence of S. aurantii, the persistence of individual plants and to quantify propagule production and recruitment by this declared weed. A third quadrat was left, as a control, to be infested naturally by S. aurantii. When released from herbivory by thrips in the field, plants grew significantly more, flowered more, and were significantly more fecund than plants in the quadrats with S. aurantii. Increases in growth and fecundity translated into significantly increased plant numbers but not increased recruitment. Recruitment even declined in experimental quadrats, through the indirect effects of releasing plants from herbivory. Field sampling also revealed that S. aurantii may be sensitive to seasonal climatic fluctuations. These and other local climatic influences may limit the biological control potential of the insect.

ACIAR Feasibility of farmers managing climate related crop production risk in India

Validation of new Indian seasonal climate forecasting products. In the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh (AP) kharif crops are heavily dependent on summer monsoon rains, where the timing and intensity of the rains affects crop yield. The majority of farms in AP are small and marginal, making them very vulnerable to yield reductions. Farmers also lack access to relevant information that might enable them to respond to seasonal conditions. Enabling farmers to utilise seasonal climate forecasting would allow them to respond to seasonal variability. To do this, farmers need a forecasting system that indicates a specific management strategy for the upcoming season, and effective and timely communication of the forecast information. Current agro-meteorological advisories in AP are issued on a bi-weekly basis, and they are relevant to an agro-climatic zone scale which may not be sufficiently relevant at a village level. Also, the information in the advisories may not be necessarily packaged in way relevant to cropping decisions by farmers. The objectives of this project are to evaluate the skill of seasonal climate forecasts to be issued for the 2008 monsoon season, to assess crop management options in response to seasonal scenarios that capture the range of seasonal climatic variability, to develop and evaluate options for effective communication and adoption of climate forecasts and agricultural advisories, and to synthesise and report on options for future research investments into seasonal climate forecasting.

Bird diversity and environmental gradients in Britain:a test of the species-energy hypothesis

1. We tested the species diversity-energy hypothesis using the British bird fauna. This predicts that temperature patterns should match diversity patterns. We also tested the hypothesis that the mechanism operates directly through effects of temperature on thermoregulatory loads; this further predicts that seasonal changes in temperature cause matching changes in patterns of diversity, and that species' body mass is influential.

2. We defined four assemblages using migration status (residents or visitors) and season (summer or winter distribution). Records of species' presence/absence in a total of 2362, 10 x 10-km, quadrats covering most of Britain were used, together with a wide selection of habitat, topographic and seasonal climatic data.

3. We fitted a logistic regression model to each species' distribution using the environmental data. We then combined these individual species models mathematically to form a diversity model. Analysis of this composite model revealed that summer temperature was the factor most strongly associated with diversity.

4. Although the species-energy hypothesis was supported, the direct mechanism, predicting an important role for body mass and matching seasonal patterns of change between diversity and temperature, was not supported.

5. However, summer temperature is the best overall explanation for bird diversity patterns in Britain. It is a better predictor of winter diversity than winter temperature. Winter diversity is predicted more precisely from environmental factors than summer diversity.

6. Climate change is likely to influence the diversity of different areas to different extents; for resident species, low diversity areas may respond more strongly as climate change progresses. For winter visitors, higher diversity areas may respond more strongly, while summer visitors are approximately neutral.

Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

Dinâmica Costeira dos Campos petrolíferos Macau/Serra, litoral setentrional do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte

This thesis describes the general behavior of the northern shore of the State of Rio Grande do Norte relating beach profile morphology with hydrodynamic and sedimentological parameters. The Macau and Serra Oil Field are inserted on this area and are under accelerated coastal erosion. At these oil fields are installed oil wells from PETROBRAS, nowadays located directly in the shoreline, under constant attacks of coastal processes (e.g. waves, tides and currents), which promote an intense morphodynamic variability of this sandy coast. The area was monitored for 24 months in three different stations (P01, P02 and P03). The methodology applied involved current techniques of beach profiles, hydrodynamical processes, remote sensing and geophysics. A synthesis of results obtained through the use of different time scales (monthly, lunar cycle, seasonal, annual) from a coastal dynamics study is presented. The average wind direction corresponded to 77ºAz (NE). The steepness of the berm and of the shoreface, as well as coastal current direction, do not present major changes, with an average of 36º for the steepness of the berm, 15º for the shoreface and 15º for the coastal current direction. This data set allows us to infer that the months of larger coastal erosion were November/2000 and April/2001, because of the largest wave parameter during this time. The months of worse coastal erosion in this area are related with the increasing wavy energy. This in turn, seems to be related to seasonal climatic variations, with the wave energy and tide currents speed increasing during months of minor precipitations (June to January). The months of worse coastal erosion were September and November, when the largest wave parameters and speed currents are measured in the area. Since these months are included on the period of minor precipitations, we related the coastal erosion to seasonal climatic variations. The results obtained during these 24 months of monitoring confirms a situation of accentuated erosion, mainly in Profile 03 (Barra do Corta-Cachorro), where the wave height, period, and coastal current speed are always larger than the values found in Profile 02 (Macau5). Probably these values are more expressive in Profile 03, because it does not present any natural structure of protection against the wave impacts, as the barrier island located at Ponta do Tubarão, or the sand banks in front of Macau5. The transport of the sediments occurs from East to West, and the sand accumulation is more pronounced on Profile 03 intertidal zone, where there are embrionary dunes in dryer months. The tidal currents speed, on the other hand, is more accentuated in the Macau5 area (Profile 02). At Ponta do Tubarão, the tidal currents presented a preferential direction for NE, at times of flood, currents and for NW, at times of ebb current; at Barra do Corta-Cachorro the direction of the currents were predominantly for NW, independent of the tide phase, coinciding with the preferential direction of the longshore current. This currents inversion at Ponta do Tubarão is attributed to the presence of the Ponta do Tubarão island barrier and by the communication channel of the lagoon with the sea. The tide currents are better observed in protected areas, as in the Ponta do Tubarão, when they present inversion in their direction accordingly to the flood and ebb tide. In open areas, as in Barra do Corta-Cachorro, the tide currents are overprinted by the longshore currents. Sediment analysis does not show important modifications in grain size related to seasonality (dry- and rainy seasons). On the foreshore and backshore zones, the sediments vary from fine to medium sand, while in the shoreface they very from fine to very sands. The grains are mostly spheres, varying from sub rounded to sub angled. Quartz is the main component alongside Feldspat and heavy minerals as accessory components. Biogenic content is also present and mainly represented by mollusks fragments. The calculated sediment transport show values around 100 m3/day. The morphodynamic studies indicated that this is a reflexive area from October to April, and intermediate from May to September. The Relative Tide Range-RTR for this area is 4 < RTR < 15, and so classified in the mixed wave-tide group. Having this exposed we can affirm that the more active natural factors in this area are the currents, followed by the tides and the winds. The anthropic factors are exclusively local and punctual (Macau and Serra Oil Field). Taking in account the economic importance of the area, as well as the intensity of coastal processes acting on this shore, it is important a continuity of the monthly environmental monitoring looking for variations on longer-period cycles. These data have been stored on the geo-referenced database of the projects MARPETRO and PETRORISCO (REDE 05), aiming to model the coastal and sea environment, susceptible to oil spills and their derivatives